Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[dooglus]

Can anyone get me a copy of http://www.satoshidice.com/bet-options.php or have an old copy?  My script doesn't work without it, and the site isn't responding for me.

Shot you an email.

Perfect, thanks.

Daily report coming soon. 

[dooglus]

Shot you an email.

Perfect, thanks.

Daily report coming soon. 

It looks like bets are still being processed:

Total of 34 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-16 05:26pm (up to block 231720)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   128265 |       3 (0.00002) |  126282 |    1980 |    1593.81 |    3842.45 |   148.53 |  -2248.63 | 241.086
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    10382 |       0 (0.00000) |    9824 |     558 |     148.40 |       0.33 |    22.55 |    148.07 |   0.223
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    10343 |       2 (0.00020) |    9859 |     482 |     154.91 |     320.10 |    14.96 |   -165.19 | 206.639
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    22672 |       5 (0.00023) |   22168 |     499 |     540.70 |     433.55 |    10.13 |    107.14 |  80.184
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23074 |       4 (0.00018) |   22599 |     471 |     829.75 |     566.40 |    22.15 |    263.35 |  68.261
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    28308 |      13 (0.00047) |   27874 |     421 |    1590.71 |    1830.57 |     1.48 |   -239.86 | 115.079
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29481 |      35 (0.00121) |   28935 |     511 |    2125.03 |    1740.09 |   116.94 |    384.94 |  81.885
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21455 |      39 (0.00186) |   20930 |     486 |    2399.25 |    1567.98 |    48.46 |    831.26 |  65.353
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26644 |     116 (0.00442) |   26114 |     414 |    6018.63 |    8661.72 |    13.27 |  -2643.09 | 143.915
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38650 |     308 (0.00813) |   37591 |     751 |    8388.36 |    6943.92 |    10.19 |   1444.44 |  82.780
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   138950 |    2110 (0.01525) |  136244 |     596 |   42503.42 |   36904.01 |     2.37 |   5599.41 |  86.826
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26130 |     596 (0.02314) |   25155 |     379 |    7983.48 |    8577.96 |    15.15 |   -594.48 | 107.446
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    88903 |    2714 (0.03067) |   85777 |     412 |   43150.41 |   38554.09 |     9.41 |   4596.32 |  89.348
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30862 |    1407 (0.04631) |   28972 |     483 |    9845.40 |   10652.06 |    25.39 |   -806.65 | 108.193
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36858 |    2257 (0.06192) |   34191 |     410 |    7751.56 |    7535.99 |    31.41 |    215.57 |  97.219
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52452 |    4776 (0.09196) |   47161 |     515 |   16955.63 |   18496.68 |     7.53 |  -1541.05 | 109.089
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   202998 |   24822 (0.12262) |  177601 |     575 |   99940.56 |   99358.75 |   100.72 |    581.81 |  99.418
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   114995 |   20989 (0.18352) |   93383 |     623 |  178869.22 |  180378.16 |  3315.17 |  -1508.93 | 100.844
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   280990 |   68430 (0.24411) |  211894 |     666 |  376671.72 |  362975.59 |  2322.82 |  13696.13 |  96.364
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   274367 |  100593 (0.36751) |  173125 |     649 |  593129.71 |  584326.49 |  1013.47 |   8803.22 |  98.516
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1194117 |  581866 (0.48803) |  610409 |    1842 |  910318.57 |  892202.82 |  2925.65 |  18115.75 |  98.010
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   678462 |  338197 (0.49956) |  338796 |    1469 |  688182.20 |  671060.84 |  6522.53 |  17121.36 |  97.512
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   390075 |  286155 (0.73514) |  103097 |     823 |  309822.00 |  302396.88 |  6172.58 |   7425.12 |  97.603
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    88431 |   69726 (0.79416) |   18072 |     633 |   64967.41 |   63540.04 |  1187.94 |   1427.37 |  97.803
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    79982 |   67922 (0.85675) |   11357 |     703 |   82123.83 |   81330.52 |   401.00 |    793.30 |  99.034
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   127891 |  116464 (0.91617) |   10656 |     771 |   75977.21 |   74885.42 |     1.46 |   1091.78 |  98.563
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21404 |   19464 (0.97903) |     417 |    1523 |   24960.13 |   24541.67 |   240.82 |    418.46 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4045164 | 1654079           | 2371734 |   19351 |  828422.94 |  814106.53 |   298.01 |  14316.41 |  98.272
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   121977 |   54934           |   66749 |     294 | 2728519.23 | 2669518.67 | 24406.21 |  59000.55 |  97.838
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4167141 | 1709013           | 2438483 |   19645 | 3556942.17 | 3483625.20 | 24704.22 |  73316.97 |  97.939
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73316.97153889 BTC (2.061%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3387.94657500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69929.02496389 BTC (1.966%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69929.02496389 BTC (1.966%)
Profit This Month:           2086.09839627 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13388152  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7635178  (57.0%)
Blockchain MB:   5832.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3150.8  (54.0%)

