rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

Russians are very peaceful people, but they unlucky with their neighbors: all of them keep provoking them into  wars. That's how Russia become the biggest country in the world. Because of provocateur neighbors. The Finnish people are guilty of this too: you provoked them in 1939 to grab part of your country. You should be ashamed of it.

I don't know the truth about 1939, obviously as a Finn it is difficult for me to find out due to the official version being so ingrained since primary school.

But I am very ashamed of the current actions of our Prime Minister and many leading politicians, because during my conscious age, Russia has never provoked Finland, and always has acted very rationally and peacefully, trying to solidify good trade relations (that were lost with the fall of the Soviet Union). Now these foolish guardians of my motherland are seemingly trying hard to squander all this trust - developed over a generation - in one year, without getting anything in return. Well, themselves they receive a reward for sure, but the Finnish people receive suffering.

If you look at the last ~1000 years of history, there is a pattern of Russia and the western European monarchies using those countries that are geographically inbetween them as either cats paws or battlefields (I'm sure as a Finn you will be aware of the countless wars between Russia and Sweden, it could easily be interpreted as one long war by both against Finland itself). The issue was always something different, but is usually about as believable as so many attributed causes of wars.

Moderators have asked that the politics & society discussion would happen either in its own section, OR the Adam's Wall Observer, which is incurable. So let's abide by this from now on.

[Carlton Banks]

Concur, there was no TA/speculation angle to that post. I have a bit of a non-conformist tendency when it comes to strict topics, in fact I'm probably one of the worst for it on the forum. 

[Peter R]

Concur, there was no TA/speculation angle to that post. I have a bit of a non-conformist tendency when it comes to strict topics, in fact I'm probably one of the worst for it on the forum. 

Aww, but your off-topic posts are consistently interesting and well written! 

[Carlton Banks]

Concur, there was no TA/speculation angle to that post. I have a bit of a non-conformist tendency when it comes to strict topics, in fact I'm probably one of the worst for it on the forum. 

Aww, but your off-topic posts are consistently interesting and well written! 

Well, I am pleased that someone gets something out of them! But, the timing is bad right after we've had a chunky thread split off from a well recognised perma-thread. Perma-threads can tolerate slightly more OT posting without spoiling the tone, but the boundaries will be periodically broken and reasserted. Fear not, it's not the end of my wilful digressions, I'll find a new opening  (and I've got so little to add to the TA threads, it's all I have to offer)

[SlipperySlope]

Here is a two-year, 7-day moving average, log chart of the number of unique Bitcoin addresses used, which is provided by Blockchain.info. Note the growth in the most recent few weeks which confirms the growth in Bitcoin transaction quantity noted in a previous post. Metcalfe's Law would indicate higher bitcoin prices, unless this fundamental trend reverses. Metcalfe's Law, as interpreted by Peter R for Bitcoin, says that prices are related to the square of the number of participants, i.e. nodes in an economic network.
[image removed]

How are they actually calculating the number of unique Bitcoin addresses used? I mean, if a Bitcoin address has been used, it can't be unused. Or is it simply the number of addresses that have been used within those 7 days?

Blockchain.info does not plainly show their data gathering algorithm for this series, so I suppose that the answer is from the title of the chart. I would iterate over the set of daily bitcoin transactions and count the number of unique addresses taken from the inputs and outputs. The seven day moving average is taken over the daily counts and can be displayed according to a charting option which I chose. Alternatively the raw data shows daily counts that clearly have a day-of-week component.

Here is a link to the chart with its default linear scale and daily data . . .

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses

[rpietila]

Concur, there was no TA/speculation angle to that post. I have a bit of a non-conformist tendency when it comes to strict topics, in fact I'm probably one of the worst for it on the forum. 

Oh btw...

...are you even aware of the Happy donation thread? I gifted you 50 mBTC for your consistently high quality posting! Read more from my sig.

[Carlton Banks]

Concur, there was no TA/speculation angle to that post. I have a bit of a non-conformist tendency when it comes to strict topics, in fact I'm probably one of the worst for it on the forum. 

Oh btw...

...are you even aware of the Happy donation thread? I gifted you 50 mBTC for your consistently high quality posting! Read more from my sig.

I missed that thread... (ironically, I don't check into the off-topic sub  ) Reading up now

[Wary]

Russians are very peaceful people, but they unlucky with their neighbors: all of them keep provoking them into  wars. That's how Russia become the biggest country in the world. Because of provocateur neighbors. The Finnish people are guilty of this too: you provoked them in 1939 to grab part of your country. You should be ashamed of it.

