[ANN][DASH] Dash (dash.org) | First Self-Funding Self-Governing Crypto Currency

[qwizzie]

<...>

Thanks for your advice @qwizzie! And I also appreciate the time you put into your post. For sure I will take actions based on my sole decisions, I take everything I read out there with a grain of salt.

As for the @thunderjet user, maybe his intentions are not bad, and maybe he is upset because of the price fall of Dash. As for the 17.67% ROI, I thought is a typo and he wanted to say 7.67%, I must have a look into this as it seems is actually 17.76, and to my shame didn't noted that ROI on binance.

Now I wonder why the ROI for 10 days is bigger than the ones for 30/60/90 days. Makes no sense to me., even tho the 10 days ROI is capped at 50 DASH.

I would advice you to contact Binance Support Center and have them inform you about the specific difference between Locked Savings & Locked Staking and
how they are able to offer such high ROI percentages. This is what i found so far :

Binance Support Center : https://www.binance.com/en/support-center

Locked Staking : https://www.binance.com/en/pos --> https://academy.binance.com/en/articles/what-is-staking
Locked Savings : https://www.binance.com/en/lending#lending-fixeddeposits (maybe Locked Savings is actually a form of crypto lending ?)

Below explains why certain duration options with Locked Savings are unavailable sometimes :

Subscriptions will close on a certain product once the maximum limit is reached.
Binance Savings will make adjustments to the types of supported assets, interest rates, individual limits and total subscription limits based on market conditions and our internal risk management.

Source : https://www.binance.com/en/support/articles/af64a497b040498f85c573baf4f24fcb-DASH-Added-to-Customizable-Locked-Savings-on-Binance

Also it may help to compare these Locked Savings & Locked Staking options between Dash and other supported Altcoins on Binance for yourself.
I have seen some pretty high ROI percentages for other Altcoins there too. Which makes me doubt the offered ROI on Binance has anything to do with masternodes.

Also i doubt that Binance use that collateral from users for trading in such a way, that it ends up hurting the Dash market or other Altcoins markets.
That would not be in Binance own best interest.

What could be in Binance own best interest : increasing their liquidity of a lot of Altcoins, attracting new users and making their own exchange more competitive in comparison with other
exchanges.

[afbitcoins]

2017: masternode count = 4700, paid roughly every 8 days, block reward say 6  per month (for sake of argument) = 6 DASH @ $1000 each

2017: hosting cost per month  = 0.02 dash at 20$

0.02 of a dash compared to 0.5 now! Hosting cost almost insignificant


I think toknormals point still stands about how the hosting costs do not rise with price (except for brief times at the bottom of long bear markets when the free market adjust dash so far down again that it once again meets parity). Dash will have a bull run again. Followed by extreme disparity in masternode profits compared to costs which will again pull dash all the way back down like a big heavy anchor.

There are easy adjustments that need to be made to keep the value in the chain.

Airdrops to masternode owners does NOT keep value in the chain

Except this isn't true. In 2015 you likely wouldn't need to spend more than $5/month for a cheap VPS

Ok, you may be right. I was trying to illustrate a point.

Being that:

 • hosting cost does not increase with Dash price
 • mining costs do

True, hosting costs don't increase with Dash price but they do and have increased as Dash masternodes need to provide more services. The release of Dash Platform will also increase hosting costs and as Dash Platform is adopted, hosting costs will likely have to continue to increase.

Now, let's just illustrate reality. Instead of 2015, let's use near end of 2016, which I contend matches up to where we find ourselves right now within Bitcoin's 4 year market cycle.

2016: masternode count = 4100, paid roughly every 7.38 days or just over 4 times a month, block reward = 1.8, total reward = 7.3 DASH @ $9.50 each
2020: masternode count = 5000, paid roughly every 9 days or 3.33 times a month, block reward = 1.44, total reward = 4.8 DASH @ $65 each

2016: hosting cost per month = slightly more than 0.5 DASH at roughly $5
2020: hosting cost per month = slightly less than 0.5 DASH at roughly $30

2016: net DASH per month = 6.8 DASH and 27880 DASH across all masternodes
2020: net DASH per month = 4.3 DASH and 21500 DASH across all masternodes

2016: total DASH = 6.95 million, 4.1 million in masternodes which is 59% of supply in masternodes
2020: total DASH = 9.80 million, 5.0 million in masternodes which is 51% of supply in masternodes

Ok, so let's check some of the things you said.

1) You said more DASH is at $0 base cost now than before. And even if I accept your argument that DASH masternode rewards are $0 cost base this is not true. Each masternode receives about 36% less DASH than it did roughly 4 years ago and the total that all masternodes receive is just under 23% less.
2) You said it's harder to create masternodes today because the supply is more fragmented. Yet we have 8% more supply that's not contained in masternodes that can be bought than roughly 4 years ago and can be bought at a cheaper rate with top coins BTC and ETH. From 2016 it seems masternode count added another 500 before DASH topped out in price around mid December 2017. From today starting with 8% less DASH tied up in masternodes, just to match the ratio 4 years ago, we'd need to add another 780 masternodes. Also, consider the supply increase that occurs as blocks are mined throughout 2021 and the real possibility that StakeHound is even moderately adopted. All that indicates to me that we have more than enough runway to add another 500-1000 masternodes.

As illustrated conditions leading up to the 2017 bull run seem to be in place for the 2021 bull run. Good luck and just remember this time to plan properly and take profit when you have a chance.

[toknormal]

This was the build up to the 2017 "pump" form the year before - steadily rising bottoms. (Even the earliest of which is above where we are now !).

Compare with the "build up" we have now (chart above).

There ain't no "saviour" pump headed our way.

[jdmcg]

As illustrated conditions leading up to the 2017 bull run seem to be in place for the 2021 bull run.

I think you maybe just trying to convince yourself that something that isn't viable somehow is.

The costs you cite are not even scaled with price. At $500 Dash, weekly margin over cost for a node is about 99% given a hosting cost of 30$ per month (which is already about 2 times what I pay).

That isn't sustainable. The conditions now are nothing like the conditions in 2017. We received a massive pump from hedging the impending bitcoin fork at that time. Bitcoin had never been forked before - there was no BCash or BSV. There were almost no stablecoins which are now prolific and efficient to be used as payment mediums. There were far fewer competing investable assets.

