HashFast announces specs for new ASIC: 400GH/s

[pmorici]

The FTC mail order rule has been discussed over and over in many a BFL thread.  Not sure why people can't seem to understand simple, old consumer protection laws.  When you buy a fucking product the company can not hold your money for ransom, if you change your mind for any reason prior to a product physically being shipped to you, you have the right to cancel it no matter what their retarded ToS says.  Now as I mentioned what your rights are and what the company does are not always the same.  If they refuse your only option is to force them with the legal system (ie. retaining personal legal counsel for advice and or action or going to  the FTC, State AG's etc)

Putting something in your ToS that is contrary to federal regulations will not alleviate the company from complying with those federal regulations.  A companies ToS does not override federal regulations LDO.

When You Must Cancel an Order

You must cancel an order and provide a prompt refund when:
•the customer exercises any option to cancel before you ship the merchandise;
•the customer does not respond to your first notice of a definite revised shipment date of 30 days or less and you have not shipped the merchandise or received the customer’s consent to a further delay by the definite revised shipment date;
•the customer does not respond to your notice of a definite revised shipment date of more than 30 days (or your notice that you are unable to provide a definite revised shipment date) and you have not shipped the merchandise within 30 days of the original shipment date;
•the customer consents to a definite delay and you have not shipped or obtained the customer’s consent to any additional delay by the shipment time the customer consented to;
•you have not shipped or provided the required delay or renewed option notices on time; or
•you determine that you will never be able to ship the merchandise.


http://business.ftc.gov/documents/bus02-business-guide-mail-and-telephone-order-merchandise-rule

The actual FTC regulation underlying the above summary from the FTC website is Title 16 CFR 435. Section 2 of part 435 covers when a company must give refunds for delays.

[Dexter770221]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

[pmorici]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

For anyone interested there is a Google Docs Spreadsheet with historical difficult information here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiFMBvXvL2dtdEZkR2J4eU5rS3B4ei1iUmJxSWNlQ0E#gid=0

The 300% increase occurred in 2010 the same period MtGox started trading.  Higher than average difficulty increases seem to correspond with spikes in the price.

[Bogart]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

For anyone interested there is a Google Docs Spreadsheet with historical difficult information here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiFMBvXvL2dtdEZkR2J4eU5rS3B4ei1iUmJxSWNlQ0E#gid=0

The 300% increase occurred in 2010 the same period MtGox started trading.  Higher than average difficulty increases seem to correspond with spikes in the price.

Fun fact: +300% (a quadrupling) is the maximum difficulty adjustment possible. This is enforced by the bitcoin protocol.

[Gyrsur]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

For anyone interested there is a Google Docs Spreadsheet with historical difficult information here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiFMBvXvL2dtdEZkR2J4eU5rS3B4ei1iUmJxSWNlQ0E#gid=0

The 300% increase occurred in 2010 the same period MtGox started trading.  Higher than average difficulty increases seem to correspond with spikes in the price.

Fun fact: +300% (a quadrupling) is the maximum difficulty adjustment possible. This is enforced by the bitcoin protocol.

+400% is the max at once  I read somewhere a while ago.

EDIT:

A single retarget never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target

[tacotime]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

For anyone interested there is a Google Docs Spreadsheet with historical difficult information here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiFMBvXvL2dtdEZkR2J4eU5rS3B4ei1iUmJxSWNlQ0E#gid=0

The 300% increase occurred in 2010 the same period MtGox started trading.  Higher than average difficulty increases seem to correspond with spikes in the price.

Fun fact: +300% (a quadrupling) is the maximum difficulty adjustment possible. This is enforced by the bitcoin protocol.

+400% is the max at once  I read somewhere a while ago.

Yup, it's in the source code.

[pmorici]

In other words you are saying that those miners won't roi even in USD regardless of the 10x value increase of the BTC. I stopped doing my projection out of despair, but maybe i should start again after this news for me.

Am I missing something?

