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kendog77
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June 25, 2014, 03:27:27 PM |
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The basic principle isn´t wrong that there is a limit at which nobody gains ROI in the network, atleast not with new equipment.
Right, but I think zvisha's assertion that the difficulty will level out at ~200 to 300PH is contingent upon the price of BTC remaining pretty close to where it is now. If we have another dramatic price increase, the economics of mining change completely and the difficulty will keep increasing. |
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Syke
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Activity: 3878
Merit: 1193
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June 25, 2014, 03:29:41 PM |
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Right, but I think zvisha's assertion that the difficulty will level out at ~200 to 300PH is contingent upon the price of BTC remaining pretty close to where it is now. If we have another dramatic price increase, the economics of mining change completely and the difficulty will keep increasing.
Bingo! Hashrate follows price. |
Buy & Hold
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zvisha
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June 25, 2014, 03:35:02 PM |
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The basic principle isn´t wrong that there is a limit at which nobody gains ROI in the network, atleast not with new equipment.
Exactly. Then you might have some percentage of speculative miners buying equipment with negative Roi for case btc rising. Also there us momentum of asic manufecturers to stop making asics that dont roi manufacture cost. Still, network grow will stop way before 500 ph. All and all, there is not much you can improve over sp30, not more then factor of 2. Imo. |
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zvisha
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June 25, 2014, 03:38:22 PM |
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Right, but I think zvisha's assertion that the difficulty will level out at ~200 to 300PH is contingent upon the price of BTC remaining pretty close to where it is now. If we have another dramatic price increase, the economics of mining change completely and the difficulty will keep increasing.
Bingo! Hashrate follows price. Yes, but then those who bought sp30 get more too. We are discussing Sp30 profitability, arent we )? |
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Collider
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June 25, 2014, 03:46:51 PM |
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Correct, hashrate follows price (atleast till the next block halving  ) with some lag (3-6 months, barring btc price explosion) under "ideal" circumstances. In the end, mining income will only be electricity price + small "bonus", as seen several times during the GPU era (before the massive price increases). Power consumption of 0.2 should be achievable by mid to late 2015, when 16/14nm designs become available, maybe earlier if there is some more potential for improvement on 28nm. |
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RoadStress
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June 25, 2014, 03:48:37 PM |
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The assertion that the network will stop growing after 200-300Ph is a very very bad one. Just because retail customers might not pay $0.50/Gh doesn't mean that manufacturers cannot keep making equipment for their raw costs.
Look at who is mining today and their percentages.
Bitfury - 8-10%
KNCminer - 6%
Antpool - 4%
Cloudhashing / PeerNova - 3%
That is a full 25% of the network from just manufacturers mining. And this is only what we know about.
Do you some how think that when customers stop buying the manufacturers are going to stop producing and mining?
But every hardware manufacturer has some fixed costs which can't go down no matter how cheap is the chip. PSUs, cases, fans, heatsinks etc so the price can't be extremely low. It would be interesting to hear some numbers for the fixed costs per GH/s. I'm thinking that they are around 0.1-0.3$/GH/s for a full system without the chips. |
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Syke
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June 25, 2014, 04:00:44 PM |
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Yes, but then those who bought sp30 get more too. We are discussing Sp30 profitability, arent we )?
For existing orders, just the opposite is true. What matters most is how many BTC the SP30 generates. If the exchange rate goes up, and the network hashrate also goes up, then the SP30 will mine fewer BTC. A high exchange rate will make future SP30 purchases more profitable, since fewer BTC will be spent purchasing the SP30 and thus the BTC mined to break even will be lower. |
Buy & Hold
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Collider
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June 25, 2014, 04:04:08 PM |
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Hardware cost is traditionally calculated in $, and ROI should also be calculated as such.
Mining is a hedged Bitcoin investment, with lower rewards at a rising bitcoin price but also lower risk.
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Guy Corem (OP)
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Spondoolies, Beam & DAGlabs
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June 25, 2014, 04:43:56 PM
Last edit: June 25, 2014, 05:07:42 PM by Spondoolies-Tech |
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 With new friends: Yingfei Li, Bitmain Xiang Liao ("Jack"), lightningasic CEO Alex Kampl, Allied Control Not in the picture: David Fan, Bitquan ("AM") General Manager Rock Xie and Alex Lam of RockMiner Had a great time. Guy |
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zvisha
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June 25, 2014, 05:13:17 PM |
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(New fw version awailible for download.)
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dropt
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June 25, 2014, 06:55:02 PM |
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Hardware cost is traditionally calculated in $, and ROI should also be calculated as such.
No, it really shouldn't. |
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ZiG
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June 25, 2014, 07:03:59 PM |
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Hardware cost is traditionally calculated in $, and ROI should also be calculated as such.