Additionally, the 2017 pump (in Satoshis at least) preceded bitcoin's big rise by around 10 months. So if you're looking for an echo of that one then this was it - we already had it and profits are now being taken:

So I see you didn't really debate any of the facts and figures I did present and so completely missed the point. Dash isn't $500 at least not yet. I'm talking about where we're at now. I repeat, many of the conditions that were present for Dash and other alts late 2016 are now here today.

Yes, Roger Ver and the camp that eventually forked BTC to create BCH was a huge catalyst for the initial Dash pump in Feb 2017. Perhaps the situation is not so different now, as BCH looks to now have another fork very soon after already suffering from the 1st fork which created BSV. Confidence and hash rate in the BCH camp continues to diminish. Not saying they will come back to Dash but BCH is no longer the strong competitor to Dash it once was.

In other posts I pointed to LTC as being a good indicator as it has been thru a full bear market already. Dash has not so you like many are completely surprised by how low it's gone especially vs BTC. But you only needed to look at LTC as an example. The 2 things to look for are LTC at 300000 satoshis and BTC at its previous ATH of $20K. Last time LTC was at 300000 satoshis and BTC was around $1K, the ATH before the last bull run, LTC went on a 7x run (around March 2017). Will it happen again so perfectly? Not likely but history does tend to repeat.

Your prediction: Dash goes to $6 (do you wish to take that back yet?) because you believe the masternode rewards are too high vs the costs of running a masternode... the same incentives which led Dash to a high above $1500 the last time.

My prediction: Dash's market cap will at some point double XMR's again and the individual coin price of Dash will be at least 5x of LTC again. Conservatively, BTC at $100K will put Dash around $3500 but likely higher before the bubble pops.

Markets move in cycles, from oversold to overbought. Oversold conditions lead to unbelievable deals and overbought conditions lead to the opportunity to realize unbelievable gains.

You're trying to convince everyone over and over again that for a coin, specifically Dash, where nothing has changed in its allocation schedule, that it will somehow be treated completely different than it was during the last bull run. Dollar-wise Dash is maintaining a much higher price than it ever was before the last bull run. That should tell you something.

I'm not really trying to convince anybody of anything except that the doom and gloom you predict is not demonstrated by Dash's price now or in the past. The rest of my posts are just fun speculation and predictions I like to make and are not meant as fact or financial advice.

[Pang.]

As illustrated conditions leading up to the 2017 bull run seem to be in place for the 2021 bull run.

I think you maybe just trying to convince yourself that something that isn't viable somehow is.

The costs you cite are not even scaled with price. At $500 Dash, weekly margin over cost for a node is about 99% given a hosting cost of 30$ per month (which is already about 2 times what I pay).

That isn't sustainable. The conditions now are nothing like the conditions in 2017. We received a massive pump from hedging the impending bitcoin fork at that time. Bitcoin had never been forked before - there was no BCash or BSV. There were almost no stablecoins which are now prolific and efficient to be used as payment mediums. There were far fewer competing investable assets.

Additionally, the 2017 pump (in Satoshis at least) preceded bitcoin's big rise by around 10 months. So if you're looking for an echo of that one then this was it - we already had it and profits are now being taken:

So I see you didn't really debate any of the facts and figures I did present and so completely missed the point. Dash isn't $500 at least not yet. I'm talking about where we're at now. I repeat, many of the conditions that were present for Dash and other alts late 2016 are now here today.

Yes, Roger Ver and the camp that eventually forked BTC to create BCH was a huge catalyst for the initial Dash pump in Feb 2017. Perhaps the situation is not so different now, as BCH looks to now have another fork very soon after already suffering from the 1st fork which created BSV. Confidence and hash rate in the BCH camp continues to diminish. Not saying they will come back to Dash but BCH is no longer the strong competitor to Dash it once was.

In other posts I pointed to LTC as being a good indicator as it has been thru a full bear market already. Dash has not so you like many are completely surprised by how low it's gone especially vs BTC. But you only needed to look at LTC as an example. The 2 things to look for are LTC at 300000 satoshis and BTC at its previous ATH of $20K. Last time LTC was at 300000 satoshis and BTC was around $1K, the ATH before the last bull run, LTC went on a 7x run (around March 2017). Will it happen again so perfectly? Not likely but history does tend to repeat.

Your prediction: Dash goes to $6 (do you wish to take that back yet?) because you believe the masternode rewards are too high vs the costs of running a masternode... the same incentives which led Dash to a high above $1500 the last time.

My prediction: Dash's market cap will at some point double XMR's again and the individual coin price of Dash will be at least 5x of LTC again. Conservatively, BTC at $100K will put Dash around $3500 but likely higher before the bubble pops.

Markets move in cycles, from oversold to overbought. Oversold conditions lead to unbelievable deals and overbought conditions lead to the opportunity to realize unbelievable gains.

You're trying to convince everyone over and over again that for a coin, specifically Dash, where nothing has changed in its allocation schedule, that it will somehow be treated completely different than it was during the last bull run. Dollar-wise Dash is maintaining a much higher price than it ever was before the last bull run. That should tell you something.

I'm not really trying to convince anybody of anything except that the doom and gloom you predict is not demonstrated by Dash's price now or in the past. The rest of my posts are just fun speculation and predictions I like to make and are not meant as fact or financial advice

In December 2017, as we all know, BTC touched $ 20,000 and Dash $ 1,600.

You argue that if BTC goes to $ 100,000 it would put Dash at $ 3,500, and that is not logical based on what we are seeing now.

BTC at 20,000 equals Dash at $ 1600, now we have BTC at $ 15,500 and they are equivalent to Dash at $ 70.

Being generous and imagining that Dash will see what BTC rises in the future ... something that it has not done for a long time, since it behaves much worse than BTC, if BTC makes 6.5X it is placed at $ 100,000 and that would give it to Dash if it follows the trail of BTC a price of $ 455.


But seeing the behavior of Dash against BTC, it would most likely be that with BTC at $ 100,000 we will have a Dash over $ 180 or $ 200 hopefully.

Forget about the past, this will not happen again.

In 2017 a lot of money came into crypto, and there were far fewer cryptos than now. Later, a lot of money was transferred to USDT and others to fiat, not to return to the crypto world.

Now no new capital is coming into these markets, and the little that comes in goes to new projects or directly to BTC and ETH.

