[XMR] Monero Speculation

[americanpegasus]

Hey all, I have been taking a slight absence from online Monero-land in the past month. 
 
But not IRL.  I've been excitedly jabbering to anyone at work who will listen, and many are now convinced (and more importantly can elaborate themselves on) why Monero may be the proper successor to Bitcoin.  There is actually a small (and growing) group of people at work who are getting excited about cryptocurrency - up from zero a few months ago. 
 
A few are actually considering buying a conservative amount, as if it were a stock.  Next up is a workshop on properly securing Monero for a layman - something that will have to be offloaded onto a MyMonero account for now, but hopefully one day will be doable with a GUI and a secure Linux laptop.

[smooth]

as if it were a stock.

I would clearly remind them of the differences between stocks and cryptocurrencies, which have some properties of stocks (especially small speculative stocks), some of commodities, and some of currencies.

Next up is a workshop on properly securing Monero for a layman - something that will have to be offloaded onto a MyMonero account for now, but hopefully one day will be doable with a GUI and a secure Linux laptop.

It's not exactly '4dummies' but paper wallets can certainly be created offline with simplewallet (even without having a daemon running). Proper paper wallets for all coins have always required a bit of extra work, but are still important for secure long-term storage.

[americanpegasus]

I would clearly remind them of the differences between stocks and cryptocurrencies, which have some properties of stocks (especially small speculative stocks), some of commodities, and some of currencies.

Yes, this is a frequent source of discussion: this is not a stock - this is fundamentally a new form of money itself.  It is a new financial universe that must expand to be useful, and for it to expand it must go through a speculative tier where people are "buying the colorful beads" because they predict others will eventually want to use them to transact with.  Obviously, the potential for cryptocurrency goes beyond a simple stock.  At it's best, a stock will only achieve dominance of the speculative tier - there will never be a transactional economy using stock certificates, and on the flip side: a cryptocurrency almost certainly needs a transactional economy to emerge in order to maintain legitimate long-term value if it is initially backed by 'nothing'.  
  
As well, I make sure to mention many reminders of the risks involved and that money transferred into crypto-assets is "as good as gone" (so pretend you've already lost it).  

It's not exactly '4dummies' but paper wallets can certainly be created offline with simplewallet (even without having a daemon running). Proper paper wallets for all coins have always required a bit of extra work, but are still important for secure long-term storage.

 
  
Thanks for the tip.  

[dnaleor]

I would clearly remind them of the differences between stocks and cryptocurrencies, which have some properties of stocks (especially small speculative stocks), some of commodities, and some of currencies.

Yes, this is a frequent source of discussion: this is not a stock - this is fundamentally a new form of money itself.  It is a new financial universe that must expand to be useful, and for it to expand it must go through a speculative tier where people are "buying the colorful beads" because they predict others will eventually want to use them to transact with.  Obviously, the potential for cryptocurrency goes beyond a simple stock.  At it's best, a stock will only achieve dominance of the speculative tier - there will never be a transactional economy using stock certificates, and on the flip side: a cryptocurrency almost certainly needs a transactional economy to emerge in order to maintain legitimate long-term value if it is initially backed by 'nothing'.  
  
As well, I make sure to mention many reminders of the risks involved and that money transferred into crypto-assets is "as good as gone" (so pretend you've already lost it).  

It's not exactly '4dummies' but paper wallets can certainly be created offline with simplewallet (even without having a daemon running). Proper paper wallets for all coins have always required a bit of extra work, but are still important for secure long-term storage.

 
  
Thanks for the tip.  

for checking if the transaction arrived, I recommend xmrtests.llcoins.net/viewkey.html

[LucyLovesCrypto]

Most alts spend >90% of their lives falling against bitcoin and <10% of their lives rising against bitcoin.

altcoin investors must get used to the idea that we will spend 90% of our time watching our money shrink and 10% of our time watching it explode.  

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

The large amount of XMR available at low cost for borrowing keeps the rallies tamped down.

But when too many short sellers try to cover at once, it's off to the moon.

This is exactly why margin trading is dangerous. It has the potential to increase volatility.

[americanpegasus]

Most alts spend >90% of their lives falling against bitcoin and <10% of their lives rising against bitcoin.

altcoin investors must get used to the idea that we will spend 90% of our time watching our money shrink and 10% of our time watching it explode.  

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

 
 
If this is true, it will fulfill the fractal formation prophecy that I have foreseen.  That time would occur anywhere from now until next Summer.

