Bryan Micon's List of BTC Ponzi Schemes that should not be listed as "Lending"

[Shadow383]

I didn't realise this topic was about poker...

Its a topic about a guy claiming a bunch of other people are scammers.  Its only fair to discuss the person doing the finger pointing.

Wouldn't it just be easier for people to show they're not scammers?

Against what proof?
As it stands there is nothing to defend against but baseless claims that don't need any defending against, perhaps I missed some proof amongst the 'ponzi ponzi ponzi' chants, because I've seen none backing up your accusations, so then, with such a lack of proof (And indeed, victims) i think "people" have shown they are not scammers.

What about the claim of "there is no evidence that your business has the required income to pay its incredible interest bill without eroding principle balances"?

Surely it's fairly easy in a currency in which all transactions are on public record in the blockchain to show that you're doing a substantial amount of business?

I mean, given the weekly interest bill, you'd expect BTCST to be doing at least 150k BTC per week in trades even if they were dealing in something with a very high profit margin. It shouldn't be difficult to show.

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[imsaguy]

What about the claim of "there is no evidence that your business has the required income to pay its incredible interest bill without eroding principle balances"?

Surely it's fairly easy in a currency in which all transactions are on public record in the blockchain to show that you're doing a substantial amount of business?

I mean, given the weekly interest bill, you'd expect BTCST to be doing at least 150k BTC per week in trades even if they were dealing in something with a very high profit margin. It shouldn't be difficult to show.

Unless of course they are futures contracts and don't actually require the  coins to move.  How about you ask mtgox to show all of their btc transfers in the block chain... oh wait, you can't because some of it is internal/on paper.

[drakahn]

I didn't realise this topic was about poker...

Its a topic about a guy claiming a bunch of other people are scammers.  Its only fair to discuss the person doing the finger pointing.

Wouldn't it just be easier for people to show they're not scammers?

Against what proof?
As it stands there is nothing to defend against but baseless claims that don't need any defending against, perhaps I missed some proof amongst the 'ponzi ponzi ponzi' chants, because I've seen none backing up your accusations, so then, with such a lack of proof (And indeed, victims) i think "people" have shown they are not scammers.

What about the claim of "there is no evidence that your business has the required income to pay its incredible interest bill without eroding principle balances"?

Surely it's fairly easy in a currency in which all transactions are on public record in the blockchain to show that you're doing a substantial amount of business?

I mean, given the weekly interest bill, you'd expect BTCST to be doing at least 150k BTC per week in trades even if they were dealing in something with a very high profit margin. It shouldn't be difficult to show.

A lack of evidence is evidence of nothing, so, you have nothing but baseless claims, again please come up with something that isn't 1) "You don't know therefore ponzi" or 2) "7% therefore ponzi", there were some people a while ago trying to prove that pirate never moved any of the coins, I'm guessing they failed at that... Surely with all of your investigations and 36 pages of discussion you have SOMETHING right?

[imsaguy]

A lack of evidence is evidence of nothing, so, you have nothing but baseless claims, again please come up with something that isn't 1) "You don't know therefore ponzi" or 2) "7% therefore ponzi", there were some people a while ago trying to prove that pirate never moved any of the coins, I'm guessing they failed at that... Surely with all of your investigations and 36 pages of discussion you have SOMETHING right?

"ponzi ponzi ponzi"

[Maged]

What about the claim of "there is no evidence that your business has the required income to pay its incredible interest bill without eroding principle balances"?

Surely it's fairly easy in a currency in which all transactions are on public record in the blockchain to show that you're doing a substantial amount of business?

I mean, given the weekly interest bill, you'd expect BTCST to be doing at least 150k BTC per week in trades even if they were dealing in something with a very high profit margin. It shouldn't be difficult to show.

Unless of course they are futures contracts and don't actually require the  coins to move.  How about you ask mtgox to show all of their btc transfers in the block chain... oh wait, you can't because some of it is internal/on paper.

