rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[hdbuck]

The sideways sort of rally on Huobi is about to touch the resistance trendline drawn from the November peak. Every other time this year the price could not convincingly penetrate that trendline.

Is this time different?

in the very near future it shall break it just by going sideways (like it just did for the last month). and then rally

[zimmah]

I predict a crash to $300-$350 in 7 days.

Based on the remarkable similarities in these 2 charts:

Double bottom at $2 in 2011.
Our progress so far in the bottoming process.

Somebody with more visual tools could clarify and present the case. I will have to explain:

2011:
- 3 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $4
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $2
- GREEN-RED-GREEN pattern in recovery
- another flashcrash to $2.

2014:
- 4 RED weeks ending with a flashcrash to $400
- 2 GREEN weeks recovery
- 4 RED weeks ending in a flashcrash to $340
- GREEN-2 REDS-GREEN pattern in recovery
- ?

(to be found out in 7 days.... )

I hope you're prediction is on target, Risto. I have one last large buy to conduct next week and some even cheaper coins would sweeten the pot. 

It is not a troll, it is something that I just found in the charts. Count for yourself. If the pattern continues one moor week, it means that there'll be a capitulation crash this week. And then 7 weeks of going up, all the way to $650.

So my prediction is 650 in the end of June. The crash is optional. The trolls in the other thread did not want to hear the real meaning (as usual).

Chart showing all.

I don't want to say you're wrong and I certainly don't think you're trolling, but I still think it's rather unlikely we will see sub-400 prices again. But if we see sub-400 prices they will definitly no last long and like you said, by the end of May we will most likely be at least 500 and probably even 600+

[SlipperySlope]

The number of transactions excluding popular (gambling dust) addresses chart continues to rally. This could be a confirmation that the bottom of the November 2013 bubble collapse is behind us. The last few months of this data series may now be impacted by the purported increasing portion of economic bitcoin transactions that are occurring off the blockchain, e.g. as immediate exchanges of value between Coinbase accounts.

[SlipperySlope]

Huobi is penetrating the resistance trendline drawn from the November 2013 peak with good volume. I would like this to continue into next week - going sideways is enough.

[ErisDiscordia]

The substitution of bitcoin for fiat will substitute the virtue of savings/prudent spending for the vice of dis-saving/immediate indulgence. Bitcoin as currency will profoundly impact on the world's economy and culture, e.g. no more ruinous boom and bust credit cycles.

This point can't be stressed enough.

I am quite firmly convinced that the (failing) global financial/governmental system can't and will not be improved upon unless there are major changes in the underlying cultural narratives which support said systems. We can try to elect the "right people" as much as we want to but providing systemic incentives encouraging prudent spending (spending means consuming resources!) has a much better chance at effecting positive change. This is one of my favorite things about Bitcoin and a point which the "let's regulate it and integrate it into the current system"-crowd seem to be overlooking.

[zimmah]

The substitution of bitcoin for fiat will substitute the virtue of savings/prudent spending for the vice of dis-saving/immediate indulgence. Bitcoin as currency will profoundly impact on the world's economy and culture, e.g. no more ruinous boom and bust credit cycles.

This point can't be stressed enough.

I am quite firmly convinced that the (failing) global financial/governmental system can't and will not be improved upon unless there are major changes in the underlying cultural narratives which support said systems. We can try to elect the "right people" as much as we want to but providing systemic incentives encouraging prudent spending (spending means consuming resources!) has a much better chance at effecting positive change. This is one of my favorite things about Bitcoin and a point which the "let's regulate it and integrate it into the current system"-crowd seem to be overlooking.

A change that drastic needs time. Bitcoin will give us the opportunity to drastically change our course, if the people are smart enough to want it and do it. I am actually worried about the masses not being smart enough to understand the situation we are currently in.

Either way, if bitcoin does catch on and does not dilute into another 'bitcoin backed' system like the gold repeatedly does (by slowly but surely moving away from gold into pure fiat) it could make us more aware of our spending behavior and our economy destroying our future.

They keep saying deflation or even stagnation is bad, but i'd say inflation is worse because inflation can only sustain itself if the economy itself also inflates at the same pace, and even than it'd lead to problems for individuals. The problem with an inflationary economy is that the world will run out of resources at an exponential rate as well and we're already overproducing and exhausting the planets resources. We wouldn't even have enough resources if we had 3 planets the size of earth to mine from.