We will never see Dash above $ 1000 again. For this to happen Dash should be made an essential and different currency, and today it is a clone currency of BTC or LTC with some improvements, but it does not make it different.

For example, ETH is different or IOTA is different and some others that exist in this universe.

I wish you are right, but all the indicators tell me that this will not happen.

I hope I am very wrong and that you are right, I tell you from my heart.

[toknormal]

Your prediction: Dash goes to $6 (do you wish to take that back yet?) because you believe the masternode rewards are too high vs the costs of running a masternode... the same incentives which led Dash to a high above $1500 the last time.

I don't see it.

I'm simply accounting for the value that goes into the market and what happens to it. None of what you write addresses this, yet we're forced to do it for bookkeeping purposes. We have revenue, therefore there's a cost. The question therefore arises of who bears that cost and where ? It doesn't matter whether the coins get sold or not, it's still the same bookkeeping cost impact because debits must equal credits.

So you're basically saying that 2+2 can equal 8. That Dash can take pure revenue from the chain at zero difficulty week after week and still expect its capital value to grow while all the other mined chains have to hash out every block. Do you realise how ludicrous that sounds to any serious new investor who sits down to do some due diligence appraisal of Dash as a long term investment ? Even our utility doesn't grow - not because we lack features but (ironically) because we're such a poor store of value.

At a price of $3500, masternodes are at a pure profit of $4500 per week - for performing no economic work. Margins like that simply get repriced into oblivion in no time which is what happened at the last ATH which lasted only a matter of days. Good luck in getting out inside that window the next time it comes around.

There's got to be some fundamentals of the coin economics that square for the thing to be investible. It isn't enough just to talk about market cycles because there's far more Peercoins and Bitshares out there then Litecoins and Moneros. If BCH blows up the natural successor is Litecoin, not Dash because we're talking about store of value not utility. The chain doesn't have to be useful to be a good store of value but it does have to be a good store of value to be investible. The only thing you have in that regard in the absence of mass adoption, is mining.

P.S.

You say Litecoin has completed a bear market cycle and Dash has yet to complete its. Well Litcoin is at 1/10th of its ATH against Bitcoin and never went below it. Dash is ALREADY at 1/27th. So we're getting kind of late in pulling out of the nosedive. We'd need to dig ourselves out of the ground first.

[jdmcg]

Your prediction: Dash goes to $6 (do you wish to take that back yet?) because you believe the masternode rewards are too high vs the costs of running a masternode... the same incentives which led Dash to a high above $1500 the last time.

I don't see it.

I'm simply accounting for the value that goes into the market and what happens to it. None of what you write addresses this, yet we're forced to do it for bookkeeping purposes. We have revenue, therefore there's a cost. The question therefore arises of who bears that cost and where ? It doesn't matter whether the coins get sold or not, it's still the same bookkeeping cost impact because debits must equal credits.

So you're basically saying that 2+2 can equal 8. That Dash can take pure revenue from the chain at zero difficulty week after week and still expect its capital value to grow while all the other mined chains have to hash out every block. Do you realise how ludicrous that sounds to any serious new investor who sits down to do some due diligence appraisal of Dash as a long term investment ? Even our utility doesn't grow - not because we lack features but (ironically) because we're such a poor store of value.

At a price of $3500, masternodes are at a pure profit of $4500 per week - for performing no economic work. Margins like that simply get repriced into oblivion in no time which is what happened at the last ATH which lasted only a matter of days. Good luck in getting out inside that window the next time it comes around.

There's got to be some fundamentals of the coin economics that square for the thing to be investible. It isn't enough just to talk about market cycles because there's far more Peercoins and Bitshares out there then Litecoins and Moneros. If BCH blows up the natural successor is Litecoin, not Dash because we're talking about store of value not utility. The chain doesn't have to be useful to be a good store of value but it does have to be a good store of value to be investible. The only thing you have in that regard in the absence of mass adoption, is mining.

P.S.

You say Litecoin has completed a bear market cycle and Dash has yet to complete its. Well Litcoin is at 1/10th of its ATH against Bitcoin and never went below it. Dash is ALREADY at 1/27th. So we're getting kind of late in pulling out of the nosedive. We'd need to dig ourselves out of the ground first.

You overstate the impact of masternode rewards vs the amount of money that will (and has now started) to flood the crypto markets. First BTC, then to the alts once BTC matches its previous ATH of $20K. BTC has done this twice now, I'm betting it will do it a 3rd time.

Now, let's look at PPC, XMR, LTC and Dash and use monthly (candle bodies, not wicks) highs and lows.

PPC: Nov-Dec 2013 = $9*, Dec 2016 = $0.16, Dec 2017-Feb 2018 = $4.42, Nov 2019 = $0.16
XMR:                                                           Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $330, Jan-Feb 2019 = $42
LTC: Nov-Dec 2013 = $41, Apr 2015 = $1.50, Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $230, Dec 2018-Jan 2019 = $29.70
DASH:                                                          Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $1021, Dec 2019-Jan 2020 = $40

* couldn't 100% verify the $9 for PPC as all exchanges that traded PPC back then are gone...

Many coins bottomed out beginning of 2019, Dash was roughly $66 then and is different in that it hit a new low beginning of 2020 at $40 before exploding to the upside over 3x almost alone among all the cryptos. Dash does have a habit of doing this, moreso than other cryptos. I do think the slowness of Dash hitting its low is because of the incentives for masternodes to hold longer therefore it took longer for capitulation.

I still find it ridiculous for you to compare DASH to PPC as PPC ceased all development for a number of years and yet still rallied to hit 50% of its previous ATH. So, it shouldn't be a stretch to think that absolute worst case scenario is Dash hits $500 on a closed monthly candle in the next bull run. But Dash has not ceased development, has a number of institutional investors involved, has more exposure than the majority of other alts and has this new thing called Dash Platform coming out.

Once the alts hit their bottom vs BTC, it is quite logical to expect alts to rally in a major way to the upside. It's happened twice now, what has substantially changed to stop it from happening the 3rd time? What will prevent money from being poured into Dash while at the same time it's being poured into LTC and XMR? And let's assume that LTC and XMR rally first, this is very possible... do you think those holders won't diversify into a cheap Dash if it hasn't rallied yet? When Dash first rallied in Feb 2017, you could buy 21 LTC for 1 Dash and 8 XMR for 1 Dash... with such a huge divergence in relative prices only a couple of things can happen, Dash price goes down to correct the ratio or LTC and XMR's price rises to correct the ratio. The latter happened because the bull market had started.

