Analysis

[windjc]

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure.

Gold and silver have been in a bear market since their respective bubbles popped in 2011. Why should it be different for bitcoin?

I think your question is in a nutshell exactly why I think EW theory is not the be all and end all.

If you can't see the difference between Bitcoin and Gold/Silver then I do not know where to start. I don't mean to condescend, because we probably just fundamentally disagree, but the basic fact that bitcoin is a disruptive technology and the other two are established precious metals is only the beginning of their fundamental differences.

If bitcoin is in bear market for the next 2 years, I believe it will die.  For bitcoin to succeed it must follow more closely the growth curve of a new rising technology, not a commodity.

I'm sorry but all I see is the classic "but this time it's different" bubble pattern.

If bitcoin goes into a 2 year bear market then "this time it's different."  That has never happened before. It was in a bear market for a 1 1/2 after the 2011 crash when bitcoin had zero eco-system, zero non-dark companies accepting it, zero endorsement from anyone in the VC or financial arenas, and the list goes on and on and on.  

With bitcoin's short history, every "bubble" HAS been different.  Where was the long term bear market after April? All the way until June? Not much of a bear market. Bitcoin went up 150% in 2012 and 7000% in 2013.  Where is the "this time its the same?"

Bitcoin hasnt behaved like gold ever. But this time its different?

I just disagree fundamentally. But the fun part is, we will get to find out soon enough.

[Dragonkiller]

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

I feel exactly the same way as you. Short term going down makes sense. But a prolonged bear market does not.

I think sometime traders feel like the market is driven by traders. Just like investors think the market is driven by purists that will follow bitcoin to the end. I think it falls somewhere in the middle. But I just do not see how, barring worldwide economic collapse, that the prospects for bitcoin are not very bullish over the next 12 months. We are just now seeing the budding of a true eco-system. Up until now, bitcoin WAS a truly speculative vehicle.  So this rally/crash/depression scenario that has played out twice before - I am a little skeptical of now.

That doesn't mean we couldn't go lower to the 400s and snap out of it fairly quickly though. Although that might violate a wave, I'm not sure.

Gold and silver have been in a bear market since their respective bubbles popped in 2011. Why should it be different for bitcoin?

I think your question is in a nutshell exactly why I think EW theory is not the be all and end all.

If you can't see the difference between Bitcoin and Gold/Silver then I do not know where to start. I don't mean to condescend, because we probably just fundamentally disagree, but the basic fact that bitcoin is a disruptive technology and the other two are established precious metals is only the beginning of their fundamental differences.

If bitcoin is in bear market for the next 2 years, I believe it will die.  For bitcoin to succeed it must follow more closely the growth curve of a new rising technology, not a commodity.

I'm sorry but all I see is the classic "but this time it's different" bubble pattern.

If bitcoin goes into a 2 year bear market then "this time it's different."  That has never happened before. It was in a bear market for a 1 1/2 after the 2011 crash when bitcoin had zero eco-system, zero non-dark companies accepting it, zero endorsement from anyone in the VC or financial arenas, and the list goes on and on and on.  

With bitcoin's short history, every "bubble" HAS been different.  Where was the long term bear market after April? All the way until June? Not much of a bear market. Bitcoin went up 150% in 2012 and 7000% in 2013.  Where is the "this time its the same?"

Bitcoin hasnt behaved like gold ever. But this time its different?

I just disagree fundamentally. But the fun part is, we will get to find out soon enough.

Whilst I see the benefit in technical analysis, I don't think it's right to expect bitcoin to behave in the same way as gold. I think fundamentals make a big difference here; one is a new technology which more and more people are discovering everyday, the other is something that has been around for thousands of years. I would be very surprised if bitcoin goes into a prolonged bear market like gold, I think that will be almost impossible unless bitcoin dies.

[Wekkel]

We are breaking upside from the triangle. Balls of steel and all in 

[Odalv]

silly bears ... EW says  $400 :-) ... more than 260k btc dumped at gox, only 12k can be re-bought till $1200 ... who panic buy the first panic buy the best !!! :-)

[JustAnotherSheep]

I also see a pennant forming right now, which from what I've learned of traditional TA should mean we go down more. But then again for all I know it could mean trend reversal in the world of bitcoin

This bolded part was just a joke, but was it actually correct, or is this just a false breakout?

[rampantparanoia]

Its just a bitcoin sale.

[sumantso]

I also see a pennant forming right now, which from what I've learned of traditional TA should mean we go down more. But then again for all I know it could mean trend reversal in the world of bitcoin

This bolded part was just a joke, but was it actually correct, or is this just a false breakout?

Well, Wekkel 2 posts back capitulated. I say we wait for some more time to see if its a false breakout or not. Masterluc posted saying its a bearish pennant.

Anyways, if the doom and gloom sceneraio plays out we would all be laughing that we sold

[samurai1200]

edit: wrongo!

