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December 09, 2019, 09:44:57 AM *
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Question: Dec. 14 Closing Price:
<$6,000 - 7 (11.1%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 3 (4.8%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 5 (7.9%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 7 (11.1%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 13 (20.6%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 10 (15.9%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 3 (4.8%)
>$9,000 - 15 (23.8%)
Total Voters: 63

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21454013 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (136 posts by 30 users deleted.)
Lauda
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September 25, 2019, 08:29:32 AM
Merited by Paashaas (1), Raja_MBZ (1), psycodad (1)

There may be a bigger problem, signalled by the collapse in hash rate, but that remains to be seen.
there is no collapse of hashrate. it was just a dip.  Wink

hashrate is currently around 90,000,000 TH/s (https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
People are really ignorant and annoying about the hashrate every single time. There's a thing called variance, and hashrate isn't going anywhere but up. Mark my words.
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September 25, 2019, 08:40:52 AM

Price of bitcoin is below $8500 now,made me shocked when I wokeup today.

I need sleeping pills to stay away from this stress for a while.

Anyone! Undecided

Healthy alternatives:

1. chill more

2. zoom out (and chill even more)

If that doesn't help:
3. Send your smartphone to a family member in a nice little package, tell him/her to never pick it up at the post office. Wait until it gets sent back to you. Check price again  Grin

In the worst case:
4. Sell your coins at a cheap price (to me) and use that Fiat for a long vacation in any region of the world with no internet access.


EDIT:
2.5. Read some postings by realr0ach and check daily gold/silver charts. Compare to bitcoin.

If you like pulling your hair out, maybe if you think baldy heads are fashionable, sell your scam bitcoins and invest into craig's satoshi's real vision or the zombie coin (see mc afee twitter history).

If not, laugh more. You don't need a reason for laughing. One of the really free things in life  Grin
Out of SM at the moment. Lips sealed

I will try 2 like I always do but I can't control my feelings when it was dump but this time I didn't buy any bitcoin which thing I could feel little relax about.
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September 25, 2019, 08:45:17 AM

Briefly visited 8200 no significant bounce back followed and now fighting for 8300 it seems?  Cool
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September 25, 2019, 08:50:18 AM

Interesting possibility to converge back to the 2015 fractal

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September 25, 2019, 08:54:49 AM

Don't panic.
S2F model still in play.



Graph from : https://digitalik.net/btc/

Market is still following SF model, all in place for Halving rally.
Of course one could argue that with the market knowing this model the halving rally should be rationally anticipating actual halving, not following it like in 2016.
But still, let's try to see the glass half full glass.
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September 25, 2019, 08:58:57 AM

Decent dump before q4 glory.
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September 25, 2019, 09:19:07 AM
Merited by Dotto (2), Paashaas (1), 600watt (1)



Just one of those moments to test your toughness.

I warned you that this day would come. Weak hands are being shaked out.

Ts all good. Hodl.

If you sell now, you never deserved to win anyway.
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September 25, 2019, 09:32:34 AM


Just one of those moments to test your toughness.

I warned you that this day would come. Weak hands are being shaked out.

Ts all good. Hodl.

If you sell now, you never deserved to win anyway.
WO people.
Observing $8,349.9
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September 25, 2019, 09:36:22 AM

has anyone an overview of the different Bitcoin derivatives on CME, CBOE, NYSE etc.

and open and close times of the exchanges?

thank you!

EDIT: is it just CME and NYSE (Bakkt) in the US? and CBOE paused the futures? what about Bitcoin options in the US?

EDIT2: thanks fillippone! you're my man! (#nohomo)  Grin

EDIT3: CME Bitcoin options soon in 2020 --> https://www.coindesk.com/cme-group-is-launching-bitcoin-options-early-in-2020
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September 25, 2019, 09:38:27 AM

There may be a bigger problem, signalled by the collapse in hash rate, but that remains to be seen.
there is no collapse of hashrate. it was just a dip.  Wink

hashrate is currently around 90,000,000 TH/s (https://www.blockchain.com/de/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days
People are really ignorant and annoying about the hashrate every single time. There's a thing called variance, and hashrate isn't going anywhere but up. Mark my words.

Here in the The Netherlands we call these kind of people " azijnpissers" ore in English a crabby person.
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September 25, 2019, 09:39:17 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), gentlemand (1), JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1)

has anyone an overview of the different Bitcoin derivatives on CME, CBOE, NYSE etc.

and open and close times of the exchanges?

thank you!

