Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[sickpig]

sorry guys but I can't find anywhere such a bold estimate for the next jump, every place I look I found something between 1.7 and 1.8 bln (~ 24%), where did you find 40% prediction for the next adjustment? (of course also 24% is a hell of a lot but better than 40)

i dont expect 40%, i expect 28%

nevertheless, where would the actual diff be with bitmine, cointerra and hashfast on track? something like +75%?

Yeah 28 is more likely.

Anyway I'm not good at make diff predictions. When I was deciding if buying or not from KNC I've estimated a diff of 55 mil by mid September, what I naive I was. Luckily enough my btc value estimate was wrong either, by a ten fold, but in the right direction and of course KnC hashrate over-delivering come handy

Speaking of hypoetical hashrate if CT/HF/Bitmine had released on time... dunno, mind blowing for sure.  

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[Cablez]

The part that bugs me is that no one is discussing '21e6' around here at all.  The first I heard of it was on Bloomberg news!? That is just strange.  They have massive capital backers.  KNC does have competition I think but it just might not be in their faces.

Makes me wonder about my Neptune's profitability come April.  My rule of 2 is looking bleak.

[OmegaNemesis28]

knc never announced when they taped out in mid 2013, so no one actually knows if it took 2 or 3 months.

You're correct they never specifically said when they taped out, but they certainly taped out in June/July. They couldn't have possible taped out earlier unless they started selling units after tape-out which Im not sure I can believe.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg2832504#msg2832504

You seem a bit bitter using terms like "delusion". Did KNC do something to you exactly? I'm pissed myself how they really didn't honor pre-existing customers with the whole Neptune preorder thing, but KNC has delivered before so I'm not sure why you don't think they won't deliver again just because they won't announce these things. They completely over-delivered with the first line of products. So even if they are late, I'd expect bonuses.

[ImI]

The part that bugs me is that no one is discussing '21e6' around here at all.  The first I heard of it was on Bloomberg news!? That is just strange.  They have massive capital backers.  KNC does have competition I think but it just might not be in their faces.

Makes me wonder about my Neptune's profitability come April.  My rule of 2 is looking bleak.

IF those neptunes are delivered in april. ASIC history shows that May/June may be more likely imo.

[nightengale]

Starting to get a little nervous as a Batch 1 Neptune buyer. Can't imagine how the later batch must feel. Wish KnC would release some development news.

[OmegaNemesis28]

The part that bugs me is that no one is discussing '21e6' around here at all.  The first I heard of it was on Bloomberg news!? That is just strange.  They have massive capital backers.  KNC does have competition I think but it just might not be in their faces.

Makes me wonder about my Neptune's profitability come April.  My rule of 2 is looking bleak.

You're the first I've heard about it from too. *starts looking*

[r1senfa17h]

http://www.engadget.com/2014/01/10/KnCMiner-interview/

Awesome, thanks for sharing that! That's our very own 'Orama getting interviewed for those of you new to the scene. Skip to ~8:30 for the relevant part:

"We're still waiting for competition..." -in regards to shipping more Jupiters.

I just finished watching the rest and it's got some juicy tidbits of information. Sounds like another Jupiter sale is all but certain at the end of the month or the beginning of February. 'Orama also mentions that the design probably won't be like the Jupiter and they're looking into multiple types of cooling - including immersion cooling!

-Oh, and 75% of all btc mined right now are mined with KnC hardware. That seems like a stretch with all of the recent hashrate increases, but it can't be too hard for KnC to estimate exactly how much hashing power they've shipped compared to the world's hashing power.

[wasubii]

Starting to get a little nervous as a Batch 1 Neptune buyer. Can't imagine how the later batch must feel. Wish KnC would release some development news.

Me too. Glad i can get a full refund up until they start shipping though. And BTC price is lower now than when i paid.

[DPoS]

Starting to get a little nervous as a Batch 1 Neptune buyer. Can't imagine how the later batch must feel. Wish KnC would release some development news.

Me too. Glad i can get a full refund up until they start shipping though. And BTC price is lower now than when i paid.

why dont you rub that in HF's thread?   

[ASIC-K]

I can understand batch 1 13k people getting nervous but batch 1 "pre-release" whatever you want to call it, should be fine.