[iCEBREAKER]

Most alts spend >90% of their lives falling against bitcoin and <10% of their lives rising against bitcoin.

altcoin investors must get used to the idea that we will spend 90% of our time watching our money shrink and 10% of our time watching it explode.  

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

The large amount of XMR available at low cost for borrowing keeps the rallies tamped down.

But when too many short sellers try to cover at once, it's off to the moon.

This is exactly why margin trading is dangerous. It has the potential to increase volatility.

Not sure about that.  I've always believed derivative markets smooth out volatility via various mechanisms, such as transfer of information about future prices to the present.

Only in a crony capitalist situation where gambling is encouraged by bailouts would options be dangerous.

[chennan]

Most alts spend >90% of their lives falling against bitcoin and <10% of their lives rising against bitcoin.

altcoin investors must get used to the idea that we will spend 90% of our time watching our money shrink and 10% of our time watching it explode. 

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

 
 
If this is true, it will fulfill the fractal formation prophecy that I have foreseen.  That time would occur anywhere from now until next Summer.

Just curious as to why you think that it would be around this upcoming summer for this type of thing to happen? I mean, I do realize by now all of the pampers have dumped to the point where they have all gotten out to ride the bull Bitcoin train, but what makes this summer so important for monero? Is it that there is the halving coming up for Bitcoin and all the people who have kept monero are in it for the long haul?

[owm123]

Most alts spend >90% of their lives falling against bitcoin and <10% of their lives rising against bitcoin.

altcoin investors must get used to the idea that we will spend 90% of our time watching our money shrink and 10% of our time watching it explode. 

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

 
 
If this is true, it will fulfill the fractal formation prophecy that I have foreseen.  That time would occur anywhere from now until next Summer.

Just curious as to why you think that it would be around this upcoming summer for this type of thing to happen? I mean, I do realize by now all of the pampers have dumped to the point where they have all gotten out to ride the bull Bitcoin train, but what makes this summer so important for monero? Is it that there is the halving coming up for Bitcoin and all the people who have kept monero are in it for the long haul?

I think gui should be releases in summer. And mid next year there should be a hard fork of monero. But not sure if this is correct though.

[Rias]

I think gui should be releases in summer. And mid next year there should be a hard fork of monero. But not sure if this is correct though.

Maybe not the best place to ask, but why does it take so much more time?

[macsga]

I think gui should be releases in summer. And mid next year there should be a hard fork of monero. But not sure if this is correct though.

Maybe not the best place to ask, but why does it take so much more time?

A GUI already exists, but it's external. Works fine even with the latest beta binaries (tested).

Link: http://monero.org/monerox-client/

[Bassica]

I think gui should be releases in summer. And mid next year there should be a hard fork of monero. But not sure if this is correct though.

Maybe not the best place to ask, but why does it take so much more time?

It's a matter of prioritization, really. Check out the dev roadmap on getmonero.org, and see what they've done instead.

[GingerAle]

I think gui should be releases in summer. And mid next year there should be a hard fork of monero. But not sure if this is correct though.

Maybe not the best place to ask, but why does it take so much more time?

It's a matter of prioritization, really. Check out the dev roadmap on getmonero.org, and see what they've done instead.

As mentioned, there are GUIs available. I actually prefer jwinterm's light wallet.
https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/166/lightwallet-a-lightweight-monero-gui-account-manager

I really, truly, do not understand the "official" GUI thing. How many people use the official bitcoin GUI? The best I can muster, I think the GUI thing is at best a red herring or at worst something monerians tell themselves for comfort regarding the price.

If one is truly concerned about price, then the best investment of time is probably into merchant integrations. Hell, the reason monero isn't on ALL of the exchanges is because 1) the "official" binaries eat your memory and 2) in general its so different than bitcoin these exchange sharks don't want to deal with it. If there was a detailed, step-by step guide on how to accept monero deposits *and* execute withdrawals *and* the official release only used 50 MB of memory, it would pop up more places.

Ultimately it takes so much more time because its not really important,  - so exactly what was said about prioritization. And as I've mentioned before, the prioritization chosen has direct effects on the security of the network. Imagine if the core team *had* continued on its work with the GUI as its #1 priority.... presumably, based on the logic of everyone that pines for a GUI, the introduction of the GUI would cause a massive surge in adoption. THis surge in adoption would then cause the blockchain to grow at a much faster rate than it already did. So now the blockchain is 10 gigs, and 5 people can run nodes....

the move of the blockchain to the database increases the security of the network by increasing node count and distribution (read = not datacenter), and as this is a financial network, this is *the* most important thing.

