Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com

[ASIC-K]

I can understand batch 1 13k people getting nervous but batch 1 "pre-release" whatever you want to call it, should be fine.

[RoadStress]

Hey Bitcoinorama at the date of this announcement https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-73 (14 December) difficulty was 908,350,862 and the next difficulty will be ~1,732,106,449 so almost double. Even if not a commercial company hasn't shipped to public it is obvious that someone is shipping or at least building private farms (40% of ghash.io is private farm of bitfury and may be rising and also there are rumors of private farms in China with the Avalon chips). Isn't the doubling of the difficulty in one month a good reason to start selling some Jupiters to old Jupiter customers?

[Easy2Mine]

knc never announced when they taped out in mid 2013, so no one actually knows if it took 2 or 3 months.

You're correct they never specifically said when they taped out, but they certainly taped out in June/July. They couldn't have possible taped out earlier unless they started selling units after tape-out which Im not sure I can believe.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=170332.msg2832504#msg2832504

You seem a bit bitter using terms like "delusion". Did KNC do something to you exactly? I'm pissed myself how they really didn't honor pre-existing customers with the whole Neptune preorder thing, but KNC has delivered before so I'm not sure why you don't think they won't deliver again just because they won't announce these things. They completely over-delivered with the first line of products. So even if they are late, I'd expect bonuses.

He is bitter because he can't afford KnC gear, although he claimed to have KnC gear and yet he is dissapointed in it and said it will not ROI.
Why all of the other KnC customers can ROI and he is the only one that can't.
Something fishy about this, I bet he is still mining with GPU and don't want people to add hashrate to the network.
Well in that case I have to dissapoint you, I will add a shitload off hashrate to the network.
If I don't do that another will.

[The Avenger]

The part that bugs me is that no one is discussing '21e6' around here at all.  The first I heard of it was on Bloomberg news!? That is just strange.  They have massive capital backers.  KNC does have competition I think but it just might not be in their faces.

Makes me wonder about my Neptune's profitability come April.  My rule of 2 is looking bleak.

I was going to post this earlier, but decided against it as I'm, as usual, getting shit for pointing out facts. But anyway, "dark horses" and "neptune lovers":


After next difficulty change in 2 days, a neptune's 3TH will mine 1BTC/day.

And that is how much you will mine now, in January 2014, BEFORE CT/HF/Bitmine and any other dark horses release their full force.

Will they all have shipped before the end of Q1?

Work it out for yourselves neptune lovers...

[The Avenger]

He is bitter because he can't afford KnC gear, although he claimed to have KnC gear and yet he is dissapointed in it and said it will not ROI.
Why all of the other KnC customers can ROI and he is the only one that can't.

If people calculate ROI as it should be - how much btc could I have bought for the price I paid for the mining gear. For me, 80BTC. Will I ever get that from my knc gear? No. So zero profits, not even making back what I paid.

And I'm certain any one of the 2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI, in those terms.

But yeah, I'm the only one who won't ROI. Whatever asshole. You are totally delusional and we'll see how clever you are when your neptune arrives in Q2/Q3

[r1senfa17h]

He is bitter because he can't afford KnC gear, although he claimed to have KnC gear and yet he is dissapointed in it and said it will not ROI.
Why all of the other KnC customers can ROI and he is the only one that can't.

If people calculate ROI as it should be - how much btc could I have bought for the price I paid for the mining gear. For me, 80BTC. Will I ever get that from my knc gear? No. So zero profits, not even making back what I paid.

And I'm certain any one of the 2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI, in those terms.

But yeah, I'm the only one who won't ROI. Whatever asshole. You are totally delusional and we'll see how clever you are when your neptune arrives in Q2/Q3

I received my Jupiter on Oct 7th and also bought 2 upgrade modules when they went on sale. My total cost was ~66 BTC. I've mined ~59 BTC to date with 99.9% uptime and overclocking. I agree that many will not see ROI in btc. I expect to mine another 15-20 btc with my rig (currently running at 1TH/s) before the electricity becomes too expensive, which will mean I will ROI - eventually.