[BRules]

Can anyone get me a copy of http://www.satoshidice.com/bet-options.php or have an old copy?  My script doesn't work without it, and the site isn't responding for me.

http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.satoshidice.com/bet-options.php

[dooglus]

http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.satoshidice.com/bet-options.php

Clever! 

[dooglus]

Total of 43 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-17 01:42pm (up to block 231867)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   128752 |       3 (0.00002) |  126755 |    1994 |    1600.42 |    3842.48 |   150.77 |  -2242.05 | 240.092
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    10409 |       0 (0.00000) |    9851 |     558 |     148.71 |       0.33 |    22.55 |    148.38 |   0.224
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    10557 |       2 (0.00020) |   10072 |     483 |     157.08 |     320.11 |    14.96 |   -163.03 | 203.791
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    22724 |       5 (0.00022) |   22220 |     499 |     541.29 |     433.56 |    10.13 |    107.73 |  80.097
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23115 |       4 (0.00018) |   22637 |     474 |     830.36 |     566.40 |    22.15 |    263.96 |  68.212
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    28330 |      13 (0.00047) |   27896 |     421 |    1590.95 |    1830.57 |     1.48 |   -239.62 | 115.062
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29517 |      35 (0.00121) |   28971 |     511 |    2125.46 |    1740.09 |   116.94 |    385.36 |  81.869
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21503 |      39 (0.00186) |   20977 |     487 |    2399.78 |    1567.99 |    48.47 |    831.79 |  65.339
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26685 |     116 (0.00442) |   26155 |     414 |    6027.00 |    8661.77 |    13.27 |  -2634.77 | 143.716
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38693 |     308 (0.00812) |   37632 |     753 |    8398.17 |    6943.97 |    10.20 |   1454.20 |  82.684
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   139255 |    2116 (0.01526) |  136542 |     597 |   42527.85 |   36907.97 |     2.37 |   5619.88 |  86.785
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26177 |     596 (0.02310) |   25202 |     379 |    7984.38 |    8577.97 |    15.15 |   -593.59 | 107.434
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    89115 |    2721 (0.03068) |   85982 |     412 |   43191.24 |   38556.69 |     9.41 |   4634.55 |  89.270
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30920 |    1411 (0.04636) |   29026 |     483 |    9846.53 |   10653.98 |    25.39 |   -807.44 | 108.200
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36983 |    2263 (0.06188) |   34308 |     412 |    7759.54 |    7541.04 |    31.42 |    218.49 |  97.184
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52558 |    4783 (0.09191) |   47256 |     519 |   16968.67 |   18508.79 |     7.55 |  -1540.12 | 109.076
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   203185 |   24849 (0.12265) |  177754 |     582 |  100042.01 |   99372.87 |   100.74 |    669.13 |  99.331
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   115269 |   21040 (0.18352) |   93605 |     624 |  178948.66 |  180428.78 |  3315.17 |  -1480.12 | 100.827
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   281818 |   68619 (0.24407) |  212527 |     672 |  377516.98 |  363281.90 |  2322.85 |  14235.08 |  96.229
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   275041 |  100845 (0.36753) |  173541 |     655 |  593177.78 |  584382.60 |  1013.49 |   8795.17 |  98.517
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1195771 |  582670 (0.48803) |  611255 |    1846 |  910817.13 |  892581.83 |  2925.68 |  18235.29 |  97.998
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   679528 |  338757 (0.49961) |  339292 |    1479 |  688515.79 |  671404.46 |  6522.56 |  17111.33 |  97.515
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   391095 |  286880 (0.73508) |  103389 |     826 |  309912.81 |  302477.90 |  6172.59 |   7434.91 |  97.601
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    88762 |   69986 (0.79419) |   18137 |     639 |   64999.09 |   63572.31 |  1187.96 |   1426.77 |  97.805
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    80220 |   68126 (0.85679) |   11387 |     707 |   82178.43 |   81384.70 |   401.02 |    793.73 |  99.034
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   128686 |  117182 (0.91618) |   10721 |     783 |   76041.52 |   74945.51 |     1.50 |   1096.01 |  98.559
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21485 |   19528 (0.97909) |     417 |    1540 |   24968.85 |   24550.43 |   240.84 |    418.42 |  98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4054092 | 1657938           | 2376699 |   19455 |  829408.87 |  815103.72 |   300.53 |  14305.14 |  98.275
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122061 |   54959           |   66808 |     294 | 2729807.73 | 2669933.39 | 24406.21 |  59874.34 |  97.807
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4176153 | 1712897           | 2443507 |   19749 | 3559216.61 | 3485037.12 | 24706.74 |  74179.48 |  97.916
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74179.48867404 BTC (2.084%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3397.37437500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70782.11429904 BTC (1.989%)
Pending Liabilities:          -24.96170423 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70807.07600327 BTC (1.989%)
Profit This Month:           2964.14943565 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13433023  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7651779  (57.0%)
Blockchain MB:   5853.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3157.8  (53.9%)

