Since keccak512 has said he won't make any changes to the algorithms or timeline changes to the phases I just don't see how this can work out.
So I will repost what I did a few days earlier with the hopes that enough people will understand what I'm saying and put enough pressure on the DEVS that they will act or the coin is dead IMHO.
Mint Phase 45,000,000 coins (72 days to 25+ years depending on votes)
Limit Phase is fixed at 56 days and will award 63,476 blocks
Sustain Phase has 10,000,576 coins and will last from 4.7 years to 38+ years (depending on votes)
All of the above is from the website:
http://heavycoin.github.io/about.html#decentralised-votingTotal Supply is said to be from 63,000,576 (12.69% premine) to 128,000,000 HVC (6.25% premine)
The math says 8,000,000 coins were premined in total.
If my understanding is correct:
During the limit phase if vote count was 1024 then 64,999,424 coins would be awarded. If vote count is 0 then 0 coins are awarded.
63,000,576 - 45,000,000 - 10,000,576 = 8,000,000 premined coins
We are currently at 544 average vote. If this stays the same going into Limit phase then 63,476 blocks * 544 = 34,530,944 coins.
34,530,944 / 56 days / 24 hours per day / 30 blocks per hour = 856.42 block reward. This obviously will not work well dropping to a block reward of at most 8 HVC in the sustain phase.
This is a very poor transition because instead of the block reward going down to prepare for the sustain phase it jumped way up making it that much harder for the coin to survive entering the sustain phase.
If the vote is at 256 going into limit then: 63,476 blocks * 544 = 16,249,856 coins. / 56/24/30=403.02 block reward is still way to high.
If the vote is at 100 going into limit then: 63,476 blocks * 100 = 6,347,600 coins. / 56/24/30=157.43 block reward.
If the vote is at 50 going into limit then: 63,476 blocks * 50 = 3,173,800 coins. / 56/24/30=78.71 block reward.
If the vote is at 10 going into limit then: 63,476 blocks * 10 = 634,760 coins. / 56/24/30=15.74 block reward.
So as you can see EVEN with a vote count as low as 10 average, going into and staying in the limit phase, the block reward will still drop by more then half going into the limit phase.
In all honesty even with a GREAT COMMUNITY RALLY I don't see how we'll get the vote down any lower (on average) then 256 which is less then half what it is now. That would have us going from over 400 HVC per block to at MOST 8 HVC in the sustain phase. This coin can't survive any type of drop like that when the sustain phase hits. It just will NOT BE PROFITABLE in any manner to mine and the network will die and thus the coin will too.
Unfortunately at present there is no motivation to down vote for miners who don't have any type of decent stake. They want more coins to sell/dump and don't care about long term value.
With the value of BTC at present and the exchange (HVC/BTC) half what it was a week or two something drastic HAS TO BE DONE as IT CAN NOT GET WORKED OUT BY THE COMMUNITY.
The decentralized voting was/is a terrible idea as implemented and will be the death of this coin. It was not thought out well and has conflicting outcomes on the phases. It could have be useful if the phases were setup to give proper time for things to adjust (along with the market) to shift phases smoothly. Example flip the awarded coins between the mint and sustain phase. Lower amount of coins upfront builds value. Having 1/2 the coins available for sustain phase would have given miners an opportunity to mine. Longer limit phase then 56 was/is still needed however to allow for a proper transition of the market and to allow the math of the voting to work in your favor instead of increasing reward which it presently does with HVC only making the transition to sustain that much harder.
This can only be fixed by the devs if it's not to late already with a core change.
Does anyone agree/disagree?
Carlo
BTW, is there going to be a new wallet release any time soon due to the OpenSSL vulnerability?
The second phase (Limit) allows a maximum vote of 1024 HVC for the first 59,876 blocks, but 8 HVC for the last ~3,600 blocks so it can transition into to the last phase (Sustain).
I personally would rather see POS for phase 3 as I agree if hash drops significantly there could be potential malicious attacks.
