Coronavirus Outbreak

[PrimeNumber7]

With regards to risk analysis, its a game of balancing the risk and reward. The convenience of motor vehicles is something we've agreed is worth taking the risk of dying in a car crash, but we wear seat belts and strive for higher safety engineering.

The cost of wearing a seat belt is something close to zero. The cost of closing the economy is far above zero and is costing lives (and livelihoods), and it may not even be effective. The lockdowns were not intended to prevent the majority of coronavirus deaths, they were intended to spread out coronavirus deaths, and to prevent deaths resulting from an overwhelmed healthcare system. The healthcare system is currently vastly underwhelmed.

You brought up an interesting point about the asymptomatic thing. On one hand, we may consider ourselves lucky that Covid doesn't have the 35% mortality rate of MERS. On the other hand, when you catch the flu, you know within a day or two and are then on your couch eating soup until you're feeling better. With Covid, you're running around feeling fine exposing other people who may or may not end up feeling fine. You could go out for a jog and then go chat with Grandma or little Timmy, and then they've croaked. The death statistics are important, but the hospitalization rate is also incredibly important. Assuming medical care is available, its not cheap. The things that put you in the high risk category for Covid aren't just rare lung diseases or being 97 years old. They're things like obesity, asthma, high blood pressure, and diabetes, things that effect more than 50% of Americans. There are essentially four outcomes with Covid, either you are asymptomatic and don't get sick at all, you get a really shitty but not life threatening two week illness, you end up in the hospital with a mountain of medical bills, or you die (and still wrack up medical bills). Three out of four of those are bad options, and option #1 isn't fantastic either for the sake of spread of contagion.

As discussed above, the lockdowns are not intended to prevent everyone from getting the coronavirus, only delay people from getting it. Most people have had health insurance, but less so today because millions have lost their jobs that typically provide health insurance benefits. In 2018, the percentage of Americans without health insurance was about 7.75% (assuming a population of 360mm), but this probably went down in 2019/early 2020 due to job and wage gains.

Every decision we will ever make is based on predictions. We predicted and are still predicting the effects of Covid, time will tell how things end up, but its typically better to contain the problem rather than try to deal with it later if its possible to at all.

This depends on the costs. Trying to contain the problem is going to cost lives over the long run.

I'd have to look at a lot of data before making a statement about empty hospitals, that hasn't been my experience, but I'm also looking at the mid Atlantic to northeast corridor, not the country as a whole in depth. We've got fancy statistics here on hospital capacity, death demographics and all sorts of other interesting things if you'd like to take a look. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

In Maryland, there are about 1,600 people in the hospital for with coronavirus. This is out of about 9,400 hospital beds in MD, and is below the surge capacity of the hospitals themselves without state or federal government assistance.

Ah, quick final thought, its a prediction that having covid right now will leave you immune next month.

Recovering from a virus will leave you immune for at least a period of time. As previously discussed, the lockdowns are intended to slow the spread, not stop it. Once between 60-70% or so of the population is immune to a disease(due to vaccination or otherwise), its transmission will stop due to herd immunity. Under a very poor case scenario, if immunity from recovering from the virus lasts less than the time it takes for 60% of the population to get and recover from the virus, the population will never get herd immunity without a vaccine that is not guaranteed to come.

On the topic of vaccines, if the world continues to be on lockdown, there will be intense pressure for drug companies to present their proposed vaccine as safe and effective, and governments will be under great pressure to approve vaccines. This could result in vaccines being approved after some corners are cut, which could result in not good outcomes.

[TECSHARE]

"Dr Buttar Accuses Fauci, Gates & The Media For Using COVID-19 To Drive Hidden Agenda"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnbf9wccdxE

[TwitchySeal]

With regards to risk analysis, its a game of balancing the risk and reward. The convenience of motor vehicles is something we've agreed is worth taking the risk of dying in a car crash, but we wear seat belts and strive for higher safety engineering.

The cost of wearing a seat belt is something close to zero. The cost of closing the economy is far above zero and is costing lives (and livelihoods), and it may not even be effective. The lockdowns were not intended to prevent the majority of coronavirus deaths, they were intended to spread out coronavirus deaths, and to prevent deaths resulting from an overwhelmed healthcare system. The healthcare system is currently vastly underwhelmed.

