rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

It will be >10k but not this year

Ya, he made that brilliant call back in 2011.

Gotta be honest though, it was definitely a level-headed, non-emotional data-driven prediction. Much like everything else that leaves his keyboard. /sarcasm

Ah, sorry to unignore you just for a moment to say that as you can check, my account is activated in 2012, so it is unlikely I would have made that brilliant call in 2011...

The most egregious prediction I actually have made, is the belief that Bitcoin would reach $300,000 by the end of 2013. Because I believed this myself, I went nearly all-in when the price was $100, and sold a few months later to buy a castle and other nice things. So I was wrong with the number but right on the timing.

This time I am right with the number but wrong with the timing. But I have patience. 

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[criptix]

It will be >10k but not this year

Ya, he made that brilliant call back in 2011.

Gotta be honest though, it was definitely a level-headed, non-emotional data-driven prediction. Much like everything else that leaves his keyboard. /sarcasm

Ah, sorry to unignore you just for a moment to say that as you can check, my account is activated in 2012, so it is unlikely I would have made that brilliant call in 2011...

The most egregious prediction I actually have made, is the belief that Bitcoin would reach $300,000 by the end of 2013. Because I believed this myself, I went nearly all-in when the price was $100, and sold a few months later to buy a castle and other nice things. So I was wrong with the number but right on the timing.

This time I am right with the number but wrong with the timing. But I have patience. 

we will get to 300.000$, sooner or later 

[fluffypony]

Is there any effort being put towards minimization of blockchain bloat, which seems the biggest issue?

No - we've discussed this on a number of occasions, and it's truly a non-issue until someone can prove to us that it is. The amount of hot air around this issue shows how poorly it's understood.

The first thing to remember is that all cryptocurrencies with "mixing" and other fluff in a bid for "anonymity" will end up with bloat. "But they can prune their blockchain!", I hear you say. Except that Bitcoin doesn't currently have the code in place to prune its blockchain or work off a pruned blockchain, and you can bet that some random altcoin developer doesn't have the technical chops to do this.

Consider, too, why this isn't "the biggest issue" for Bitcoin. Does Bitcoin's 20gb blockchain hamper adoption? No, because mostly everyone uses lightweight clients or web wallets.

The reality is that bandwidth and disk capacity is ever advancing, and there is little reason to think that Monero has a major issue if its blockchain ends up matching Bitcoin's and hits 110gb in 5 year's time. That having been said, there are definitely ways to trim on-disk usage, and we will look at doing this as time goes on. For the foreseeable future, though, this is a much lower priority than most things.

[ArticMine]

Is there any effort being put towards minimization of blockchain bloat, which seems the biggest issue?

No - we've discussed this on a number of occasions, and it's truly a non-issue until someone can prove to us that it is. The amount of hot air around this issue shows how poorly it's understood.

The first thing to remember is that all cryptocurrencies with "mixing" and other fluff in a bid for "anonymity" will end up with bloat. "But they can prune their blockchain!", I hear you say. Except that Bitcoin doesn't currently have the code in place to prune its blockchain or work off a pruned blockchain, and you can bet that some random altcoin developer doesn't have the technical chops to do this.

Consider, too, why this isn't "the biggest issue" for Bitcoin. Does Bitcoin's 20gb blockchain hamper adoption? No, because mostly everyone uses lightweight clients or web wallets.

The reality is that bandwidth and disk capacity is ever advancing, and there is little reason to think that Monero has a major issue if its blockchain ends up matching Bitcoin's and hits 110gb in 5 year's time. That having been said, there are definitely ways to trim on-disk usage, and we will look at doing this as time goes on. For the foreseeable future, though, this is a much lower priority than most things.

Blockchain bloat is a non issue as far as I am concerned. What is an issue with Bitcoin is the 1MB blocksize limit and the fear of bloat in the community regarding its change. As I mentioned earlier in this thread if this is not addressed it will cause problems. XMR (Monero) does not have the 1MB blocksize limit limitation.

Just for fun I calculated that it would have been possible to send 1 MB of data over the telegraph network back in 1913; however it would only have been affordable to someone with a net worth comparable to that of J. P. Morgan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._P._Morgan

[Biodom]

Is there any effort being put towards minimization of blockchain bloat, which seems the biggest issue?

No - we've discussed this on a number of occasions, and it's truly a non-issue until someone can prove to us that it is. The amount of hot air around this issue shows how poorly it's understood.