[RoadStress]

Hey Bitcoinorama at the date of this announcement https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-73 (14 December) difficulty was 908,350,862 and the next difficulty will be ~1,732,106,449 so almost double. Even if not a commercial company hasn't shipped to public it is obvious that someone is shipping or at least building private farms (40% of ghash.io is private farm of bitfury and may be rising and also there are rumors of private farms in China with the Avalon chips). Isn't the doubling of the difficulty in one month a good reason to start selling some Jupiters to old Jupiter customers?

[Easy2Mine]

knc never announced when they taped out in mid 2013, so no one actually knows if it took 2 or 3 months.

You're correct they never specifically said when they taped out, but they certainly taped out in June/July. They couldn't have possible taped out earlier unless they started selling units after tape-out which Im not sure I can believe.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg2832504#msg2832504

You seem a bit bitter using terms like "delusion". Did KNC do something to you exactly? I'm pissed myself how they really didn't honor pre-existing customers with the whole Neptune preorder thing, but KNC has delivered before so I'm not sure why you don't think they won't deliver again just because they won't announce these things. They completely over-delivered with the first line of products. So even if they are late, I'd expect bonuses.

He is bitter because he can't afford KnC gear, although he claimed to have KnC gear and yet he is dissapointed in it and said it will not ROI.
Why all of the other KnC customers can ROI and he is the only one that can't.
Something fishy about this, I bet he is still mining with GPU and don't want people to add hashrate to the network.
Well in that case I have to dissapoint you, I will add a shitload off hashrate to the network.
If I don't do that another will.

[The Avenger]

The part that bugs me is that no one is discussing '21e6' around here at all.  The first I heard of it was on Bloomberg news!? That is just strange.  They have massive capital backers.  KNC does have competition I think but it just might not be in their faces.

Makes me wonder about my Neptune's profitability come April.  My rule of 2 is looking bleak.

I was going to post this earlier, but decided against it as I'm, as usual, getting shit for pointing out facts. But anyway, "dark horses" and "neptune lovers":


After next difficulty change in 2 days, a neptune's 3TH will mine 1BTC/day.

And that is how much you will mine now, in January 2014, BEFORE CT/HF/Bitmine and any other dark horses release their full force.

Will they all have shipped before the end of Q1?

Work it out for yourselves neptune lovers...

[The Avenger]

He is bitter because he can't afford KnC gear, although he claimed to have KnC gear and yet he is dissapointed in it and said it will not ROI.
Why all of the other KnC customers can ROI and he is the only one that can't.

If people calculate ROI as it should be - how much btc could I have bought for the price I paid for the mining gear. For me, 80BTC. Will I ever get that from my knc gear? No. So zero profits, not even making back what I paid.

And I'm certain any one of the 2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI, in those terms.

But yeah, I'm the only one who won't ROI. Whatever asshole. You are totally delusional and we'll see how clever you are when your neptune arrives in Q2/Q3

[r1senfa17h]

He is bitter because he can't afford KnC gear, although he claimed to have KnC gear and yet he is dissapointed in it and said it will not ROI.
Why all of the other KnC customers can ROI and he is the only one that can't.

If people calculate ROI as it should be - how much btc could I have bought for the price I paid for the mining gear. For me, 80BTC. Will I ever get that from my knc gear? No. So zero profits, not even making back what I paid.

And I'm certain any one of the 2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI, in those terms.

But yeah, I'm the only one who won't ROI. Whatever asshole. You are totally delusional and we'll see how clever you are when your neptune arrives in Q2/Q3

I received my Jupiter on Oct 7th and also bought 2 upgrade modules when they went on sale. My total cost was ~66 BTC. I've mined ~59 BTC to date with 99.9% uptime and overclocking. I agree that many will not see ROI in btc. I expect to mine another 15-20 btc with my rig (currently running at 1TH/s) before the electricity becomes too expensive, which will mean I will ROI - eventually.

[DPoS]

If people calculate ROI as it should be -

that logic is as dead as GPU mining btc

you know all the tricky accounting shady money fueling this miner surge not some dude wondering to spend his 30 btc and get 31btc back

[The Avenger]

If people calculate ROI as it should be -

that logic is as dead as GPU mining btc

you know all the tricky accounting shady money fueling this miner surge not some dude wondering to spend his 30 btc and get 31btc back

All I can say is when I bought, I worked out how much BTC I could have bought at the same time. And my marker of success would be to mine back the same amount of BTC.

