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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919422 times)
Afrikoin
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October 16, 2015, 08:32:48 PM
 #3861

Could we be on the upswing of the second shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern spanning most of 2015?

First shoulder peaked at about $300 in early March 2015.

Head peaked at about $312 in July 2015.

Expectation of peak of second shoulder at around $300 in November.


[reading investopedia ...]

Or perhaps an inverse head and shoulders marking the reversal of the downtrend from $1200.

Shoulder #1 trough either $170 in january 2015, or $212 in February.

Head trough around $220 somewhere in april-may-june.

Shoulder #2 trough in the 190s in august.

Either way we would be on target for about $300 in another month or so. If an inverse head and shoulders, then we begin the trip to da moon.

EDIT: By the above inverse head and shoulders interpretation, the head would be smaller than the shoulders which I know is not how it's supposed to be. But not every pattern is a perfect pattern, right?


Explain using charts.



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masterluc
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October 16, 2015, 08:52:55 PM
 #3862

This? H&S? No.



Joerii
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October 17, 2015, 06:59:59 AM
 #3863

But not every pattern is a perfect pattern, right?

The funny thing about TA is you can find a pattern to match any idea, if you just look for imperfect patterns Smiley And to make matters worse, you can find multiple patterns that conflict each other. I find that the only patterns that are worth a LOT are the ones everyone agrees on. Because then they become self fulfilling prophecies.

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Afrikoin
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October 17, 2015, 09:22:36 AM
 #3864

But not every pattern is a perfect pattern, right?

The funny thing about TA is you can find a pattern to match any idea, if you just look for imperfect patterns Smiley And to make matters worse, you can find multiple patterns that conflict each other. I find that the only patterns that are worth a LOT are the ones everyone agrees on. Because then they become self fulfilling prophecies.

not always.

Recall the cup and handle pattern from couple of months ago.




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masterluc
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October 17, 2015, 10:05:22 AM
 #3865

Figures may trigger and may fail, but triangle is not a circle anyway.

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October 17, 2015, 01:24:18 PM
 #3866

I tried to find out more about the MMM ponzi that is supposed to fuel the current uptrend (and I count as a fundamental).
It has been running for years, including accepting bitcoin for over 3 years, so I'm not convinced it is so important.
Supposedly in South Africa it has been running wild lately, but Google trends don't show a large rise for bitcoin in SA.
And it doesn't explain the huge buys in China, if bitcoins would be bought in SA, I would expect to be sold in other countries.
So, if someone has a better explanation for the renewed Chinese appetite, please post it.
The question is how long will this ponzi / renewed Chinese demand go on, with major medium term consequences on the price.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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October 17, 2015, 01:40:11 PM
 #3867

I tried to find out more about the MMM ponzi that is supposed to fuel the current uptrend (and I count as a fundamental).
It has been running for years, including accepting bitcoin for over 3 years, so I'm not convinced it is so important.
Supposedly in South Africa it has been running wild lately, but Google trends don't show a large rise for bitcoin in SA.
And it doesn't explain the huge buys in China, if bitcoins would be bought in SA, I would expect to be sold in other countries.
So, if someone has a better explanation for the renewed Chinese appetite, please post it.
The question is how long will this ponzi / renewed Chinese demand go on, with major medium term consequences on the price.
occams razor
What's wrong with this simply being a pump, and this on Huoubi has the advantage that it can be made look huge by buying and selling the same coins several times without additional costs. Volume on exchanges with trading fees hasn't spiked, soo.

Also the run-up looks natural, albeit a little smooth (not enough oscillations). My guess this is a genuine spike, just the volume has been artificially inflated by people who want to make it look like it counts.
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October 17, 2015, 02:06:20 PM
 #3868

I'm a bit worried because RSI is in highly in overbought area. It is close to overbought even on daily. So maybe a small correction could be in place?

