Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[TPTB_need_war]

Okay I guess you convinced me. 

Mea culpa.

[1714017332]

1714017332

[1714017332]

1714017332

[inca]

The value of the 'network effect' peaked some time time ago an it is now a distinct negative and a distinct threat to the system in my opinion.  By now everyone who can make legitimate use of the system has heard about it.  Most of the new-users are of the class who have no real chance of protecting themselves (even less than the historic dismal record that the userbase has demonstrated) and will thus induce even more nanny-systems to lend them a hand.  These are inevitably bad for Bitcoin in a variety of ways (the most common one being that they are scams and/or even worse that the mainstream banking system in multiple important ways.)

Bitcoin will not really fill it's potential until sidechains are up-and-running.  I just hope it lasts that long before it is destroyed from within.  If so something else and probably something much better will take it's place though it would probably set certain things back by a few years.  I hope(d) it would be Bitcoin since I still sit on a fair number of them and it would make my life easier.

I am not sure many people will agree with your assertions.

In fact most of the new users in the future will be using multi-sig technology with companies like coinbase or enjoying consumer protection with companies like circle without even realising it. They will use bitcoin like they use gmail. It isn't appropriate for members of the public to be playing with cold storage and dice or worrying about what a private key is or how to store it safely.

It might be worth remembering that bitcoin isn't a plaything entirely for superior beings like yourself. It is for everyone.

[TPTB_need_war]

I finally had a spare moment to contemplate the variables.

A key factor is the block size. If the block size is unlimited (and bandwidth is an insignificant cost), then unless miners have a monopoly they will accept transactions with fees as low as don't constitute a DoS attack, in order to maximize revenue.

In other words, they would have no pricing power at all (a Tragedy of the Commons) and the system would devolve into a partial-monopoly in order to gain pricing power.

A partial-monopoly in this case is enough % of the network hashrate to delay transactions (by that % of blocks) which do not include a sufficient fee.

If we limit block size, then the system doesn't scale.

If we let the Bitcoin foundation decide when to increase block size, then they control the economic market function, i.e. we've centralized Bitcoin.

Let us assume unlimited block size and partial-monopolies. Thus the transaction fee can always be forced higher in order to generate more revenue for the miners. Thus Bitcoin devolves (as coin rewards diminish) to a system that presents spenders with a choice between include a very high transaction fee or accept an ever increasing delay for confirmation. This will exacerbate as coin rewards diminish and volume of transactions increase.

If we instead assume limited block size, then the Bitcoin foundation will set the transaction fees, not the market.

Bitcoin is a broken design.

[TPTB_need_war]

inca, I readily agreed with tvbcof's point because I recalled I had made the same point roughly about the time I started the thread Bitcoin adoption slowing; Coinbase...

If I remember correctly, my point was essentially that the Reed's or Metcalf's law network effects (i.e. potential interactions a.k.a. entropy) are highly diminished when the choices users can make have been predetermined for them to a great extent by a few behemoths. Even though those "laws" are an approximation of reality, I submit it is self-evident that exponentially greater entropy is created by a million diverse (free thinking) independent users versus a billion xerox copy users.

Thus to destroy Bitcoin all we (100,000 or million early adopter nerds) have to do is leave it.

[cypherdoc]

so sorry:

[cypherdoc]

yawn.  getting ready to Moon:

http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nasdaq-launches-enterprisewide-blockchain-technology-initiative-20150511-00485

[sickpig]

Bitcoin vs Blockchain is still going at full swing in the mainstream press.

Are blockchains here to stay, in one guise or another? Just because bitcoin didn’t succeed as a currency
doesn't mean blockchain will succeed as a technology, but the experiment is important to run," says Patrick
Collison of Stripe, a payments processor. The possible uses are legion, but the killer app is still missing.

I didn't realize that bitcoin the currency already failed.

[cypherdoc]

Bitcoin vs Blockchain is still going at full swing in the mainstream press.

Are blockchains here to stay, in one guise or another? Just because bitcoin didn’t succeed as a currency
doesn't mean blockchain will succeed as a technology, but the experiment is important to run," says Patrick
Collison of Stripe, a payments processor. The possible uses are legion, but the killer app is still missing.

I didn't realize that bitcoin the currency already failed.

yeah, i read that.  Collison fail.

[inca]

Bitcoin vs Blockchain is still going at full swing in the mainstream press.

Are blockchains here to stay, in one guise or another? Just because bitcoin didn’t succeed as a currency
doesn't mean blockchain will succeed as a technology, but the experiment is important to run," says Patrick
Collison of Stripe, a payments processor. The possible uses are legion, but the killer app is still missing.

I didn't realize that bitcoin the currency already failed.

Probably talking it down while he does the opposite and acquires.

[Adrian-x]

Bitcoin vs Blockchain is still going at full swing in the mainstream press.

Are blockchains here to stay, in one guise or another? Just because bitcoin didn’t succeed as a currency
doesn't mean blockchain will succeed as a technology, but the experiment is important to run," says Patrick
Collison of Stripe, a payments processor. The possible uses are legion, but the killer app is still missing.

I didn't realize that bitcoin the currency already failed.

He just failed to see Bitcoin's killer app, bitcoin the currency.

[cypherdoc]

...

Grandma and moma aren't you. And that is entire point of this drive to push Paypal, Circle, Coinbase, etc onto the masses.

If you are arguing the masses will have the slightest clue that they need to move their wallet because of some obscure Digital Kill Switch that doesn't affect them, then you are disingenuous and absurd.