Dash's last rally at the beginning of this year occurred in the bear market, so Dash corrected to the downside.

Now, I've made this point before but it should be repeated. Mining is a clever way to create an arm's race to drive up number of competitors and it works to a certain extent until there are more options to acquire coin other than from a miner. XMR is almost fully mined, maybe already in tail emission for block rewards so I reject the notion that the few coins mined a month would drastically push up the price vs the coins put up for sale mined years ago for much less. Inflation rate has more effect on price. Dash's inflation is still high, if not the highest, among the top mined coins. The more new supply, the more new demand you need to offset that. You are not going to get that in a bear market.

On another note, PPC has started development again over the last year or so... I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $20 at least.

[toknormal]

I reject the notion that the few coins mined a month would drastically push up the price vs the coins put up for sale mined years ago for much less. Inflation rate has more effect on price.

Reject it all you like but the fact is it works because it preserves capital in the chain (both theoretically and demonstrably) rather than eating it away and it explains a lot of things that anecdotal observations of market cycles just don't. There's nothing wrong with inflation as long as the new supply is adequately capitalised. One the other hand, if you allow that supply to be mined at zero difficulty, the market is simply going to value it at zero difficulty.

With Dash, it isn't "a few coins a month" it's more than half of all the new supply. We have the inflation anyway whether we mine it or give it away, so why not subject it to competitive mining and give it a robust opening price ? How on earth does making that supply a free gift mitigate the effect of inflation more than having it mined ? It's effectively counterfeit as far as the mining archetype goes.

This is known economics not rocket science. The fine art market is very similar - if an artist starts giving away their work for nothing it simply collapses the value of all their works in the secondary market as well.

Dash has now given up ALL the satoshi gains it ever made. It's the only one of the mineable top 30 coins to have breached all historical support levels and is now on a more or less permanent downward path with a steepening gradient. We're back at the satoshi price that existed 4 months after its birth and Dash and Dogue are now decoupling from our mined former top 20 contemporaries in that respect. It isn't a "bear cycle" it's a death spiral and there are clear reasons for it which is that supporting the revenue of 5000 nodes at a near 100% profit margin is a COST believe it or not. That cost has to be paid from somewhere and right now its being paid straight out of the blockchain which is why it's continually losing value.

Your argument amounts to what I call the "washed up by the tide" theory of growth. The problem I have with that is that you're basically advocating for no more than an exit pump. Secondly, it doesn't matter what coin you're invested in - "washed up by the tide" isn't exclusive to Dash, you could pick any coin to be invested in.

[qwizzie]

toknormal and his 'facts'  

Be aware of people giving their personal opinion and presenting them as facts.
Not once, not twice .. but many times. That shows intent.

That is like certain people claiming a certain election has been 'stolen' and trying to present that as a fact,
without any evidence to back that up.

At one hand you have : Opinions, Assumptions, Theory, Misinformation, Lies.
On the other hand you have : Facts.



Understand the difference, it is important. Now more then ever.
Never let an opinion or assumption outweigh facts, like in above picture.

[jdmcg]

toknormal and his 'facts'  

Be aware of people giving their personal opinion and presenting them as facts.
Not once, not twice .. but many times. That shows intent.

That is like certain people claiming a certain election has been 'stolen' and trying to present that as a fact,
without any evidence to back that up.

At one hand you have : Opinions, Assumptions, Theory, Misinformation, Lies.
On the other hand you have : Facts.

Understand the difference, it is important. Now more then ever.
Never let an opinion or assumption outweigh facts, like in above picture.

Funny you should mention that... I distinctly had a thought that I might be debating a certain President... 

[afbitcoins]

Bitcoin versus Dash

Dash fallen below another line of support soon to test it as resistance. Red line on chart, just as happened with the black line before. Can dash break back above this time or will it be rejected ?

chart

Zoomed out version of the chart to show where red line comes from

chart

[afbitcoins]

It isn't a "bear cycle" it's a death spiral

This is a real possibility, wether we like it or not. Dash has no divine right to have another massive growth cycle. Particularly if it continues to make economic decisions that favour its own masternode community above all others rather than providing the crypto market what it wants. I have been down this road with other projects, (Cloak and OByte to name but two).

Dash might do a litecoin and fade away almost to the point of death only to manage to hang in there just. Litecoin managed it by being a testnet for segwit. Dash might manage it somehow under circumstances I don't forsee just now.

Or Dash might do a peercoin or an obyte or a cloak and fade away to complete obscurity. living as a penny stock kind of thing all but dead. Although qwizzie will still be here rallying the troops.

I was not aiming at those lowly possibilities. I thought dash would be challenging bitcoin as a store of value,  better payments, better privacy, better governance, self financed developement. Store of value was the achillies heel I didn't properly account for. Ryan Taylor's proposal to address store of value is a poor thought out joke. And if it isn't where is the big price pump anticipating it?

[thunderjet]

Your prediction: Dash goes to $6 (do you wish to take that back yet?) because you believe the masternode rewards are too high vs the costs of running a masternode... the same incentives which led Dash to a high above $1500 the last time.

I don't see it.

I'm simply accounting for the value that goes into the market and what happens to it. None of what you write addresses this, yet we're forced to do it for bookkeeping purposes. We have revenue, therefore there's a cost. The question therefore arises of who bears that cost and where ? It doesn't matter whether the coins get sold or not, it's still the same bookkeeping cost impact because debits must equal credits.

So you're basically saying that 2+2 can equal 8. That Dash can take pure revenue from the chain at zero difficulty week after week and still expect its capital value to grow while all the other mined chains have to hash out every block. Do you realise how ludicrous that sounds to any serious new investor who sits down to do some due diligence appraisal of Dash as a long term investment ? Even our utility doesn't grow - not because we lack features but (ironically) because we're such a poor store of value.

At a price of $3500, masternodes are at a pure profit of $4500 per week - for performing no economic work. Margins like that simply get repriced into oblivion in no time which is what happened at the last ATH which lasted only a matter of days. Good luck in getting out inside that window the next time it comes around.