You brought up an interesting point about the asymptomatic thing. On one hand, we may consider ourselves lucky that Covid doesn't have the 35% mortality rate of MERS. On the other hand, when you catch the flu, you know within a day or two and are then on your couch eating soup until you're feeling better. With Covid, you're running around feeling fine exposing other people who may or may not end up feeling fine. You could go out for a jog and then go chat with Grandma or little Timmy, and then they've croaked. The death statistics are important, but the hospitalization rate is also incredibly important. Assuming medical care is available, its not cheap. The things that put you in the high risk category for Covid aren't just rare lung diseases or being 97 years old. They're things like obesity, asthma, high blood pressure, and diabetes, things that effect more than 50% of Americans. There are essentially four outcomes with Covid, either you are asymptomatic and don't get sick at all, you get a really shitty but not life threatening two week illness, you end up in the hospital with a mountain of medical bills, or you die (and still wrack up medical bills). Three out of four of those are bad options, and option #1 isn't fantastic either for the sake of spread of contagion.

As discussed above, the lockdowns are not intended to prevent everyone from getting the coronavirus, only delay people from getting it. Most people have had health insurance, but less so today because millions have lost their jobs that typically provide health insurance benefits. In 2018, the percentage of Americans without health insurance was about 7.75% (assuming a population of 360mm), but this probably went down in 2019/early 2020 due to job and wage gains.

Every decision we will ever make is based on predictions. We predicted and are still predicting the effects of Covid, time will tell how things end up, but its typically better to contain the problem rather than try to deal with it later if its possible to at all.

This depends on the costs. Trying to contain the problem is going to cost lives over the long run.

I'd have to look at a lot of data before making a statement about empty hospitals, that hasn't been my experience, but I'm also looking at the mid Atlantic to northeast corridor, not the country as a whole in depth. We've got fancy statistics here on hospital capacity, death demographics and all sorts of other interesting things if you'd like to take a look. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

In Maryland, there are about 1,600 people in the hospital for with coronavirus. This is out of about 9,400 hospital beds in MD, and is below the surge capacity of the hospitals themselves without state or federal government assistance.

Ah, quick final thought, its a prediction that having covid right now will leave you immune next month.

Recovering from a virus will leave you immune for at least a period of time. As previously discussed, the lockdowns are intended to slow the spread, not stop it. Once between 60-70% or so of the population is immune to a disease(due to vaccination or otherwise), its transmission will stop due to herd immunity. Under a very poor case scenario, if immunity from recovering from the virus lasts less than the time it takes for 60% of the population to get and recover from the virus, the population will never get herd immunity without a vaccine that is not guaranteed to come.

On the topic of vaccines, if the world continues to be on lockdown, there will be intense pressure for drug companies to present their proposed vaccine as safe and effective, and governments will be under great pressure to approve vaccines. This could result in vaccines being approved after some corners are cut, which could result in not good outcomes.

I think there's a misconception that the reason the world is locking down is to save lives because it's sad when people die.  In reality it really is all about the economy.  When the death rate increases exponentially long enough from a mystery virus that has no cure or vaccine, it's bad for the economy.  The reason the economy is shut down right now, is not simply to save lives - it's to protect the economy.  

If we do too little, and the virus ends up being near the worst case scenario, it takes decades to recover economically, or maybe we just don't - especially if other countries do enough.

Pretty much every single argument I've heard that was against the lock down just ignores the worst case scenario and just focuses on how small of a population is actually dying or at risk of dying.  

[TECSHARE]

I think there's a misconception that the reason the world is locking down is to save lives because it's sad when people die.  In reality it really is all about the economy.  When the death rate increases exponentially long enough from a mystery virus that has no cure or vaccine, it's bad for the economy.  The reason the economy is shut down right now, is not simply to save lives - it's to protect the economy.  

If we do too little, and the virus ends up being near the worst case scenario, it takes decades to recover economically, or maybe we just don't - especially if other countries do enough.

Pretty much every single argument I've heard that was against the lock down just ignores the worst case scenario and just focuses on how small of a population is actually dying or at risk of dying. 

Your brain must be as twisted as a funnel cake with all the mental gymnastics you manage to do.

[tvbcof]

The 'new normal'  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjYc20I2T1Y

[Tash]

Does the World have a problem?