The first thing to remember is that all cryptocurrencies with "mixing" and other fluff in a bid for "anonymity" will end up with bloat. "But they can prune their blockchain!", I hear you say. Except that Bitcoin doesn't currently have the code in place to prune its blockchain or work off a pruned blockchain, and you can bet that some random altcoin developer doesn't have the technical chops to do this.

Consider, too, why this isn't "the biggest issue" for Bitcoin. Does Bitcoin's 20gb blockchain hamper adoption? No, because mostly everyone uses lightweight clients or web wallets.

The reality is that bandwidth and disk capacity is ever advancing, and there is little reason to think that Monero has a major issue if its blockchain ends up matching Bitcoin's and hits 110gb in 5 year's time. That having been said, there are definitely ways to trim on-disk usage, and we will look at doing this as time goes on. For the foreseeable future, though, this is a much lower priority than most things.

Blockchain bloat is a non issue as far as I am concerned. What is an issue with Bitcoin is the 1MB blocksize limit and the fear of bloat in the community regarding its change. As I mentioned earlier in this thread if this is not addressed it will cause problems. XMR (Monero) does not have the 1MB blocksize limit limitation.

Tell us more about Monero, please. I already got 3-4 times more XMR than BTC (in units, not in actual value), and would like to understand it better. Seems awesome on the surface, but will it ever grow beyond the current state? I am willing to risk a bit more on it, as it sounds quite appealing.

[Biodom]

Is there any effort being put towards minimization of blockchain bloat, which seems the biggest issue?

No - we've discussed this on a number of occasions, and it's truly a non-issue until someone can prove to us that it is. The amount of hot air around this issue shows how poorly it's understood.

The first thing to remember is that all cryptocurrencies with "mixing" and other fluff in a bid for "anonymity" will end up with bloat. "But they can prune their blockchain!", I hear you say. Except that Bitcoin doesn't currently have the code in place to prune its blockchain or work off a pruned blockchain, and you can bet that some random altcoin developer doesn't have the technical chops to do this.

Consider, too, why this isn't "the biggest issue" for Bitcoin. Does Bitcoin's 20gb blockchain hamper adoption? No, because mostly everyone uses lightweight clients or web wallets.

The reality is that bandwidth and disk capacity is ever advancing, and there is little reason to think that Monero has a major issue if its blockchain ends up matching Bitcoin's and hits 110gb in 5 year's time. That having been said, there are definitely ways to trim on-disk usage, and we will look at doing this as time goes on. For the foreseeable future, though, this is a much lower priority than most things.

Blockchain bloat is a non issue as far as I am concerned. What is an issue with Bitcoin is the 1MB blocksize limit and the fear of bloat in the community regarding its change. As I mentioned earlier in this thread if this is not addressed it will cause problems. XMR (Monero) does not have the 1MB blocksize limit limitation.

Tell us more about Monero, please. I already got 3-4 times more XMR than BTC (in units, not in actual value), and would like to understand it better. Seems awesome on the surface, but will it ever grow beyond the current state? I am willing to risk a bit more on it, as it sounds quite appealing.

alt coins are stupid as long term investments, they are pretty fun for the short term gambling addiction

they question is whether they could become Bitcoin 2.0 or Google/facebook vs Yahoo using the Internet analogy. Google was just a search prompt on a single page, but once you put something in that prompt, it was almost magical for that time (in speed and accuracy), hence they succeeded to become #1. I am not sure that it applies here, though.

[ArticMine]

...

Tell us more about Monero, please. I already got 3-4 times more XMR than BTC (in units, not in actual value), and would like to understand it better. Seems awesome on the surface, but will it ever grow beyond the current state? I am willing to risk a bit more on it, as it sounds quite appealing.

XMR (Monero) is currently the leading CryptoNote coin. Some of the primary advantages are privacy enforced by ring signatures.  This addresses issues such as blockchain analysis, tainted coins etc. Unlike XBT where blockchain analysis can be a real issue. The other big advantage in my books is adaptive limits (which particularly means no 1 MB blocksize limit). Monero also has a very strong and growing community, it is rare among alt-coins in that is has a very fair launch. This is important when many alt-coins are plagued by allegations of premine, instamine, ninjamine etc. It has a good chance of making it into the top five and even the top three in my opinion.

What I suggest for anyone interested in XMR is to spend time doing the research, understand the community, what coins are direct competitors etc. I would start with the threads on this forum, the CryptoNote site  etc.