I'd better worry about daily adx at 60. ADX > 50 usually hints about coming local top or bottom. However adx may rise much more than 50.


lebing
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October 17, 2015, 02:35:02 PM
 #3869

starting to look bubbly.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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October 17, 2015, 02:43:19 PM
 #3870

starting to look bubbly.

you ain't seen nothing yet Wink

I'm waiting for a sizable correction in the meantime, though (since ~ 2 days ago, actually). 200 hour MA (blue in my chart) could be a target (~$252). Incidentally that's pretty close to the lower uptrend line (gray in my chart, currently at ~$248).



On the other hand: who knows what's up in China... this thing might have more legs.

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BTCtrader71
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October 17, 2015, 03:27:26 PM
 #3871

Here's what I mean by inverse head and shoulders:



I'm not disagreeing with the master, just wanted a better visualization of what I was thinking.



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masterluc
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October 17, 2015, 04:45:20 PM
 #3872

This is also not a duck

ElectricMucus
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October 17, 2015, 05:44:16 PM
 #3873

Here's what I mean by inverse head and shoulders:



I'm not disagreeing with the master, just wanted a better visualization of what I was thinking.




If that is a reverse h&s the person it shows must have some sort of physical condition. (or is wearing a padded suit)
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October 17, 2015, 05:58:34 PM
 #3874

If that is a reverse h&s the person it shows must have some sort of physical condition. (or is wearing a padded suit)

If you were hanging upside down you might be happy to be wearing a padded suit! lol



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Fatman3001
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October 17, 2015, 06:20:13 PM
 #3875

If that is a reverse h&s the person it shows must have some sort of physical condition. (or is wearing a padded suit)

If you were hanging upside down you might be happy to be wearing a padded suit! lol




The signs are there if you know to look for them.


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BTCtrader71
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October 17, 2015, 06:37:48 PM
 #3876

If that is a reverse h&s the person it shows must have some sort of physical condition. (or is wearing a padded suit)

If you were hanging upside down you might be happy to be wearing a padded suit! lol




The signs are there if you know to look for them.



Now THAT's what I call a padded suit!! Wink


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smoothie
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October 18, 2015, 11:15:04 AM
 #3877

Here's what I mean by inverse head and shoulders:



I'm not disagreeing with the master, just wanted a better visualization of what I was thinking.




that's a pretty messed up head and shoulders pattern.

Not saying the price can't go up above that resistance level but damn...that head and that shoulder on the left looks like a hunch back. Cheesy

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RyNinDaCleM
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October 18, 2015, 09:01:06 PM
 #3878

Here's what I mean by inverse head and shoulders:



I'm not disagreeing with the master, just wanted a better visualization of what I was thinking.




that's a pretty messed up head and shoulders pattern.

Not saying the price can't go up above that resistance level but damn...that head and that shoulder on the left looks like a hunch back. Cheesy

Psst...
The head should be the lowest point of the pattern or it's just HH's and HL's (ie. a corrective trend)

That is more aimed at the people who are all behind this being a potential pattern. Not so much for smoothie

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October 18, 2015, 09:53:46 PM
 #3879

I'm a bit worried because RSI is in highly in overbought area. It is close to overbought even on daily. So maybe a small correction could be in place?

I'd better worry about daily adx at 60. ADX > 50 usually hints about coming local top or bottom. However adx may rise much more than 50.



Indicators which showed overbought situation were right again. 4h RSI is now back down to 50 and we didn't break Fib 61.8% (around 260$)... New ride up or?

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RyNinDaCleM
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October 18, 2015, 09:57:02 PM
 #3880

I'm a bit worried because RSI is in highly in overbought area. It is close to overbought even on daily. So maybe a small correction could be in place?

I'd better worry about daily adx at 60. ADX > 50 usually hints about coming local top or bottom. However adx may rise much more than 50.



Indicators which showed overbought situation were right again. 4h RSI is now back down to 50 and we didn't break Fib 61.8% (around 260$)... New ride up or?

Good chance we take a stab at 260, then more up.
This looks like a 4 on my indicators

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