We have virtually no risk.
The market doesn't slip every 5 seconds. And during most of the violent moves previously, we received no or only a few orders. The high volume was always generated after the violent moves.
Now thankfully, Zhoutong, you seem to have the risks of slippage covered as explained above this quote, but your reasoning in this quote is flawed. Never _ever_ think something is not going to happen because it hasn't happened before. Always expect the worst and then some. This applies to anything, not just slippage risks. If you haven't made simulations in which there was heavy trading _during_ price movements, you should! Even though I don't have any practical experience to prove this (because it never happened before), I do have theoretical consideration. The main problem of any system with guaranteed liquidity is adverse selection. We are exposed to the systematic risk of customers trading only when they have opportunities to take advantage of price differences. A similar example is exchange quotation. TradeHill gives users 5 seconds to confirm a Instant trade quotation. But since there's no cost to get a quotation, theoretically there's one possibility: a user gets a quote every 5 seconds, and confirm only when there's huge slippage. What I have done here is to delay all order execution by 1-4 seconds. This makes sure that when you click Buy/Sell button exactly during the slippage, the actual execution will happen after the major price move. And this is still considered as "guaranteed liquidity" because we update prices globally, not just for individual pending orders. Zhou: i watch the stock mkt most days minute by minute and am able to witness most major moves. Mushoz is right; just b/c you haven't seen it happen before with Bitcoin doesn't mean it won't ever happen. its impossible to write the perfect algorithm. for example, i predict that as the market becomes larger and bigger players enter the scene with larger and more powerful bots or servers, they will intentionally examine your protocols and try to exploit it with surprise attacks. what would a 10 minute straight up move in the price do to your algorithm and your customers holding short? i have seen straight up moves (with a few red candles thrown in btwn) for hours on end clearly designed to destroy shorts as well as the vice versa. btw, remember 10 days ago when we broke out of the 3.20 range up to 3.70 and then started to drift back down to 3.50 as the sellers and shorts stepped back in? it was me who jammed the price to 3.99 knowing that it would cause all the other bots and shorts to climb on board and take it up and through 4.00 due to the intensity of the move and the "double ramp". i believe we topped just over 4.50 on gox with your algorithm spiking to 4.95 or something ridiculous wiping out "a lot, seriously" of leveraged traders (using your own words from the Zhoutonged thread). i understand that you had to reverse alot of these trades. now this wasn't a target against you or your shorts but it was a consideration given that i saw we were breaking out yet again and i was in the process of accumulating. and i'm just a guy with a laptop and some intuition. so in a sense, i do have experience trading on Bitcoinica via watching the effects of what i do on your algorithm. the lesson for you is, you will always be vulnerable to unpredictable situations. edit: no offense but you often come across as being so smart as to be able to write the perfect algorithm. perhaps its b/c of your young age which i admire more than anything. but think about it from an open source perspective. you are one guy trying to outsmart the "market" which is essentially the entire world expressing its opinion of the price. within that market are all sorts of smart competitors who will try to compete with you. they will study you and design even better more powerful algorithms. never take anything for granted. Oh wow, YOU caused that second spike. Always wondered who it was.  |
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That's a pretty big cliff to climb, but let's do it anyways  By the way, chodpaba, I know your charts don't rely on market depth, but I think they should take it into account. Bitcoin moves in spikes (usually). If, for example, someone bought 20k BTC right now, it would push the price to 4.6, past your two huge walls. |
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Centralized inspection ensures that the coins are mined at a pace determined in advance. The principle of mining ensures that the currency will never suffer from inflation. The quantity of coins is limited and supervised by a central agency. They certainly did their homework! derp derp derp  edit: At least rich folks heard about it, so if it's not very correct, they'll figure it out sooner or later anyways. |
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Why did tradehill decide not to cooperate with this blacklisting thing? Was it the moral hazard?
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Just a note. If you borrow 1BTC and pay back in one year.... your payment would be 229BTC when compounded daily.
OP did not state whether the 1.5% per day is compounded or not.
It's compounded  |
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this is the most hilarious scammer alert I've ever read
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Why is mtgox still locking down those accounts? The bitcoins were probably sold long ago at Tradehill.
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On the bus...
Kyle: So where do you come from?
Tom Williams: West Indies. I came here cause I saw a mining spike in the charts here. See, I have a Bitcoin business. You hand your money to me, and I send it when you tell me to.
Cartman: That sounds retarded!
Another kid, dressed in a tux, comes over and deposits 5000 bitcoins
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I wouldn't be surprised at a correction down to $3 or even below in the next couple weeks, though I don't think it's likely.
Zhoutong has said that most of his users are long right now, and I presume this is on the order of tens of thousands of coins.
If there were a 30k btc dump down to $3.80, liquidation of 10-to-1 leveraged longs would start, which might drop the price to $3.50 - $3.60 range. There's very little support under $3.50, with only 5k btc between $3.21 and $3.49. If the price does managed to break $3.60 or so, the spread would start liquidating 5-to-1 leveraged longs taken at $4.20, and would certainly drive the price to $3.00-$3.10 given the shallow support below $3.50.
