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Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 5 (3.2%)
<$7,000 - 4 (2.5%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 1 (0.6%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 3 (1.9%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 4 (2.5%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 27 (17.1%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 24 (15.2%)
$10,500-10,999 - 12 (7.6%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 14 (8.9%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 15 (9.5%)
>$12,000 - 36 (22.8%)
>$20,000 - 13 (8.2%)
Total Voters: 158

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21243647 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (66 posts by 16 users deleted.)
rezurect007
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January 25, 2018, 05:15:37 PM
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Torque
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January 25, 2018, 05:22:36 PM


Thanks, contrarian indicator confirmed. Please tell all your buddies to short with max leverage.  Wink
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January 25, 2018, 05:25:39 PM

merited by Last of the V8s - haha
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January 25, 2018, 05:35:03 PM
Last edit: February 15, 2018, 03:04:25 PM by DavidLutz
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Price drop was because the lunar festival check the graphs here: 2015 https://i.imgur.com/BrwD1wp.jpg , 2016 https://imgur.com/FKvJtmI , 2017 https://imgur.com/QVJkDoc . More info here: https://bitcoinvest.cc

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January 25, 2018, 05:45:12 PM
Last edit: January 25, 2018, 06:46:16 PM by BobLawblaw
Merited by Dabs (1), d_eddie (1)

I am calling for a nice little spike within 36 hours.

Remember: NO LUBE !

EDIT: Meh. Pulled my sell wall @ $12.5k, for... reasons.
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January 25, 2018, 05:52:14 PM
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CME first contract closes tommorow, so no doubt the tin-foil hat brigade will be out again.

I'll pre-empt them.... Smiley

Any large volumes over the next 24 hours can be attributed to Wall Street maniulating the price to profit from this contract closing.
I think we can expect a reversal of this movement once the contract has closed.

"Trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on the last Friday of the contract month"

Strap-in or damp squib?   I dunno.
rezurect007
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January 25, 2018, 05:55:43 PM
Merited by cAPSLOCK (1)

The chart title does not reflect the intention. It's not a for a short.
Its 8.5k not 8-5k as in the  url:
I understand we might form support here and lift off.
Im holding since 9k.
Have buy orders all the way down, in case it heads that direction.

I do have very few 500$ coins from 2013. My original a/c in my sig. was hacked.

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January 25, 2018, 06:06:16 PM

CME first contract closes tommorow, so no doubt the tin-foil hat brigade will be out again.

I'll pre-empt them.... Smiley

Any large volumes over the next 24 hours can be attributed to Wall Street maniulating the price to profit from this contract closing.
I think we can expect a reversal of this movement once the contract has closed.

"Trading terminates at 4:00 p.m. London time on the last Friday of the contract month"

Strap-in or damp squib?   I dunno.

How much money has been thrown at the CME first contract? If it's a massive amount the contract closing could = strap-in. If it's a small amount the contract closing could = damp squib.
pera
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­バカ


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January 25, 2018, 06:31:53 PM
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[...]
Serious question. I'm trying to understand the delusions and fallacies associated with the altcoin market. So far I'm still not getting it.

Or if you just consider it a "buy" because you think it's going to get pumped one day, then just say so. Penny stocks see their day in the sun sometimes too.

Most altcoins are just pump-and-dump schemes. But there are a few ones that are really trying to do novel things: see for instance Zcash and Monero (anonymous transactions), or Cardano and Ethereum (Turing complete smart contracts and PoS). Bitcoin is not trying to do those things, and I personally believe that's great (Unix philosophy), but there is no reason why others shouldn't try to develop solutions for a different set of problems.

My last Bitcoin transaction cost me a bit less than 2 USD (at that time) and took more than 7 hours for the first confirm. It was not as bad as those "$25 dollars txs" that so many people were complaining about, but it was not that good either... In contrast, Litecoin transactions cost a few cents and you get the first confirm in a couple of minutes. This is not to say that Litecoin is a better long term investment than Bitcoin, but if one had to pay for anything during a mempool crisis, Litecoin would be a better choice economically and practically speaking. So maybe part of the LTC rally we saw last year was simply due to this.

I believe once SegWit and LN finally get implemented and deployed everywhere, things will improve and maybe even be like in the "old" days for a few years at least. Not everyone shares this optimistic vision, but even if you do, you have to understand that if Bitcoin is extremely successful (i.e. massive global adoption) then tx volume will keep growing indefinitely, and of course fees will follow, meaning that on-chain txs won't be super common for ordinary people. We may see then a zoo of altcoins (in the same way today we have a zoo of gift cards, credit cards and state currencies) being used for different purposes and being traded using cross-chain atomic swaps.
micgoossens
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January 25, 2018, 06:39:48 PM
Last edit: January 25, 2018, 07:28:02 PM by micgoossens
Merited by flynn (1), d_eddie (1)

Breaking 24777$ prediction game      FINAL LIST       

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31/12/2017 Raja_MBZ Sad
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16/04/2018 practicaldreamer
18/04/2018 free-bit.co.in
27/04/2018 drbrockoin
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07/07/2018 IntroVert
03/08/2018 toxic2040
28/08/2018 bitserve
15/10/2018 Yefi
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31/12/2018 melman2002
01/01/2019 Spaceman_Spiff_Original
12/02/2019 FractalUniverse
21/04/2019 gentlemand
20/02/2020 romneymoney
18/12/2021 luckygenough56

UPDATE     AND GOOD LUCK

Elwar
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January 25, 2018, 06:43:10 PM

The triangle closes around the 28th. I predict it drops down within this long term trend line.