[franky1]

The big part of the stimulus package was the Paycheck Protection Loan (PPL) which has been under fire recentley for giving too much freedom to the banks to not be equal in their processing of applications. In simple terms, banks were processing the applications of their wealthier clients first. There's also the issue of big companies receiving the PPL, when small businesses were heavily left behind.

Real shit show.

this has to have some context.
yes some banks might have 'buddies' who have speed dial to get their application in first.
but its also these large companies that have all their accounts inline and set up using proper accounting services. thus validating the amount of employee's and salraries is easy.
however a sole trader/small business which has alot of staff turn over have messier accounts thus taking more time to sort out
the same thing has been happening in the UK too with their employee protection systems. large businesses just show their PAYE (pay as you earn staff tax contributions) where as smaller businesses might not even have staff that have been working for 1-3months or the values of pay vary due to getting commission. and even some people paid as self employed contractors.
it even got to the point of government saying people should apply for 'business interuption loans' which they can later pay back when they finally do get the pay-outs backdated

[Cnut237]

For those who are interested in facts and data (we all are, right?) ... here is the best visualisation I've seen of how different countries compare on the journey of managing the CV-19 pandemic. Obviously we need a log scale for charting what is an exponential phenomenon, but this approach has log scale on both axes, with time implied through animation rather than being charted explicitly. Countries that are achieving success drop away from the common trend line very dramatically. This is quite a skilful approach to data visualisation.
Source is here.

[franky1]

For those who are interested in facts and data (we all are, right?) ... here is the best visualisation I've seen of how different countries compare on the journey of managing the CV-19 pandemic. Obviously we need a log scale for charting what is an exponential phenomenon, but this approach has log scale on both axes, with time implied through animation rather than being charted explicitly. This is quite a skilful approach to data visualisation.
Source is here.

i prefered to view it in the linear view. as it showed the difference in angle from non lockdown. vs the result of different countries counts after a 2 week effect of what the lockdowns caused.

take america which licked down mid march and only started to plateau 2-3 weeks later and flattened out after that
imagine the image without lockdown.. the scale wouldnt be stuck at just a 2mill pop scale. but a 2billion pop scale (imagining 1 in 5 had symptoms worthy of needing hospital treatment

but it has been good to see it in log scale to see that the infection rate before lockdowns is 2x in just 2 days. which puts the R0 at a median of about 5.7 rather than original thoughts of 2.6

[Cnut237]

R0

We have two methods by which we can control and reduce the R₀.
Firstly, through measures such as quarantining and social distancing we reduce the number of contacts an infected person has.
Secondly, through the use of protective equipment, masks, hand washing, disinfecting etc we reduce the likelihood of transmission from the infected person.

But we will probably never know the 'natural' R₀, of how transmissible this thing is without people taking the above precautions. Obviously we've seen exponential growth in confirmed cases, but we have next to no idea about total cases, those with minor symptoms or who are asymptomatic, or indeed those that for whatever reason don't enter the official records. It is likely that there have been orders-of-magnitude more infections than the records state... which does have potentially profound implications for the progression towards herd immunity.

It is certainly important to track the R₀ as much as we can, but charts like the above that compare two 'knowns', in this instance total confirmed infections and new confirmed infections, do help tremendously in measuring the effectiveness of each government's response.

[Spendulus]

Been reading a good amount about the massive $2.2 trillion stimulus package. People are praising Congress for getting it done so quickly, as it is pretty crazy they were able to agree on something like this so swiftly. The issue is in what really matters, which is the execution of the bill itself.

The big part of the stimulus package was the Paycheck Protection Loan (PPL) which has been under fire recentley for giving too much freedom to the banks to not be equal in their processing of applications. In simple terms, banks were processing the applications of their wealthier clients first. There's also the issue of big companies receiving the PPL, when small businesses were heavily left behind.

Real shit show.

And then Trump and Mnuchin acted surprised and offended that rich people would dare take as much free federal money as the rules allowed.

That's going to be funny scene in a movie one day.

Oh that part is the part that's annoying me. It's also on the members of congress who wrote this bill and passed it, as they're also complicit in this happening as well. Everyone in Congress (and Trumps office) knows that you could've set stricter limits on this program but they didn't do it on purpose. Sigh.

Hopefully people that truly do need it get this money, instead of some huge companies that really are just trying to starve out the competition (smaller businesses) of funds that they needed yesterday.

Let me know when you hear of someone that truly did need it who got it.