[dooglus]

Looks like the big jump in profits was a result of this failed martingale sequence:

Wed Apr 17 13:20:57 2013 <16000 231819 aea2e755efadde75:0  1EkXZZfMqYEXj5T689syiimvYN4PFfuEFJ BET    12.30000000 LOSE   -12.23850000
Wed Apr 17 13:27:21 2013 <16000 231821 13613d32453bb1ae:1  14RazJ3oGtEyxKnvPGQQxHoHrRbDQqYvfg BET    18.40000000 LOSE   -18.30800000
Wed Apr 17 13:37:15 2013 <16000 231822 1c36083d894585f2:1  1EkXZZfMqYEXj5T689syiimvYN4PFfuEFJ BET    27.60000000 LOSE   -27.46200000
Wed Apr 17 14:03:11 2013 <16000 231823 308a46aafddb22a5:1  19mPxu3eUxqew7hYaPZrmUNf2GqiQkwLKv BET    41.50000000 LOSE   -41.29250000
Wed Apr 17 14:14:16 2013 <16000 231824 93213ca4a91601b9:0  14RazJ3oGtEyxKnvPGQQxHoHrRbDQqYvfg BET    62.30000000 LOSE   -61.98850000
Wed Apr 17 14:17:20 2013 <16000 231825 bc1e5665abd5305d:0  1DNvjHR4Ci9proKTu9b1AYKXpFYAnkzyV4 BET    93.50000000 LOSE   -93.03250000
Wed Apr 17 14:33:09 2013 <16000 231826 cd4f6057b5f49767:0  14mhaw2xBn6wvnQxdnwtQuBT7cVvsKeKEV BET   140.30000000 LOSE  -139.59850000
Wed Apr 17 14:47:30 2013 <16000 231827 9d21aede242797f2:1  1EkXZZfMqYEXj5T689syiimvYN4PFfuEFJ BET   210.50000000 LOSE  -209.44750000

[miscreanity]

If you have some US dollars and are considering investing in Apple stock, you don't take the price of oil into account (unless you're also considering investing in oil).

