[XMR] Monero Speculation

[kazuki49]

You are right there are a lot of different arms of the Monero ecosystem and different on-ramps for development. We also have people making crowdfunding pitches. Right now that is somewhat centralized in the sense that it goes through a forum (though still decentralized in the sense that any developers and sponsors are eligible), but who knows in time that can perhaps be done in a more decentralized manner too.

In a lot of ways I feel that the sustainability of a project and its associated community matters more than it's current feature set. We all know every viable coin will be quite different in five years than today. Arguing about today's feature set and implementation is silly.

As always I feel you are right on the target smooth, we don't know what a cryptocurrency 5 or 10 years from now will need but we can agree that Bitcoin as coin and as project is inefficient and Monero has adopted a long term view complete with hardfork schedules and promissing goals to accommodate necessary and viable changes, also AEON might surprise us in the future.

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change. - Charles Darwin

Fortunately Monero is not only the best POW coin in existence but the one that shows most indications of built-in adaptability preserving core social contract, I think CT is the first proof of that

[1714685068]

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[1714685068]

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[americanpegasus]

 I would imagine in the future it would be silly to think that people did this merely to make a small profit, when they will then realize that they just went against everything they initially stood for in terms of getting away from government mandated currencies.

Because I am in it for the long term, I hope that when/if I one day spend my "eta" that I will do it directly.  I fully expect that I will never 'sell' up to 50% of the Monero I acquire in these early stages.  I actually like a modified form of Risto's plan, where every time the price goes up 10x you sell/trade 10% to increase the available supply and upgrade the quality of your life a little bit.  
  
That might be for dollars, land, stock, etc.... Whatever is valuable at the time.  
  
Price hits $40: I sell 10% of what I acquired at under $1.  Perhaps I buy a new car, and a tv finally.  
Price hits $400: I sell 10% and buy a house.  
$4000 Retire from my job and go full time Monero promotion, consulting, activist.  Sell 10% for travel and living expenses over the next several years.  
$40,000: Sell 10%.  Start a video game company (dream of my youth).
$400,000 Sell 10%.  Now comes major charity work such as the gifted and talent orphanage, plus humanist endeavors such as cryonics research (don't worry Hal, we ain't forgot about you) and AI work.  

$4,000,000: At this point we are among the richest people in the world, and personally I still hold 50% of the initial Monero I began with.  At these levels, 10% would be a ludicrous sum, and with it I could likely get elected to any public office would choose, start a new country, cover Montana in sour skittles, build a replica of The Labyrinth, etc etc.  This is where major contributions to humanity are possible.  Luxury is boring by this point and wealth of this magnitude is mainly used to decide how humanity will focus its attention and resources.  As always, connecting our species, seeking out talented humans born in suboptimal conditions, building AI, space travel, SETI, NASA, etc all become priorities.

  
I have already been toying with the idea of being more public in how much I own.  I feel this provides some trust due to the fact that I serve in a slightly official capacity.  Also, I hype the shit so much, it feels ethical to disclose that I am heavily invested.  As far as malicious actors down the road, they can fuck themselves.  You're welcome to look up how I handle a gun on YouTube, I don't negotiate with bad guys, and I fully believe in individual sovereignty.  There will be much easier marks out there, I guarantee it.  
  
I'm also considering some type of pledge... Like a pledge not to suddenly sell out of Monero for fiat during a bull market.  Us early adopters will hold a lot of wealth if Monero does what I think it will, and those who come later will be assured by a public promise that a certain percentage of our Monero wealth will always be held in trust.

Ok, I confess.  I've bumped up to 1MR for some additional caffeine.  I need to clean the house and stop yelling at Bitcoin talk and day dreaming.  I've got a girlfriend moving in next month, and she speaks Romanian so I told her a.) I'll have a clean house for her to arrive at and b.) imma put her to work translating Monero stuff into Romanian.  Romanians are a good people, and I told her she might be the woman who helps make it one of the richest nations in the world.  

[smoothie]

If you have an opinion on the matter, we just had a topic on Reddit discussing what to eventually call Monero atomic units on Reddit.  (Yes, it's a conversation we've had before, and will have again). 
 
My favorite is a combination of the most popular suggestions, a millionth of a Monero being called a nero, and a millionth of a nero being called an eta. 
 
Check out the topic if you like: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/3q21yx/its_time_to_argue_about_what_atomic_units_of/

I like nero, but am not sold on eta yet.

