rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[jnada]

... Simply, most of his predictions  have been fulfilled in real world, and honestly I feel myself bad founding his works so late.

If you ignore all of his price predictions
*But don't, they're hilarious.

This is what we have deal with within our community on every day basis.

From one side of view we meet a lot of expectations to become rich in a seconds. Others will notice long term speculations and adjust their expectations to market flow.

I like a way this guy is describing forces on the market. He may be wrong, but as much I read his posts it seems for me,  he knows where are the targets and vector directions.

[jnada]

[

He had like 100 prediction, all were wrong but 2.... most of you are new here around, so don't make me even mention the $ 300K coins that he "promised" noobs and the one million dollar coins he keep talking about...


Edit: and yes, I will leave this thread, it is just a cluster fuck of idiots and idiotic statements, I could not resist at first, but fuck it, I want to see you getting burned so bad now... you don't deserve my common sense around here.

Sir, it may be widely appreciated decision, personally I wish you enough strenght to fulfil your statement.

[sporket]

... Simply, most of his predictions  have been fulfilled in real world, and honestly I feel myself bad founding his works so late.

If you ignore all of his price predictions
*But don't, they're hilarious.

This is what we have deal with within our community on every day basis.

From one side of view we meet a lot of expectations to become rich in a seconds. Others will notice long term speculations and adjust their expectations to market flow.

I like a way this guy is describing forces on the market. He may be wrong, but as much I read his posts it seems for me,  he knows where are the targets and vector directions.

Not sure I understand.
I was told that a tree is known by its fruit, but you say it ain't so?  We should overlook the fact that rpietila's predictions are laughably wrong, as long as the theories which netted them sound nice?

[jnada]

 We should overlook the fact that rpietila's predictions are laughably wrong, as long as the theories which netted them sound nice?

There is a Time factor t in SU,

I can't judge  @rpietila predictions by your statements. Would you like to quote some of them, I mean this which you evoked?.

Many thank's!

[rpietila]

I would prefer to be remembered as a person who has been able to make good money on methodological investment, than by random quotes taken out of context.

Why?

Because the first thing is a hard, indisputable fact. The second is endless talk, and to do it justice, you would need to have lived through the times and could connect all the 5000+ posts, which you (or even I anymore) cannot do.

I am not writing a qur'an here. My words have a context, without which it's hard to understand and childish to criticize.

[sgbett]

...I am not writing a qur'an here. My words have a context, without which it's hard to understand and childish to criticize.

Perhaps you could remind me of the context for "rpietila Calling the Bottom" on August 15th?  Or your predictions that we'll see $300k USD coin by last Christmas?

Re. "not writing a qur'an":  But like arcane spiritual texts, your typings are totally open to interpretation, inaccessible to infidels, and not subject to laws of logic & math?

Perhaps he could or perhaps you could figure stuff out for yourself. Everything is open to interpretation.

I think you are in the wrong place. This is a place where we discuss things that *might* happen, whereas you clearly know exactly what *will* happen. So obviously you know to sell all your BTC right now if you have any, put your money in the bank, and never come back.

[600watt]

...I am not writing a qur'an here. My words have a context, without which it's hard to understand and childish to criticize.

Perhaps you could remind me of the context for "rpietila Calling the Bottom" on August 15th?  Or your predictions that we'll see $300k USD coin by last Christmas?

Re. "not writing a qur'an":  But like arcane spiritual texts, your typings are totally open to interpretation, inaccessible to infidels, and not subject to laws of logic & math?

Perhaps he could or perhaps you could figure stuff out for yourself. Everything is open to interpretation.

I think you are in the wrong place. This is a place where we discuss things that *might* happen, whereas you clearly know exactly what *will* happen. So obviously you know to sell all your BTC right now if you have any, put your money in the bank, and never come back.

chapeau ! 

[rpietila]

Self-moderated thread means that the OP is the admin.

Deletion means that your content is not needed.

Please help yourselves to the forum rules.

- Both are now banned from the thread. Any further posting will result in application to be banned from the forum. (I have about 85% hit rate in these so try your luck at your own risk.)

[windpath]

Anyone going to be at the US ETF conference today for the bitcoin presentation?

http://www.etf.com/inside-etfs-conference/agenda.html

[Chef Ramsay]

Dang, they went all out to bring in a top notch keynote speaker. Since most men really like football, having Bradshaw associated w/ this thing is a really smart business move on the Wink's part. It's one thing to have financial experts or banks being associated with bitcoin but to have a football legend on the squad is pure genius and should really land lots of credibility and interest for the common man once they get wind of this.

[wpalczynski]

That was awesome.  I've never seen anyone tell someone off in such an elegant way.

[

He had like 100 prediction, all were wrong but 2.... most of you are new here around, so don't make me even mention the $ 300K coins that he "promised" noobs and the one million dollar coins he keep talking about...


Edit: and yes, I will leave this thread, it is just a cluster fuck of idiots and idiotic statements, I could not resist at first, but fuck it, I want to see you getting burned so bad now... you don't deserve my common sense around here.

Sir, it may be widely appreciated decision, personally I wish you enough strenght to fulfil your statement.

