rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[solex]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-18/bitcoin-auction-winner-draper-to-bid-again-in-december.html

Barry Silbert keen not to be outdone a 2nd time:

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/534759438906040320

I don't know where you get that Barry is keen not to be outdone.  He is not buying but setting up a "syndicate" like last time. 

It seems most everybody in his syndicate last time wanted to low ball and make a quick profit.  If this auction goes like the last one bidding market price will not win.  They may have learned from last time but being that the syndicate is made up of many buy orders it's not like any individual of the syndicate would have incentive to  buy over market because of slippage.

Does it make reputational sense to publicly come up with zero multiple times? Yes, they should learn from previously.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

...how would he describe this thing humans call "government"?

Give clueless aliens this link:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government



  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords.

I see you've migrated over to the Quality TA thread. It's so posh over here. Big comfy couches...

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

What happened when US ran out of gold?

Yes: they wage war and take it from Saddam, Gadhaffi, Ukraine and everywhere else there is some.

Maybe we don't want those crazies with big guns run out of bitcoins?

Loading tonnes and tonnes of gold onto cargo planes in the middle of the night headed straight to America. In retrospect, it seems sort of... unseemly?

[molecular]

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

What happened when US ran out of gold?

Yes: they wage war and take it from Saddam, Gadhaffi, Ukraine and everywhere else there is some.

Maybe we don't want those crazies with big guns run out of bitcoins?

Loading tonnes and tonnes of gold onto cargo planes in the middle of the night headed straight to America. In retrospect, it seems sort of... unseemly?

unseemly? surely you know the US is an extraordinary nation. Hence, they don't have to play by the rules. They have extraordinary privileges given by god. Since printing USD doesn't work so well any more, clearly they are entitled to taking other peoples gold. What I don't understand, though: since they're gods nation, why don't they just take the vast quantities of gold from the Vatican?

[Dabs]

What I don't understand, though: since they're gods nation, why don't they just take the vast quantities of gold from the Vatican?

That God is probably different from their god, even if they look the same. It's easier to take "bad" gold from "bad" countries than it is to take "good" gold from a "good" state.

[NotLambchop]

...Since printing USD doesn't work so well any more...

Working just fine.
USD doing great rel. all teh inferior backwater currencies, Bitcoin included.

[600watt]

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

What happened when US ran out of gold?

Yes: they wage war and take it from Saddam, Gadhaffi, Ukraine and everywhere else there is some.

Maybe we don't want those crazies with big guns run out of bitcoins?

Loading tonnes and tonnes of gold onto cargo planes in the middle of the night headed straight to America. In retrospect, it seems sort of... unseemly?

unseemly? surely you know the US is an extraordinary nation. Hence, they don't have to play by the rules. They have extraordinary privileges given by god. Since printing USD doesn't work so well any more, clearly they are entitled to taking other peoples gold. What I don't understand, though: since they're gods nation, why don't they just take the vast quantities of gold from the Vatican?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-18/ukraine-admits-its-gold-gone

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

Is it totally implausible that agents of a Central Bank could be quietly buying BTC and systematically dumping at a loss at precise times in order to suppress price?

Net losses would be negligible for that type of entity and might easily be swept under the rug in a context of monetary expansion.

[NotLambchop]

Is it totally implausible that agents of a Central Bank could be quietly buying BTC and systematically dumping at a loss at precise times in order to suppress price?
...

Implausible?  It's a scientifically proven fact.



  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords.

[AlexGR]

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

What happened when US ran out of gold?

Yes: they wage war and take it from Saddam, Gadhaffi, Ukraine and everywhere else there is some.

Maybe we don't want those crazies with big guns run out of bitcoins?

Loading tonnes and tonnes of gold onto cargo planes in the middle of the night headed straight to America. In retrospect, it seems sort of... unseemly?

unseemly? surely you know the US is an extraordinary nation. Hence, they don't have to play by the rules. They have extraordinary privileges given by god. Since printing USD doesn't work so well any more, clearly they are entitled to taking other peoples gold. What I don't understand, though: since they're gods nation, why don't they just take the vast quantities of gold from the Vatican?

What's the (unofficial) estimate for Vatican's gold reserves?

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

Is it totally implausible that agents of a Central Bank could be quietly buying BTC and systematically dumping at a loss at precise times in order to suppress price?

Net losses would be negligible for that type of entity and might easily be swept under the rug in a context of monetary expansion.

Yes it's impossible because : http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/bitcoins-shroud-of-subtlety-and-allure/

Only individuals can understand that Bitcoin is a threat to the institution they report to. And when they understand it the best strategy is just to "default" : minimize the risks to their superiors and move some of their personal wealth to Bitcoin.

The price is suppressed simply because right now there are less buyers than sellers.

Interesting article, thanks. But I don't think it shows the scenario I proposed was implausible. If successful, the argument establishes that Bitcoin cannot be destroyed by the proposed stratagem. Now I am not sure the argument is successful, since a CB has virtually infinitely
more buying power than its agents, should they chose to invest in the opposite direction of the policy they implement.

But in any case, the argument certainly does not show that the stratagem cannot be successfully implemented temporarily. Why would a CB implement the stratagem if it is thought that in the long run it will not be sufficient to kill the coin? Well, to achieve a temporary suppression of price, for whatever reason. Or as a part of a multi-pronged attack.