Instead of eta call it MO. lol j/k

[chennan]

  I would imagine in the future it would be silly to think that people did this merely to make a small profit, when they will then realize that they just went against everything they initially stood for in terms of getting away from government mandated currencies.

Because I am in it for the long term, I hope that when/if I one day spend my "eta" that I will do it directly.  I fully expect that I will never 'sell' up to 50% of the Monero I acquire in these early stages.  I actually like a modified form of Risto's plan, where every time the price goes up 10x you sell/trade 10% to increase the available supply and upgrade the quality of your life a little bit. 
 
That might be for dollars, land, stock, etc.... Whatever is valuable at the time. 
 
Price hits $40: I sell 10% of what I acquired at under $1.  Perhaps I buy a new car, and a tv finally. 
Price hits $400: I sell 10% and buy a house. 
$4000 Retire from my job and go full time Monero promotion, consulting, activist.  Sell 10% for travel and living expenses over the next several years. 
$40,000: Sell 10%.  Start a video game company (dream of my youth).
$400,000 Sell 10%.  Now comes major charity work such as the gifted and talent orphanage, plus humanist endeavors such as cryonics research (don't worry Hal, we ain't forgot about you) and AI work. 

$4,000,000: At this point we are among the richest people in the world, and personally I still hold 50% of the initial Monero I began with.  At these levels, 10% would be a ludicrous sum, and with it I could likely get elected to any public office would choose, start a new country, cover Montana in sour skittles, build a replica of The Labyrinth, etc etc.  This is where major contributions to humanity are possible.  Luxury is boring by this point and wealth of this magnitude is mainly used to decide how humanity will focus its attention and resources.  As always, connecting our species, seeking out talented humans born in suboptimal conditions, building AI, space travel, SETI, NASA, etc all become priorities.

 
I have already been toying with the idea of being more public in how much I own.  I feel this provides some trust due to the fact that I serve in a slightly official capacity.  Also, I hype the shit so much, it feels ethical to disclose that I am heavily invested.  As far as malicious actors down the road, they can fuck themselves.  You're welcome to look up how I handle a gun on YouTube, I don't negotiate with bad guys, and I fully believe in individual sovereignty.  There will be much easier marks out there, I guarantee it. 
 
I'm also considering some type of pledge... Like a pledge not to suddenly sell out of Monero for fiat during a bull market.  Us early adopters will hold a lot of wealth if Monero does what I think it will, and those who come later will be assured by a public promise that a certain percentage of our Monero wealth will always be held in trust.

Ok, I confess.  I've bumped up to 1MR for some additional caffeine.  I need to clean the house and stop yelling at Bitcoin talk and day dreaming.  I've got a girlfriend moving in next month, and she speaks Romanian so I told her a.) I'll have a clean house for her to arrive at and b.) imma put her to work translating Monero stuff into Romanian.  Romanians are a good people, and I told her she might be the woman who helps make it one of the richest nations in the world. 

Haha, that's a pretty optimistic view point AP... but I like where your head is at, and the pledge you made to only sell out at these historical land marks (even though I believe the last two are a little too far fetched for my imagination ).  It seems that you've left out the initial $4.00 mark sell out phase though, but I would imagine you would still hold on to all of your XMR either way at that point.

But in all seriousness, I can't see a world that would value XMR up to $400,000+ for a coin... I mean there are people who value security and would end up putting a lot of money into monero for that specific purpose... but I don't see a world valuing a crypto that much for a secure everyday transaction.  I think in the future there will be a 1:1 ratio of bitcoin/XMR and another coin that offers quick transactions, so with that in mind there would have to be a spread of the wealth, depending on what people value at the time (privacy, transparency, or speed).

[smoothie]

rabble rabble unfair distribution rabble rabble

So you are one of the "I missed the boat so therefore I hate it" types- Gotchya.

Where did you read that Monero won't explore other technologies when they get done with the core?

https://getmonero.org/design-goals/

My bad, it seems Monero has pivoted since I last researched the project. I haven't been around much the past couple years.

Perhaps you should do your research before shooting from the hip. 

[rpietila]

Because I am in it for the long term, I hope that when/if I one day spend my "eta" that I will do it directly.  I fully expect that I will never 'sell' up to 50% of the Monero I acquire in these early stages.  I actually like a modified form of Risto's plan, where every time the price goes up 10x you sell/trade 10% to increase the available supply and upgrade the quality of your life a little bit.  

I think it's optimal to sell a bit more, such as 1/3 of the remaining after every 10x (although you can skip the first one, like I did with Bitcoin).

