rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Carlton Banks]

Transaction volume is very clearly rising exponentially. Sooner or later prices will catch up.

Lets say that is true that transaction volume is rising exponentially, although the last year it is not clear... and 100% increase Y/Y for a game changing innovation is not a lot... (also lower highs for the last half year).

According to Peter R's interpretation of Metcalfe's Law, to support the historical 10x annual average growth in bitcoin prices, transaction volume needs to grow an average of 3.2x annually. We are not there yet - but the last 30 days might just resume the historical trend.

It's more likey that we could see an uptick in network transactions in response to this gradual erosion in support of a >$600 price, as there are now more ways to spend bitcoin than ever. Previous price slides didn't necessarily contribute to transaction volume as much as they could in this environment of more diverse retail acceptance, there will have been many speculators that had their BTC already in their exchange accounts, only to be transferred off-chain to someone who behaved the same as them (which, of course, adds zero to the network transaction volume).

While previous sell-offs could fit a profile of somewhere between 0 and 1.5 transactions for every individual divestment event, the present circumstances could be in the range of 2 and 5 transactions per divestment (to account for the greater number of parties involved in the event overall, i.e. seller > processor > merchant > broker > investor)

There's a suggestion that this is true in the figures; gross volume in dollars of transactions has declined, yet actual frequency of transactions is still in the 50K-70K/day range. A higher frequency of small value transactions than perhaps there's ever been.

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[rpietila]

Transaction volume is very clearly rising exponentially. Sooner or later prices will catch up.

Oh, it was only 1 year chart. Now I'm starting to believe..!

[serje]

I just made an instagram account for Malla Retreat!

Follow it for awesome(hopefully) pictures!

http://instagram.com/mallaretreat

[log2exp]

I just made an instagram account for Malla Retreat!

Follow it for awesome(hopefully) pictures!

http://instagram.com/mallaretreat

Thanks for the pictures, it sure looks like lots work need to be done for this place.

[fonsie]

Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...

[ensurance982]

Everything changed in mid-June.  The low volatility period has lead to more transactions.  The current regime is best represented by the period since June 24.

But why? Just because bitcoin has entered low volatility doesn't mean that it suddenly is ready to be treated and used as a currency any more than it has over the last months or years. To really matter, a period of low volatility needs to be longer! It's gotta be something different.
Do we actually know whether spam or automated transactions have gone back by now?

[JayJuanGee]

Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...

Probably almost better to tear it down and to start over; however, there are probably historical preservation laws that prohibit tearing it down...   So instead, you just have to replace all the old bricks with new ones... or polish up the old ones.. 

[heslo]

Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...

I'm a builder by trade and you've got no idea what you're talking about. I'd take something built back then over the shitty mass produced buildings we have these days. Sure, they didn't have a lot of the special materials (and knowledge) we have these days to fight things like salt damp, however they were built tough, were labours of love and have oodles of character. I applaud Risto on his plans with this place. It may seem daunting on the outset but in the end; if done right, it will be something amazing

[aminorex]

Just because bitcoin has entered low volatility doesn't mean that it suddenly is ready to be treated and used as a currency any more than it has over the last months or years.

I agree, but go further:  In the long run the volatility of the valuation of the account unit is irrelevant to the usability of BTC as a currency because you can lock the price, and this is subject to automation.  It is only relevant to the utility of the account unit as a store of value, because in a long-term hold, hedging costs accrue.

However, when price is failing to launch, holding becomes boring, and spending diverts the mind of many.  Moreover, people are vacationing now.  August is the most vacation-heavy month, and that is when the rewards of long labor tend to be burned for vanities.  Why do  we sell in May and go away?  Because of vacation season, and selling to pay for it.

[fonsie]

Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...

I'm a builder by trade and you've got no idea what you're talking about. I'd take something built back then over the shitty mass produced buildings we have these days. Sure, they didn't have a lot of the special materials (and knowledge) we have these days to fight things like salt damp, however they were built tough, were labours of love and have oodles of character. I applaud Risto on his plans with this place. It may seem daunting on the outset but in the end; if done right, it will be something amazing

Not sure where you live, but where I live, new buildings are A LOT better build than the old ones, regarding insulation, most old buildings have mistakes like concrete floors touching the outer walls, causing moisture problems and cold creeping in, because there's no seperation with insulation. New buildings also have no salt damp. Wooden constructions in the old homes, like the roofs, are all poorly done. The list is endless. And those old houses are probably high end in other parts of the world...

Regarding structural strength, the new buildings are build tougher.

So from my point of view, you don't know what you are talking about and I wouldn't hire you as a builder.