Conversion to dollar equivalent was never part of my equation, because that fluctuates wildly. If I got back 80BTC, even if BTC was only worth $10, I would consider that a success because I believe in BTC long-term.

If you count in the dollar equivalent, one week you made roi and the week after you haven 't made roi! That makes no sense for a piece of hardware that's usefulness depreciates exponentially. There has got to be a point where you say "Yes, I made back what I paid" and that only happens if you think in terms of mined BTC (not dollar equivalent).

The logic of that thinking is not dead. It's just the cost of hardware and the rush of new entrants who have no idea what they are doing make it impossible to get back what you paid. Plenty guys on here wouldn't touch a neptune with someone else #@$% because they know it's a bad investment. But so many people have been deluded or simply can't do the maths who stump up 13K and keep the hardware prices higher than they should be, way above what an informed market would pay.

It's people making videos for engadget and saying that people who spent 7K made 70K that are a major part of fueling this goldrush and deluding noobs. I hate that shit and it makes me angry.

I received my Jupiter on Oct 7th and also bought 2 upgrade modules when they went on sale. My total cost was ~66 BTC. I've mined ~59 BTC to date with 99.9% uptime and overclocking. I agree that many will not see ROI in btc. I expect to mine another 15-20 btc with my rig (currently running at 1TH/s) before the electricity becomes too expensive, which will mean I will ROI - eventually.

Thanks for the figures. I had no idea people who took delivery as early as Oct 7th still hadn't made 70BTC yet.

Which makes me wonder exactly how many people ACTUALLY made 70BTC (i.e. 70K), as our engadget interviewee above claims?

As knc said on the 11th October that they had only produced 700 units (https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-49), so that means the amount who mined 70BTC (70K) must be only a few hundred at most. Out of 7000-9000 October units shipped, that's not too impressive.

<awaits backlash for presenting facts people don't want to hear>

[kendog77]

He is bitter because he can't afford KnC gear, although he claimed to have KnC gear and yet he is dissapointed in it and said it will not ROI.
Why all of the other KnC customers can ROI and he is the only one that can't.

If people calculate ROI as it should be - how much btc could I have bought for the price I paid for the mining gear. For me, 80BTC. Will I ever get that from my knc gear? No. So zero profits, not even making back what I paid.

And I'm certain any one of the 2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI, in those terms.

But yeah, I'm the only one who won't ROI. Whatever asshole. You are totally delusional and we'll see how clever you are when your neptune arrives in Q2/Q3

It sounds like you're just terrible at timing hardware purchases. I've got three Jupiters that have been hashing away for 6 weeks are have already earned back 80% of the BTC I paid for them. When miners are priced in USD, the price of BTC at the time of purchase is probably the most important factor in determining whether or not a purchase will be profitable.

Also, ordering from a great company like Knc that isn't trying to screw over miners also helps.

[kendog77]

The part that bugs me is that no one is discussing '21e6' around here at all.  The first I heard of it was on Bloomberg news!? That is just strange.  They have massive capital backers.  KNC does have competition I think but it just might not be in their faces.

Makes me wonder about my Neptune's profitability come April.  My rule of 2 is looking bleak.

I was going to post this earlier, but decided against it as I'm, as usual, getting shit for pointing out facts. But anyway, "dark horses" and "neptune lovers":


After next difficulty change in 2 days, a neptune's 3TH will mine 1BTC/day.

And that is how much you will mine now, in January 2014, BEFORE CT/HF/Bitmine and any other dark horses release their full force.

Will they all have shipped before the end of Q1?

Work it out for yourselves neptune lovers...

Keep in ming that the BTC exchange rate was relatively high when Knc started selling Neptunes, so a lot of folks only paid between 10-13 BTC for early Neptune orders.

We're still a LONG way away from those early Neptune orders being unprofitable...

[nightengale]

I can understand batch 1 13k people getting nervous but batch 1 "pre-release" whatever you want to call it, should be fine.

I'm a pre-release customer and I'm still nervous. These dark horse mining manufacturers are getting kinda crazy. If KnC doesn't release any updated information on a timeline and performance specs soon, I'm sadly starting to think about requesting a refund. It's been a month and a half since since Neptune was announced and there have been no technical updates. They really pulled a rabbit out of their hat with Jupiter, but over-delivering on Neptune may not be as possible.