I don't know the truth about 1939, obviously as a Finn it is difficult for me to find out due to the official version being so ingrained since primary school.

But I am very ashamed of the current actions of our Prime Minister and many leading politicians, because during my conscious age, Russia has never provoked Finland, and always has acted very rationally and peacefully, trying to solidify good trade relations (that were lost with the fall of the Soviet Union). Now these foolish guardians of my motherland are seemingly trying hard to squander all this trust - developed over a generation - in one year, without getting anything in return. Well, themselves they receive a reward for sure, but the Finnish people receive suffering.

If you look at the last ~1000 years of history, there is a pattern of Russia and the western European monarchies using those countries that are geographically inbetween them as either cats paws or battlefields (I'm sure as a Finn you will be aware of the countless wars between Russia and Sweden, it could easily be interpreted as one long war by both against Finland itself). The issue was always something different, but is usually about as believable as so many attributed causes of wars.

Moderators have asked that the politics & society discussion would happen either in its own section, OR the Adam's Wall Observer, which is incurable. So let's abide by this from now on.

OK

[giveBTCpls]

Look here's the problem im comfronting when I talk about Bitcoin to people:

1) They do not want to spend FIAT on it to access it. The see this as a waste of time, and they actually lose money due fee's.
2) They don't understand how something has volatile can be used as a currency.
3) People tend to hold BTC and use it as a store of value like Gold. They feel paying with BTC is as dumb as paying with a piece of Gold because anything you can buy with BTC, is available easier with cash/transaction.
4) They feel they are just serving the lucky early adopters while they get shit nothing.
5) The ATM machines are shit as demonstrated by the Tested video

How does that get solved so we can reach mass adoption? Unless legitimate jobs where you get paid good amounts of BTC arise, I dont see any other way to get legit amounts of BTC beyond risking FIAT into it in the first place. But of course, im not sure if people is going to want risking getting paid in BTC.

[pinky]

Look here's the problem im comfronting when I talk about Bitcoin to people:

1) They do not want to spend FIAT on it to access it. The see this as a waste of time, and they actually lose money due fee's.
2) They don't understand how something has volatile can be used as a currency.
3) People tend to hold BTC and use it as a store of value like Gold. They feel paying with BTC is as dumb as paying with a piece of Gold because anything you can buy with BTC, is available easier with cash/transaction.
4) They feel they are just serving the lucky early adopters while they get shit nothing.
5) The ATM machines are shit as demonstrated by the Tested video

How does that get solved so we can reach mass adoption? Unless legitimate jobs where you get paid good amounts of BTC arise, I dont see any other way to get legit amounts of BTC beyond risking FIAT into it in the first place. But of course, im not sure if people is going to want risking getting paid in BTC.

All this problems existed for every new technology (electricity, internet, cars,...). All your issues will get resolved, just give it time - engineers are working on this. BTC is really in the early stage, but you can see that VC money has started to finance companies that have ideas and will find the right solutions. You have great advantage of knowing what BTC and it's potential and maybe you will find some practical solution for it and monetize it.

As for payment in BTC - I am getting paid via Paypal and I am going to ask my employer if he would be willing to pay me in BTC. I am currently partly working as translator and in this bussiness you get paid mostly via Paypal. As employers will get to know BTC they will force every translator to use it - it will happen, because Paypal is just too expensive and margins in this highly competitive bussiness are very tiny and change is just a matter of time. Let's say there are 100.000 translators (my guestimate) being paid via paypal or some other service which takes 5-10% of your or employers profit away and competion is driving your price down. What will happen? And this is just one type of bussiness - there are millions of freelancers on this world.

[BTCtrader71]

Look here's the problem im comfronting when I talk about Bitcoin to people:

1) They do not want to spend FIAT on it to access it. The see this as a waste of time, and they actually lose money due fee's.
2) They don't understand how something has volatile can be used as a currency.
3) People tend to hold BTC and use it as a store of value like Gold. They feel paying with BTC is as dumb as paying with a piece of Gold because anything you can buy with BTC, is available easier with cash/transaction.
4) They feel they are just serving the lucky early adopters while they get shit nothing.
5) The ATM machines are shit as demonstrated by the Tested video

How does that get solved so we can reach mass adoption? Unless legitimate jobs where you get paid good amounts of BTC arise, I dont see any other way to get legit amounts of BTC beyond risking FIAT into it in the first place. But of course, im not sure if people is going to want risking getting paid in BTC.