There's got to be some fundamentals of the coin economics that square for the thing to be investible. It isn't enough just to talk about market cycles because there's far more Peercoins and Bitshares out there then Litecoins and Moneros. If BCH blows up the natural successor is Litecoin, not Dash because we're talking about store of value not utility. The chain doesn't have to be useful to be a good store of value but it does have to be a good store of value to be investible. The only thing you have in that regard in the absence of mass adoption, is mining.

P.S.

You say Litecoin has completed a bear market cycle and Dash has yet to complete its. Well Litcoin is at 1/10th of its ATH against Bitcoin and never went below it. Dash is ALREADY at 1/27th. So we're getting kind of late in pulling out of the nosedive. We'd need to dig ourselves out of the ground first.

You overstate the impact of masternode rewards vs the amount of money that will (and has now started) to flood the crypto markets. First BTC, then to the alts once BTC matches its previous ATH of $20K. BTC has done this twice now, I'm betting it will do it a 3rd time.

Now, let's look at PPC, XMR, LTC and Dash and use monthly (candle bodies, not wicks) highs and lows.

PPC: Nov-Dec 2013 = $9*, Dec 2016 = $0.16, Dec 2017-Feb 2018 = $4.42, Nov 2019 = $0.16
XMR:                                                           Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $330, Jan-Feb 2019 = $42
LTC: Nov-Dec 2013 = $41, Apr 2015 = $1.50, Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $230, Dec 2018-Jan 2019 = $29.70
DASH:                                                          Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $1021, Dec 2019-Jan 2020 = $40

* couldn't 100% verify the $9 for PPC as all exchanges that traded PPC back then are gone...

Many coins bottomed out beginning of 2019, Dash was roughly $66 then and is different in that it hit a new low beginning of 2020 at $40 before exploding to the upside over 3x almost alone among all the cryptos. Dash does have a habit of doing this, moreso than other cryptos. I do think the slowness of Dash hitting its low is because of the incentives for masternodes to hold longer therefore it took longer for capitulation.

I still find it ridiculous for you to compare DASH to PPC as PPC ceased all development for a number of years and yet still rallied to hit 50% of its previous ATH. So, it shouldn't be a stretch to think that absolute worst case scenario is Dash hits $500 on a closed monthly candle in the next bull run. But Dash has not ceased development, has a number of institutional investors involved, has more exposure than the majority of other alts and has this new thing called Dash Platform coming out.

Once the alts hit their bottom vs BTC, it is quite logical to expect alts to rally in a major way to the upside. It's happened twice now, what has substantially changed to stop it from happening the 3rd time? What will prevent money from being poured into Dash while at the same time it's being poured into LTC and XMR? And let's assume that LTC and XMR rally first, this is very possible... do you think those holders won't diversify into a cheap Dash if it hasn't rallied yet? When Dash first rallied in Feb 2017, you could buy 21 LTC for 1 Dash and 8 XMR for 1 Dash... with such a huge divergence in relative prices only a couple of things can happen, Dash price goes down to correct the ratio or LTC and XMR's price rises to correct the ratio. The latter happened because the bull market had started.

Dash's last rally at the beginning of this year occurred in the bear market, so Dash corrected to the downside.

Now, I've made this point before but it should be repeated. Mining is a clever way to create an arm's race to drive up number of competitors and it works to a certain extent until there are more options to acquire coin other than from a miner. XMR is almost fully mined, maybe already in tail emission for block rewards so I reject the notion that the few coins mined a month would drastically push up the price vs the coins put up for sale mined years ago for much less. Inflation rate has more effect on price. Dash's inflation is still high, if not the highest, among the top mined coins. The more new supply, the more new demand you need to offset that. You are not going to get that in a bear market.

On another note, PPC has started development again over the last year or so... I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $20 at least.

I think you are right that relatively soon after BTC comes close or crosses ATH,that money will start to diversify in other coins.But I disagree that it will happen like in 2017,because it is different situation on market today. When BTC reached $20K in late 2017, there were about $2 billions in crypto.Now it is almost $22 billions or 11x more.With BTC production cut to half,there is real chance that BTC will explode in next year and surpass $100K boundary.

What is different now is money distribution.2017 we had BTC on one side and all altcoins on the other side in more or less same situation.But now we had a situation that money is highly concentrated in only two blocks - BTC and ETH,which includes ETH and other coins and tokens based on it.That two blocks sucked almost all money invested in crypto.There is also much more institutional investors than it was in 2017,but theirs capital is also concentrated in just few coins - BTC,ETH,LTC,BCH,XRP,XLM.

So ,in 2017,all altcoins were in more or less same position and money distribution after BTC reached ATH, was also more or less equal.I dont think so that it will happened again,because capital is now concentrated in just few coins.Probably only few greatest altcoins will be pumped hard,while others will suffer small,so call exit pumps,propagated by big bagholders ,desperately trying to rid off of toxic assets.

Of course,few suprises are possible.What will happened with DASH?  Good is that DASH has a nice technical developpment,but it was accompanied with very bad decisions in its economics part which reflected on its price and generally very little demand for it.As you can see DASH Buy orders are almost empty and it is much bigger problem than its actual price.Buy orders are at 20x lesser level than in its rivals.Memecoin like DOGE has 60x bigger Buy orders than DASH !!

If you look at higher time frames,you can see that DASH behaviour is quite different from BTC or ETH.Both,BTC and ETH had obvious capitualtion,followed with very high volume.DASH had not,but it is slowly bleeding for 3 years,obviously caused by constant selling pressure of masternode free coins and very low demand,now in phase when almost 100% capital was drain off.

DASH wealth distribution is heavily concentrated,market is quite shallow and there is no enough demand - Buy orders to apsorb even a moderate dump.Obvious sign on DASH high centralization is 2017 bull run.From 4500 masternodes only 13% of it, sold coins during the pump when DASH value grew more than 100x. There is no investor who will miss such opportunity and in truly decentralized ownership we should see much bigger masternode coins sell off and later rebuy.

That pump was driven by people which holds vast majority of masternodes.These huge masternode owners already paid off theirs investments multiple times and  drained DASH to the last drop.They have no motive to risk theirs capital in making big pump again except greed.Empty Buy orders and almost every day ATL of DASH/BTC pair, are signs that they are not much interested in staying coin afloat.