For those of us who aren't experts in the futures trading market, could you please explain how your theory might work? I am willing to be open-minded about this, so I'm all ears.

Also, we can easily check the BTC side of MtGox without them even assisting us, so the comparison isn't even close to valid. Because the BTC used by Pirate can move back and forth between USD and BTC, we cannot check those numbers without his assistance.

Wouldn't it just be easier for people to show they're not scammers?

Against what proof?
As it stands there is nothing to defend against but baseless claims that don't need any defending against, perhaps I missed some proof amongst the 'ponzi ponzi ponzi' chants, because I've seen none backing up your accusations, so then, with such a lack of proof (And indeed, victims) i think "people" have shown they are not scammers.

What about the claim of "there is no evidence that your business has the required income to pay its incredible interest bill without eroding principle balances"?

Surely it's fairly easy in a currency in which all transactions are on public record in the blockchain to show that you're doing a substantial amount of business?

I mean, given the weekly interest bill, you'd expect BTCST to be doing at least 150k BTC per week in trades even if they were dealing in something with a very high profit margin. It shouldn't be difficult to show.

A lack of evidence is evidence of nothing, so, you have nothing but baseless claims, again please come up with something that isn't 1) "You don't know therefore ponzi" or 2) "7% therefore ponzi", there were some people a while ago trying to prove that pirate never moved any of the coins, I'm guessing they failed at that... Surely with all of your investigations and 36 pages of discussion you have SOMETHING right?

On the contrary, when it comes to Ponzis, a lack of evidence of anything is evidence of a Ponzi. It's also extremely easy to disprove if it's not a ponzi. As it is, there is no evidence that a business side of BS&T even exists. If I'm wrong about this, let me know.

[koin]

In 36 pages they found one interesting thing

they promised investors extraordinary returns on short term, high interest loans to desperate companies.

Instead, prosecutors say, they paid off their own debts.

http://www.wzzm13.com/rss/article/221379/14/Man-sentenced-for-stealing-800000-in-ponzi-scheme

the best part ...  they named it the "atlas fund".

six years in prison.  full restitution plus interest.

this was for a ponzi of less than $1 million

sure hope that anyone involved whatsoever in promoting or operating something that ultimately ends up being a ponzi are thinking through the consequences.

or not.  anonymous forum accounts and privacy-enabled domain registrations are easy to abandon.  

with a digital currency that not only can be used anonymously but is non-reversible as well, looks like you have no risks.

carry on.

[imsaguy]

For those of us who aren't experts in the futures trading market, could you please explain how your theory might work? I am willing to be open-minded about this, so I'm all ears.

Also, we can easily check the BTC side of MtGox without them even assisting us, so the comparison isn't even close to valid. Because the BTC used by Pirate can move back and forth between USD and BTC, we cannot check those numbers without his assistance.

With Gox, I simply was trying to illustrate that coins can change hands without every actually being published in a public record.  To assert that the blockchain is the end all, be all, to prove a transaction.. well, its just wrong.

Now on to futures:

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_contract, "In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract between two parties to buy or sell a specified asset of standardized quantity and quality for a price agreed today (the futures price or strike price) with delivery and payment occurring at a specified future date, the delivery date."

Are you familiar with shorting a stock or buying a stock on margin?

[dust]

Futures are a zero sum game.  Who is losing massive amounts of BTC to pirate?

[dust]

Futures are a zero sum game.  Who is losing massive amounts of BTC to pirate?

No one.  The loss/gain is happening on the USD / BTC interface.  BTC is gaining relative to USD (and all the other ponzi currencies).  Those long BTC win (almost everyone here), those long USD (anyone here, no, most of the rest of the world, yes) lose.

In fact if you assume for the sake of an example that BS&T has 500,000 BTC then the holding cost is 5,000 BTC per day.  This means that, assuming it is legit, BS&T has to purchase an average of 5,000 BTC more per day than it sells.  This pushes up the price for everyone here - whether you invest with BS&T or not.