In the same way if you have Bitcoin and are considering investing in SDICE, you don't take the price of US dollars into account (unless you're also considering investing in fiat).

Apple is not denominated in oil, or it would have to be taken into account.

If the Bitcoin economy holds $1,000,000,000 of wealth at 11,000,000 units, each bitcoin is worth about $91. Assuming SD is worth $10,000,000, that would make the business worth 110,000 bitcoins.

If the exchange rate doubles, making the Bitcoin economy worth $2,000,000,000, but SD remains at the same absolute valuation, it should then be worth 55,000 bitcoins.

SD has been estimated to be worth $100-200,000,000, which I think is appropriate. This means that at a current economy size of $1 billion, SD should be worth 10-20% of the entire stock of bitcoins, or 1.1-2.2mm BTC. Therefore, the share price should be about 3-6x higher than the 0.0033 level. Hypothetically.

Of course, there are other factors, but that shows the USD relation due to both it and Bitcoin being concurrent measures and stores of value.

[dooglus]

Apple is not denominated in oil, or it would have to be taken into account.

That was kind of my point.

Apple isn't denominated in oil, and SatoshiDice isn't denominated in dollars.

[dooglus]

Total of 39 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-18 12:25pm (up to block 232018)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   129419 |       3 (0.00002) |  127410 |    2006 |    1610.75 |    3842.53 |   150.80 |  -2231.77 | 238.554
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    10743 |       0 (0.00000) |   10184 |     559 |     152.14 |       0.35 |    22.55 |    151.79 |   0.230
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    10921 |       2 (0.00019) |   10433 |     486 |     160.82 |     320.13 |    14.96 |   -159.31 | 199.059
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    22771 |       5 (0.00022) |   22263 |     503 |     542.00 |     433.56 |    10.14 |    108.43 |  79.993
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23210 |       4 (0.00018) |   22732 |     474 |     831.78 |     566.41 |    22.15 |    265.36 |  68.096
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    28372 |      13 (0.00047) |   27937 |     422 |    1591.91 |    1830.58 |     1.48 |   -238.67 | 114.993
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29550 |      35 (0.00121) |   29004 |     511 |    2126.17 |    1740.09 |   116.94 |    386.07 |  81.842
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21542 |      39 (0.00185) |   21014 |     489 |    2400.46 |    1567.99 |    48.47 |    832.47 |  65.320
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26784 |     116 (0.00440) |   26254 |     414 |    6043.05 |    8661.85 |    13.27 |  -2618.79 | 143.336
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38787 |     309 (0.00812) |   37724 |     754 |    8412.76 |    6945.29 |    10.21 |   1467.47 |  82.557
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   139467 |    2120 (0.01527) |  136747 |     600 |   42609.34 |   36911.57 |     2.39 |   5697.77 |  86.628
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26208 |     596 (0.02308) |   25230 |     382 |    7984.82 |    8577.97 |    15.16 |   -593.15 | 107.428
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    89393 |    2732 (0.03070) |   86247 |     414 |   43328.21 |   38580.63 |     9.42 |   4747.57 |  89.043
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30966 |    1415 (0.04642) |   29065 |     486 |    9848.18 |   10655.11 |    25.40 |   -806.93 | 108.194
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    37324 |    2291 (0.06207) |   34621 |     412 |    7781.56 |    7573.64 |    31.42 |    207.91 |  97.328
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52681 |    4793 (0.09189) |   47367 |     521 |   16986.15 |   18522.99 |     7.56 |  -1536.83 | 109.048
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   203402 |   24879 (0.12267) |  177940 |     583 |  100314.35 |   99591.19 |   100.74 |    723.16 |  99.279
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   115645 |   21105 (0.18349) |   93916 |     624 |  179105.62 |  180678.32 |  3315.17 |  -1572.70 | 100.878
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   283424 |   69007 (0.24407) |  213733 |     684 |  377727.99 |  363545.08 |  2322.87 |  14182.90 |  96.245
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   275935 |  101182 (0.36757) |  174090 |     663 |  593544.23 |  584807.34 |  1013.54 |   8736.88 |  98.528
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1197817 |  583716 (0.48807) |  612243 |    1858 |  911159.45 |  892958.92 |  2925.72 |  18200.53 |  98.002
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   680501 |  339249 (0.49963) |  339755 |    1497 |  688697.66 |  671604.61 |  6522.65 |  17093.05 |  97.518
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   391744 |  287343 (0.73506) |  103567 |     834 |  309956.74 |  302519.35 |  6172.63 |   7437.38 |  97.601
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    89046 |   70212 (0.79421) |   18193 |     641 |   65035.82 |   63598.40 |  1187.97 |   1437.41 |  97.790
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    80686 |   68524 (0.85685) |   11448 |     714 |   82272.11 |   81485.45 |   401.04 |    786.65 |  99.044
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   129211 |  117648 (0.91615) |   10768 |     795 |   76138.63 |   75039.26 |     1.55 |   1099.37 |  98.556
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21604 |   19621 (0.97914) |     418 |    1565 |   24976.25 |   24557.84 |   240.91 |    418.40 |  98.325
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4064925 | 1661947           | 2383381 |   19597 |  830381.91 |  816103.70 |   301.03 |  14278.21 |  98.281
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122228 |   55012           |   66922 |     294 | 2730957.16 | 2671012.87 | 24406.21 |  59944.29 |  97.805
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4187153 | 1716959           | 2450303 |   19891 | 3561339.07 | 3487116.57 | 24707.25 |  74222.50 |  97.916
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74222.50174097 BTC (2.084%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3408.94037500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70813.56136597 BTC (1.988%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70813.56136597 BTC (1.988%)
Profit This Month:           2970.63479835 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13479857  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7672350  (56.9%)
Blockchain MB:   5874.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3166.2  (53.9%)

