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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939295 times)
realdos
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May 10, 2015, 10:37:06 PM
 #2841

Downtrend is comming, 290 is upper line hard resistance now (I wrote 300+ some time ago).

I couldn't help but notice that 290 is also near the weekly upper BB. Will you call it a bottom if the price collapses into weekly 20 sma again after it hit 290, as you said in the previous post?

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I will recognize significant bottom at the following conditions.
1. Price will hit the weekly upper BB and then collapse into weekly 20 sma.
2. oh well, nothing more ))
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masterluc
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May 11, 2015, 12:19:30 AM
 #2842

Downtrend is comming, 290 is upper line hard resistance now (I wrote 300+ some time ago).

I couldn't help but notice that 290 is also near the weekly upper BB. Will you call it a bottom if the price collapses into weekly 20 sma again after it hit 290, as you said in the previous post?

Quote
I will recognize significant bottom at the following conditions.
1. Price will hit the weekly upper BB and then collapse into weekly 20 sma.
2. oh well, nothing more ))

One more condition - blow up long term log trend line.

But in my opinion, there should be a long silence period after week upper bb hit + collapse to weekly 20 sma.

realdos
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May 11, 2015, 03:20:07 AM
 #2843


One more condition - blow up long term log trend line.

But in my opinion, there should be a long silence period after week upper bb hit + collapse to weekly 20 sma.

You mean a bottom could be recognized after 1) week upper bb hit; 2) blow up long term log trend line and 3) collapse to weekly 20 sma ?
After the above three conditions met, there should be a long silence period before the next price soaring.
Is my understanding correct?
masterluc
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May 11, 2015, 08:05:45 AM
 #2844

No

darlidada
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May 11, 2015, 11:58:50 AM
 #2845

was watching the empire strike back yesterday and just realized that your nickname might come from C3PO calling luke skywalker "master luke"
maxll
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May 11, 2015, 06:42:52 PM
 #2846

Call him just Lucif.
realdos
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May 14, 2015, 02:39:07 PM
 #2847

stop raised to 229 (trend line), sell 50% now imho

Given the trend these days, is it still likely that the price will reach 290 in the near future? Or a coming plummet is expected?
masterluc
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May 14, 2015, 02:54:34 PM
 #2848

I said, its a quite risky bullish scenario.

The long term log trendline resides now at around 290 and falling



The current bullish escape channel and progress is here. But be warned - it looks like bearish wedge so far (but may blow up and form 2nd green channel). I'd keep stop order for bullish position right below bottom green line.



Also I dont like continous hidden bearish divergences



BitcoinNewsMagazine
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May 14, 2015, 03:24:46 PM
 #2849

masterluc how do you feel about DanV analysis calling for completion of eight wave cycle at $90 - $110?

masterluc
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May 14, 2015, 03:35:10 PM
 #2850

masterluc how do you feel about DanV analysis calling for completion of eight wave cycle at $90 - $110?

The empty space down to bottom long term log trend line suggests some shit like this may happen.

realdos
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May 14, 2015, 09:35:28 PM
 #2851

I said, its a quite risky bullish scenario.

The long term log trendline resides now at around 290 and falling



The current bullish escape channel and progress is here. But be warned - it looks like bearish wedge so far (but may blow up and form 2nd green channel). I'd keep stop order for bullish position right below bottom green line.



Also I dont like continous hidden bearish divergences




Did the plummet to 232.22 just hit your stop order?
masterluc
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May 14, 2015, 09:57:54 PM
 #2852

definately

realdos
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May 15, 2015, 12:09:13 AM
 #2853

definately

Guess what we could do now is just sit and wait until we've better idea of how it is going to develop?
Bicmac1973
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May 15, 2015, 03:18:42 AM
 #2854

Hehe, I am a noob trader. I was on the road and once back home I found my stop order triggered, too. I started to feel bad, but now I know that I am in very good society. On the other hand I have lost 25% of my balance in the last 2 weeks. I think I should feel bad anyways.
Nonetheless, thanks to masterluc. Without his predictions (besides chessnut, Ryn, Tzupy etc.) I would never had an opportunity to earn the money I have lost now in the first place.

TL:DR: I am drunken and I love you all.

signatures lie!
realdos
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May 15, 2015, 02:56:53 PM
 #2855

Hehe, I am a noob trader. I was on the road and once back home I found my stop order triggered, too. I started to feel bad, but now I know that I am in very good society. On the other hand I have lost 25% of my balance in the last 2 weeks. I think I should feel bad anyways.
Nonetheless, thanks to masterluc. Without his predictions (besides chessnut, Ryn, Tzupy etc.) I would never had an opportunity to earn the money I have lost now in the first place.

TL:DR: I am drunken and I love you all.

Stop may not be a good tool in Bitcoin world..
masterluc
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May 16, 2015, 12:40:47 PM
 #2856

TL:DR: I am drunken and I love you all.
Dont even think to trade when drunk. Hands off trading terminal.

However I bought a car and appartments due such traders  Grin

masterluc
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May 16, 2015, 12:42:05 PM
 #2857

So looks like wedge is triggering



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May 16, 2015, 02:21:41 PM
 #2858

TL:DR: I am drunken and I love you all.
Dont even think to trade when drunk. Hands off trading terminal.

However I bought a car and appartments due such traders  Grin

We need bad traders and drunk traders so we could take their money.
Fatman3001
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May 17, 2015, 07:49:46 PM
 #2859

TL:DR: I am drunken and I love you all.
Dont even think to trade when drunk. Hands off trading terminal.

However I bought a car and appartments due such traders  Grin

We need bad traders and drunk traders so we could take their money.

And if they can't afford liquor any more then they will trade themselves back again. It's the circle of life.

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
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May 17, 2015, 09:23:01 PM
 #2860

masterluc how do you feel about DanV analysis calling for completion of eight wave cycle at $90 - $110?

The empty space down to bottom long term log trend line suggests some shit like this may happen.

I think the price of Bitcoin is related to macro but in a very specific and a bit disguised way. When the Dollar will plunge and the market will understand the US&EU financial crisis never stopped, we will experiment surging prices in Bitcoin.

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