New Network Hash Rate = 5.2
Old Network Hash Rate = 4.2

Only 1Ph/s was added over the last 2 weeks. If 1Ph/s is added every 2 weeks and Hashfast delivers on Jan 31 we'll be at a network hash rate of around 9Ph/s. At these rates a unit will generate 0.16BTC per day. It will generate around 11.5BTC in 3 months. Assuming it takes another 3 months after the initial delivery to get the MPP; We will be looking at having a network hash rate of around 17Ph/s in April 31 when they're delivered. As long as they can start mining right away, It will be around 40BTC generated in the next 12 months totaling 51.5BTC which is right around what a lot of people paid(though, I paid 61BTC). If they deliver in december they will all definitely pay for themselves in BTC over the next 12 months.

I think the flaw in the btc calculations stems from people using a monthly doubling of hash rate. That sort of growth is not going to be possible with asics (there will be no sharp curve as with gpus). It takes time to produce them all. In order to calculate hash rate growth you need to know how many chips each manufacturer is producing per month. Those figures will be flat/static as they can't really increase their order over what is already scheduled at the foundry. It's not going to continue growing at these 100% per month rates any longer unless multiple asic suppliers all ship at once.

I will say, I do not appreciate the obvious lies as mentioned in previous posts from Hashfast. For an October delivery date they would have needed the PCBs done long before then. They knew going into it that they would never meet the October deadline. For them to save their honor in my eyes they would need to deliver all 2THs in the form of 1 double baby jet and 1 sierra in december or january. It would be possible to make a decent BTC profit if they were to do this and I would be willing to let it slide. 2TH delivered on or before Jan 9 would make roughly 66.53BTC over the next 4 months which will hit the break even of the btc value for almost everyone, myself included. Anything from there on would be profit.

Can you be a little more specific about what math you are using to arrive at this conclusion?  I feel like you are assuming the difficulty increases will level out to the point of being negligible.  I don't think that is a reasonable assumption.  Why can fabs produce enough GPU's to sustain a 20-30% increase in hash rate per window but not be able to produce enough ASICS to do the same?

The difficulty increases will level out unless more chips are generated than the month before. Like lets take an example and say that a vendor has a schedule setup for 2Ph/s worth of chips every 2 months foro the next 1-2 years. They can't change that easily, they might be able to get an extra run here or there if they're lucky, but the schedule exists so the foundry always stays active. The chances that they will be able to produce more than they were scheduled for (and these schedules are 12 months + in advance) are negligible.

The reason there was a huge spike when gpu mining occured is that anyone could order 50 video cards off newegg, or from their local walmart or wherever and have them online and mining in days or HOURS. The video cards were already there, available, and just needed to be shipped / installed.

I would suspect most of these vendors are only going to be producing around 1-2Ph/s a month of chips. If there are 5 vendors producing chips, expect 5-10Ph/s a month added. Currently there are 4 that represent 2Ph/s a month of growth (avalon, knc, bfl and bitfury). As a result of this you can get 100% growth periods, but only for very short spans. If the network hash rate is 10Ph/s and these manuf bring 10Ph/s online in a month it will be 100% growth rate. But, The next month when they bring another 10Ph/s online it will only be a 50% growth rate, the third month, 33%, and so on down into single digit percentages.

-- edited to correct my maths

In any case this still represents the best possible scenario.  I also wouldn't be surprised if people found a way to get extra fab capacity dedicated to the task now that the price of BTC is sky high and nobody knows how many private groups are out there developing their own chips and not selling them to the public. 

[amer]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

Argh, I was too lazy to go back before August 2011. Thanks for the correction!

+400% is the max at once  I read somewhere a while ago.

EDIT:

A single retarget never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target

Factor of 4 = +300%

[Gyrsur]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

Argh, I was too lazy to go back before August 2011. Thanks for the correction!

+400% is the max at once  I read somewhere a while ago.

EDIT:

A single retarget never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target

Factor of 4 = +300%

100% multiplied by 4 = 400%  

[amer]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

Argh, I was too lazy to go back before August 2011. Thanks for the correction!

+400% is the max at once  I read somewhere a while ago.

EDIT:

A single retarget never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target

Factor of 4 = +300%

100% multiplied by 4 = 400%  

Yes, the plus sign has meaning.
Starting with $10
$10 = +0%
$20 = +100%
$30 = +200%
$40 = +300%

[opentoe]

I skip right over the messages that talk about difficulty and all that. Because I know one day it will all be over and I'll sadly have to shut my miner off.