I asked who was losing in the zero sum game of futures contracts and you reply "No one"

In your example (a general case, not necessarily futures related) you then mention pirate buying 5000 BTC more than he sells (and losing 0 USD on average).  What group of people is selling 5000 BTC per day making 0 USD on average?

Also, increases in BTC value probably hurt pirate, as when he trades between BTC and USD, he will at some times hold some USD, but he has to pay interest in 100% BTC. Pirate himself has claimed that sharp increases in the BTC/USD price could hurt his business.

[imsaguy]

Also, increases in BTC value probably hurt pirate, as when he trades between BTC and USD, he will at some times hold some USD, but he has to pay interest in 100% BTC. Pirate himself has claimed that sharp increases in the BTC/USD price could hurt his business.

Are you sick?  you're actually acknowledging something pirate said makes sense? You better go see the doctor or else Micon might label you a participant in the ponzi.

[finkleshnorts]

I really hate to bump a post, but I was hoping that someone who knows more about what pirate is doing knows something I don't. I raised some questions in the post linked, and it kind of got drowned out.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=94900.msg1092056#msg1092056

[Maged]

For those of us who aren't experts in the futures trading market, could you please explain how your theory might work? I am willing to be open-minded about this, so I'm all ears.

Also, we can easily check the BTC side of MtGox without them even assisting us, so the comparison isn't even close to valid. Because the BTC used by Pirate can move back and forth between USD and BTC, we cannot check those numbers without his assistance.

With Gox, I simply was trying to illustrate that coins can change hands without every actually being published in a public record.  To assert that the blockchain is the end all, be all, to prove a transaction.. well, its just wrong.

Yes, I believe that everyone on the audit team can agree with you there.

Now on to futures:

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_contract, "In finance, a futures contract is a standardized contract between two parties to buy or sell a specified asset of standardized quantity and quality for a price agreed today (the futures price or strike price) with delivery and payment occurring at a specified future date, the delivery date."

Are you familiar with shorting a stock or buying a stock on margin?

Please, assume basic Wiki knowledge. Of course I'm familiar with shorting a stock and buying on margin.

I'm most curious about the following:
1) What about futures would have such a continuous need, regardless of whether the price is going up or down?
2) Why would such an exchange not be public?
3) Why is the need for bitcoins to be held continuously growing, especially with the price going up? Shouldn't it only go up as the price goes down?
4) Why wouldn't Pirate just request a loan for the bitcoins on-demand instead of holding them at a constant interest rate?

[molecular]

Micon, why is bitdaytrade on the list. I couldn't care less, but having legit stuff on there kindof invalidates the whole list. At least give reasons.

[hgmichna]

It's pretty hilarious watching the Pirate-folk having their little meltdown and pulling out random poker statistics that have nothing to do with anything.

It will be especially funny seeing which ones will disappear after Pirate defaults. Greed is one helluva drug!

It is an old tactic you can observe here all the time. They are trying to water down or derail the thread, trying to prevent analysis of the Ponzi scheme.

It does not have any effect on intelligent readers.

[hgmichna]

"7% therefore ponzi"

Make that: 3,300%, therefore Ponzi.

Those 7% per week are one of the pillars of this Ponzi scheme. It would not have taken off if the pirate had announced his interest payouts as 3,300%, because that would have raised some doubt even among the math-challenged, who are feeding this Ponzi scheme.

All the schemes who announce their interest rate in weekly or monthly figures are scams. Every serious business announces annual rates.

Let me say it again, because apparently it needs to be said from time to time:

Somebody who gives his money to an anonymous entity that promises 3,300% interest, but does not reveal any details about its business, is so utterly stupid that it boggles the mind. Conversely, the scammer is a criminal who belongs behind bars.

And, for good measure, those who gain from the scam are gaining stolen wealth. Depending on how deeply they are involved, they may belong behind bars as well. "I did not know what the pirate was doing," does not count as an excuse. I am saying it here. If you read it, you know.