Here are some links to get started
https://cryptonote.org/ CryptoNote site
http://www.monero.cc/ Monero site
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.0 Monero Announcement.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=624223.0 rpietila Altcoin Observer
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.0;all [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=700400.0  -> Monero Community Hall of Fame <- (Donations Thread)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=683365.0 Microsoft Windows wallet thread (As a GNU/Linux user, I have little use for this thread)
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=622708.0 Monero (XMR) Speculation thread
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.0 Monero Economy
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=721045.0 [XMR] Monero Community FAQ
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=652305.0 Monero Support

Edit: I will be adding more links that are relevant for research on XMR:
2014-08-14 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=740112.0;all Blowing the lid off the CryptoNote/Bytecoin scam (with the exception of Monero)

[JayJuanGee]

In perilous times, it's best to take out Bitcoin's best quotes again:

Bitcoin is going to disrupt every power structure there is in society today. It is going to end the say-so of the oil baron heirs of the 1800s, it is going to end the United States' economic dominance and its reserve currency, and it is going to streamline the economy to end many of the scale advantages that large corporations have held, decentralizing the entire worldwide economy.

Bitcoin is going to change society to a larger extent than the Internet. But this won't be obvious in 2013, or 2014, or even 2015. It is going to be felt in 2025, and obvious in 2035.

As I said before, no one really knows if the time has come when ‘mere agreement’ can serve as a foundation for value.  And as such, we don’t know if Bitcoin will succeed or not.  But if it does, as I claimed at the very beginning of this piece, it will herald a new age of human civilisation.  This was no hyperbole.  It will be the first time that a true currency has come into being on the basis of mere agreement only (Yap counts as a proof of concept only).  The implications of this accomplishment will be enormous.  It will represent the first genuine instance of emergent and de-centralised global self governance.  I can’t overstate how remarkable an achievement this will be.   It will open a Pandora’s Box of possibility.  We will have proved to ourselves that we can sustain a currency on the basis of mere agreement only.  We will have proved that we can govern ourselves directly.  Currency will just be the beginning.  We won’t want to stop there.

It is inevitable that a crypto-currency takes the place of government backed or commodity backed currency. It is the natural evolution of money onto the internet. Less friction, more anonymity, a free flow of value around the world. This will happen no matter how many roadblocks you place in front of it, just as the sharing of most of our assets in order to increase capacity utilization will happen as well. It is the path of least resistance.

Can you provide attributes for each of these quotes?  In other words, who made each and when and in what context (medium)?

[Wekkel]

I'm sorry. The quotes were saved over the years from various sources. Google a sentence and you may find the original author.

[Queeq]

Had to delete some oneliners. Keep it "Quality TA" you folks! 

Let me argue that quality doesn't mean quantity. Short posts that are capacious are much more easily to grasp. "Кpaткocть - cecтpa тaлaнтa".

No - we've discussed this on a number of occasions, and it's truly a non-issue until someone can prove to us that it is. The amount of hot air around this issue shows how poorly it's understood.

The first thing to remember is that all cryptocurrencies with "mixing" and other fluff in a bid for "anonymity" will end up with bloat. "But they can prune their blockchain!", I hear you say. Except that Bitcoin doesn't currently have the code in place to prune its blockchain or work off a pruned blockchain, and you can bet that some random altcoin developer doesn't have the technical chops to do this.

Consider, too, why this isn't "the biggest issue" for Bitcoin. Does Bitcoin's 20gb blockchain hamper adoption? No, because mostly everyone uses lightweight clients or web wallets.

The reality is that bandwidth and disk capacity is ever advancing, and there is little reason to think that Monero has a major issue if its blockchain ends up matching Bitcoin's and hits 110gb in 5 year's time. That having been said, there are definitely ways to trim on-disk usage, and we will look at doing this as time goes on. For the foreseeable future, though, this is a much lower priority than most things.

Yes, it may be poorly understood, but as I see it (based on analysis by Anonymint and others) the scalability could become an issue if blockchain would grow faster than bandwidth/disks advance. I am not aware of particular numbers and would be grateful if you could (once more) point them out.

The fact that "there is no code in place to prune blockchain" in other coins doesn't mean it is impossible and wouldn't be done. However it was said that blockchain pruning is not compatible with ring signatures. It is not judicious to solely count upon advancement of technology.

