ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[mechs]

I hope the share price drops to 1.2. Then a) we won't hear from Vycid anymore and b) I can buy cheap shares.

For what it's worth, everyone who got very annoyed at Vycid has been proved wrong and he has been proved right. All the time he said (as did I) that AM was a great company, but was over-valued at 5/4/3 BTC he got shouted down, told he was spreading FUD etc.

Guess what, the market has deteremined the price and right now it's the sub-2 level that was predicted. The market has decided this, not Vycid and all the 'to the moon' AM fanboys should be eating just a little humble pie right now.

It's not to say that we won't have a huge and sudden bouce when AM bring on stream their new chips etc though. This does highlight the stupidity of looking at hash-rates/shares/divs on a weekly basis, as the resulting share volatility is so high.

Until you guys have not see the financial statements for AM, you can not evaluate the company. Period.
Until then, it's all pure speculation and frankly, a really useless one.

"market has deteremined"

Really, based on exactly what? Colour of the sky or friedcats eyes? Or just emotions and rampant hysteria, present in 600+ pages of useless guessing?
 
Please put pressure on Friedcat and get the numbers published.
Only then start talking about what AM is worth now or estimate it's future value.

The lack of transparency about the financial statements in itself is a red flag which is a deserving reason to further lower the share price.

[lophie]

Something is a bit noticeable in the this share price fiasco... For a while now TAT.ASICMINER is traded on higher prices than G.ASICMNER-PT. Given that Ukyo dealt with the whole PT ownership transfer thing, I started to think that the price is undervalued due to a specific type of long term investors cashing out. Probably some IPO shareholders. I don't blame them this is the strategy I am following myself. To wait until competition arises. Sell all shares and "maybe" get back in smaller percentage of portfolio when the price is even lower.

The question is for the long term investors that are willing to hold their grounds. How long would this storm persist............

Answer our question, oh dear cat.

[adamstgBit]

Something is a bit noticeable in the this share price fiasco... For a while now TAT.ASICMINER is traded on higher prices than G.ASICMNER-PT. Given that Ukyo dealt with the whole PT ownership transfer thing, I started to think that the price is undervalued due to a specific type of long term investors cashing out. Probably some IPO shareholders. I don't blame them this is the strategy I am following myself. To wait until competition arises. Sell all shares and "maybe" get back in smaller percentage of portfolio when the price is even lower.

The question is for the long term investors that are willing to hold their grounds. How long would this storm persist............

Answer our question, oh dear cat.

it will take a while...
but selling now it kinda silly
we all know and understand why the divs have been a bit low
yet at these prices it still 30%

[ThunderSheep]

I hope the share price drops to 1.2. Then a) we won't hear from Vycid anymore and b) I can buy cheap shares.

For what it's worth, everyone who got very annoyed at Vycid has been proved wrong and he has been proved right. All the time he said (as did I) that AM was a great company, but was over-valued at 5/4/3 BTC he got shouted down, told he was spreading FUD etc.

Guess what, the market has deteremined the price and right now it's the sub-2 level that was predicted. The market has decided this, not Vycid and all the 'to the moon' AM fanboys should be eating just a little humble pie right now.

It's not to say that we won't have a huge and sudden bouce when AM bring on stream their new chips etc though. This does highlight the stupidity of looking at hash-rates/shares/divs on a weekly basis, as the resulting share volatility is so high.

Until you guys have not see the financial statements for AM, you can not evaluate the company. Period.
Until then, it's all pure speculation and frankly, a really useless one.

"market has deteremined"

Really, based on exactly what? Colour of the sky or friedcats eyes? Or just emotions and rampant hysteria, present in 600+ pages of useless guessing?
 
Please put pressure on Friedcat and get the numbers published.
Only then start talking about what AM is worth now or estimate it's future value.

Does this count?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2788821#msg2788821

Edit: If he plans to update quarterly, you should have updated numbers in about a month.

[stripykitteh]

The market has determined that a price of 1.55BTC per share (Bitfunder) is a fair price for a company that would yield 30% a year (calculating from the worst div they ever gave)?