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yes


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January 25, 2018, 06:47:22 PM
Merited by Dabs (1), JayJuanGee (1), ErisDiscordia (1)

Want to really see that DAG under stress.

Actually, I would like to see:
* basic wallet functionality like generating a random wallet address
* transactions always confirming
* fool proof solution to avoid address reuse (=vulnerable under IOTA system)

Before that happens, I do not consider it a buy until below $0.50.

/off topic


The real question is why would you consider it a "buy" at all? Does it feel good to have a slick hypothetically functioning payment system that mimics Bitcoin, but no one ever uses to buy things with because there is zero merchant adoption?

...

I don’t think Bitcoin is established (yet) as the sole cryptocurrency of choice for everyone on planet Earth. Adaption in genuine use cases is a non-existent feature for now, also for Bitcoin. Frankly, I do not think that Bitcoin will ever take the position as one and only cryptocurrency and that we will remain forever to have a variety of coins (including FIAT brothers) with their own fans. Yes, I expect Dogecoin to be still there after 10 years, whether (micro)pennystock or not (just like Tittycoin or other shitcoin). It does not matter.

For now, the race for leadership is still fully on with Bitcoin having a lead but that’s not carved in stone. It is not said that this will be the case forever. In a use case whereby ‘no fees’ micro transactions are vital, IOTA would clearly have a lead over most other cryptocurrencies, assuming they can get their clusterf* of a wallet and network stability up to standards.

Besides that, having various altcoins around with new variations and technologies popping up all the time is vital for the survival of this digital phenomenon. Adapt continuously or die. So I welcome altcoins instead of loathing them.

TL;DR: Bitcoin still reigns, but it will not be forever. I see a purpose and place for various altcoins.
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January 25, 2018, 07:17:35 PM
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SEC Statement - surprisingly supportive of crypto. 

Quote
Distributed ledger technology, or DLT, is the advancement that underpins an array of new financial products, including cryptocurrencies and digital payment services. Many have identified DLT as the next great driver of economic efficiency. Some have even compared it to productivity-driving innovations such as the steam engine and personal computer.

Our task, as market regulators, is to set and enforce rules that foster innovation while promoting market integrity and confidence. In recent months, we have seen a wide range of market participants, including retail investors, seeking to invest in DLT initiatives, including through cryptocurrencies and so-called ICOs—initial coin offerings. Experience tells us that while some market participants may make fortunes, the risks to all investors are high. Caution is merited.

A key issue before market regulators is whether our historic approach to the regulation of currency transactions is appropriate for the cryptocurrency markets. Check-cashing and money-transmission services that operate in the U.S. are primarily state-regulated. Many of the internet-based cryptocurrency trading platforms have registered as payment services and are not subject to direct oversight by the SEC or the CFTC. We would support policy efforts to revisit these frameworks and ensure they are effective and efficient for the digital era.

The CFTC and SEC, along with other federal and state regulators and criminal authorities, will continue to work together to bring transparency and integrity to these markets and, importantly, to deter and prosecute fraud and abuse. These markets are new, evolving and international. As such they require us to be nimble and forward-looking; coordinated with our state, federal and international colleagues; and engaged with important stakeholders, including Congress.

http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr7680-18
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January 25, 2018, 07:27:42 PM
Merited by Dabs (1), Wekkel (1), JayJuanGee (1), ErisDiscordia (1), rezurect007 (1)

This guy makes a good case for why the CME futures expiry tomorrow will be a nonevent: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7syd2c/expiring_futures_tomorrow_not_so_fast/

Quote
The CME futures expire tomorrow, and everyone is panicking that Wall Street will manipulate the price downward to gain the most profit... But it's not that simple; CME has limits on what any given entity can hold, that make it almost unprofitable given the cost of manipulation.

Any entity is limited to owning 1k contracts containing 5btc each. Every $5 move in bitcoin is a $25 profit/loss on a contract. In the recent month, we saw the price move from $19k to $10k potentially tomorrow at expiration - accounting for a $9k price move, meaning $45M possible profit (per entity holding the maximum 1k contracts; every $1k move in btc price equals a $5M profit/loss). I am a realist, and do believe that multiple entities could collect and agree on a direction (for example 10 groups) meaning the profit would be $450M for the month of January. However, open interest today says this isn't happening (more on that below).