[miscreanity]

Apple is not denominated in oil, or it would have to be taken into account.

That was kind of my point.

Apple isn't denominated in oil, and SatoshiDice isn't denominated in dollars.

True, but bitcoins generally are denominated in another currency, and will be until the system is large and stable enough to act independently.

Cross currency valuation acts like a fulcrum. Replace bitcoins with euros in calculations and the same situation arises.

[furuknap]

True, but bitcoins generally are denominated in another currency, and will be until the system is large and stable enough to act independently.

What we need is a USD-exchange, where you can buy USD denominated in Bitcoins rather than the other way around.

"OMG! USD is crashing! It's dropped almost 50% today! Sell, sell, sell!"

.b

[Picklee]

True, but bitcoins generally are denominated in another currency

No, no... That's like saying "USD are denominated in EUR". (And let's be frank, we all know that USD is really denominated in CNY!)

APPL is denominated in USD.
SD is denominated in BTC.

You could buy oil with USD, but that doesn't mean that oil is also denominated in APPL.

[bitpop]

What is sd?
SD is denominated in BTC.

[ThunderSheep]

What is sd?
SD is denominated in BTC.

SD is Satoshi Dice.

[bitpop]

Ooohh didnt get enough nicotine yet

[miscreanity]

No, no... That's like saying "USD are denominated in EUR". (And let's be frank, we all know that USD is really denominated in CNY!)

APPL is denominated in USD.
SD is denominated in BTC.

You could buy oil with USD, but that doesn't mean that oil is also denominated in APPL.

Temperature is measured using several different metrics, mostly Fahrenheit, Celsius, and Kelvin. Likewise, wealth is measured by numerous yardsticks, primarily USD, EUR, JPY, etc. Bitcoins and dollars are simply different methods of measuring and tracking wealth.

Imagine a sponge in a swimming pool. The sponge absorbs 1% of the water in the pool. Now replace the pool with a lake; the sponge might hold only 0.01% of that water.

In the above example, the pool water is all the wealth in the Bitcoin system and the sponge is SD. The lake is the wealth in the USD economy. If Bitcoin and USD switch places, SD does not change - only its share of the overall economy does. So unless SD grows to maintain its proportion to the total amount of wealth in the system, the share price will decline relative to the metric - in our case, BTC.