Tell them that the next time they buy something from amazon, they can save 0.5 to 1% on their total purchase if they know how to use bitcoin. How can that be? - they will ask with doubt in their eyes. Simple: Bitcoin is an inherently superior technology compared to the current system, which allows credit cards to skim 3% or more off of every transaction. When you use bitcoin, the credit card doesn't get its 3% or more cut. That's why gyft.com is able to give you 3% reward when you buy an amazon gift card using bitcoin. (Compared to no reward when you use credit card.) And you don't have to worry about price volatility if you buy bitcoin at the same time (and therefore at the same price) that you spend it on the gift card.

Suppose you have a $100 and change purchase on amazon. Here's what you do, all within the span of 5 minutes or so (I've done this several times):
1. Go to gyft and set up a purchase for $100 gift card (you have to get it in increments of $5 or $10, I forget which). You will get a quote that it will cost X bitcoin (depending on the exchange rate; price is good for 15 minutes)
3. Buy exactly X bitcoin at the exchange of your choice. I use coinbase. Typically, it ends up costing 0.5 to 1 % more due to the spread -- i.e., it would cost around $100.5 or $101
3. Spend the X bitcoin on gyft for your amazon gift card.
4. Redeem your gift card on amazon at checkout using the serial number that gyft will provide. (You can do this pretty much instantly.)

Ta da! You will gain 3% reward on gyft.com, lose the 1% or whatever you get cash back from your credit card (I use discover which gives 1% reward), and lose 0.5 to 1% on the btc/usd price differential between coinbase and gyft, for a net gain 0.5 to 1%. The whole process currently takes me about 1-2 additional minutes at checkout and it gets faster the more I get accustomed to it.

Bonus #1: gyft sells gift cards for lots of places, not just amazon
Bonus #2: the above process is only going to get easier and cheaper with time, as the infrastructure around the bitcoin economy matures

[dnaleor]

Look here's the problem im comfronting when I talk about Bitcoin to people:

1) They do not want to spend FIAT on it to access it. The see this as a waste of time, and they actually lose money due fee's.
2) They don't understand how something has volatile can be used as a currency.
3) People tend to hold BTC and use it as a store of value like Gold. They feel paying with BTC is as dumb as paying with a piece of Gold because anything you can buy with BTC, is available easier with cash/transaction.
4) They feel they are just serving the lucky early adopters while they get shit nothing.
5) The ATM machines are shit as demonstrated by the Tested video

How does that get solved so we can reach mass adoption? Unless legitimate jobs where you get paid good amounts of BTC arise, I dont see any other way to get legit amounts of BTC beyond risking FIAT into it in the first place. But of course, im not sure if people is going to want risking getting paid in BTC.

Time will come where people will not going to want to be paid in FIAT, because by the time they arrive at the store, the value of their paycheck is halved...

[Its About Sharing]

Look here's the problem im comfronting when I talk about Bitcoin to people:

1) They do not want to spend FIAT on it to access it. The see this as a waste of time, and they actually lose money due fee's.
2) They don't understand how something has volatile can be used as a currency.
3) People tend to hold BTC and use it as a store of value like Gold. They feel paying with BTC is as dumb as paying with a piece of Gold because anything you can buy with BTC, is available easier with cash/transaction.
4) They feel they are just serving the lucky early adopters while they get shit nothing.
5) The ATM machines are shit as demonstrated by the Tested video

How does that get solved so we can reach mass adoption? Unless legitimate jobs where you get paid good amounts of BTC arise, I dont see any other way to get legit amounts of BTC beyond risking FIAT into it in the first place. But of course, im not sure if people is going to want risking getting paid in BTC.

1) They don't understand FIAT and how their wealth is being stolen. Each year their buying power goes down. They do not also understand BTC. If they understood money and BTC, they would look deeply in BTC. There is the whole inflation for war understanding as well.
2) Bitpay. But the reason for volatility is that we are finding the market. At this point I see BTC as an investment and a statement against corrupt governments and their money.
3) Sounds like they are missing the bigger picture. To each his own.
4) They are early adopters at this point. Only risk what you can.
5) Have not played with the ATM's but have heard mostly good things.

This process will play out, if you truly understand BTC you can probably easily answer the above questions, in depth of course. I was just giving short statements.
This is an experiment, as is government FIAT. Just make sure you yourself are not doing more harm than good because if you are asking the above question it
sounds like you really don't understand BTC and perhaps should not be a major spokesperson for it. I don't mean that in a bad way but stay within you abilities.