[DPoS]

If people calculate ROI as it should be -

that logic is as dead as GPU mining btc

you know all the tricky accounting shady money fueling this miner surge not some dude wondering to spend his 30 btc and get 31btc back

[The Avenger]

If people calculate ROI as it should be -

that logic is as dead as GPU mining btc

you know all the tricky accounting shady money fueling this miner surge not some dude wondering to spend his 30 btc and get 31btc back

All I can say is when I bought, I worked out how much BTC I could have bought at the same time. And my marker of success would be to mine back the same amount of BTC.

Conversion to dollar equivalent was never part of my equation, because that fluctuates wildly. If I got back 80BTC, even if BTC was only worth $10, I would consider that a success because I believe in BTC long-term.

If you count in the dollar equivalent, one week you made roi and the week after you haven 't made roi! That makes no sense for a piece of hardware that's usefulness depreciates exponentially. There has got to be a point where you say "Yes, I made back what I paid" and that only happens if you think in terms of mined BTC (not dollar equivalent).

The logic of that thinking is not dead. It's just the cost of hardware and the rush of new entrants who have no idea what they are doing make it impossible to get back what you paid. Plenty guys on here wouldn't touch a neptune with someone else #@$% because they know it's a bad investment. But so many people have been deluded or simply can't do the maths who stump up 13K and keep the hardware prices higher than they should be, way above what an informed market would pay.

It's people making videos for engadget and saying that people who spent 7K made 70K that are a major part of fueling this goldrush and deluding noobs. I hate that shit and it makes me angry.

I received my Jupiter on Oct 7th and also bought 2 upgrade modules when they went on sale. My total cost was ~66 BTC. I've mined ~59 BTC to date with 99.9% uptime and overclocking. I agree that many will not see ROI in btc. I expect to mine another 15-20 btc with my rig (currently running at 1TH/s) before the electricity becomes too expensive, which will mean I will ROI - eventually.

Thanks for the figures. I had no idea people who took delivery as early as Oct 7th still hadn't made 70BTC yet.

Which makes me wonder exactly how many people ACTUALLY made 70BTC (i.e. 70K), as our engadget interviewee above claims?

As knc said on the 11th October that they had only produced 700 units (https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-49), so that means the amount who mined 70BTC (70K) must be only a few hundred at most. Out of 7000-9000 October units shipped, that's not too impressive.

<awaits backlash for presenting facts people don't want to hear>

[kendog77]

He is bitter because he can't afford KnC gear, although he claimed to have KnC gear and yet he is dissapointed in it and said it will not ROI.
Why all of the other KnC customers can ROI and he is the only one that can't.

If people calculate ROI as it should be - how much btc could I have bought for the price I paid for the mining gear. For me, 80BTC. Will I ever get that from my knc gear? No. So zero profits, not even making back what I paid.

And I'm certain any one of the 2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI, in those terms.

But yeah, I'm the only one who won't ROI. Whatever asshole. You are totally delusional and we'll see how clever you are when your neptune arrives in Q2/Q3

It sounds like you're just terrible at timing hardware purchases. I've got three Jupiters that have been hashing away for 6 weeks are have already earned back 80% of the BTC I paid for them. When miners are priced in USD, the price of BTC at the time of purchase is probably the most important factor in determining whether or not a purchase will be profitable.

Also, ordering from a great company like Knc that isn't trying to screw over miners also helps.

[kendog77]

The part that bugs me is that no one is discussing '21e6' around here at all.  The first I heard of it was on Bloomberg news!? That is just strange.  They have massive capital backers.  KNC does have competition I think but it just might not be in their faces.

Makes me wonder about my Neptune's profitability come April.  My rule of 2 is looking bleak.

I was going to post this earlier, but decided against it as I'm, as usual, getting shit for pointing out facts. But anyway, "dark horses" and "neptune lovers":


After next difficulty change in 2 days, a neptune's 3TH will mine 1BTC/day.

And that is how much you will mine now, in January 2014, BEFORE CT/HF/Bitmine and any other dark horses release their full force.