There's another 70k btc in bids between $3 and $2. If $2.50 is breached from panic selling, recently taken 2.5-to-1 long leveraged positions would start being liquidated, and would push the price close to $2. It would be an epic mess.
For whatever it's worth, I'm mostly in USD right now, and have bids in the $2-$3 range to catch the dagger on the offchance it falls. I hope it doesn't, but I really have no idea what's going to happen next.
I should add that if there were a 30k btc buy instead of a 30k btc sell, a short squeeze would drive the price straight to $5. Basically, any big move is amplified due to rampant leveraging combined with irrational exuberance and irrational bearishness (Nagleism?). I think it's worth keeping this fundamental in mind when placing your bet. How would you have a short squeeze when zhoutong's out of money?  |
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Kyle: What's in it for me?
Cartman: I mine and you sell it to the druggies, and I'll give you one percent.
Kyle: One percent!? Hell no!
Stan: How about fifty percent?
Cartman: Look Kyle, I'm doing all the hard work. It took me all night last night to install the thing so shut your Jew mouth!
Fade to black as they argue
Cut to bus stop the next day
Cartman runs up while talking excitedly.
Cartman: Guys, guys! I found another way to get bitcoins! I put 1 bitcoin into a Ponzi scheme yesterday, and I got 2 more out! That's 60 bucks!
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Since I'm out of n00b jail, I'll make my first free man post since my return to this place.
I cannot believe the attitude here.
It's absolutely disturbing.
There's going to be god damn flying 12 monkeys up in the streets in 12 months with food riots and you people are bitching about helping out someone whose work benefits everybody?
Don't give me that investor bullshit. Lead a path to his door? Where do you see these magic droves of customers coming from? If you haven't been paying attention 9/11, the bank failouts, the Breivik shit, and the prospect of either a war banger or a nasty war banger as president, these tragedies of the past, present, and future have sucked the optimism out of most people. We are all mostly burnt out and could use a little spontaneous vitality.
Holy fucking shit.
Just for that I'm donating the .00017760 someone sent me once to DiabloD3. Sorry man, I hardly have any, but I thought I'd pay you the same compliment someone once paid me under my previous account (I no longer have access to that email) a long time ago.
Also, for anyone here still fantasizing about the economy and telling people to get jobs: Are you hiring? If not stop projecting your forced optimism from your own insecurity on someone else.
Also, cocks.
Welcome to the internet, enjoy your stay. |
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Error message? What error?
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Oh oops.
Well, it would be fun to start a script... just for kicks.
edit: idea! Make Cartman MysteryMiner (go look him up, he's the only nazi on this forum)
I feel we need a good Atlas, no matter how we cut the mustard. We definitely need a good Atlas, but Cartman is not a great Atlas... he's not political enough Hmmm... Token! xD |
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Cartman: Silk Road is this place where people buy drugs with bitcoins. If we sell the bitcoins that we get from running the program to the local druggies, we can get cash instantly for bitcoins without using an exchange! Stan: I knew it would be illegal. Kyle: rolls eyes. Wow, fatass, you've thought this through. Cartman: Shut up, Jew. Changes slideSlide:
PLAN:
1. Mine BitCoins
2. Sell BitCoins to druggies
3. 
4. Profit
<chart showing expected profit on a scale of "million, billion, gazillion">
So there's the plan. As you can see here, we'll make a million bucks by 2012, a billion by 2013 and a gazillion by 2014. Any questions?
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start shopping for someone who can provide better service.
That someone is bitcoin No credit card company will stop charging for chargebacks any time soon. |
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Your wallet's fine. Instead of moving the entire folder, let an empty wallet sit there and download the blockchain first, THEN move only the wallet in. For some reason, Bitcoin didn't release the lock on the appdata folder.
edit: Also, when dealing with a large amount of coins like that, don't trust the backup. The easy solution is to use a Ubuntu liveCD, mount the XP drive and move the files out to a USB.
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Generous of you to offer 300%+ APR loans for those with good credit.
xD Such is the state of bitcoin lending |
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O.o That's a strange approach. |
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I am offering short-term (1 day to 5 days) loans of 30-50 BTC to trustworthy members at 1.5% interest per day. These loans are always available if the thread is marked "OPEN." You can submit a request via PM or posting in this thread, and I will check it 3 times a day. Measures of trustworthinessThe following guarantee you a loan within 12 hours (I will not refuse a loan if you satisfy these conditions unless a significant complaint with evidence against you is posted in this forum) > If you run (or ran) a reasonably popular website that people trust > If you have done >=3 large deals on this forum (video cards, deals of >30 BTC) > If you have an OTC rating of >20 with no negative ratings and have dealt on this forum before > If someone I've dealt with in the past recommends you > If I've dealt successfully with you in the past > If you have asked for loans on this forum before and have repaid timely or generously every time (the latter applies to zer0! ) for at least 5 times > If you are part of the board administration > If you are an active developer working on Bitcoin and have >50 posts in the Development subforum It helps if > You are a long-time member, although that won't get you all the way > You are a Hero Member |
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