BAKKT:
https://www.theice.com/products/72035464/Bakkt-Bitcoin-USD-Monthly-Futures-Contract/data?marketId=6137541


CITY   TRADING   PRE-OPEN
NEW YORK   8:00 PM - 6:00 PM*
20:00 - 18:00   7:55 PM
19:55
LONDON   1:00 AM - 11:00 PM*
01:00 - 23:00   12:55 AM
00:55
SINGAPORE   8:00 AM - 6:00 AM*
08:00 - 06:00   7:55 AM
07:55


CME:
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin.html

Trading Hours:
Sunday - Friday 6:00 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. (5:00 p.m. - 4:00 p.m/ CT) with a 60-minute break each day beginning at 5:00 p.m. (4:00 p.m. CT)

CT is Central time:
Currently Central Daylight Time (CDT), UTC -5
Standard time (Central Standard Time (CST), UTC -6) starts November 3, 2019


CBOE:
Out of Business.


Wondering to write a post (or a thread ) recapping differences between futures, future terminology, and a little bit of theory (what is a future , in the first place, what does words such as volume,  contango,backwardation, settlement price etc means) Do you think it is useful?

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September 25, 2019, 09:43:04 AM
Merited by 600watt (1)

Not sure what kind of cuckold, losers are selling now but hey, whatever floats your boat.
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September 25, 2019, 09:45:43 AM
Merited by Bossian (1)

Don't panic.
S2F model still in play.

If 'stock to flow' worked on digital shitcoins, there wouldn't be thousands of dead PoW coins to already exist, yet you retard scammers continuously spam this 'stock to flow' lie to try and deceive people for personal gain.  Stock to flow only works on real commodity resources with some sort of inelastic demand, not fake, imaginary commodities that you can corner all 21 million coins and the rest of the world can completely ignore you like you don't even exist.

These idiotic 'stock to flow' charts people post don't even acknowledge classifications of goods falling into different categories such as price sensitive or price insensitive.  Things falling on the base of Maslow's Pyramid that people need to not die like food are generally price insensitive.  Nobody actually needs Bitcoin for anything since it's a fake commodity and not a resource, so it's not price insensitive.  Assuming there's any demand for it at all, the demand could go to zero just from the price doubling, yet these idiotic charts claim it can go up 10x and demand is exactly the same.  They falsely claim Bitcoin is a commodity when it's not, then they falsely claim it's a price insensitive commodity to boot.
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September 25, 2019, 09:49:18 AM

Wondering to write a post (or a thread ) recapping differences between futures, future terminology, and a little bit of theory (what is a future , in the first place, what does words such as volume,  contango,backwardation, settlement price etc means) Do you think it is useful?

wow, that would you really do? I'm eager to learn from the master...  Grin

(currently just a FX trading homeboy)  Grin
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September 25, 2019, 09:51:30 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), 600watt (1)

so anyone expect to pass past ath without any great moves up or down (like in this case)? strange world we living in

i'm not telling we are going past 19k (even if i think probably will) but c'mon, you need to have the balls to stand more then couple thousand correction, think about couple of months around 100.000k and then a crash of 10.000k, remeber that's btc here
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September 25, 2019, 09:55:35 AM
Merited by Phil_S (2), 600watt (1)

[edited out]
By "all in" I mean all saved fiat. I own an appartment and a car. With my current profit from Bitcoin, I have the same amount that I will obtain from my salary for the next 20 years until I retire. And I usually save 2/3 of my salary which I convert immediately into bitcoins. Am I at the "fuck you" zone? Not yet, as I have to ensure my retirement. But in the 30-40K price range I will have enough to do it at least in my country, and live happily in a nice beach villa for the rest of my life. That is why I said this is an important level to me. On the other hand, I prefer to wait for the price which I believe is achievable in my lifetime. 40K is a too low and sure target, 120K is way more chalenging but satisfying. So I have 2 plans which depend on my needs in real life. If I am convinced that 40K is the top of the next bull run before a long and nasty bear year(s), I may be tempted to sell most of my stash. But if I am not sure, I will spend only 10-20% at that price range and continue to sell up to 120K. I may use some scheme like 10, 20, 30, 40% on every 50% (or 75%) rise of the price. It is based on your suggestions, which I tweaked a bit, so the overall loss is smaller compared to selling all at 120K. It saves more bitcoins for the bigger prices! My final sell would be at 120K. Plus, anything that I buy from now on untill I start to cash out, I will keep for the time when we finally reach the moon. Will it be 500K, 1mil, etc. I don't know yet. Time will tell.

