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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 916396 times)
masterluc
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May 03, 2015, 04:51:37 PM
 #2841

I reconize current activity as long term counter trend corrective move.

I said earlier, there are a lot of resistances at 250-350 area.

This rally isn't safe enough, I see a potential to 290-320 so far. And it is risky.

i sent straight,check your addy !

Thanks.

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negafen
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May 03, 2015, 04:54:29 PM
 #2842

I reconize current activity as long term counter trend corrective move.

I said earlier, there are a lot of resistances at 250-350 area.

This rally isn't safe enough, I see a potential to 290-320 so far. And it is risky.

200 has proven to be a strong resistance line. Little risk with potential 50-60 dollars gain per coin if played right.
realdos
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May 05, 2015, 05:48:08 AM
 #2843

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Is it confirmed now as the 3-day bar is totally above the upper trendline?
hdbuck
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May 05, 2015, 06:08:03 AM
 #2844

another H&S forming?
realdos
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May 05, 2015, 07:34:20 PM
 #2845

another H&S forming?

How about the last H&S? Failed?
HeliKopterBen
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May 05, 2015, 11:04:47 PM
 #2846

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Is it confirmed now as the 3-day bar is totally above the upper trendline?

Depends on how you draw it and at what scale.  If the linear scale holds above 230 for the remainder of this weekly bar, then that trend can be considered broken, which IMO would only introduce uncertainty into the longer term trend.



close up:



For more certainty, the log trend line should be broken in the same manner... and a solid weekly bar above 315 would help to indicate a trend change:


Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
realdos
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May 07, 2015, 01:27:07 AM
 #2847

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Is it confirmed now as the 3-day bar is totally above the upper trendline?

Depends on how you draw it and at what scale.  If the linear scale holds above 230 for the remainder of this weekly bar, then that trend can be considered broken, which IMO would only introduce uncertainty into the longer term trend.



close up:



For more certainty, the log trend line should be broken in the same manner... and a solid weekly bar above 315 would help to indicate a trend change:



230 broken. What now?
lay785
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May 07, 2015, 01:37:14 AM
 #2848

When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?

I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm.  That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.

Is it confirmed now as the 3-day bar is totally above the upper trendline?

Depends on how you draw it and at what scale.  If the linear scale holds above 230 for the remainder of this weekly bar, then that trend can be considered broken, which IMO would only introduce uncertainty into the longer term trend.



close up:



For more certainty, the log trend line should be broken in the same manner... and a solid weekly bar above 315 would help to indicate a trend change:



230 broken. What now?
buy lol
HeliKopterBen
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May 07, 2015, 02:26:52 AM
 #2849

230 broken. What now?

Wait... unless you want to short, which is also risky given that the market is down 80% from ATH.  Eventually that line will be broken.  Until then, the best thing to do is nothing IMO.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
realdos
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May 08, 2015, 05:26:34 PM
 #2850

230 broken. What now?

Wait... unless you want to short, which is also risky given that the market is down 80% from ATH.  Eventually that line will be broken.  Until then, the best thing to do is nothing IMO.

True, short was very risky as it now soars above 240..
lebing
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May 08, 2015, 05:58:46 PM
 #2851

230 broken. What now?

Wait... unless you want to short, which is also risky given that the market is down 80% from ATH.  Eventually that line will be broken.  Until then, the best thing to do is nothing IMO.

So you are saying that the price is going to be 5x what it is, but not to buy now?

Even if you buy only a small amount, that amount of coins will be worth much more than what you would get if you were to be buying market order once it passes the ATH. I cringe thinking thinking about the slippage on a market order once we pass that. Probably $100 slip heh.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
HeliKopterBen
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May 08, 2015, 06:07:05 PM
 #2852

230 broken. What now?

Wait... unless you want to short, which is also risky given that the market is down 80% from ATH.  Eventually that line will be broken.  Until then, the best thing to do is nothing IMO.

So you are saying that the price is going to be 5x what it is, but not to buy now?

Even if you buy only a small amount, that amount of coins will be worth much more than what you would get if you were to be buying market order once it passes the ATH. I cringe thinking thinking about the slippage on a market order once we pass that. Probably $100 slip heh.

That is not what I am saying at all.  Go back and review the discussion about trendlines.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
Okurkabinladin
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May 08, 2015, 06:16:51 PM
 #2853

Any ideas from MasterLuc? I am one ear.
masterluc
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May 10, 2015, 09:21:01 AM
 #2854

Downtrend is comming, 290 is upper line hard resistance now (I wrote 300+ some time ago).



Currently fighting with local linear escape trend line



masterluc
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May 10, 2015, 09:26:39 AM
 #2855

I worry adx doesn't recognize it as rally, while SS does and its overbought


vphen
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May 10, 2015, 09:28:24 AM
 #2856

another opportunity - long target 290 with s/l 220. risk/reward 1:3

is this still valid?
masterluc
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May 10, 2015, 09:36:50 AM
 #2857

stop raised to 229 (trend line), sell 50% now imho

vphen
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May 10, 2015, 09:51:30 AM
 #2858

stop raised to 229 (trend line), sell 50% now imho

got it. thank you.
inca
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May 10, 2015, 11:06:00 AM
 #2859

stop raised to 229 (trend line), sell 50% now imho

got it. thank you.

Ignore the short term technicals - they are manipulated heavily. The long term exponential trend line is all that matters. Everything else is noise. How many Elliot wave traders on this forum a) predicted the last bubble? b) earn their living trading? Smiley
phoenix1
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May 10, 2015, 11:26:52 AM
 #2860

stop raised to 229 (trend line), sell 50% now imho

got it. thank you.

Ignore the short term technicals - they are manipulated heavily. The long term exponential trend line is all that matters. Everything else is noise. How many Elliot wave traders on this forum a) predicted the last bubble? b) earn their living trading? Smiley

Bit rude coming into luc's house and talking like that. Especially from the man that has predicted 50 of the last 2 short squeezes  Roll Eyes
You are starting to sound a bit desperate inca

"Before you embark on a journey of revenge, dig two graves"  - Confucius (China 551BC-479 BC)
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