The fact that old buildings were made with love and character doesn't make them better or change the fact that Risto his castle is going to be a big money pitt, if he is going to restore it according to western europe standards. And in the end he will have to deal with problems he probably can't fix to keep it financially viable, wich he wouldn't have had with a new building. But Risto has enough money, so no problem there.

Thanks for your input, but to me it looks like a poor response from a poor builder.

[fonsie]

Indeed, although we need people like Risto to preserve old buildings that are of some culture significance.... I would naver have done it.

It's also not about how strong old buildings were built. But interior layout these days is also different than in the old days, giving additional costs to rearrange walls, etc.

But given plenty of money, there's no reason to doubt that this castle will look amazing.

FACT:

With the same amount of money, a new building would still be better, although it would lack the "castle" and "culture" themes.


Some people prefer nostalgia, me I prefer modern and comfort.

[JayJuanGee]

Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...

I'm a builder by trade and you've got no idea what you're talking about. I'd take something built back then over the shitty mass produced buildings we have these days. Sure, they didn't have a lot of the special materials (and knowledge) we have these days to fight things like salt damp, however they were built tough, were labours of love and have oodles of character. I applaud Risto on his plans with this place. It may seem daunting on the outset but in the end; if done right, it will be something amazing

Not sure where you live, but where I live, new buildings are A LOT better build than the old ones, regarding insulation, most old buildings have mistakes like concrete floors touching the outer walls, causing moisture problems and cold creeping in, because there's no seperation with insulation. New buildings also have no salt damp. Wooden constructions in the old homes, like the roofs, are all poorly done. The list is endless. And those old houses are probably high end in other parts of the world...

Regarding structural strength, the new buildings are build tougher.

So from my point of view, you don't know what you are talking about and I wouldn't hire you as a builder.

The fact that old buildings were made with love and character doesn't make them better or change the fact that Risto his castle is going to be a big money pitt, if he is going to restore it according to western europe standards. And in the end he will have to deal with problems he probably can't fix to keep it financially viable, wich he wouldn't have had with a new building. But Risto has enough money, so no problem there.

Thanks for your input, but to me it looks like a poor response from a poor builder.

That's true. In the past, there were also different buildings of different quality levels. The past high quality houses can be better then some ultra-cheap modular houses that we see nowadays, but current high quality buildings are better then past high quality buildings, and current low quality building are better then past low quality buildings.
I think that the main fun starts when rpietila will start dealing with local Estonian contractors. We'll be probably reading a lot of whining and self-pity then.

Dealing with the local contractors and also dealing with the local government officials.  There's gotta be some regulatory restrictions when we are dealing with historical landmarks.. which will likely cause building restrictions.

[fonsie]

Indeed, it's one big money pitt, once serious renovation starts you can see the money flowing away faster than bitcoin goes up, and most of the times those old buildings keep having moisture problems, because of bad work all those years ago. But hey, that's why it was so cheap to buy it in the first place...

I'm a builder by trade and you've got no idea what you're talking about. I'd take something built back then over the shitty mass produced buildings we have these days. Sure, they didn't have a lot of the special materials (and knowledge) we have these days to fight things like salt damp, however they were built tough, were labours of love and have oodles of character. I applaud Risto on his plans with this place. It may seem daunting on the outset but in the end; if done right, it will be something amazing

Not sure where you live, but where I live, new buildings are A LOT better build than the old ones, regarding insulation, most old buildings have mistakes like concrete floors touching the outer walls, causing moisture problems and cold creeping in, because there's no seperation with insulation. New buildings also have no salt damp. Wooden constructions in the old homes, like the roofs, are all poorly done. The list is endless. And those old houses are probably high end in other parts of the world...

Regarding structural strength, the new buildings are build tougher.

So from my point of view, you don't know what you are talking about and I wouldn't hire you as a builder.

The fact that old buildings were made with love and character doesn't make them better or change the fact that Risto his castle is going to be a big money pitt, if he is going to restore it according to western europe standards. And in the end he will have to deal with problems he probably can't fix to keep it financially viable, wich he wouldn't have had with a new building. But Risto has enough money, so no problem there.

Thanks for your input, but to me it looks like a poor response from a poor builder.

That's true. In the past, there were also different buildings of different quality levels. The past high quality houses can be better then some ultra-cheap modular houses that we see nowadays, but current high quality buildings are better then past high quality buildings, and current low quality building are better then past low quality buildings.
I think that the main fun starts when rpietila will start dealing with local Estonian contractors. We'll be probably reading a lot of whining and self-pity then.

Dealing with the local contractors and also dealing with the local government officials.  There's gotta be some regulatory restrictions when we are dealing with historical landmarks.. which will likely cause building restrictions.

Not only restrictions, but more headache and less BTC in your own pocket, but more fiat in their pocket.