[ErisDiscordia]

They keep saying deflation or even stagnation is bad, but i'd say inflation is worse because inflation can only sustain itself if the economy itself also inflates at the same pace, and even than it'd lead to problems for individuals. The problem with an inflationary economy is that the world will run out of resources at an exponential rate as well and we're already overproducing and exhausting the planets resources. We wouldn't even have enough resources if we had 3 planets the size of earth to mine from.

The inflationary monetary system has a built-in imperative for infinite growth - a requirement which seems preposterous on the face of it, because the system is located on a planet with clearly finite resources. I say change is clearly needed here.

I am actually worried about the masses not being smart enough to understand the situation we are currently in.

"The masses" (which seems to be this vaguely defined group with negative connotations into which scarcely anybody would put themselves) indeed often exhibit unintelligent behavior. I like to think that this is not because of some inherent stupidity of "the masses" but because of "the masses" simply act out incentives provided by the environment. Our current system favors instant consumption over deferred consumption (saving) by its inflationary nature as has been noted by SlipperySlope. The nice thing about Bitcoin is that it provides different sets of incentives which are in my opinion much closer to what is needed (a sustainable economy vs. this infinite growth oriented madness). If the value of their currency keeps generally increasing instead of decreasing (as is the case today), "the masses" will most likely spend more prudently and consider their spending more wisely - no great inherent intelligence needed.

A change that drastic needs time.

Yes, indeed. That is why I support the peaceful growth of decentralized alternatives and not a violently enforced centralized revolution It simply takes time for the "wisdom of the crowds" to arrive at optimal configurations for complex systems - but once they do, they are so much more efficient and enjoyable than their centrally enforced alternatives.

These potential cultural changes are still far into the future I reckon but I look forward to seeing them unfold!

[2017orso]

...

They keep saying deflation or even stagnation is bad, but i'd say inflation is worse because inflation can only sustain itself if the economy itself also inflates at the same pace, and even than it'd lead to problems for individuals. The problem with an inflationary economy is that the world will run out of resources at an exponential rate as well and we're already overproducing and exhausting the planets resources. We wouldn't even have enough resources if we had 3 planets the size of earth to mine from.

If we curtail the current state of economic affairs and financial practices, how are we to become the galactic virus the human species is destined to be...that is our destiny, TV tells me so.

Maybe bitcoin riches manifest into greater academic awareness  - basic personal finance, math and economics courses should be mandatory etc.  Presentation of the virtues of e-learning as practical and refined.

"The masses" learn by brainwashing.  Left unfettered they will seek it.  The louder message that seems to garner more powerful support wins for the most part.  So we basically need re-branding of the motives of consciousness?   

[ErisDiscordia]

 So we basically need re-branding of the motives of consciousness?  

Yes, that is a very good way of putting it. Ideally what we need is for each person to learn how to "program their own consciousness", or at least more programs to choose from.

The days of your mental operating system (culture, basically) being determined by where you happen to be born and what power elites happen to be in place during that time are over. At least they can be. Now we have the choice of individual personal responsibility in matters of culture and belief systems as provided by accessible distributed information networks and progressively more accessible means of travel. We should use this privilege. And with Bitcoin we finally can put the money where our mouth is and be free not only to believe what we wish, but also to implement it.

[MahaRamana]

...we're already overproducing...

made me think of this : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die

[AlexGR]

...we're already overproducing...

made me think of this : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die

The elite can't have everything... they try to expand the monetary base to recycle perpetual debt but they also have to keep general inflation low by using deflation and negative credit expansion for the average joe - otherwise stuff like gold and bitcoins would go through the roof. However when the average joe is "deflated" he can't buy much.

[F-bernanke]

...we're already overproducing...

made me think of this : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die

Yep, let the slaves produce shit they can never buy (without credit atleast), wasting time and natural resources.

[zimmah]

...we're already overproducing...

made me think of this : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die

As it is, there are more cars than there are people on the planet with an estimated 10 billion roadworthy cars in the world today.

You see, this is exactly what's wrong with inflationary economies. It's never enough.

We have more phones than people, we have more cars than people, we have more TVs than people. And even though there's enough for everyone, they rather let them rot and actively buy up land to park them and let them rust and even recycle them (without them ever being used) than to sell them at reduced prices or (the horror) give them away to people who can't afford them. Or maybe, you know, use the land for something like growing food or something.

And that all while exhausting the planet for the materials to build more and more, even though there is already not only enough for everyone, but too much. The only reason they keep on producing is because if they stop producing, the economy would collapse even further. How can you expect an economy to last if your economy requires you to produce 12 billion cars while there's only 7 billion people, and half of them can't even afford food?