Will they all have shipped before the end of Q1?

Work it out for yourselves neptune lovers...

Keep in ming that the BTC exchange rate was relatively high when Knc started selling Neptunes, so a lot of folks only paid between 10-13 BTC for early Neptune orders.

We're still a LONG way away from those early Neptune orders being unprofitable...

[nightengale]

I can understand batch 1 13k people getting nervous but batch 1 "pre-release" whatever you want to call it, should be fine.

I'm a pre-release customer and I'm still nervous. These dark horse mining manufacturers are getting kinda crazy. If KnC doesn't release any updated information on a timeline and performance specs soon, I'm sadly starting to think about requesting a refund. It's been a month and a half since since Neptune was announced and there have been no technical updates. They really pulled a rabbit out of their hat with Jupiter, but over-delivering on Neptune may not be as possible.

[The Avenger]

It sounds like you're just terrible at timing hardware purchases. I've got three Jupiters that have been hashing away for 6 weeks are have already earned back 80% of the BTC I paid for them.

Pretty much everyone bought October Jupiters when btc was hovering around $100. So me and 7000-9000 others were terrible at timing hardware purchases by that logic

In case it's unclear, I meant October units when I said "2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI". I wasn't talking about November units, just so that's clear.

November units are a different equation - what is the BTC ROI on those? 10-20BTC? I vaguely remember Phoenix saying he bought around the $350/btc mark.

[dimaze]

It's difficult to always project difficulty out. When I project it out, I generally do the worst case scenario.

With 30% difficulty jumps, with 10% lower difficulty per jump, an early July delivery Neptune that has a total cost of 11000 USD @ 0.15kWh, will still be profitable in 2014 (although just barely), at a 750 Bitcoin valuation. These are not small jumps at all and I would consider it the worst case scenario (first jump is 400m, 450m, 500m, ect)

@Avenger, I do agree that buying and holding has been historically better. I believe most individuals that purchased various hardware in BTC would today have opted to buy and hold. Any Day 1 / Day 2 owners that can comment how much their units have generated to date in BTC? Let us know what device and average GH is as well. It is possible that you could have mined enough, and sold your coins and miners when it was at an ATH to earn 70k+ off a single miner. I think we're approaching that point where an original BTC investment may pay off. Of course, a year down the line, we may look at today very differently - that's what I love about this ride.

[chrono030]

It sounds like you're just terrible at timing hardware purchases. I've got three Jupiters that have been hashing away for 6 weeks are have already earned back 80% of the BTC I paid for them.

Pretty much everyone bought October Jupiters when btc was hovering around $100. So me and 7000-9000 others were terrible at timing hardware purchases by that logic

In case it's unclear, I meant October units when I said "2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI". I wasn't talking about November units, just so that's clear.

November units are a different equation - what is the BTC ROI on those? 10-20BTC? I vaguely remember Phoenix saying he bought around the $350/btc mark.

Bitcoin price was around 150 bucks (except for the huge jump near the end when it hit 200).  Units were 5000 each and had a 10% discount on BTC payemnts (4500/150=30 BTC needed to break even)

[kendog77]

It sounds like you're just terrible at timing hardware purchases. I've got three Jupiters that have been hashing away for 6 weeks are have already earned back 80% of the BTC I paid for them.

Pretty much everyone bought October Jupiters when btc was hovering around $100. So me and 7000-9000 others were terrible at timing hardware purchases by that logic

In case it's unclear, I meant October units when I said "2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI". I wasn't talking about November units, just so that's clear.

November units are a different equation - what is the BTC ROI on those? 10-20BTC? I vaguely remember Phoenix saying he bought around the $350/btc mark.

November Jupiters were priced at 5k and were still available when the BTC exchange rate started going up, so I think a lot of folks picked them up from KNC for between 10-15 BTC, which was a pretty good deal.

Early Neptune orders will likely still be profitable if the difficulty is ~3 times as high as it is now. If it goes much higher than that before Neptunes ship, then I'll start to get nervous...