Today, DASH is not in position like it was in 2017,when all altcoins were in almost same position.Chances to attract needed significant external capital after such poor performance and with tougher competition is quite low.As i said ,money is much more concentrated now than it was ever before,there is no interest of retail or institutional investors for DASH and mine opinion is that is more likely to see exit pump with flash crash.There are no chances for DASH without significant changes in DASH economy,especially between masternodes and miners,with huge reduction of masternodes reward(there are in no position to dump,because Buy orders are empty).Also there is little chance that they will do anything what would compromise theirs lofty positions.

With all its positive sides,DASH missed chance to become ETH true rival.

[Pang.]

Your prediction: Dash goes to $6 (do you wish to take that back yet?) because you believe the masternode rewards are too high vs the costs of running a masternode... the same incentives which led Dash to a high above $1500 the last time.

I don't see it.

I'm simply accounting for the value that goes into the market and what happens to it. None of what you write addresses this, yet we're forced to do it for bookkeeping purposes. We have revenue, therefore there's a cost. The question therefore arises of who bears that cost and where ? It doesn't matter whether the coins get sold or not, it's still the same bookkeeping cost impact because debits must equal credits.

So you're basically saying that 2+2 can equal 8. That Dash can take pure revenue from the chain at zero difficulty week after week and still expect its capital value to grow while all the other mined chains have to hash out every block. Do you realise how ludicrous that sounds to any serious new investor who sits down to do some due diligence appraisal of Dash as a long term investment ? Even our utility doesn't grow - not because we lack features but (ironically) because we're such a poor store of value.

At a price of $3500, masternodes are at a pure profit of $4500 per week - for performing no economic work. Margins like that simply get repriced into oblivion in no time which is what happened at the last ATH which lasted only a matter of days. Good luck in getting out inside that window the next time it comes around.

There's got to be some fundamentals of the coin economics that square for the thing to be investible. It isn't enough just to talk about market cycles because there's far more Peercoins and Bitshares out there then Litecoins and Moneros. If BCH blows up the natural successor is Litecoin, not Dash because we're talking about store of value not utility. The chain doesn't have to be useful to be a good store of value but it does have to be a good store of value to be investible. The only thing you have in that regard in the absence of mass adoption, is mining.

P.S.

You say Litecoin has completed a bear market cycle and Dash has yet to complete its. Well Litcoin is at 1/10th of its ATH against Bitcoin and never went below it. Dash is ALREADY at 1/27th. So we're getting kind of late in pulling out of the nosedive. We'd need to dig ourselves out of the ground first.

You overstate the impact of masternode rewards vs the amount of money that will (and has now started) to flood the crypto markets. First BTC, then to the alts once BTC matches its previous ATH of $20K. BTC has done this twice now, I'm betting it will do it a 3rd time.

Now, let's look at PPC, XMR, LTC and Dash and use monthly (candle bodies, not wicks) highs and lows.

PPC: Nov-Dec 2013 = $9*, Dec 2016 = $0.16, Dec 2017-Feb 2018 = $4.42, Nov 2019 = $0.16
XMR:                                                           Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $330, Jan-Feb 2019 = $42
LTC: Nov-Dec 2013 = $41, Apr 2015 = $1.50, Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $230, Dec 2018-Jan 2019 = $29.70
DASH:                                                          Dec 2017-Jan 2018 = $1021, Dec 2019-Jan 2020 = $40

* couldn't 100% verify the $9 for PPC as all exchanges that traded PPC back then are gone...

Many coins bottomed out beginning of 2019, Dash was roughly $66 then and is different in that it hit a new low beginning of 2020 at $40 before exploding to the upside over 3x almost alone among all the cryptos. Dash does have a habit of doing this, moreso than other cryptos. I do think the slowness of Dash hitting its low is because of the incentives for masternodes to hold longer therefore it took longer for capitulation.

I still find it ridiculous for you to compare DASH to PPC as PPC ceased all development for a number of years and yet still rallied to hit 50% of its previous ATH. So, it shouldn't be a stretch to think that absolute worst case scenario is Dash hits $500 on a closed monthly candle in the next bull run. But Dash has not ceased development, has a number of institutional investors involved, has more exposure than the majority of other alts and has this new thing called Dash Platform coming out.

Once the alts hit their bottom vs BTC, it is quite logical to expect alts to rally in a major way to the upside. It's happened twice now, what has substantially changed to stop it from happening the 3rd time? What will prevent money from being poured into Dash while at the same time it's being poured into LTC and XMR? And let's assume that LTC and XMR rally first, this is very possible... do you think those holders won't diversify into a cheap Dash if it hasn't rallied yet? When Dash first rallied in Feb 2017, you could buy 21 LTC for 1 Dash and 8 XMR for 1 Dash... with such a huge divergence in relative prices only a couple of things can happen, Dash price goes down to correct the ratio or LTC and XMR's price rises to correct the ratio. The latter happened because the bull market had started.

Dash's last rally at the beginning of this year occurred in the bear market, so Dash corrected to the downside.

Now, I've made this point before but it should be repeated. Mining is a clever way to create an arm's race to drive up number of competitors and it works to a certain extent until there are more options to acquire coin other than from a miner. XMR is almost fully mined, maybe already in tail emission for block rewards so I reject the notion that the few coins mined a month would drastically push up the price vs the coins put up for sale mined years ago for much less. Inflation rate has more effect on price. Dash's inflation is still high, if not the highest, among the top mined coins. The more new supply, the more new demand you need to offset that. You are not going to get that in a bear market.

On another note, PPC has started development again over the last year or so... I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $20 at least.

I think you are right that relatively soon after BTC comes close or crosses ATH,that money will start to diversify in other coins.But I disagree that it will happen like in 2017,because it is different situation on market today. When BTC reached $20K in late 2017, there were about $2 billions in crypto.Now it is almost $22 billions or 11x more.With BTC production cut to half,there is real chance that BTC will explode in next year and surpass $100K boundary.

What is different now is money distribution.2017 we had BTC on one side and all altcoins on the other side in more or less same situation.But now we had a situation that money is highly concentrated in only two blocks - BTC and ETH,which includes ETH and other coins and tokens based on it.That two blocks sucked almost all money invested in crypto.There is also much more institutional investors than it was in 2017,but theirs capital is also concentrated in just few coins - BTC,ETH,LTC,BCH,XRP,XLM.