Focusing on the GUI is like if Ferrari spent their time focusing on the steering wheel. They don't.

[GingerAle]

Ultimately, the name of the game is here patience and persistence.

You know why I didn't get into bitcoin 5-6 years ago when I heard about it? I didn't believe it. You know why I started to get into it about 1-2 years ago? Because it had been around for 5 years.

Monero is currently in this same boat. its novel technology. we need to support it in order for it to be worth supporting.

[dreamspark]

Double bottom at 0.00097 or deeper?

My moneys on deeper.

[Rias]

If one is truly concerned about price, then the best investment of time is probably into merchant integrations. Hell, the reason monero isn't on ALL of the exchanges is because 1) the "official" binaries eat your memory and 2) in general its so different than bitcoin these exchange sharks don't want to deal with it. If there was a detailed, step-by step guide on how to accept monero deposits *and* execute withdrawals *and* the official release only used 50 MB of memory, it would pop up more places.

I'm pretty sure that in case there is huge demand for the coin, it is integrated into exchanges no matter what. Look at Ethereum; it differs from Bitcoin but is widely adopted. There is a reason for that since Ethereum is overhyped and promises radical novelty. It has unprecedented demand (or stimulates it some other way).

What is the direction for Monero here? Straithforward compatibility with Bitcoin is not an option technologically. Official release of LMDB may be a trigger for a larger adoption, but IMO it's much more of chicken and egg dilemma in large rather than this tech showstopper. Improved integration doesn't bring demand per se.

The official GUI that last year we saw screenshots of can lower entrance barriers for users. Another option is, possibly, a clearer website. It will have nothing to do with the price, but it may increase new users conversion.

[rpietila]

Ultimately, the name of the game is here patience and persistence.

The name of the game is Crypto Kingdom. Soon open to new players again

[Quicken]

As mentioned, there are GUIs available. I actually prefer jwinterm's light wallet.
https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/166/lightwallet-a-lightweight-monero-gui-account-manager

As do I.

I really, truly, do not understand the "official" GUI thing. How many people use the official bitcoin GUI? The best I can muster, I think the GUI thing is at best a red herring or at worst something monerians tell themselves for comfort regarding the price.

IMHO, the official part matters more earlier than later, and I'd argue it also matters more for a privacy focussed coin like Monero. Solidity over style is good. I'm absolutely fine with the GUI being lower priority than the database, but ease of use in general matters.

If one is truly concerned about price, then the best investment of time is probably into merchant integrations. Hell, the reason monero isn't on ALL of the exchanges is because 1) the "official" binaries eat your memory and 2) in general its so different than bitcoin these exchange sharks don't want to deal with it. If there was a detailed, step-by step guide on how to accept monero deposits *and* execute withdrawals *and* the official release only used 50 MB of memory, it would pop up more places.

Ultimately it takes so much more time because its not really important,  - so exactly what was said about prioritization. And as I've mentioned before, the prioritization chosen has direct effects on the security of the network. Imagine if the core team *had* continued on its work with the GUI as its #1 priority.... presumably, based on the logic of everyone that pines for a GUI, the introduction of the GUI would cause a massive surge in adoption. THis surge in adoption would then cause the blockchain to grow at a much faster rate than it already did. So now the blockchain is 10 gigs, and 5 people can run nodes....

the move of the blockchain to the database increases the security of the network by increasing node count and distribution (read = not datacenter), and as this is a financial network, this is *the* most important thing.

Focusing on the GUI is like if Ferrari spent their time focusing on the steering wheel. They don't.

A GUI is all of the interface, and the appearance - so that's the Ferrari's sleek exterior and interior etc, etc.

[MoneroMooo]

I think gui should be releases in summer. And mid next year there should be a hard fork of monero. But not sure if this is correct though.

Maybe not the best place to ask, but why does it take so much more time?

Because nobody's working on one.

[dEBRUYNE]

I think gui should be releases in summer. And mid next year there should be a hard fork of monero. But not sure if this is correct though.

Maybe not the best place to ask, but why does it take so much more time?

Because nobody's working on one.

Which is basically the same as Bassica's answer :-P

I think gui should be releases in summer. And mid next year there should be a hard fork of monero. But not sure if this is correct though.

Maybe not the best place to ask, but why does it take so much more time?

It's a matter of prioritization, really. Check out the dev roadmap on getmonero.org, and see what they've done instead.

@Rias, I am curious, how would you improve the website? I think it is fairly OK at the moment.