Price hits $40: I sell 10% of what I acquired at under $1.  Perhaps I buy a new car, and a tv finally.  
Price hits $400: I sell 10% and buy a house.  
$4000 Retire from my job and go full time Monero promotion, consulting, activist.  Sell 10% for travel and living expenses over the next several years.  
$40,000: Sell 10%.  Start a video game company (dream of my youth).

With the exception of buying a TV (I don't need), I have done all this  

[smoothie]

Funny you say that, Monero has not been around for 2 years.  I think you stopped by for a quick afternoon Shill.

A cursory glance at his history shows a multi year agenda to pump bitshares and attack Monero... Unfortunately for him, math is not an opinion.

Now only if you could shoot from the hip with a AK-47 and change the answer to a math problem...then he would be on to something.

Nice short term bounce in the XMR price. Hoping it dips a bit.

[smoothie]

Because I am in it for the long term, I hope that when/if I one day spend my "eta" that I will do it directly.  I fully expect that I will never 'sell' up to 50% of the Monero I acquire in these early stages.  I actually like a modified form of Risto's plan, where every time the price goes up 10x you sell/trade 10% to increase the available supply and upgrade the quality of your life a little bit.  

I think it's optimal to sell a bit more, such as 1/3 of the remaining after every 10x (although you can skip the first one, like I did with Bitcoin).

Price hits $40: I sell 10% of what I acquired at under $1.  Perhaps I buy a new car, and a tv finally.  
Price hits $400: I sell 10% and buy a house.  
$4000 Retire from my job and go full time Monero promotion, consulting, activist.  Sell 10% for travel and living expenses over the next several years.  
$40,000: Sell 10%.  Start a video game company (dream of my youth).

With the exception of buying a TV (I don't need), I have done all this  

What's next on your list? Charity?

[Harpua]

So I have a question... in your eyes, when is the best time to gather as much monero as humanly possible?  Because I can personally see the price for monero stagnate around the $.35-$.90 for some time before the GUI comes out, and I think we still have a lot of time before that comes... I think that if I'm slowly but surely accumulating bitcoins as I go about my business with work, then I can judge later on in the future the best time to purchase a "massive" amount of XMR (in my eyes, probably not AP's).

So I guess the question becomes, even if the price goes above $1, $10, $100; will that make you stop buying monero in bulk and just hold on for the ride?

[rpietila]

Because I am in it for the long term, I hope that when/if I one day spend my "eta" that I will do it directly.  I fully expect that I will never 'sell' up to 50% of the Monero I acquire in these early stages.  I actually like a modified form of Risto's plan, where every time the price goes up 10x you sell/trade 10% to increase the available supply and upgrade the quality of your life a little bit.  

I think it's optimal to sell a bit more, such as 1/3 of the remaining after every 10x (although you can skip the first one, like I did with Bitcoin).

Price hits $40: I sell 10% of what I acquired at under $1.  Perhaps I buy a new car, and a tv finally.  
Price hits $400: I sell 10% and buy a house.  
$4000 Retire from my job and go full time Monero promotion, consulting, activist.  Sell 10% for travel and living expenses over the next several years.  
$40,000: Sell 10%.  Start a video game company (dream of my youth).

With the exception of buying a TV (I don't need), I have done all this  

What's next on your list? Charity?

Charity is not a potent way for changing the world. Perhaps going to prison and in the process becoming a global human rights leader could be the next step.

[smoothie]

Because I am in it for the long term, I hope that when/if I one day spend my "eta" that I will do it directly.  I fully expect that I will never 'sell' up to 50% of the Monero I acquire in these early stages.  I actually like a modified form of Risto's plan, where every time the price goes up 10x you sell/trade 10% to increase the available supply and upgrade the quality of your life a little bit.  

I think it's optimal to sell a bit more, such as 1/3 of the remaining after every 10x (although you can skip the first one, like I did with Bitcoin).

Price hits $40: I sell 10% of what I acquired at under $1.  Perhaps I buy a new car, and a tv finally.  
Price hits $400: I sell 10% and buy a house.  
$4000 Retire from my job and go full time Monero promotion, consulting, activist.  Sell 10% for travel and living expenses over the next several years.  
$40,000: Sell 10%.  Start a video game company (dream of my youth).

With the exception of buying a TV (I don't need), I have done all this  

What's next on your list? Charity?

Charity is not a potent way for changing the world. Perhaps going to prison and in the process becoming a global human rights leader could be the next step.

I guess it depends on how you see the word Charity.