[TECSHARE]

"Dr Buttar Accuses Fauci, Gates & The Media For Using COVID-19 To Drive Hidden Agenda"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnbf9wccdxE

[BADecker]

R0

We have two methods by which we can control and reduce the R₀.
Firstly, through measures such as quarantining and social distancing we reduce the number of contacts an infected person has.
Secondly, through the use of protective equipment, masks, hand washing, disinfecting etc we reduce the likelihood of transmission from the infected person.

But we will probably never know the 'natural' R₀, of how transmissible this thing is without people taking the above precautions. Obviously we've seen exponential growth in confirmed cases, but we have next to no idea about total cases, those with minor symptoms or who are asymptomatic, or indeed those that for whatever reason don't enter the official records. It is likely that there have been orders-of-magnitude more infections than the records state... which does have potentially profound implications for the progression towards herd immunity.

It is certainly important to track the R₀ as much as we can, but charts like the above that compare two 'knowns', in this instance total confirmed infections and new confirmed infections, do help tremendously in measuring the effectiveness of each government's response.

Actually, there is a third method. Get out on the lake in a R₀w boat and do some fishing.

[franky1]

Actually, there is a third method. Get out on the lake in a R₀w boat and do some fishing.

i done that yesterday. yep lockdown is not the same as being tied up and held hostage, you still have freedom of movement.
..
anyways i think anything related to covid just blows over your head and you dont understand basics. so maybe find another topic to troll

edit to reply to below without bumping:
silly thing is .. troll below is in a 'dry state' but has a fish obsession/fetish right now.
he also himself CHOSE to give up on bacon but is now thinking about fish.
well he should learn to eat local. beef and pork and chicken are local in arizona. the reason you wont get fish has nothing to do with covid. its the fact he in a dry state.

in the UK i dont care if i cant get hold of dragon fruit (asian fruit) ill eat apples as thats local produce in my area. i dont care if i cant drink heinekan(netherlands) ill drink alcoholic cider
i live in an area of beef pork, poultry, plus loads of fruits and veg.
heck im only a 10 minute walk from a farm.
maybe its time you stop craving for fish and start looking at produce closer to home

by the way arizona is still making bacon
whats next. gonna blame china because you cant get exotic pangolin soup because china stopped making it
eat a arizona beef burger that you CAN get delivered to you, then shut up

[BADecker]

Actually, there is a third method. Get out on the lake in a R₀w boat and do some fishing.

i done that yesterday. yep lockdown is not the same as being ied up and held hostage, you still have freedom of movement.
..
anyways i think anything related to covid just blows over your head and you dont understand basics. so maybe find another topic to troll

Hey, franky1. Thanks for bolstering my content.

This CV vacation is really great, right? And since you know how to fish, you won't be running out of food right away when the grocery stores are finally empty in the lockdown/shutdown.

That's the one problem with AZ. You gotta actually go out of State to do any big fishing. When the food runs out, there will be lots of people at our little lakes... at least until the fish run out... or until government shuts down the beaches like in California. You UK jokers only have a few miles to drive to the ocean to get your fish.

I wonder if, in all this CV propaganda, Fukushima has been dumping most of their radioactive water into the ocean without anybody noticing. Maybe all that radiation will naturally kill off CV in us, if we eat the radioactive fish, that is.

[franky1]

President Donald Trump ... has seen evidence that gives him a "high degree of confidence" the novel coronavirus originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, China, but declined to provide details to back up his assertion.

we all know trump has the same IQ as people like badecker(very low) their evidence is faux media like infowars and hotwire and all the other conspiracy cults

[TECSHARE]

Top US spy agency says coronavirus was ‘not manmade or genetically modified’

The top U.S. spy agency said for the first time on Thursday that the nation’s collective intelligence community does not believe that the coronavirus was manmade or genetically modified.

“The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified,” the Office of Director of National Intelligence said in a rare statement.

Trump contradicts US intel community by claiming he's seen evidence coronavirus originated in Chinese lab

President Donald Trump contradicted a rare on-the-record statement from his own intelligence community by claiming Thursday that he has seen evidence that gives him a "high degree of confidence" the novel coronavirus originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, China, but declined to provide details to back up his assertion.