The market beg to disagree and who does not see this as an opportunity to buy in is not realistic. The silence of The Cat is indeed a scary thing but what is getting the price down is just panic.

My opinion only.

The question you need to ask yourself is whether dividends at this level are sustainable or not. Without a clear picture of what upcoming expenses there are, you can't say.

[lophie]

The market has determined that a price of 1.55BTC per share (Bitfunder) is a fair price for a company that would yield 30% a year (calculating from the worst div they ever gave)?

The market beg to disagree and who does not see this as an opportunity to buy in is not realistic. The silence of The Cat is indeed a scary thing but what is getting the price down is just panic.

My opinion only.

The question you need to ask yourself is whether dividends at this level are sustainable or not. Without a clear picture of what upcoming expenses there are, you can't say.

Indeed I cannot say or even start to speculate......... my believe in The Cat is getting shaky over his silence.....

[binaryFate]

Reading concerns here, even I forget how incredibly transparent AM his. We get dividends EACH week, from mining addresses we can follow day by day, we can estimate hash rate too, day by day, and we can have a rather precise idea of the sells going on. What remains unknown then? Well, a lot about future investments (and still we know some numbers), but I'm happy not knowing this info because it also means competitors don't know it either.

FC gave us 3 updates over the last 3 months. Nothing has changed recently, he did not became silent all of sudden, but before nobody was caring so much about that. Everybody's freaking out now because of share price, but from friedcat perspective, he will probably keep running his business the same way, no matter how loud the begs for more info are.

There are two antagonist approaches: (i) full trust in FC and co, and (ii) large quantity of info in our own hands. Actual trade-off can be put everywhere between the two extremes.
My point is, I haven't seen the AM trade-off changing lately. Pression to move towards more info makes sense from the shareholder point of view, not really the company one.

[stripykitteh]

Pression to move towards more info makes sense from the shareholder point of view, not really the company one.

Yes, I agree.

When the company's dividends and share price tanks the way this has over the last couple of months I'd say it's foolish to be satisfied with near-silence from management, unless an investor is happy to ride the price all the way to the bottom for some reason. OK, if you own thousands of shares you are not going to be able to liquidate that volume of stock easily (except perhaps off-market) but those early investors have seen a massive return on their investment already and can afford to take a long-term view. Little guys who bought in over the last few months and have held because they 'trust friedcat' have been shafted, not because friedcat is untrustworthy per se, but because it's not his job to look after them. He is running a business to the best of his ability, I am sure, but that doesn't mean that latecomers are not going to not take a bath if they buy and hold while the share price plummets.

[BitAddict]

People seem to be missing hardware sales. It looks like AsicMiner chose to sell instead of mine for pretty much everything they are producing. Given the prices, it looks like the most profitable thing to do. (Already mentioned a few pages before.)

I still think financials aren't hard, like once a month. Total mined, total sold, what is kept for reinvestment.

I totally agree with that. At this point is better to sell all hardware. Take all the money now and start reinvesting in gen2, also they will probably get more profit than just mining.

The question is how fast are they going to start selling/mining with gen2, because the first takes all the market.

[mechs]

People seem to be missing hardware sales. It looks like AsicMiner chose to sell instead of mine for pretty much everything they are producing. Given the prices, it looks like the most profitable thing to do. (Already mentioned a few pages before.)

I still think financials aren't hard, like once a month. Total mined, total sold, what is kept for reinvestment.

I totally agree with that. At this point is better to sell all hardware. Take all the money now and start reinvesting in gen2, also they will probably get more profit than just mining.

The question is how fast are they going to start selling/mining with gen2, because the first takes all the market.

Also, franchising makes little sense anymore.  AM is no longer in any danger of taking over a majority of the network (though Ghash.io and BTCGuild are another matter).

A sensible strategy would be to mine with all gen 2 produced until it is breakeven between mining and selling.  Then at that point sell gen 2 and work on gen 3.