Many human rights leaders donate their time and money to specific causes.

There are many in the broken world we live in where privacy is no longer a right but just a word.

XMR hopefully can help with this.

[americanpegasus]

Haha, that's a pretty optimistic view point AP... but I like where your head is at, and the pledge you made to only sell out at these historical land marks (even though I believe the last two are a little too far fetched for my imagination ).  It seems that you've left out the initial $4.00 mark sell out phase though, but I would imagine you would still hold on to all of your XMR either way at that point.

But in all seriousness, I can't see a world that would value XMR up to $400,000+ for a coin...

I like you, but I could not disagree more.  Since 2012 I have been studying money, math, economics, and cryptocurrency nearly full time.  I have some pretty stark revelations to share with you.  
  
First of all, you need to understand that humans are not biologically equipped to naturally understand exponential (and greater) curves, and our greatest flaw (not my words, but some other genius's) is our inability to realize when we're within one.  
  
The gross domestic product of the world is not a linear curve.... In fact, it's so steeply rising that it might not even be exponential.  Currently the entire world values itself at nearly 100 trillion dollars, but that is going vertical since the rise of the Internet.



The Internet only allowed us to speed up the velocity of information to the speed of light... What do you think will happen when there are no artificial limits on the velocity of value as well?  Look at what is currently happening to our economy through mismanagement and centralized money controls.



Dude, once the age of crypto gets in full swing the velocity of money is about to go fucking vertical.  That chart won't even be usable anymore, we will go off the scale by orders of magnitudes.  
  
All this is only going to accelerate the value of our species, not stagnate it.  
  
A hundred trillion?  Don't you see that by 2030 the global GDP will likely be well past 500 trillion and on its way to a quadrillion 1990 US dollars?  Holy shit dude, it's going to be absolutely ridiculous what applying limit break materia to both information and value will do.  In fact, the combination of those two might not have linear effects....  
  
It might be multiplicative.  
  
Global Value Pre-1990: (linear factor representing speed of printing press) X (linear factor representing speed of paper money exchanging hands)

Global value Now: (information at the speed of light, uncapped) X (speed of digital money to move through centralized institutions with multi-day wait times).
  
Global value Soon: (information at the speed of light, uncapped) x (money at the speed of light, uncapped).  

As you can see, if Monero really does become the private ledger for the world, $4 million (in today's dollars) is peanuts for the amount of value it would represent.  By 2040 - 2050 you could see a Monero ledger with a market "cap" in the literal quadrillions (again, in today's dollars).  
  
The reality of our future is gonna hyper-annihilate even the most bullish predictions you might make today .  . Exponential curves, man.  Exponential curves.  
  
Hell, look at that GDP curve again!  That's exponential on an exponential chart!  You know what that is?  That's hyper-exponential!  That's a god damned Knuth Curve!  Our species is going to Knuth, and you don't believe a Monero will one day be worth a paltry $4 million dollars!?  
  
And they cost 40 cents.  Today.  
  
This will go down in history as the most ridiculously undervalued asset in the history of mankind.  That cannot be overstated enough.

[americanpegasus]

Charity is not a potent way for changing the world. Perhaps going to prison and in the process becoming a global human rights leader could be the next step.

On the contrary all charity changes the world for the better, it's just that without proper strategy, shotgun charity does so at a horrifically inefficient rate.  
  
What is needed at this moment in human development is targetted charity.  This is where I came up with my idea of a gifted and talented orphanage.  Being an orphan that grew up in one of the worst educational systems and worst poverty America has to offer, I understand all too well the frustration behind being a sharp and curious mind stuck in an unfortunate situation.  
  
I want to globally seek out children who display exceptional intelligence and abilities and give them chance to move to a first world country and be schooled in one of the finest educational systems possible.  My orphans will be so well cultivated that top colleges around the world will throw scholarships their way once they are 18 years old.  
  
You can do the same, depending on your wealth.  There is a such thing as effective altruism though.  If you are only a single or double digit millionaire currently Risto, and truly believe you have large scale positive ambitions for mankind, it may make sense to forgo the bulk of charity for the time being (but everyone can do something - hell, even I find $20 here and there to throw at things like children's yoga and I am firmly middle class).  
  
However I think that once an individual's wealth exceeds $100 million in today's dollars, they have a social burden to try to undertake or finance some kind of large scale benevolent project.  That much wealth is pointless without a greater purpose. 
  