[rpietila]

At least historically, Ukraine's farmland has also been an important resource. The west needs it more than Russia, which has plenty of her own (compared to population trends). It was not my intention to draw a historical comparison to the 1930s but since it came to my mind, it must have come to yours also..

I don't know if anyone has noticed, but the farmland is being secured by the help of white phosphorus currently. Ceterum autem censeo, those pesky civilians, esse delendam.

[Phillis]

it looks like we may be at the bottom of all this. Support should hold at 500, but thats not a given.

[rpietila]

Based on the trendline analysis, this should be the bottom.

I called the bottom in 2014-2-25 at $382 (vwap: $481). Was too early, the actual bottom was in 2014-4-11 at $340 (vwap: $392).

Whether this one goes to $470 intraday (my target) or stays at $497, or goes even lower, is quite irrelevant. It is not a time to sell anyway, and I believe everyone who really believes in crypto is all-in in their crypto position.

Because Bitcoin is a black swan, it is good to always keep some wealth in other forms also, and I don't suggest people to abandon their risk management even if it goes lower. If Bitcoin turns up and continues its ascent, it makes little difference whether you have 10% more. If not, those 10% is all you have. This does not include only technical risks but all kinds of risks imaginable that might result in you losing the purchasing power of most or all of your Bitcoin position. The diversification should be in such an asset that is non-correlated to any of those risks.

I am trying to write a more conscise post to list all the indicators that point to the current bottom soon. I will, however, receive more guests in the castle in 3 hours, so if it's not ready then, it will be delayed a few days probably.

[bigtimespaghetti]

We still have to see if it holds 500. I'd really like some discounted purchases, I think 470 is a good target. 440 would be a fantastic opportunity to load up!

[rpietila]

I am calling the bottom.

[BuildTheFuture]

Transactions excluding popular addresses 7 day average is surging now, around 20% growth in past 4 weeks:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=2year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Looks like it is at the highest level now since December. Perhaps a similar setup to August 2013 when it also started to break out upwards and regain levels last seen in the April 2013 growth phase. Well, we'll see if it continues upwards into the end of the year...

[bclcjunkie]

Ukraine is just one of many sacrificial lambs to start the New age... This was planned for ages and NATO was born to make sure of that but Putin proved to be far more potent opponent in handling this crisis. The main prize is Russia with its vast natural resources. Nuke is the only thing that keeps these maniacs at bay..

Wealth is not based on the value of paper money but the resources of the country. Destruction of currency does not spell the end of the country as it can always be rebuilt, reprinted, revalued.

At least historically, Ukraine's farmland has also been an important resource. The west needs it more than Russia, which has plenty of her own (compared to population trends). It was not my intention to draw a historical comparison to the 1930s but since it came to my mind, it must have come to yours also..

I don't know if anyone has noticed, but the farmland is being secured by the help of white phosphorus currently. Ceterum autem censeo, those pesky civilians, esse delendam.

[RAJSALLIN]

Transactions excluding popular addresses 7 day average is surging now, around 20% growth in past 4 weeks:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=2year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Looks like it is at the highest level now since December. Perhaps a similar setup to August 2013 when it also started to break out upwards and regain levels last seen in the April 2013 growth phase. Well, we'll see if it continues upwards into the end of the year...

I'm looking more at this chart right now then the actual price. Anyone know why we had this sudden increase? Anything to do with the Ethereum IPO?

[kireinaha]

Transactions excluding popular addresses 7 day average is surging now, around 20% growth in past 4 weeks:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=2year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Looks like it is at the highest level now since December. Perhaps a similar setup to August 2013 when it also started to break out upwards and regain levels last seen in the April 2013 growth phase. Well, we'll see if it continues upwards into the end of the year...

I'm looking more at this chart right now then the actual price. Anyone know why we had this sudden increase? Anything to do with the Ethereum IPO?

Because people are moving their coins from cold storage to exchanges in order to sell. shouldn't that be obvious?

[RAJSALLIN]

Transactions excluding popular addresses 7 day average is surging now, around 20% growth in past 4 weeks:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=2year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Looks like it is at the highest level now since December. Perhaps a similar setup to August 2013 when it also started to break out upwards and regain levels last seen in the April 2013 growth phase. Well, we'll see if it continues upwards into the end of the year...

I'm looking more at this chart right now then the actual price. Anyone know why we had this sudden increase? Anything to do with the Ethereum IPO?

Because people are moving their coins from cold storage to exchanges in order to sell. shouldn't that be obvious?

The increase in transaction volume started well before this last leg down in price.