No, it really shouldn't. ..."Hardware cost is traditionally calculated in $..." , until the innovation of Bitcoin...specially of BTC mining gear... Cheers, ZiG |
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Collider
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June 25, 2014, 07:07:12 PM |
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Nearly every hardware manufacturer calculates hardware cost in fiat (because parts are bought in $ equivalent) and as such hardware price is also calculated in fiat. This remains as long as fiat is the reference of value for goods. As long as fiat is the reference of value, gained mining value (and hence ROI) should be calculated in $/€. You can always repurchase your spent Bitcoins, so you allow for a fiat valuation of every "only bitcoin" product. PS: There is a difference between cost and price  |
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s1gs3gv
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ex uno plures
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June 25, 2014, 07:09:24 PM |
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Lets make everything simple.
You give me 9 BTC now and I will give you 6 BTC on Jan. 1 2015. Escrow is ok.
No hosting cost, no shipping cost, no downtime. Takers ?
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spiccioli
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nec sine labore
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June 25, 2014, 07:15:29 PM |
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Nearly every hardware manufacturer calculates hardware cost in fiat (because parts are bought in $ equivalent) and as such hardware price is also calculated in dollar.
This remains as long as fiat is the reference of value for goods.
As long as fiat is the reference of value, gained mining value (and hence ROI) should be calculated in $.
That's miner's fallacy  You buy miners that produce BTC, if the miner that you buy produces less BTC than its cost in BTC you're better off buying BTC instead of miners and the more BTC's value goes up the more you're better off buying BTC directly not to mention the case when you buy them paying in BTC. spiccioli |
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raskul
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June 25, 2014, 07:19:30 PM |
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might someone be so kind to advise why my posts regarding my Israel p2pool node (which was set up to benefit Spondoolies datacentre miners) have been deleted? whoever is having a jolly time deleting posts should realise that the OP of this thread had encouraged the community here to work together. we are not here to succumb to dictatorship, we are here to help one another. methinks someone has their megalomaniac 'i must delete all posts' hat on today  |
tips 1APp826DqjJBdsAeqpEstx6Q8hD4urac8a
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Collider
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June 25, 2014, 07:20:45 PM |
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No, buying miners is a hedged investment in Bitcoin, not simply "buying bitcoin", allowing for lower risk.
It could also be argued that it is an investment in any sha-256 currency. There goes your bitcoin out of the door.
The argument "if you had bought bitcoin at the time Z" and comparing it to a different investment is a fallacy, as it comes with different risks and possible rewards.
ROI has to be calculated in some common and comparably stable form of value, which bitcoin isn´t yet.
If you get more bitcoins out of mining because bitcoin has tanked to 50$ and competition has therefore lowered, I would like to see you claim positive ROI.
As i ultimately use fiat to purchase miners that are priced in fiat (mostly), I will however calculate my ROI in fiat. If you want to, you can calculate your ROI in bananas, as for all I care.
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ZiG
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June 25, 2014, 07:22:22 PM
Last edit: June 25, 2014, 07:36:15 PM by ZiG |
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Nearly every hardware manufacturer calculates hardware cost in fiat (because parts are bought in $ equivalent) and as such hardware price is also calculated in fiat. This remains as long as fiat is the reference of value for goods. As long as fiat is the reference of value, gained mining value (and hence ROI) should be calculated in $/€. You can always repurchase your spent Bitcoins, so you allow for a fiat valuation of every "only bitcoin" product. PS: There is a difference between cost and price Let's do this...  The cow have been around long enough...RIGHT...  People buy cows because they are producing MILK... Cows need to eat... ETC...replace cow with mining gear...Milk with BTC... Capisco... ZiG |
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Collider
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June 25, 2014, 07:28:35 PM |
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Bad example, I could also slaughter the cow for meat, hold the cow for amusement or transportation, work on the field, or research purposes (or to annoy my neighbour by having it poop on his lawn).
All these actions, goods or services can be priced in a common form of value.
After all, you don´t necessarily hold the cow for milk, you could also hold it for profit on the sold milk (fiat or goods) or because you are speculating that livestock will be worth more in a year, due to livestock shortage.
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raskul
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June 25, 2014, 07:33:31 PM |
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might someone be so kind to advise why my posts regarding my Israel p2pool node (which was set up to benefit Spondoolies datacentre miners) have been deleted? whoever is having a jolly time deleting posts should realise that the OP of this thread had encouraged the community here to work together. we are not here to succumb to dictatorship, we are here to help one another. methinks someone has their megalomaniac 'i must delete all posts' hat on today no-one big enough to step up and give advisory as to why? doesn't surprise me. |
tips 1APp826DqjJBdsAeqpEstx6Q8hD4urac8a
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