[ThickAsThieves]

People seem to be missing hardware sales. It looks like AsicMiner chose to sell instead of mine for pretty much everything they are producing. Given the prices, it looks like the most profitable thing to do. (Already mentioned a few pages before.)

I still think financials aren't hard, like once a month. Total mined, total sold, what is kept for reinvestment.

I totally agree with that. At this point is better to sell all hardware. Take all the money now and start reinvesting in gen2, also they will probably get more profit than just mining.

The question is how fast are they going to start selling/mining with gen2, because the first takes all the market.

Also, franchising makes little sense anymore.  AM is no longer in any danger of taking over a majority of the network (though Ghash.io and BTCGuild are another matter).

A sensible strategy would be to mine with all gen 2 produced until it is breakeven between mining and selling.  Then at that point sell gen 2 and work on gen 3.

Franchising was not conceived to avoid having 51%. That's not the point of it.

[User705]

Don't discount insider trading possibilities.  You'd think gen2 would be announced by now but they may be delaying the announcement while scooping up cheaper shares.

[mechs]

Don't discount insider trading possibilities.  You'd think gen2 would be announced by now but they may be delaying the announcement while scooping up cheaper shares.

Definitely possible and that will be what people will cry about who sold out in panic if it bounces back hard after an announcement

[mechs]

People seem to be missing hardware sales. It looks like AsicMiner chose to sell instead of mine for pretty much everything they are producing. Given the prices, it looks like the most profitable thing to do. (Already mentioned a few pages before.)

I still think financials aren't hard, like once a month. Total mined, total sold, what is kept for reinvestment.

I totally agree with that. At this point is better to sell all hardware. Take all the money now and start reinvesting in gen2, also they will probably get more profit than just mining.

The question is how fast are they going to start selling/mining with gen2, because the first takes all the market.

Also, franchising makes little sense anymore.  AM is no longer in any danger of taking over a majority of the network (though Ghash.io and BTCGuild are another matter).

A sensible strategy would be to mine with all gen 2 produced until it is breakeven between mining and selling.  Then at that point sell gen 2 and work on gen 3.

Franchising was not conceived to avoid having 51%. That's not the point of it.

What the point of it then?  What does it succeed that neither mining themselves or outright selling them does not?

[lophie]

People seem to be missing hardware sales. It looks like AsicMiner chose to sell instead of mine for pretty much everything they are producing. Given the prices, it looks like the most profitable thing to do. (Already mentioned a few pages before.)

I still think financials aren't hard, like once a month. Total mined, total sold, what is kept for reinvestment.

I totally agree with that. At this point is better to sell all hardware. Take all the money now and start reinvesting in gen2, also they will probably get more profit than just mining.

The question is how fast are they going to start selling/mining with gen2, because the first takes all the market.

Also, franchising makes little sense anymore.  AM is no longer in any danger of taking over a majority of the network (though Ghash.io and BTCGuild are another matter).

A sensible strategy would be to mine with all gen 2 produced until it is breakeven between mining and selling.  Then at that point sell gen 2 and work on gen 3.

Franchising was not conceived to avoid having 51%. That's not the point of it.

What the point of it then?  What does it succeed that neither mining themselves or outright selling them does not?

space and energy are not infinite even if you are willing to pay for it.

[shawshankinmate37927]

People seem to be missing hardware sales. It looks like AsicMiner chose to sell instead of mine for pretty much everything they are producing. Given the prices, it looks like the most profitable thing to do. (Already mentioned a few pages before.)

I still think financials aren't hard, like once a month. Total mined, total sold, what is kept for reinvestment.

I totally agree with that. At this point is better to sell all hardware. Take all the money now and start reinvesting in gen2, also they will probably get more profit than just mining.

The question is how fast are they going to start selling/mining with gen2, because the first takes all the market.