At the same time they stop to build houses even though more and more young adults keep living at home because they can't afford their own houses because of the inflated house prices, just to keep the house prices inflated.

The world has gone mad.

[2017orso]

 So we basically need re-branding of the motives of consciousness?  

Yes, that is a very good way of putting it. Ideally what we need is for each person to learn how to "program their own consciousness", or at least more programs to choose from.

The days of your mental operating system (culture, basically) being determined by where you happen to be born and what power elites happen to be in place during that time are over. At least they can be. Now we have the choice of individual personal responsibility in matters of culture and belief systems as provided by accessible distributed information networks and progressively more accessible means of travel. We should use this privilege. And with Bitcoin we finally can put the money where our mouth is and be free not only to believe what we wish, but also to implement it.

Point was that's likely unrealistic.

More likely, I believe, bitcoin at mass adoption as utilized by the commoner will have transformed into a gradual step (Circle) in the evolution of financial frameworks, not a complete overhaul.

Meanwhile, the minority use (Darkwallet etc) will be a slower expanding niche as the global perspective slowly advances.

[snakebit]

...we're already overproducing...

made me think of this : http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/where-worlds-unsold-cars-go-die

As it is, there are more cars than there are people on the planet with an estimated 10 billion roadworthy cars in the world today.

You see, this is exactly what's wrong with inflationary economies. It's never enough.

We have more phones than people, we have more cars than people, we have more TVs than people. And even though there's enough for everyone, they rather let them rot and actively buy up land to park them and let them rust and even recycle them (without them ever being used) than to sell them at reduced prices or (the horror) give them away to people who can't afford them. Or maybe, you know, use the land for something like growing food or something.

And that all while exhausting the planet for the materials to build more and more, even though there is already not only enough for everyone, but too much. The only reason they keep on producing is because if they stop producing, the economy would collapse even further. How can you expect an economy to last if your economy requires you to produce 12 billion cars while there's only 7 billion people, and half of them can't even afford food?

At the same time they stop to build houses even though more and more young adults keep living at home because they can't afford their own houses because of the inflated house prices, just to keep the house prices inflated.

The world has gone mad.

Yep, this is just another case of the fact that we can't have perpetual growth on a planet with finite resources.

The infinite increasing growth and consumption model is the one that has been sold to us because the fiat-money-debt-ponzi on which the global economy has been built on necessitates it.

[nioc]

 So we basically need re-branding of the motives of consciousness?  

Yes, that is a very good way of putting it. Ideally what we need is for each person to learn how to "program their own consciousness", or at least more programs to choose from.

The days of your mental operating system (culture, basically) being determined by where you happen to be born and what power elites happen to be in place during that time are over. At least they can be. Now we have the choice of individual personal responsibility in matters of culture and belief systems as provided by accessible distributed information networks and progressively more accessible means of travel. We should use this privilege. And with Bitcoin we finally can put the money where our mouth is and be free not only to believe what we wish, but also to implement it.

The motives of our consciousness is our subconscious.  Our conscious is but the tip of the iceberg.  

[2017orso]

 So we basically need re-branding of the motives of consciousness?  

Yes, that is a very good way of putting it. Ideally what we need is for each person to learn how to "program their own consciousness", or at least more programs to choose from.

The days of your mental operating system (culture, basically) being determined by where you happen to be born and what power elites happen to be in place during that time are over. At least they can be. Now we have the choice of individual personal responsibility in matters of culture and belief systems as provided by accessible distributed information networks and progressively more accessible means of travel. We should use this privilege. And with Bitcoin we finally can put the money where our mouth is and be free not only to believe what we wish, but also to implement it.

The motives of our consciousness is our subconscious.  Our conscious is but the tip of the iceberg.  

I am aware...

used the term consciousness purposely- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness#Scientific_study

consciousness includes subconscious

[nioc]

If the link was supposed to define the term I missed it.

[Queeq]

Very interesting posts about inflationary economy.

Being gold deflationary, don't you think that if bitcoin gets mass adoption that we would be back to the economy of dark ages when gold was like a currency? Actually, I have almost no idea what am I speaking about, but comparing deflationary nature of bitcoin to gold that's what comes to mind.

[Trolololo]

Could the next rally be fuelled by people buying BTC instantly using their credit & debit cards, and not even knowing what a bitcoin really is, using services like Circle http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kgzu-QwzW3M?

Fasten your seatbelts...