How predictable you are. I knew you were going to jump on this like a bitch in heat. One question, what interest do they have in making a public disclosure about the modified nature of the virus when they themselves were funding the gain of function research? Why would they directly expose themselves to liability? Furthermore, what are the implications of publicly disclosing that China intentionally used a bio-weapon on the rest of the world?


"U.S. halts funding for new risky virus studies, calls for voluntary moratorium" October 17, 2014

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/10/us-halts-funding-new-risky-virus-studies-calls-voluntary-moratorium



"Fauci’s NIAID Funded Wuhan Lab Scientists To Research Bat Coronavirus"

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/new-coronavirus-emerges-bats-china-devastates-young-swine



"US gave $3.7 million to China's Wuhan lab that conducted coronavirus tests on bats"

https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/shocking-us-gave-37-million-to-chinas-wuhan-lab-that-conducted-coronavirus-tests-on-bats/story/400831.html



"Former AIDS Scientist Exposes Dr. Fauci’s Medical Corruption"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgnBldI7KPY



"The Coronavirus Is Man Made According to Luc Montagnier the Man Who Discovered HIV"

https://www.gilmorehealth.com/chinese-coronavirus-is-a-man-made-virus-according-to-luc-montagnier-the-man-who-discovered-hiv/



"Engineering Coronaviruses to Evaluate Emergence and Pathogenic Potential"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0966842X16300038#bbib0080



"Gain-of-Function Research and the Relevance to Clinical Practice"

https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/213/9/1364/2459266

[madnessteat]

Recently I came across a Harvard study by Gianluca Rinaldi and Matteo Paradissi conducted in ten locations in Lombardyio and was surprised because the mortality rate from coronavirus is even lower than that from influenza. 

For people over 60, the mortality rate is 4.29% of those infected.
For people under 60, the mortality rate is 0.05% of those infected.

For comparison, influenza mortality is 0.1%.

Source: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070912v1.full.pdf

[TwitchySeal]

Top US spy agency says coronavirus was ‘not manmade or genetically modified’

The top U.S. spy agency said for the first time on Thursday that the nation’s collective intelligence community does not believe that the coronavirus was manmade or genetically modified.

“The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified,” the Office of Director of National Intelligence said in a rare statement.

Trump contradicts US intel community by claiming he's seen evidence coronavirus originated in Chinese lab

President Donald Trump contradicted a rare on-the-record statement from his own intelligence community by claiming Thursday that he has seen evidence that gives him a "high degree of confidence" the novel coronavirus originated in a laboratory in Wuhan, China, but declined to provide details to back up his assertion.

How predictable you are. I knew you were going to jump on this like a bitch in heat. One question, what interest do they have in making a public disclosure about the modified nature of the virus when they themselves were funding the gain of function research? Why would they directly expose themselves to liability? Furthermore, what are the implications of publicly disclosing that China intentionally used a bio-weapon on the rest of the world?

I mean, he has quite the history of spreading lies and conspiracy theories about his enemies.  And it's pretty clear that he's going to be playing the "China is trying to help Biden win, don't let China win! Vote for Trump!" card... It does take a rocket surgeon to figure out why he's planting the Chinese bio weapon seed.

Also, he's gotta make sure the country trusts his intelligence agencies as little as possible.

Intelligence Community Statement on Origins of COVID-19
 
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Office of the Director of National Intelligence today issued the following Intelligence Community (IC) statement:
 
“The entire Intelligence Community has been consistently providing critical support to U.S. policymakers and those responding to the COVID-19 virus, which originated in China. The Intelligence Community also concurs with the wide scientific consensus that the COVID-19 virus was not manmade or genetically modified.

“As we do in all crises, the Community’s experts respond by surging resources and producing critical intelligence on issues vital to U.S. national security. The IC will continue to rigorously examine emerging information and intelligence to determine whether the outbreak began through contact with infected animals or if it was the result of an accident at a laboratory in Wuhan.”

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/item/2112-intelligence-community-statement-on-origins-of-covid-19

the modified nature of the virus

nope.


"The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9   <===actual source



"The new coronavirus was not man-made, study shows"

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/the-new-coronavirus-was-not-genetically-engineered-study-shows

[Tash]

Anyone is free to choose the origin of this dis ease.

A:  Laboratory created
B:  Bat -> other animal + HIV sequences -> human SARS-CoV-2
C:  Aluminium in the body from air pollution, vaccines, ....... + microwaves busts (5G)
D:  Total hoax