I also agree that it's better to sell gen1 hardware.  I'm amazed that there are suckers out there that are still willing to buy gen1 hardware.  In the near future, ASIC gen1 mining is going to be as fruitless as CPU or GPU mining is now.  Especially if some of the BTC price action predictions become reality.  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285252.msg3051951#msg3051951)

Am I the only one that thinks AM should consider abandoning hardware sales altogether once they have gen2 mining hardware in hand and stick to self mining and franchising/leasing?  The idea being that AM set up multiple mining farms in bitcoin friendly jurisdictions around the world (hopefully with cheap electricity).  Those that want mining income can then buy shares instead of hardware.  That way your investment buys a fixed percentage of AM's profits rather than a fixed hash rate offered by a piece of equipment.

[Rebelution]

People seem to be missing hardware sales. It looks like AsicMiner chose to sell instead of mine for pretty much everything they are producing. Given the prices, it looks like the most profitable thing to do. (Already mentioned a few pages before.)

I still think financials aren't hard, like once a month. Total mined, total sold, what is kept for reinvestment.

I totally agree with that. At this point is better to sell all hardware. Take all the money now and start reinvesting in gen2, also they will probably get more profit than just mining.

The question is how fast are they going to start selling/mining with gen2, because the first takes all the market.

I also agree that it's better to sell gen1 hardware.  I'm amazed that there are suckers out there that are still willing to buy gen1 hardware.  In the near future, ASIC gen1 mining is going to be as fruitless as CPU or GPU mining is now.  Especially if some of the BTC price action predictions become reality.  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285252.msg3051951#msg3051951)

Am I the only one that thinks AM should consider abandoning hardware sales altogether once they have gen2 mining hardware in hand and stick to self mining and franchising/leasing?  The idea being that AM set up multiple mining farms in bitcoin friendly jurisdictions around the world (hopefully with cheap electricity).  Those that want mining income can then buy shares instead of hardware.  That way your investment buys a fixed percentage of AM's profits rather than a fixed hash rate offered by a piece of equipment.

I don't think your post makes much sense.

Theme of first part:  It is amazing that people will pay so much for ASIC miners.
Idea in second part:  Next generation we should not sell ASIC miners.

I understand that you think that gen 2 will initially more profitable than currently mining with gen 1.  But if people are willing to overpay now for ASIC hardware, it is also likely that they will overpay for gen 2.

[shawshankinmate37927]

I also agree that it's better to sell gen1 hardware.  I'm amazed that there are suckers out there that are still willing to buy gen1 hardware.  In the near future, ASIC gen1 mining is going to be as fruitless as CPU or GPU mining is now.  Especially if some of the BTC price action predictions become reality.  (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=285252.msg3051951#msg3051951)

Am I the only one that thinks AM should consider abandoning hardware sales altogether once they have gen2 mining hardware in hand and stick to self mining and franchising/leasing?  The idea being that AM set up multiple mining farms in bitcoin friendly jurisdictions around the world (hopefully with cheap electricity).  Those that want mining income can then buy shares instead of hardware.  That way your investment buys a fixed percentage of AM's profits rather than a fixed hash rate offered by a piece of equipment.

I don't think your post makes much sense.

Theme of first part:  It is amazing that people will pay so much for ASIC miners.
Idea in second part:  Next generation we should not sell ASIC miners.

I understand that you think that gen 2 will initially more profitable than currently mining with gen 1.  But if people are willing to overpay now for ASIC hardware, it is also likely that they will overpay for gen 2.

I'm assuming that those who have overpaid for gen1 or seen others overpay for gen1 are going to be less willing to do so again.  However, like PT Barnum once said.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There's_a_sucker_born_every_minute

I just think more folks that are seeking long-term income will conclude it's a better idea to buy a percentage of the profits generated by AM's hash rate than to buy a piece of AM hardware with a fixed hash rate.

[EskimoBob]

...
Does this count?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2788821#msg2788821

Edit: If he plans to update quarterly, you should have updated numbers in about a month.

Yes and thank you.
So we are trading now below July 2013 book value?
Have expenses gone up dramatically, income form mining dropped like a rock and sales dried up in 2 months?
Everything changes way too fast around here and this is why quarterly reports just do not work in BTC land

[ASICSRUS]

(_!_capthcha)~TRANS FRIEDCAT?   LOL!
 -v\/v-