 

[Gyrsur]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

Argh, I was too lazy to go back before August 2011. Thanks for the correction!

+400% is the max at once  I read somewhere a while ago.

EDIT:

A single retarget never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target

Factor of 4 = +300%

100% multiplied by 4 = 400%  

Yes, the plus sign has meaning.
Starting with $10
$10 = +0%
$20 = +100%
$30 = +200%
$40 = +300%

excuse me not to attack you personal but to correct bad math:

40 / 4.00 = 10 which is not equal 40 / 3.00 = 13.33333333

[gnar1ta$]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

Argh, I was too lazy to go back before August 2011. Thanks for the correction!

+400% is the max at once  I read somewhere a while ago.

EDIT:

A single retarget never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target

Factor of 4 = +300%

100% multiplied by 4 = 400%  

Yes, the plus sign has meaning.
Starting with $10
$10 = +0%
$20 = +100%
$30 = +200%
$40 = +300%

excuse me not to attack you personal but to correct bad math:

40 / 4.00 = 10 which is not equal 40 / 3.00 = 13.33333333

+300% = GAIN of 300%
$10 to $40 is a $30 GAIN or +300% from the original $10, even though $40 is 4x $10

Now can we please get back to mining with our baby jets trolling...
 

[minternj]

Agree - how's dem dere substrates doing? Did the Australian team with 8 billion years of asic experience sort it out yet? Or maybe another 2 weeks™?

[Visesrion]

Just received directly from John. It's still hot  



Boards should come this next week, so lets hope we see a Babyjet running soon  

[DPoS]

that chip looks like its made of felt with stencil cutout

[Kouye]

The sad part? I'm not even excited over this. Yawn.

Maybe because you remember how much time flew by between the first BFL chip picture and the first delivered customer?

[Paladin69]

..... (the highest ever was +46%)

300%

For anyone interested there is a Google Docs Spreadsheet with historical difficult information here...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiFMBvXvL2dtdEZkR2J4eU5rS3B4ei1iUmJxSWNlQ0E#gid=0

The 300% increase occurred in 2010 the same period MtGox started trading.  Higher than average difficulty increases seem to correspond with spikes in the price.

Fun fact: +300% (a quadrupling) is the maximum difficulty adjustment possible. This is enforced by the bitcoin protocol.

+400% is the max at once  I read somewhere a while ago.

EDIT:

A single retarget never changes the target by more than a factor of 4 either way to prevent large changes in difficulty.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target

They should lower the max adjustment by a lot.  It would help the common man out because the ASIC developers are in full control right now.  With the exploding difficulty, scams, non-refunds, crappy RMA service, constant engineering fuck ups, competition and no self control on machines sales, it is going to make the diff run away from everyone unless these adjustments calm down.  Unless people don't mind the next 9m in coins going to powerful individuals with geopolitical influence.  Groups of people we don't like running the current monetary system now having lots of cloud mining networks disturbs me a bit.

[Visesrion]

I also asked John about the delivery times of the next batches and upgrade chips and he has told me that they are going be shipped in order of payment. He told me that at full production they are limited by 700 boards per day
Lets hope boards come up next week and we could see units shipping soon. If they produce 700 units a day they will clear the shipping queue really fast

We all know that they are really late and what they have been doing about the shipping dates and Tos is not something we will forget so easy. I would say it's pretty dificult to reach the 700 units in a day production in a short period of time, but lets hope Ciara do its job. There is nothing more we could do also  

[amer]

I also asked John about the delivery times of the next batches and upgrade chips and he has told me that they are going be shipped in order of payment. He told me that at full production they are limited by 700 boards per day
Lets hope boards come up next week and we could see units shipping soon. If they produce 700 units a day they will clear the shipping queue really fast

We all know that they are really late and what they have been doing about the shipping dates and Tos is not something we will forget so easy. I would say it's pretty dificult to reach the 700 units in a day production in a short period of time, but lets hope Ciara do its job. There is nothing more we could do also  

Cautiously optimistic..