I used to think CBs would not touch Bitcoin (i.e., would not accumulate BTC as a hedge that would cost them essentially nothing) because to do so would counterproductively increase BTC's price and devalue the CB's currency vis à vis BTC. But in the proposed scenario CBs are not hedging accumulators, they are saboteuring dumpers.

Which seems to fit the market behavior we've been seeing for several months (whereas transaction data seems to indicate pressure on the buy side, contrary to your admittedly reasonable explanation).  

[79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX]

The directors of the FED understand perfectly well what Bitcoin is about. See for example pp. 10 ff. of:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac-20140513.pdf

[2dogs]

I work for a company that could be made completely irrelevant in case Bitcoin succeeds and they don't change their business. I tried to explain that to my managers. I failed miserably. What do you think I am doing now ? I keep my mouth shut and I accumulate Bitcoins slowly.

Thanks for that reassuring report.  

[macsga]

The directors of the FED understand perfectly well what Bitcoin is about. See for example pp. 10 ff. of:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fac-20140513.pdf

Yeah, sure :

Code:

Systemically, Bitcoin’s nascency makes it more curiosity than threat. Its greatest near-term
hazards are its avoidance of consumer protection measures and illicit use,

They completely miss the point.
The french "Banque de France" issued a similar document at around the same time with similar conclusions.

They're supposed to defy BTC in favour of fiat. That's what they do to make a living. Imagine you being in their position, or better, imagine someone having a rusty old car for 30 years and all of a sudden his neighbour rolls out a brand new Tesla. It's called "envy"...

[wachtwoord]

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

What happened when US ran out of gold?

Yes: they wage war and take it from Saddam, Gadhaffi, Ukraine and everywhere else there is some.

Maybe we don't want those crazies with big guns run out of bitcoins?

Loading tonnes and tonnes of gold onto cargo planes in the middle of the night headed straight to America. In retrospect, it seems sort of... unseemly?

unseemly? surely you know the US is an extraordinary nation. Hence, they don't have to play by the rules. They have extraordinary privileges given by god. Since printing USD doesn't work so well any more, clearly they are entitled to taking other peoples gold. What I don't understand, though: since they're gods nation, why don't they just take the vast quantities of gold from the Vatican?

What's the (unofficial) estimate for Vatican's gold reserves?

Does anyone have an order of magnitude estimate for this?

[NotLambchop]

Now that your previous reptilian pied piper has abandoned you to lord over his new crypto kingdom, We are here to offer you guidance.



  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords.

[Erdogan]

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

What happened when US ran out of gold?

Yes: they wage war and take it from Saddam, Gadhaffi, Ukraine and everywhere else there is some.

Maybe we don't want those crazies with big guns run out of bitcoins?

Loading tonnes and tonnes of gold onto cargo planes in the middle of the night headed straight to America. In retrospect, it seems sort of... unseemly?

unseemly? surely you know the US is an extraordinary nation. Hence, they don't have to play by the rules. They have extraordinary privileges given by god. Since printing USD doesn't work so well any more, clearly they are entitled to taking other peoples gold. What I don't understand, though: since they're gods nation, why don't they just take the vast quantities of gold from the Vatican?

What's the (unofficial) estimate for Vatican's gold reserves?

Does anyone have an order of magnitude estimate for this?

It is about one ounce per molested choirboy.

[cbeast]

It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

What happened when US ran out of gold?

Yes: they wage war and take it from Saddam, Gadhaffi, Ukraine and everywhere else there is some.

Maybe we don't want those crazies with big guns run out of bitcoins?

Loading tonnes and tonnes of gold onto cargo planes in the middle of the night headed straight to America. In retrospect, it seems sort of... unseemly?

unseemly? surely you know the US is an extraordinary nation. Hence, they don't have to play by the rules. They have extraordinary privileges given by god. Since printing USD doesn't work so well any more, clearly they are entitled to taking other peoples gold. What I don't understand, though: since they're gods nation, why don't they just take the vast quantities of gold from the Vatican?

What's the (unofficial) estimate for Vatican's gold reserves?

Does anyone have an order of magnitude estimate for this?

It is about one ounce per molested choirboy.

I was going to say about 6 million gold fillings, but yours was better.

[windpath]

"Maybe the largest unknown store of physical gold in the world is the Vatican Gold. For nearly two thousand years the church has been hoarding gold gained from wars and conquests in the name of God. Throughout the ages people have been shoveling vast amounts of gold into the collection trays every Sunday. The Vatican gold hoard is a closely guarded secret but I believe that it may be the largest collection in history if you take into account all the gold used in the artwork, crosses, trinkets, coins and cups owned by the church. The Vatican is all about privacy, secrecy and power and I guarantee you they know the true value of gold."

http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/181.cfm

[wachtwoord]

"Maybe the largest unknown store of physical gold in the world is the Vatican Gold. For nearly two thousand years the church has been hoarding gold gained from wars and conquests in the name of God. Throughout the ages people have been shoveling vast amounts of gold into the collection trays every Sunday. The Vatican gold hoard is a closely guarded secret but I believe that it may be the largest collection in history if you take into account all the gold used in the artwork, crosses, trinkets, coins and cups owned by the church. The Vatican is all about privacy, secrecy and power and I guarantee you they know the true value of gold."

http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/181.cfm

Didn't Italy have money problems?