What you are planning makes sense, and almost no matter what it seems difficult to really have any meaningful sense regarding whether any blow off top would be at previous ATH (path) x2, x6 or x10 or some other amount, so I am unsure about how prudent it would be to make vastly differing plans based on your anticipation of your then feelings about whether a blow off top has been reached. 

Another dynamic that I can sense that you are toying with is to consider to be able to move some of the value that you have in BTC to some other locked in and assured asset, in order to preserve your BTC profits, and I am kind of torn about the necessity to act on those kinds of motivations, even though I understand that so many people have those kinds of motivations - so none of us can really step into the comfort level of other people. 

Part of my thinking comes from the Morpheus meme that you might not need to hedge so much into other investments because merely keeping some value in bitcoin will be sustaining enough based on all available options and even while understanding that BTC corrections might still be violent, BTC is still likely to sufficiently hold enough value that there is no real rush to employ rash strategies in terms of cashing out your holdings.

This morpheus meme:



I think it is perfectly normal to have 2 plans. We all know that Bitcoin will reach 100K or more. The only unknown variable now is exactly how long this will take. The historical pattern says end of 2021 or early 2022. But nobody can be sure about that. We may need another halving to occur i.e. after 2024, or even more. In that case there will be many dissapointments and missed opportunites to become rich. And man's heart can't endure forever such bad things. Considering however, that I continue to buy in all these years, I may reach my goal in terms of fiat for prices around 50K. I don't want this to happen, and I don't think it will happen, but it is theoretically possible that we are stuck at levels 20K-50K for a prolonged period of time.

Let's say I have 16 BTC (they could have been much more, but in 2015 I didn't even suspect that Bitcoin price could go much higher than $200 so soon). So the 1st super duper bearish plan (based on my personal 10x profit) is:

2,00 for $36 000
2,00 for $40 000
4,35 for $44 000
4,15 for $46 000
3,50 for $48 000

Total: $700 000. If I can buy more coins before 36K, I will keep them for 100K.  And if the year is 2025 or later, I will have may be 3-4 or more coins. Considering my expenses are $5K per year and that I can build a luxury house for 200K, this amount should be enough even if I quadruple the monthly expenses. ( I am speaking for an early retirement 10 years instead of 20 from now.)

But what I am hoping for is selling based on the follwing pattern until 2022 (plus all bitcoins bought before my 1st selling point, kept for later moons above 200K). It is a tweaked version of your plan, which you gave to mindrust some time ago. It is based on the principle 10, 20, 30, 40% sells after each 50% increase. The last sell could be distributed between 120K and 150K.

Sell Price    BTC balance    PfolioBeforeValue    BTCSell Amt    PfolioAfterValue    soldValue      soldTotal
$40,000       16.00000000    $640,000             0.00000000     $640,000            $0.00           $0.00
$40,000       16.00000000    $640,000             1.60000000     $576,000            $64,000        $64,000
$60,000       14.40000000    $864,000             3.20000000     $672,000            $192,000       $256,000
$90,000       11.20000000    $1,008,000          4.80000000     $576,000            $432,000       $688,000
$135,000       6.40000000    $864,000             6.40000000     $0                      $864,000       $1,552,000

Then I can build a beach villa which I could use or lend. And one day if I am sick of it, I surely will be able to sell it 2-3 times higher, so the initial cash out at 40K-60K won't be lost.

P.S. I know this looks like hopium especially to the daily traders, but this increase is only 10x from 14K this year. There were much bigger increases even for one year, not to mention for 3 years. The only question is when 100K, not if!
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September 25, 2019, 10:02:57 AM

Not sure what kind of cuckold, losers are selling now but hey, whatever floats your boat.

Miners? Just a guess...
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September 25, 2019, 10:04:54 AM

There may be a bigger problem, signalled by the collapse in hash rate, but that remains to be seen.

rumors say there is a mining regulation issue in Mongolia. no longer allowed to mine Bitcoin there.

https://www.coindesk.com/inner-mongolia-to-shutdown-illegal-bitcoin-miners-by-october-as-china-phases-out-industry

China bans BTC for the 20.000th time....  Grin Grin Grin
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September 25, 2019, 10:06:48 AM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Decent dump before q4 glory.

Glory for HODLers, gloryhole for nocoiners   Grin Grin Grin
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September 25, 2019, 10:07:30 AM

China bans BTC for the 20.000th time....  Grin Grin Grin

"Trading and possessing cryptocurrencies is illegal in China as part of broader currency controls, but crypto use is prevalent on the black market."

That's at least one piece of complete and utter bilge from that article so who knows whether any of the rest of it is true?

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