[bobabouey2]

Dang, they went all out to bring in a top notch keynote speaker. Since most men really like football, having Bradshaw associated w/ this thing is a really smart business move on the Wink's part. It's one thing to have financial experts or banks being associated with bitcoin but to have a football legend on the squad is pure genius and should really land lots of credibility and interest for the common man once they get wind of this.

It was an ETF conference, Terry was there on behalf of the ETF conference generally, not Winkledoodles / Bitcoin.

[Chef Ramsay]

Dang, they went all out to bring in a top notch keynote speaker. Since most men really like football, having Bradshaw associated w/ this thing is a really smart business move on the Wink's part. It's one thing to have financial experts or banks being associated with bitcoin but to have a football legend on the squad is pure genius and should really land lots of credibility and interest for the common man once they get wind of this.

It was an ETF conference, Terry was there on behalf of the ETF conference generally, not Winkledoodles / Bitcoin.

Ah yes you're right but it still seems that this ETF talk was tying it into the Winks foray into the territory. So, while I was off a little it was nice to see Bradshaw on the panel and in this atmosphere while closely related to what the Winks are trying to do with Bitcoin.

[prophetx]

what are people's thoughts on mining difficulty futures contracts bound to difficulty changes as innate "oracles"?

I have a hunch it may be useful, but it's a difficult subject on why, when and who would bed on difficult going down.

[molecular]

what are people's thoughts on mining difficulty futures contracts bound to difficulty changes as innate "oracles"?

I have a hunch it may be useful, but it's a difficult subject on why, when and who would bed on difficult going down.

I've been involved in market making for difficulty futures on *aehm* bitfunder back in the days.

Difficulty was going up an average of 30% back then if I remember correctly.

The futures would be settled at a certain date (some time after the expected difficulty adjustment) and a price depending directly on difficulty (in a linear fashion). (Technically (to fit the bitfunder model) I was borrowing the assets (some trust involved, but mostly btc) from the issuer and was forced to buy back at settlement time (and for the price determined by the difficulty) the ones I had sold to the market and would get my collateral back from the issuer upon returning the "shares" I had borrowed.)

That way miners were able hedge against a high difficulty increase by buying these shares (futures) from me or other market makers.

I would issue them at a price chosen by me (also changing over time according to my expectations). That price was of course slightly higher than the difficulty increase expected by me (hedging comes at a cost and I must make some money for taking the risk). That way I made a moderate sum in case of a difficulty increase in the expected range, but took risk of a higher-than-expected increase from the buyers (hedgers).

So it was a win-win: I was getting a little income with relatively high probability and the miners were hedging the risk at tolerable cost.

The market made the price (there were other market makers and miners were also sometimes trading the futures they had bought previously, so we were competing on price and of course if the price was too high, hedgers weren't buying). Noone was betting on falling difficulty back then: an increase was almost certain.

Hope this answers your question.

;tldr: yes, difficulty futures are useful and offloading risk comes at a cost

[marcus_of_augustus]

what are people's thoughts on mining difficulty futures contracts bound to difficulty changes as innate "oracles"?

I have a hunch it may be useful, but it's a difficult subject on why, when and who would bed on difficult going down.

seems like it might be useful for miner's hedging long term purchasing decisions, etc.

Not sure why you would need oracles ... the difficulty is published every 2016 blocks in the most secure distributed ledger on the planet, the bitcoin blockchain. It seems like a good, simple to implement smart contract use case that relies on a universally verifiable input.

[rpietila]

Confirming that I'll be attending the Satoshi Roundtable. It is a private (and originally rather secretive) event but since it has a webpage and BCT thread now, I think it's ok to mention..

So if it happens that the other attendees have figured out the same as me and have come here already - or are coming a few days in advance - I am available for private meetings, fine dining, cigars and related activities

Current location is Paradisus Palma Real. Btw I can warmly recommend the place. This is in nearby Bavaro beach, about 20 minutes from the Punta Cana area where the conference hotel is located. (Hotels are pretty fully booked there for the next week.)

"Pics or did not happen!" - Soon coming

[sporket]

Confirming that I'll be attending the Satoshi Roundtable. It is a private (and originally rather secretive) event ...

Avoid saunas at all costs!
Breeding ground of thieves, spies and communist saboteurs...
O, that way madness lies; let me shun that; No more of that.

[cbeast]

Confirming that I'll be attending the Satoshi Roundtable. It is a private (and originally rather secretive) event ...

Avoid saunas at all costs!
Breeding ground of thieves, spies and communist saboteurs...
O, that way madness lies; let me shun that; No more of that.

At a sausage fest? That's the least worries.

[sporket]

Confirming that I'll be attending the Satoshi Roundtable. It is a private (and originally rather secretive) event ...

Avoid saunas at all costs!
Breeding ground of thieves, spies and communist saboteurs...
O, that way madness lies; let me shun that; No more of that.

At a sausage fest? That's the least worries.

Rpietila's (unencripted, with wallets on it) laptop allegedly got stolen from a sauna, where he was presiding over just such a sausagefest.
That's what set off his descent into totally-not-insanity & consequent institutionalization. 
He's, of course, totally all better ... now that the antipsychotics have worn off.