So ,in 2017,all altcoins were in more or less same position and money distribution after BTC reached ATH, was also more or less equal.I dont think so that it will happened again,because capital is now concentrated in just few coins.Probably only few greatest altcoins will be pumped hard,while others will suffer small,so call exit pumps,propagated by big bagholders ,desperately trying to rid off of toxic assets.

Of course,few suprises are possible.What will happened with DASH?  Good is that DASH has a nice technical developpment,but it was accompanied with very bad decisions in its economics part which reflected on its price and generally very little demand for it.As you can see DASH Buy orders are almost empty and it is much bigger problem than its actual price.Buy orders are at 20x lesser level than in its rivals.Memecoin like DOGE has 60x bigger Buy orders than DASH !!

If you look at higher time frames,you can see that DASH behaviour is quite different from BTC or ETH.Both,BTC and ETH had obvious capitualtion,followed with very high volume.DASH had not,but it is slowly bleeding for 3 years,obviously caused by constant selling pressure of masternode free coins and very low demand,now in phase when almost 100% capital was drain off.

DASH wealth distribution is heavily concentrated,market is quite shallow and there is no enough demand - Buy orders to apsorb even a moderate dump.Obvious sign on DASH high centralization is 2017 bull run.From 4500 masternodes only 13% of it, sold coins during the pump when DASH value grew more than 100x. There is no investor who will miss such opportunity and in truly decentralized ownership we should see much bigger masternode coins sell off and later rebuy.

That pump was driven by people which holds vast majority of masternodes.These huge masternode owners already paid off theirs investments multiple times and  drained DASH to the last drop.They have no motive to risk theirs capital in making big pump again except greed.Empty Buy orders and almost every day ATL of DASH/BTC pair, are signs that they are not much interested in staying coin afloat.

Today, DASH is not in position like it was in 2017,when all altcoins were in almost same position.Chances to attract needed significant external capital after such poor performance and with tougher competition is quite low.As i said ,money is much more concentrated now than it was ever before,there is no interest of retail or institutional investors for DASH and mine opinion is that is more likely to see exit pump with flash crash.There are no chances for DASH without significant changes in DASH economy,especially between masternodes and miners,with huge reduction of masternodes reward(there are in no position to dump,because Buy orders are empty).Also there is little chance that they will do anything what would compromise theirs lofty positions.

With all its positive sides,DASH missed chance to become ETH true rival.

 
I see your correct approach.

Anyone outside this world who has 100M dollars willing to invest in crypto, what would encourage them to choose dash?


If it is only a means of payment, I will only buy it when I am going to use it, I do not need to have it in the long term.

If I analyze it as an investment, I do not see a return that exceeds the poor performance in these years compared to other options, especially against BTC.

If I analyze the development I see interesting things, but they do not provide any revolution that makes me intuit that the market will turn on Dash.

If simply all the money that has been used in financing garbage for years, had been dedicated to a DIF where it would have been invested in gold for example, I am sure that today 1 Dash would be very close to $ 1000, since there would be a very strong support based on these investments or similar ones.

However, we have dedicated ourselves to sending money to countries with great problems for years, all they have done is squander funds in very interesting talks but focused on people who do not want crypto in their pockets, they want dollars.

Give him 1000 Dash tomorrow to distribute in Venezuela or Nigeria among ordinary people and I assure you that in a week those Dash will be on exchanges exchanged for dollars.

The best thing about the price of Dash going down a lot is that the Dash Core will finally take off and leave the dome in the hands of people who give wings to a good functional product, but in this market the trains pass only once, and I think ours already passed a few years ago and we did not know how to take advantage of it.

I think it's time to look for new people with new ideas, the bear market excuse no longer works, especially with BTC so close to its ATH.

Greetings and good luck to all.

[jdmcg]

It isn't a "bear cycle" it's a death spiral

This is a real possibility, wether we like it or not. Dash has no divine right to have another massive growth cycle. Particularly if it continues to make economic decisions that favour its own masternode community above all others rather than providing the crypto market what it wants. I have been down this road with other projects, (Cloak and OByte to name but two).

Dash might do a litecoin and fade away almost to the point of death only to manage to hang in there just. Litecoin managed it by being a testnet for segwit. Dash might manage it somehow under circumstances I don't forsee just now.

Or Dash might do a peercoin or an obyte or a cloak and fade away to complete obscurity. living as a penny stock kind of thing all but dead. Although qwizzie will still be here rallying the troops.

I was not aiming at those lowly possibilities. I thought dash would be challenging bitcoin as a store of value,  better payments, better privacy, better governance, self financed developement. Store of value was the achillies heel I didn't properly account for. Ryan Taylor's proposal to address store of value is a poor thought out joke. And if it isn't where is the big price pump anticipating it?

Sure anything is possible, even a death spiral, but Cloakcoin and Obyte never came close to Dash's success. Did either of these actually develop something new and aren't they both effectively abandoned now? Wasn't Obyte a free airdrop to BTC holders? And did Cloakcoin's ATH even reach Dash's low in this bear market?

At least PPC developed something new and after being abandoned has a development team behind them again. You think Dash was abandoned?

Anyways, I've made my case, Dash will likely follow LTC's path (Feb-Mar 2017 and even now to a certain extent). Now we just wait to see. Place your bets by either buying, selling or holding...

And stop putting much of any weight on the whole store of value thing. Nothing has materially changed with Dash's allocation split between masternodes and miners since well back before the last bull market. This is the fact that no one has even attempted to explain away. If anything has changed, it's reduced inflation and less rewards to both masternodes and miners this time around which should act as positive on the price.

Just like so many people were still bullish mid 2018, so many people are now still bearish today. It takes a while to see what's going on. And yes only BTC and a handful of alts have really turned bullish recently. Give it time... the rest of the worthy alts will catch up in due time.

You actually think that if BTC is $100K, Dash would be $6 or even stay under $100? Why are you here then?

[qwizzie]

Why are you here then?

Lets not forget afbitcoins already sold a very large portion of his Dash. So he is not really all that invested in Dash anymore. I am not sure why he still feels a need to post so negatively about Dash,
when he is not significantly invested in Dash anymore.

As for me I have sold a big proportion of my dash. I'm still deciding how much of my portfolio to allocate to dash.

toknormal once again claiming that Dash price is in a death spiral is also not surprising, he went from wanting to hard fork Dash

Fork it.