Ask yourself whether a gambling site can comprise 10% of the Bitcoin economy for years when there are so many businesses jumping into the system.

[TimJBenham]

In the above example, the pool water is all the wealth in the Bitcoin system and the sponge is SD. The lake is the wealth in the USD economy. If Bitcoin and USD switch places, SD does not change - only its share of the overall economy does. So unless SD grows to maintain its proportion to the total amount of wealth in the system, the share price will decline relative to the metric - in our case, BTC.

Ask yourself whether a gambling site can comprise 10% of the Bitcoin economy for years when there are so many businesses jumping into the system.

A corollary of this is you shouldn't buy any bitcoin business shares. If bitcoin succeeds their BTC share price will almost certainly dive due to deflation. It might be soaring according to the USD yardstick, but you would have been better off just holding BTC. If bitcoin fails the shares will probably be worthless. Actually this isn't quite right; the bitcoin shares would be worth buying if their dividend rate makes up for the appreciation of the BTC, which probably means extraordinarily large.

[dooglus]

The 'pending liabilities' line is showing 0 BTC until I can gain access to the site again.  I hear that the domain has been renewed now, but I can't yet see the site.

Total of 196 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-19 06:46pm (up to block 232179)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   130194 |       3 (0.00002) |  128171 |    2020 |    1623.18 |    3842.59 |   150.87 |  -2219.41 | 236.732
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    11370 |       0 (0.00000) |   10809 |     561 |     158.40 |       0.38 |    22.57 |    158.02 |   0.241
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    11525 |       2 (0.00018) |   11036 |     487 |     166.94 |     320.16 |    14.97 |   -153.22 | 191.784
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    23302 |       5 (0.00022) |   22788 |     509 |     558.54 |     433.64 |    10.14 |    124.89 |  77.639
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23602 |       4 (0.00017) |   23122 |     476 |     848.26 |     566.49 |    22.16 |    281.76 |  66.783
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    28720 |      13 (0.00046) |   28283 |     424 |    1607.61 |    1830.66 |     1.48 |   -223.04 | 113.874
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29599 |      35 (0.00120) |   29052 |     512 |    2130.00 |    1740.11 |   116.95 |    389.88 |  81.695
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21559 |      39 (0.00185) |   21030 |     490 |    2401.96 |    1568.00 |    48.47 |    833.96 |  65.280
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26811 |     116 (0.00439) |   26280 |     415 |    6043.60 |    8661.85 |    13.28 |  -2618.25 | 143.323
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38843 |     309 (0.00811) |   37780 |     754 |    8422.84 |    6945.34 |    10.21 |   1477.50 |  82.458
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   140054 |    2136 (0.01532) |  137313 |     605 |   42621.43 |   36925.58 |     2.41 |   5695.85 |  86.636
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26249 |     597 (0.02308) |   25269 |     383 |    7985.52 |    8578.40 |    15.16 |   -592.88 | 107.424
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    90030 |    2746 (0.03064) |   86870 |     414 |   43352.30 |   38588.12 |     9.42 |   4764.18 |  89.011
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    31033 |    1418 (0.04642) |   29129 |     486 |    9850.62 |   10656.83 |    25.40 |   -806.21 | 108.184
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    37757 |    2320 (0.06212) |   35025 |     412 |    7804.29 |    7594.47 |    31.42 |    209.82 |  97.311
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52830 |    4807 (0.09190) |   47500 |     523 |   16993.76 |   18531.24 |     7.56 |  -1537.48 | 109.047
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   203994 |   24951 (0.12267) |  178456 |     587 |  100409.49 |   99724.37 |   100.76 |    685.11 |  99.318
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   116436 |   21273 (0.18369) |   94539 |     624 |  179182.73 |  180778.09 |  3315.17 |  -1595.36 | 100.890
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   284403 |   69214 (0.24396) |  214492 |     697 |  377975.39 |  363843.64 |  2322.89 |  14131.75 |  96.261
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   277122 |  101595 (0.36749) |  174860 |     667 |  593706.87 |  584996.43 |  1013.56 |   8710.44 |  98.533
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1200638 |  585098 (0.48808) |  613670 |    1870 |  911688.27 |  893508.87 |  2925.78 |  18179.40 |  98.006
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   682197 |  340096 (0.49964) |  340589 |    1512 |  689328.09 |  672215.84 |  6522.71 |  17112.24 |  97.518
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   393106 |  288344 (0.73508) |  103918 |     844 |  310110.16 |  302653.90 |  6172.69 |   7456.26 |  97.596
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    89377 |   70468 (0.79421) |   18259 |     650 |   65201.17 |   63662.64 |  1188.00 |   1538.53 |  97.640
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    80923 |   68729 (0.85691) |   11477 |     717 |   82528.67 |   81756.53 |   401.05 |    772.14 |  99.064
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   129955 |  118322 (0.91618) |   10825 |     808 |   76379.31 |   75260.41 |     1.60 |   1118.89 |  98.535
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21749 |   19726 (0.97896) |     424 |    1599 |   24983.53 |   24564.60 |   240.95 |    418.93 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4081046 | 1667299           | 2393995 |   19752 |  831910.47 |  817629.02 |   301.55 |  14281.45 |  98.283
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   122332 |   55067           |   66971 |     294 | 2732152.60 | 2672120.27 | 24406.21 |  60032.32 |  97.803
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4203378 | 1722366           | 2460966 |   20046 | 3564063.07 | 3489749.29 | 24707.77 |  74313.78 |  97.915
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      74313.78015794 BTC (2.085%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3425.97257500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70887.80758294 BTC (1.989%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70887.80758294 BTC (1.989%)
Profit This Month:           3044.88101532 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13553133  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7701306  (56.8%)
Blockchain MB:   5908.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3178.0  (53.8%)