But congrats on starting your video game company; I'm jealous and hope to follow in your footsteps one day.  Also, you know I'm an idea factory, and I have some extremely profitable ideas (unique spins based on current trends) about how to create what will almost certainly be top 10 iOS apps with little capital required.  If you ever want to have lunch and discuss them, let me know.

[americanpegasus]

So I have a question... in your eyes, when is the best time to gather as much monero as humanly possible?  Because I can personally see the price for monero stagnate around the $.35-$.90 for some time before the GUI comes out, and I think we still have a lot of time before that comes... I think that if I'm slowly but surely accumulating bitcoins as I go about my business with work, then I can judge later on in the future the best time to purchase a "massive" amount of XMR (in my eyes, probably not AP's).

So I guess the question becomes, even if the price goes above $1, $10, $100; will that make you stop buying monero in bulk and just hold on for the ride?

.
 
No one can give you concrete financial advice here, nor should they.  Likely, none of us are licensed to.  Personally, I would continue to buy at market rates all the way up until I owned a full 1% or until my first target order-of-magnitude hits @ $10. 
 
I am middle class with a decent, but not great salary though, so I can't see ever owning nearly that much.  Nevertheless I can't imagine owning more than a percent would be beneficial; at that point if it went where I think, that would be enough money to do anything I could ever imagine, and if I was wrong, that's as much as I'd ever want to be committed to something. 

[SmoothCurves]

$400k XMR. Wow...what a bewildering thought. I would invest in Regenerative Medicine, Deep Learning and Nanosystems.

[jehst]

$400k XMR. Wow...what a bewildering thought. I would invest in Regenerative Medicine, Deep Learning and Nanosystems.

I would get two chicks at the same time

[smoothie]

$400k XMR. Wow...what a bewildering thought. I would invest in Regenerative Medicine, Deep Learning and Nanosystems.

I would get two chicks at the same time

That's kind of mind boggling that paper money = gets chicks.

What does XMR = ?

Gets chicks, cars, houses, ? lol

We live in a messed up world that paper buys lots of shit. 

[boolberry]

Also, once the GUI is done I plan on converting a small portion of my salary every check (1% to 5%) and spending it on Monero related goods and services around the Internet to encourage economic velocity.  Even if it sounds impossible initially, lots of artists, programmers, and other creatives don't mind getting paid in a new currency.  Back during the Dogedays I successfully spent hundreds of dollars paying people in Dogecoin to help me create things. 

How did you find people to accept DOGE (assuming they did not already accept DOGE before you contacted them). Why cant you start doing that now by recommending they use the webwallet, or unofficial GUI if they don't like the command line?

If everyone reading this could find just one person to accept Monero (for something as small as a haircut, karate or tennis lesson) it would be a good start.

[americanpegasus]

$400k XMR. Wow...what a bewildering thought. I would invest in Regenerative Medicine, Deep Learning and Nanosystems.

I would get two chicks at the same time

You guys are goobers.  First of all, you don't need a $400,000 Monero to do that.  300 euro and a trip to any red light district in Germany will grant that wish.  
  
Second, once you get used to it, you'll inevitably look for the next rung on the ladder.

Luxury, orgies, and ego masturbation are all fun but all ultimately meaningless to a sufficient intelligence.  That's not saying don't go get some of that if you can afford it, but just don't define your life through it and don't think it will bring you a sense of fulfillment, because it won't.  
  
You will initially be swimming in heaven, but eventually your brain will adjust, and you will find yourself feeling more or less how you feel right now.  What you are really craving can't be bought on the street... It has to be earned though participating in the advancement of civilization itself.  
  
How much would you pay to know the real truth about the universe and reality? (To the extent of a human's ability to comprehend)?  
  
How much would you pay for enhanced implants that will advance you beyond even the genius of our greatest members?  
  
How much do you think another year of life is worth to a man on his deathbed from terminal cancer?  
  
What about immortality itself?  
  
Non-existence is coming for us all, whether we shield our eyes from its gaze with a hooker's thighs or not.  

[americanpegasus]

How did you find people to accept DOGE (assuming they did not already accept DOGE before you contacted them). Why cant you start doing that now by recommending they use the webwallet, or unofficial GUI if they don't like the command line?

Now that you mention it, there was actually a spectacular subreddit /r/dogemarket where a functional economy emerged that focused on legal items and was exceptionally well organized.  It was amazing back in 2013... Things were being bought and sold constantly, and that's where I hired some college students to do work for me.  
  
We will definitely need a kicking subreddit market like Doge had to jumpstart our economy.