I think DCG should just fork the code. One at 30% mining reward and the other at 70%. Then let the miners & market discover which priority is more valuable. It would be an amazing experiment and worthwhile because it would empirically prove one or other priority as viable with market endorsement.

to posting all kinds of negative crap about Dash on a daily basis : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg55476794#msg55476794

With regards to Dash price, does this look like a death spiral to anyone ?


Source : tradingview.com

Looks like a stabilized Dash price to me, a Dash price that has simply been moving sideways for awhile now. Dash low price volatility these last few months (as i shown before), seems to support that.
Link : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg55495441#msg55495441

There is no abandoning of Dash Core Group, just one person giving up his Marketing function within Dash Core Group, most likely because people were freaking out about the bear market and blaming it all on him,
thereby putting a lot of pressure on him. I don't think anyone else in charge of Marketing for Dash Core Group during this brutal multi-year Altcoins bear market, would have made any difference on
Dash current market position / price performance. There are just too many Altcoins now experiencing the same price performance as Dash, indicating a much larger Altcoins market trend moving in a certain
direction these last few years. It started early with Dash and it has reached other Altcoins now too. Only a few Altcoins are still doing relatively well (Ethereum & Monero), one of which in my opinion is
turning bearish (if not bearish already) as we speak.  

Dash is on the verge of introducing a whole set of new use cases, with the upcoming Dash Platform & DashPay release (Mainnet release scheduled for Q1, 2021).
Link : https://cointelegraph.com/news/dash-is-evolving-into-a-decentralized-cloud-cryptocurrency

That is something to keep in mind.

[afbitcoins]

With regards to Dash price, does this look like a death spiral to anyone ?

It looks like a classic bubble

Lets not forget afbitcoins already sold a very large portion of his Dash. So he is not really all that invested in Dash anymore. I am not sure why he still feels a need to post so negatively about Dash,
when he is not significantly invested in Dash anymore.

A) I don't post negatively about Dash. I will post negatively about Ryan's proposal to improve store of value. There is a huge difference. Find some other aspect of Dash other than this proposal that I post negatively about, theres a challenge for you.  
The portion of my Dash I still have invested bears no significance in what or where I choose to post.

B) Also your entire point has nothing to do with anything I argue instead designed to discredit me in someway. You punch below the belt wormtongue

[afbitcoins]

Sure anything is possible, even a death spiral, but Cloakcoin and Obyte never came close to Dash's success. Did either of these actually develop something new and aren't they both effectively abandoned now? Wasn't Obyte a free airdrop to BTC holders? And did Cloakcoin's ATH even reach Dash's low in this bear market?

Cloakcoin didn't match the success of darkcoin but came at a similar time. It was a proof of stake coin. You might say another example of proof of stake failing to store value. OByte was a rival to iota and top 20 at one point. Iota still top 30 roughly. OByte dropped out the top 200 last time I looked. Both DAG instead of blockchain. Byteball had really good features that were ready to use. Some of its supply was airdrop to bitcoin holders. The developers then played god and started chopping and changing the rules about who would receive and when. They thought they would attract more investors that way, cheered on by the community. The coin all but died. A warning that what seems good to the community and devs might not be.

The point of similarity  with OByte as I am experiencing it, is the way the community refuse to acknowledge problems exist even as the coin drops ever lower in ranking.

At least PPC developed something new and after being abandoned has a development team behind them again. You think Dash was abandoned?

I think Dash abandoned? No! I never said or hinted at that. You making shit up here. Peercoin being abandoned came after its fall to insignificance not before I would guess. I dont' follow peercoin. But even with new developers it will still have a flawed economic model I presume. Therefore it won't attract value. Dash can masquerade as a full proof of work coin, and might get away with it to an extent and do a litecoin. I hope so because that is better than spiral of death. Its not what I aimed for.

Anyways, I've made my case, Dash will likely follow LTC's path (Feb-Mar 2017 and even now to a certain extent). Now we just wait to see. Place your bets by either buying, selling or holding...

And stop putting much of any weight on the whole store of value thing. Nothing has materially changed with Dash's allocation split between masternodes and miners since well back before the last bull market. This is the fact that no one has even attempted to explain away. If anything has changed, it's reduced inflation and less rewards to both masternodes and miners this time around which should act as positive on the price.

No one has tried to explain! For real?  OK I'll try to explain (again) In those days the effect of the reward split being too heavy for masternode owners was hidden because the masternode network was growing. It was then hidden by large speculative moves hedging the bitcoin /bcash fork with Dash. That does not mean it wasn't there.  If Ryans proposal will help why is there not investors front running it? Today we can't count on masternode growing, it is already high. We can't count on a bitcoin fork helping dash to that extent. We can only hope suddenly the market falls in love with dash platform and nice usernames, assuming those do come along. Or some other unforseen event. Dash has payments. It needs value.

Just like so many people were still bullish mid 2018, so many people are now still bearish today. It takes a while to see what's going on. And yes only BTC and a handful of alts have really turned bullish recently. Give it time... the rest of the worthy alts will catch up in due time.

You actually think that if BTC is $100K, Dash would be $6 or even stay under $100? Why are you here then?

I have always said Dash will have a bull market against fiat. (Fiat is heading for oblivion potentially) Against other POW crypto projects dash suffers because the reward split leaks value away from the chain. There are many competing projects, hundreds. To be selected as one of the top ones, Dash can't afford to airdrop too much supply away to holders at zero cost to produce. This hurts dash store of value.

I do not attach too much importance to store of value. It is critical. Unless Dash is not to be sound money but just throwaway tokens used for exchange only. That doesn't interest me.

[afbitcoins]

Dash versus bitcoin update

chart

Not looking good so far. Failed first test of resistance at the red trendline. It looks possible or likely dash will fall further versus bitcoin.

Not trading advice just opinion.

[afbitcoins]

Incidentally there has been some interesting ideas discussed on the economics channel of Tao of Satoshi's dash nation. The idea being proposed at some length is for Dash Investment Foundation to start aggressively buying gold and bitcoin. Basically as much as it can.

When Dash ends up with a huge reserve (just as central banks do) this would be held offchain but  still support the value of dash. It would create an ever growing floor to the price that dash can fall to.

I am interested in any thought toknormal might have on this