So let's assume for a moment you have a functioning brain and you're right that the gvt teams up with all the banks and retail companies all within a giant cabal and the masses all are in Bitcoin.

They hit the dreaded Digital Kill Switch. What happens then?

Dissidents and competitors are targeted and eliminated (Digital Kill Switch one of the important tools of discipline on anyone who doesn't conform). The masses huddle into the NWO one world reserve currency and Global Technocracy fascist economy.

1984.

It is a slow burn eugenics paradigm to achieve Ted Turner's 500 million population goal.

you're a whack job.

[cypherdoc]

can one of you tech guys comment on Peter Todds claim that there was an entire book embedded in the BC a month ago?  how is it done?

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/34uu02/why_increasing_the_max_block_size_is_urgent_gavin/cqystoo?context=3

As Odalv already said tx size can be really big. If you go over the 100KB a transaction
is considered non-standard though, see: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/main.cpp#L603-L611
and  https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/main.h#L55-L56

Code:

    // Extremely large transactions with lots of inputs can cost the network
    // almost as much to process as they cost the sender in fees, because
    // computing signature hashes is O(ninputs*txsize). Limiting transactions
    // to MAX_STANDARD_TX_SIZE mitigates CPU exhaustion attacks.
    unsigned int sz = tx.GetSerializeSize(SER_NETWORK, CTransaction::CURRENT_VERSION);
    if (sz >= MAX_STANDARD_TX_SIZE) {
        reason = "tx-size";
        return false;
    }

Code:

/** The maximum size for transactions we're willing to relay/mine */
static const unsigned int MAX_STANDARD_TX_SIZE = 100000;

That said as long as you find a miner/poll that accept to include your tx
in the next block you're golden.

As soon as I have time I'll look for the actual txs that Peter Todd was referring to.

thanks for that.  but even if a miner tries to incl a non std tx into his solved block, it's quite probable that the majority of nodes/miners  still reject the block as a result, no?

[cypherdoc]

here's Sergio Lerner agreeing with me on the futility of creating bloated blocks:

Most methods proposed to reduce the block propagation delay do it only
on the average case. Any kind of block compression relies on both
parties sharing some previous information. In the worse case it's true
that a miner can create and try to broadcast a block that takes too much
time to verify or bandwidth to transmit. This is currently true on the
Bitcoin network. Nevertheless there is no such incentive for miners,
since they will be shooting on their own foots. Peter Todd has argued
that the best strategy for miners is actually to reach 51% of the
network, but not more. In other words, to exclude the slowest 49%
percent. But this strategy of creating bloated blocks is too risky in
practice, and surely doomed to fail, as network conditions dynamically
change. Also it would be perceived as an attack to the network, and the
miner (if it is a public mining pool) would be probably blacklisted.

https://www.mail-archive.com/bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net/msg07663.html

[leezay]

Gold is tangible asset. Hard to convince older generation to hold bitcoin.

[msin]

Gold is tangible asset. Hard to convince older generation to hold bitcoin.

Many of the older generation hold paper gold in their brokerage accounts and have no problem with that.  I believe once "paper" BTC is readily available on the market, the older generation will have no problem investing some amount.

[cypherdoc]

Gold is tangible asset. Hard to convince older generation to hold bitcoin.

this is why Bitcoin needs to scale as a payment network to push usage and acceptance out to the geographic periphery where even African kids mining for gold are discouraged from going down 3' wide holes 100 yds deep to pull up a useless heavy metal.  Once that happens, Bitcoin becomes universal money and the old white folks won't have any choice.

[cypherdoc]

Gold is tangible asset. Hard to convince older generation to hold bitcoin.

this is why Bitcoin needs to scale as a payment network to push usage and acceptance out to the geographic periphery where even African kids mining for gold are discouraged from going down 3' wide holes 100 yds deep to pull up a useless heavy metal.  Once that happens, Bitcoin becomes universal money and the old white folks won't have any choice.

the other way to look at this is that Africa is the epicenter of gold mining production.  do you think they will stop mining for the stuff if they don't get an opportunity to work/transact with Bitcoin?  well, they won't with a 1MB limit.  we want to get them to stop and realize there is a better alternative form of sound money that doesn't involve sacrificing your kids.

[tvbcof]

...
It is a slow burn eugenics paradigm to achieve Ted Turner's 500 million population goal.

you're a whack job.

I have a theorem which is not even a total joke any more:

Any 'conspiracy theory' to which most people (including oneself unless they just got in from being raised by wolves) have a visceral negative reaction is for THAT reason something worth paying some attention to.  Some of these 'theories' (which are at best hypothesis (unless they are documented facts which a surprising number are)) are absurd enough to be rejected out-of-hand to be sure.

The hypothesis that there are eugenicists who would at least tolerate a mechanism which brought the worldwide population of the homo sapien species to a small fraction of our current number is not one of those to be rejected out of hand as far as I am concerned.  Further, some of them have amassed significant capabilities in some areas.  Ted Turner's case is one of those which is a documented fact unless some of his utterances have been invented out of whole cloth.

There are other things not to love (in my opinion) about Mr. Turner:



I'd give at least even odds that the story is bullshit however.  I'd withhold judgement until confirmation or rejection of some sort.

[cypherdoc]

grinding higher.  MACD going positive:

[bassclef]

I've been watching the MACD centerline crossover as well. Historically it has been a good confirmation of trend continuation.