[chrono030]

It's difficult to always project difficulty out. When I project it out, I generally do the worst case scenario.

With 30% difficulty jumps, with 10% lower difficulty per jump, an early July delivery Neptune that has a total cost of 11000 USD @ 0.15kWh, will still be profitable in 2014 (although just barely), at a 750 Bitcoin valuation. These are not small jumps at all and I would consider it the worst case scenario (first jump is 400m, 450m, 500m, ect)

@Avenger, I do agree that buying and holding has been historically better. I believe most individuals that purchased various hardware in BTC would today have opted to buy and hold. Any Day 1 / Day 2 owners that can comment how much their units have generated to date in BTC? Let us know what device and average GH is as well. It is possible that you could have mined enough, and sold your coins and miners when it was at an ATH to earn 70k+ off a single miner. I think we're approaching that point where an original BTC investment may pay off. Of course, a year down the line, we may look at today very differently - that's what I love about this ride.

I have a day one jupiter (that was actually shipped on day one) that has already passed the BTC required to break even.  If i was to sell the unit, i would be very much in the black.  It was clearly a good investment from a BTC and Fiat standpoint

[Phoenix1969]

I think KnC will shipped the Neptunes faster than we think.
They always overdelivered.

Haaaaaaaaaa haha. They haven't even taped out, they are still working on neptune chip design. No way you'll see diddly in Q1.

What is the atmosphere like on planet "SelfDelusion", the biggest planet of them all in the knc thread?

Interesting....start it at 9 min.
no more jupiters
Quote:
"We were waiting for competition, before we released more, and we're still waiting for competition;
So, we decided to compete with ourselves, and go on to the next generation."
Guess we have our answer.

[Phoenix1969]

He is bitter because he can't afford KnC gear, although he claimed to have KnC gear and yet he is dissapointed in it and said it will not ROI.
Why all of the other KnC customers can ROI and he is the only one that can't.

If people calculate ROI as it should be - how much btc could I have bought for the price I paid for the mining gear. For me, 80BTC. Will I ever get that from my knc gear? No. So zero profits, not even making back what I paid.

And I'm certain any one of the 2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI, in those terms.

But yeah, I'm the only one who won't ROI. Whatever asshole. You are totally delusional and we'll see how clever you are when your neptune arrives in Q2/Q3

knc didn't accept bitcoin from you, they accepted USD thru Bitpay, so your calc needs to be done in USD, not BTC.

[matthewh3]

It sounds like you're just terrible at timing hardware purchases. I've got three Jupiters that have been hashing away for 6 weeks are have already earned back 80% of the BTC I paid for them.

Pretty much everyone bought October Jupiters when btc was hovering around $100. So me and 7000-9000 others were terrible at timing hardware purchases by that logic

In case it's unclear, I meant October units when I said "2000 - 5000 devices shipped after October 16th will not ROI". I wasn't talking about November units, just so that's clear.

November units are a different equation - what is the BTC ROI on those? 10-20BTC? I vaguely remember Phoenix saying he bought around the $350/btc mark.

November Jupiters were priced at 5k and were still available when the BTC exchange rate started going up, so I think a lot of folks picked them up from KNC for between 10-15 BTC, which was a pretty good deal.

Early Neptune orders will likely still be profitable if the difficulty is ~3 times as high as it is now. If it goes much higher than that before Neptunes ship, then I'll start to get nervous...

I did a rough calculation that batch one $10K Neptunes have until early May to be delivered to achieve their ROI in bitcoin at current average network difficulty growth.  While I'm not expecting the current average difficulty growth to increase much more and may actually continue easing off.  Unless we get some more dramatic price rises.  Which could push up the network difficulty growth.  So let's hope for price drops until they're delivered and then straight up to $10K per coin  

[btcspender]

Interesting....start it at 9 min.
no more jupiters
Quote:
"We were waiting for competition, before we released more, and we're still waiting for competition;
So, we decided to compete with ourselves, and go on to the next generation."
Guess we have our answer.

Should be more jups in a few weeks go to 18:30