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jl2012 (OP)
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June 01, 2017, 09:00:39 AM |
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As predicted, we had some support around -0.5. Today is over -0.5 again. The next major resistance is -0.25 at $2956, then 0 at $3796.
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79b79aa8d5047da6d3XX
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Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
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June 12, 2017, 01:12:42 PM |
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The next major resistance is -0.25 at $2956
check
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DieJohnny
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June 22, 2017, 01:57:08 AM |
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Date: 11-Jun-2017 BETI: -0.295 VWAP: 2911.89 x: 2521 a: 0.00333 b: -0.13332 Rsq: 0.80788 The day's expected price: 3912.45 Actual price / expected price: 74.43% Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 421.22 Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 25328.64 Predicted date for today's price: 14-Mar-2017 Days ahead: -88.59 Daily price rank: 1 (See OP for explanation) Tracking above the exponential trend line hasn't happened for years, but i think we actually break above trend for a few weeks in the coming months, then pull back before having a huge run up to a record high above trend deviation of +2.0.... within a year. https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00333408979094182++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.133322254723592+%29
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Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
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DieJohnny
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June 22, 2017, 02:02:04 AM |
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Yes, thank you jl2012 for one of the very best and helpful (long-term context providing) threads on this board.
You used to update a graph (as per OP) that, apart from price and regression line, showed the expected price of any day based on the best regression line up to that day. I thought that interesting. If you get the time and inclination, could you perhaps update it again at some point?
TIA
Please see last page. This chart doesn't need to update every day as it makes very small difference Thanks - I was thinking of your "series2" red line which doesn't seem to have been updated for over three years. I appreciate that it barely murmurs on a daily or even monthly basis, but it does record the changes in the implied angle or 'aim' of the best-fit line and with it the acreage of our fantasy islands. For an example (of the fun to be had) I still have a bookmark (which I think is from your work, a then best-fit that now needs the crotch taking in a bit): https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+(+0.006044++(+number+of+days+since+jul+17,+2010+%2Fdays+)+-1.82447+) Oh how I dreamed of today back then! You want this? I don't think it's very useful but anyway Something seems wrong with your chart here. According to the OP chart the third bump doesn't break the exponential trend line, but in this case it does. What am I missing?
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Those who hold and those who are without property have ever formed distinct interests in society
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spiderbrain
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August 08, 2017, 11:25:41 AM |
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Any chance of an update? Love your work
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jl2012 (OP)
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August 11, 2017, 07:07:15 PM |
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jl2012 (OP)
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August 11, 2017, 07:16:37 PM |
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If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
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600watt
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August 11, 2017, 08:07:08 PM |
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If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
why is it that I start to salivate when I read your posts of this thread... will use BETI to find out when to sell @next peak. please keep updating more regular.... this is great, thanks. I will donate!
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xxnewbiecoinerxx
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August 12, 2017, 03:00:04 PM |
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If you like this, please consider donating to 1GdBAuFihJVxypysnkF7jKwcKAoAn8dbvg
Although we have an USD ATH, BETI is still under -0.25.
Today, a 0 BETI means $4561.38. Still $1000 to go.
why is it that I start to salivate when I read your posts of this thread... will use BETI to find out when to sell @next peak. please keep updating more regular.... this is great, thanks. I will donate! +1 I was just in the progress of constructing my own charts for timing the top as well. It turns it is much more time consuming than I initially thought . Why the hell would I even need to do that if we have such quality thread. Jl2012 consider those mBTCs flying your way if we go above +1.5. It seems there is some resistance at -0.25 and 0.00. Afterwards this bull should be going with flying colors. Assuming it takes at least another two months min. tho reach the top it gives us another 20% on top of todays expected price. Hitting ATH would mean 33k USD, a little more conservative +1.5 would give us 25K USD.
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Biodom
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August 12, 2017, 03:48:51 PM |
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I also got about $25K for 1.5 by just eyballing/guesstimating, but not sure how to actually calculate it. The formula in wolfram's does not contain a simple explanation how you can plug in the expected value (0, 1 or 1.5). Maybe I am just looking at a wrong formula?
I guess, everyone want's to be there during the supra-exponential phase, but not stay too long during the inevitable deep correction (if you are into trading at all). Intuitively, $20-25K (if during supra-exponential phase) is a good place to exit (for a while).
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xxnewbiecoinerxx
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August 12, 2017, 04:05:54 PM |
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most people do not have any idea about "fair value". I would bet on seeing tons of weak hands selling too early and (maybe even buying back afterwards) If Sir Isac Newton did during south sea bubble why would not average Joe? Usually people get too late to the party. I guess another way to confirm the current value of network would be see historical data of nr. of transactions vs btc price. To answer your question to calculate ATH would be e powered by 1.87 times X todays expected price
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Biodom
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August 12, 2017, 04:10:41 PM |
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most people do not have any idea about "fair value". I would bet on seeing tons of weak hands selling too early and (maybe even buying back afterwards) If Sir Isac Newton did during south sea bubble why would not average Joe? Usually people get too late to the party. I guess another way to confirm the current value of network would be see historical data of nr. of transactions vs btc price. To answer your question to calculate ATH would be e powered by 1.87 times X todays expected price
right, of course, since it is an exponential function and e^0=1 (for expected today). Brain fart.
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statdude
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August 12, 2017, 05:23:19 PM |
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this is interesting... so just using an exponential trend, basically?
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jl2012 (OP)
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August 13, 2017, 03:32:06 AM |
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Date: 12-Aug-2017 BETI: -0.191 VWAP: 3789.13 x: 2583 a: 0.00331 b: -0.11002 Rsq: 0.81584 The day's expected price: 4588.41 Actual price / expected price: 82.58% Price to break the -2.23 all-time-low 494.00 Price to break the +1.87 all-time-high 29704.71 Predicted date for today's price: 15-Jun-2017 Days ahead: -57.88 Daily price rank: 1 (See OP for explanation) https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=e+%5E+%28+0.00330673975452274++%28+number+of+days+since+jul+17%2C+2010+%2Fdays+%29+-0.11002094625024+%29
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jl2012 (OP)
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August 13, 2017, 03:54:53 AM |
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this is interesting... so just using an exponential trend, basically?
yes, but the regression is done everyday only using the data available at that day We had a big jump in BETI yesterday. It's now over -0.2. As of writing the price is $4080. I think it's very possible to see 0 BETI BETI for some psychological resistance: 5000 0.085905352 7500 0.49137046 10000 0.779052532 15000 1.18451764 20000 1.472199713 25000 1.695343264
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