[memvola]

And, for good measure, those who gain from the scam are gaining stolen wealth. Depending on how deeply they are involved, they may belong behind bars as well. "I did not know what the pirate was doing," does not count as an excuse. I am saying it here. If you read it, you know.

Not sure if that is true morally, or legally. How do you come up with these things?

[drakahn]

Wouldn't it just be easier for people to show they're not scammers?

Against what proof?
As it stands there is nothing to defend against but baseless claims that don't need any defending against, perhaps I missed some proof amongst the 'ponzi ponzi ponzi' chants, because I've seen none backing up your accusations, so then, with such a lack of proof (And indeed, victims) i think "people" have shown they are not scammers.

What about the claim of "there is no evidence that your business has the required income to pay its incredible interest bill without eroding principle balances"?

Surely it's fairly easy in a currency in which all transactions are on public record in the blockchain to show that you're doing a substantial amount of business?

I mean, given the weekly interest bill, you'd expect BTCST to be doing at least 150k BTC per week in trades even if they were dealing in something with a very high profit margin. It shouldn't be difficult to show.

A lack of evidence is evidence of nothing, so, you have nothing but baseless claims, again please come up with something that isn't 1) "You don't know therefore ponzi" or 2) "7% therefore ponzi", there were some people a while ago trying to prove that pirate never moved any of the coins, I'm guessing they failed at that... Surely with all of your investigations and 36 pages of discussion you have SOMETHING right?

On the contrary, when it comes to Ponzis, a lack of evidence of anything is evidence of a Ponzi. It's also extremely easy to disprove if it's not a ponzi. As it is, there is no evidence that a business side of BS&T even exists. If I'm wrong about this, let me know.

So, anything you don't agree with we can ignore burden of proof and just go to lynching and make them submit?
Does that work both ways, can you prove you aren't a Russian spy? Obviously you must be as I see no evidence supporting anything else, and anything you say is exactly what a Russian spy would say (pre-emptive closing my eyes and ears and screaming lalalalalalala like you guys, you teach well).

[aq]

On the contrary, when it comes to Ponzis, a lack of evidence of anything is evidence of a Ponzi. It's also extremely easy to disprove if it's not a ponzi. As it is, there is no evidence that a business side of BS&T even exists. If I'm wrong about this, let me know.

Well, there are quite a few respected members of this very forum, that know exactly about the BS&T business. You being a Moderator, did you even think about asking them privately before making your ponzi accusations?

[JoelKatz]

Well, there are quite a few respected members of this very forum, that know exactly about the BS&T business. You being a Moderator, did you even think about asking them privately before making your ponzi accusations?

I have done so, and have not been impressed at all with the responses that I've gotten. They mostly consist of the same type of implausible explanations made in public. If anyone reading this wishes to claim such special knowledge, you are welcome to send me a private message.

To date, nobody has been able to explain what these things are doing in a way that meets three criteria:

1) It doesn't require some people who invest to prosper at the expense of others who invest in the same enterprise.

2) It doesn't rely on something phenomenally implausible to be the case.

3) It doesn't have at its root some significant misunderstanding of how things work.

It's the same nonsense: arbitrage (fails 2), mining (fails 2 and 3), market manipulation (fails 3), unlimited supply of people willing to pay *way* too much for BTC (fails 2 and 3), perpetual growth (fails 1 and 3), multiple independent ventures that cancel out each other's weaknesses (fails 2 and 3).

[mp420]

One thing I've been thinking of. I am sure Pirate is running a ponzi scheme since every other alternative is exceedingly far-fetched. But I've been wondering about what is his profit goal. Is he keeping his internal books in USD or BTC? If in USD, he won't want to default even if his scheme grows too slow to pay all his (outgoing) interests, as long as the rising price of BTC against USD compensates for that. And has he already sold enough BTC and planned an exit strategy so that he can keep the scheme going until he's out of BTC? You see, he might think he's already rich enough and he might have a way to disappear so that no one can come after him. So, why not just wait and see how long it takes for the ponzi to collapse on its own?