Its about sharing

[HarmonLi]

As this is Risto's quality TA thread, could we please analyze the crash that occurred last night? Do we have some TA to account for the reasons or do we know nothing about the reasons?

[dnaleor]

As this is Risto's quality TA thread, could we please analyze the crash that occurred last night? Do we have some TA to account for the reasons or do we know nothing about the reasons?

launch pad is clearly at 550 USD. Just waiting for the traders to come back from their holiday and some good anouncements: paypal/ebay adding bitcoin + COIN ETF approved by the SEC

[HarmonLi]

As this is Risto's quality TA thread, could we please analyze the crash that occurred last night? Do we have some TA to account for the reasons or do we know nothing about the reasons?

launch pad is clearly at 550 USD. Just waiting for the traders to come back from their holiday and some good anouncements: paypal/ebay adding bitcoin + COIN ETF approved by the SEC

That's a very optimistic sentiment. But what do you say happens if we see another big wave of selling and slide into the $530s or $520s. I guess a lot of long positions are going to get margin called then. And I'd hate to state what happens then....

[kireinaha]

As this is Risto's quality TA thread, could we please analyze the crash that occurred last night? Do we have some TA to account for the reasons or do we know nothing about the reasons?

launch pad is clearly at 550 USD. Just waiting for the traders to come back from their holiday and some good anouncements: paypal/ebay adding bitcoin + COIN ETF approved by the SEC

Delusional. Summer vacation lull is a myth, and this community puts way too much emphasis on the Twinklevoss ETF. Tell me why exactly investors will rush to buy in to an under performing asset just because it's packaged into an ETF? Everyone and their hairdresser is now aware of bitcoin... if they had wanted to invest in it, they would have invested in it. Clearly, the last 9 months are telling us something: they're not.

[blatchcorn]

As this is Risto's quality TA thread, could we please analyze the crash that occurred last night? Do we have some TA to account for the reasons or do we know nothing about the reasons?

launch pad is clearly at 550 USD. Just waiting for the traders to come back from their holiday and some good anouncements: paypal/ebay adding bitcoin + COIN ETF approved by the SEC

Delusional. Summer vacation lull is a myth, and this community puts way too much emphasis on the Twinklevoss ETF. Tell me why exactly investors will rush to buy in to an under performing asset just because it's packaged into an ETF? Everyone and their hairdresser is now aware of bitcoin... if they had wanted to invest in it, they would have invested in it. Clearly, the last 9 months are telling us something: they're not.

Some investors cannot invest in Bitcoin because of regulatory concerns.  The EFT enables huge amounts of money to be invested with no friction

[romneymoney]

As this is Risto's quality TA thread, could we please analyze the crash that occurred last night? Do we have some TA to account for the reasons or do we know nothing about the reasons?

I thought the winky guy in the thread title meant he was being sarcastic about this being a "Quality TA Thread"  
Anyway, even though I am terrible at TA, I will give it a shot.


Last time there was similar movement, a sharp drop was followed by the moon.  The preceding pattern recurred, but there has been a failure to have a sharp drop and launch this time.  I suspect a major reason is bearish sentiment and recent price drop is due to failure to launch over the last few weeks.  Unfortunately the latest drop was not enough to wake the bulls, it was nowhere near as significant as the pre-launch drop in the previous bubble.

I think the most bullish scenario would be a flash crash to around 400.. As long as we are steady inside the last bear trend there's nothing to encourage cheap coins or panic buying.

[molecular]

Look here's the problem im comfronting when I talk about Bitcoin to people:

1) They do not want to spend FIAT on it to access it. The see this as a waste of time, and they actually lose money due fee's.
2) They don't understand how something has volatile can be used as a currency.
3) People tend to hold BTC and use it as a store of value like Gold. They feel paying with BTC is as dumb as paying with a piece of Gold because anything you can buy with BTC, is available easier with cash/transaction.
4) They feel they are just serving the lucky early adopters while they get shit nothing.
5) The ATM machines are shit as demonstrated by the Tested video

How does that get solved so we can reach mass adoption? Unless legitimate jobs where you get paid good amounts of BTC arise, I dont see any other way to get legit amounts of BTC beyond risking FIAT into it in the first place. But of course, im not sure if people is going to want risking getting paid in BTC.

I think things like changetip - a love button for the interent have potential towards mass adoption.

I'll just keep tipping people on youtube, twitter, reddit,... it's the best we can do to spread the bitcoin love