To manipulate the price today, it costs about $15M to buy all the btc within $1k of the current price (based on the depth chart in GDAX). The group of 10 entities (referenced above) could agree to spend $15M to move the price lower by $1k, thus gaining the group of 10 a total of $50M (or a $35M profit for the group by spending $15M). This will not hold the price down the $1k, however, and many traders would instantly gobble up the orders at the lower price, meaning the entities would need to do this multiple times to keep the price low. A realistic strategy for Wall Street is going to be to hold their "manipulation money" until right before the market closes, and push price down in the hours leading up to expiration (4pm London time, or 11am Eastern Time for CME futures).

As the market matures and becomes more balanced, these opportunities will be harder to accomplish, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable that this could happen tomorrow, but likely in the 9am-11am hours, and likely immediately rebound back.

Finally, the open interest on the futures expiring tomorrow is currently at 1,459 contracts, meaning the total bitcoin in play here is 7,295 btc or ~$80M, meaning the cost of manipulation will dramatically cut into profits. This also means there is not a group of 10 entities teaming up to manipulate the price.

Just food for thought as people prepare for the Wall Street futures dip tomorrow...

TLDR; I don't think it'll happen, the business case and open interest just isn't there.
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January 25, 2018, 07:59:43 PM
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For now, the race for leadership is still fully on with Bitcoin having a lead but that’s not carved in stone. It is not said that this will be the case forever. In a use case whereby ‘no fees’ micro transactions are vital, IOTA would clearly have a lead over most other cryptocurrencies, assuming they can get their clusterf* of a wallet and network stability up to standards.

Besides that, having various altcoins around with new variations and technologies popping up all the time is vital for the survival of this digital phenomenon. Adapt continuously or die. So I welcome altcoins instead of loathing them.

...  I see a purpose and place for various altcoins.

You guys still talk about all these various coins in some hypothetical future where you see them being "used" for various things. But without the ONE CRITICAL thing, mass merchant adoption, they won't be used for anything other than trading. That's all. Years and years will pass by, and they won't have achieved merchant adoption on any significant level. So what then?  Just trade?

How long will you guys give these also-ran shitcoins before the fallacy of "some future use case blah blah blah" never materializes? A few years? A decade? Two? There is only so long that something can exist on pure hype.

Besides that, having various altcoins around with new variations and technologies popping up all the time is vital for the survival of this digital phenomenon. Adapt continuously or die.

That is a GIANT fallacy if I've ever heard one. Bitcoin in no way shape or form has to continuously "evolve" beyond a certain point to become the predominant form of digital money or digital gold 2.0 on a worldwide scale. (Notice I said "beyond a certain point", bc it is not there quite yet).  In the same way Gold does not have to continuously "evolve" to be a sound physical store of value.
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January 25, 2018, 08:22:51 PM

I am calling for a nice little spike within 36 hours.

Remember: NO LUBE !

EDIT: Meh. Pulled my sell wall @ $12.5k, for... reasons.


Bobbie..its going to be ok.
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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January 25, 2018, 08:28:51 PM

I am calling for a nice little spike within 36 hours.

Remember: NO LUBE !

EDIT: Meh. Pulled my sell wall @ $12.5k, for... reasons.


Bobbie..its going to be ok.


Oh.. you can gloat now, Toxic.

Yesterday, you were shaking in your boots regarding potential consequences of such an inaccurate BTC price prediction.

I will add that it seems that BTC prices are still in a kind of bouncing around territory, and even largely in the middle our current price consolidation range - perhaps $10k-ish to $13k-ish.
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January 25, 2018, 08:32:20 PM
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ASSLESS CHAPS

ASSLESS CHAPS

ASSLESS CHAPS
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January 25, 2018, 08:44:19 PM
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I am calling for a nice little spike within 36 hours.

Remember: NO LUBE !

EDIT: Meh. Pulled my sell wall @ $12.5k, for... reasons.


Bobbie..its going to be ok.


Oh.. you can gloat now, Toxic.

Yesterday, you were shaking in your boots regarding potential consequences of such an inaccurate BTC price prediction.

I will add that it seems that BTC prices are still in a kind of bouncing around territory, and even largely in the middle our current price consolidation range - perhaps $10k-ish to $13k-ish.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day..  /s

Naa..not my style JJG..I am actually concerned for Bob. Dealing with end game financials is enough to make anyone on edge. If anything I am still recovering from this Weiss report...left a sour taste I do believe.

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January 25, 2018, 08:51:45 PM

...


How long will you guys give these also-ran shitcoins before the fallacy of "some future use case blah blah blah" never materializes? A few years? A decade? Two? There is only so long that something can exist on pure hype.

...

I think they will not really die, but rather linger on for a fraction of their former value.

If a cryptocurrency newcomer asks me about my opinion of altcoins I usually gently guide him
towards these articles that destroy all altcoin enthusiasm pretty fast:
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-problem-with-altcoins/
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-coming-demise-of-altcoins/
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/appcoins-are-snake-oil/
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/its-not-about-the-technology-its-about-the-money/

These articles are a few years old, but nothing has really changed except that
a few new platforms where these coins/tokens are launched have emerged (e.g. ICOs
on top of Stellar or NEO).

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