[kehtolo]

I have found another castle for you rpietila!!

http://metro.co.uk/2014/08/08/this-cheap-1-2m-castle-in-scotland-will-cost-you-less-than-a-flat-in-london-4824671/

I think it also needs a bit of work.. but all the same. It's a nice castle! Perhaps supernode 2?

[Michael Jackson]

Welcome to the new business lounge. Wine and cigars are on the house.

The intention of this thread is to post analysis on short to medium term fiat/BTC price developments, scenarios, portfolio allocation, etc. what fits the topic. No double bottoms, ad hominem, trolling or low level comments. As usual, your post will be deleted if not conforming to guidelines above.

interesested about this . nice warn and real rules for all .
mature forum.

[AlexGR]

I was thinking that Ebola as a global pandemic = very bullish for BTC.

The Elite have always wanted to monitor money flows and Ebola, if it reaches worldwide scale, will give them the necessary excuse to ban cash (as one of an extensive list of "measures" to prevent virus spread).

So once cash is 100% digital, what is left to conduct transactions between individuals that do not want to use or do not have government money?

Bitcoins / cryptos (and gold/silver for physical transactions).

If we also contemplate consequences of a 30-60% population reduction (and how that affects BTC owners as well - removing BTCs from circulation for ever), BTC can explode.

[EuroTrash]

I was thinking that Ebola as a global pandemic = very bullish for BTC.

The Elite have always wanted to monitor money flows and Ebola, if it reaches worldwide scale, will give them the necessary excuse to ban cash (as one of an extensive list of "measures" to prevent virus spread).

So once cash is 100% digital, what is left to conduct transactions between individuals that do not want to use or do not have government money?

Bitcoins / cryptos (and gold/silver for physical transactions).

If we also contemplate consequences of a 30-60% population reduction (and how that affects BTC owners as well - removing BTCs from circulation for ever), BTC can explode.

That's an excellent point.

Or a sociopathically delusional one.
In case of a global Ebola outbreak, who gives a fuck about our little money experiment? Sound money will be weapons, ammo, canned food and medicines. The odds for survival in such a situation are more in favour of the most cruel and fittest men than in favour a bunch of bitcoin nerds like you and me, so pray your gods we will never have to witness such a catastrophic event in our lifetime.

[ssmc2]

I was thinking that Ebola as a global pandemic = very bullish for BTC.

The Elite have always wanted to monitor money flows and Ebola, if it reaches worldwide scale, will give them the necessary excuse to ban cash (as one of an extensive list of "measures" to prevent virus spread).

So once cash is 100% digital, what is left to conduct transactions between individuals that do not want to use or do not have government money?

Bitcoins / cryptos (and gold/silver for physical transactions).

If we also contemplate consequences of a 30-60% population reduction (and how that affects BTC owners as well - removing BTCs from circulation for ever), BTC can explode.

That's an excellent point.

Or a sociopathically delusional one.
In case of a global Ebola outbreak, who gives a fuck about our little money experiment? Sound money will be weapons, ammo, canned food and medicines. The odds for survival in such a situation are more in favour of the most cruel and fittest men than in favour a bunch of bitcoin nerds like you and me, so pray your gods we will never have to witness such a catastrophic event in our lifetime.

Uh yeah, this ^

I'm as long bitcoin as the lot of you, but you guys that think a major social or economic collapse will be some boon for BTC crack me up.

[ensurance982]

So, it seems SecondMarket hasn't bought coins for 3 months now, is that accurate? Could this be because everyone's waiting for a definitive direction we're going or maybe the summer where the markets supposedly hibernate?
(Sorry to disturb your castle-talk!)

[Equate]

I was thinking that Ebola as a global pandemic = very bullish for BTC.

The Elite have always wanted to monitor money flows and Ebola, if it reaches worldwide scale, will give them the necessary excuse to ban cash (as one of an extensive list of "measures" to prevent virus spread).

So once cash is 100% digital, what is left to conduct transactions between individuals that do not want to use or do not have government money?

Bitcoins / cryptos (and gold/silver for physical transactions).

If we also contemplate consequences of a 30-60% population reduction (and how that affects BTC owners as well - removing BTCs from circulation for ever), BTC can explode.

That's an excellent point.

Or a sociopathically delusional one.
In case of a global Ebola outbreak, who gives a fuck about our little money experiment? Sound money will be weapons, ammo, canned food and medicines. The odds for survival in such a situation are more in favour of the most cruel and fittest men than in favour a bunch of bitcoin nerds like you and me, so pray your gods we will never have to witness such a catastrophic event in our lifetime.

True and in any catastrophic event , common things required for sustaining life will be much valuable than any crypto.