[RationalSpeculator]

In the above example, the pool water is all the wealth in the Bitcoin system and the sponge is SD. The lake is the wealth in the USD economy. If Bitcoin and USD switch places, SD does not change - only its share of the overall economy does. So unless SD grows to maintain its proportion to the total amount of wealth in the system, the share price will decline relative to the metric - in our case, BTC.

Ask yourself whether a gambling site can comprise 10% of the Bitcoin economy for years when there are so many businesses jumping into the system.

A corollary of this is you shouldn't buy any bitcoin business shares. If bitcoin succeeds their BTC share price will almost certainly dive due to deflation. It might be soaring according to the USD yardstick, but you would have been better off just holding BTC. If bitcoin fails the shares will probably be worthless. Actually this isn't quite right; the bitcoin shares would be worth buying if their dividend rate makes up for the appreciation of the BTC, which probably means extraordinarily large.

You are right. I thought sdice would be a good protection against collapsing btc value, but that was not the case as the sdice shares did not go up when btc dropped drasticly. So when btc goes to the moon, you are screwed with sdice (or any company) as it just doesn't go up and instead tanks in btc value. And when btc collapses, the sdice valuation also does not go up to compensate so your losing too. The only time sdice has outperformed btc was when btc prices were trending trending sideways or slowly up, as was the case from the last half year of 2012. Let's hope we get that again as I'd like to see sdice regain some of it's btc value.

[Fizzgig]

Part of the problem is the spectre of 87 million shares out there ready to be sold at any time. Back when there was a healthy buy/sell market, 3 million shares were sold by SD (not offered, sold onto the market). So who's to know when all selling opportunity evaporates since it is unknown publicly how SD will act. This is akin to the blockchain randomly awarding 100k bitcoins to the winner of a block, it screws with markets when all information isn't given beforehand, and it would make sense to just keep tiering up, ipo at .0032, .0034, .0037, price rose to like .006, so why not put up:

1 million at .01
1 million at .011
...
1 million at .02

Now SD would have a plan to sell their next 10 million shares onto the market at a natural rate as long as they prove themselves, and they have always seemed pretty confident about what they are doing. It may have taken years but at least they didn't dry up the market. As it turned out, investors are stuck with their shares now, hoping their dividends are worth it.