Price goes past $830-850 gox, look at triple bottom.
Price doesn't, look at triple top/wedge/weird head-n-shoulders.

The spirit of this (and the previous) thread used to be at longer term candles. But anyway...



so triangle + overbought RSI + low volume + china waking up paints a potential downtrend for next 24-48 hours for me. i'm sure i'll be eating my words later, because bitcoin.

[ElectricMucus]

Stop it with the triangle B.S.

[samurai1200]

Stop it with the triangle B.S.

I find triangles useful in short term charts.
You may ignore me if you wish.

[Equilux]

Stop it with the triangle B.S.

+1

You can see dozens of triangles/wedges in the last 6 weeks on many different scales, and in many different "trends" but there is no consistency on which way they will "break".

[Rampion]

waveaddict, thanks for observations. Actually main trading decisions were on patterns you pointed to.

No problem. I'll always defend a fellow talented TA & EWer
It's truly amazing how often I have to explain basic market concepts and recall basic information in the speculation forum. Trying to educate people of the practicality of EW is the hardest because so many people misunderstand and misuse it. It's one of those ideas/theories that takes weeks to somewhat understand but years to fully appreciate and profit from. Most just quickly learn about it, without fully understanding it, and then fail at it and subsequently blame the idea instead of their own shortcomings. Anything that is worth doing/learning isn't easy! Moreover, it's insulting to have some of these same people argue with and insult you on something they haven't taken the time to understand, especially when you are trying to help them out.

If everybody understood and followed EW it just wouldn't work. I'm sorry to state the obvious

[JWU90]

Love how when Lucif was predicting the bubble rise, nobody said a word. Now, when he was correct again at selling at the top while predicting a long bear market, everyone gets mad 

keep up the good work and ignore the haters.

[Rampion]

From my side, much respect to waveaddict and masterluc.

It's really amazing how big greed is on human nature, lots of people are expecting to see +1100 prices by next week after droping from 1200 to 550. Sorry guys but is not going to happend in a short time, not a single good inversor/trader is going to panic buy or going long right now until waters calms down, in a few weeks at least.

This is time to take profits, but much people are still in denial phase.

Yeah... This is kind of bullshit. I would suggest not to throw around big words like "denial" and "greed", because exactly the same arguments were thrown around each step along the way to 1200 from the April low. Sometimes they were appropriate, most of the time, they weren't, as evidenced by the 1200 ATH.

Note: I'm not saying I think we're back on track immediately to a new ATH. But we just saw a halving of the ATH, and some (moderate) signs for support above 600. So another halving event like the one masterluc expects is dubios in my opinion. Not impossible, but not the most likely scenario either.

Sorry but english is not my natural language, how should i call those emotions then? I was not saying this in a unrespectful way, and i don't want to offense anyone, of course not, i'm only calling names to emotions.

We are in a downtren, indicators says we are going down, this is not a normal correction don't you think?

(Sorry if I came across too aggressive)

It's clear we saw major correction, true. To be followed by another major correction (which is what lucif expects)? That would confirm we're probably going to see a longer lasting downtrend. But I'm not sure that'll happen... Come Monday, we're going down to 300? Are you sure about that? Because to me the market right now mainly looks the same way I feel: undecided. We're hovering precariously close to the 30d average (on all exchanges), the bottoms of the smaller waves since 576 are slowly rising, volume paints a pretty uncertain picture, order books across all 3 major exchanges are holding up quite nicely actually,... like I said, to me it looks like it could swing either way.

By the way, I wasn't against profit taking at all. I sold at 1000, and don't regret it for obvious reasons. the question is, have we seen the major part of this correction, or are we in for a long bear market.

No problem  

I'm not saying we are goint to 300 by monday. Same as you i see the market undecided. So as i see things, under in doubt better be sitting on fiat than BTC until one clearly sees market's direction.

I don't mind if i 'loss' a few BTCs on the way and have to repurchase at $1500 at a 'loss', but if i purchase now and there is another dip i will regret later lossing thousans of euros, and euros are valuable to me, not the bitcoins, and i think most traders think the same way.

This is why i was talking about greed and denial, trend is always your friend, and trend now is down. If you are now all in BTC is a high risk you take, maybe you can be good or it can turn against you.

Better be safe and follow the trend, don't you think? Buying now is quite risky, i want to play safe leaving emotions alone.

For some being all fiat is much riskier than being all BTC. Difficult to argue when BTC appreciated 7,000% in the last twelve months - we can't say the same thing on fiat. The "trend" is pretty clear especially if you zoom out.

That said, we all need fiat for most of our needs, thus taking profits is sensible and it needs to be done following a rational plan based on personal circumstances and personal needs. I wouldn't advise being "full fiat" though - or wouldn't you hold at least 10% of your stash for the very long term, no matter what?Even luc wrote he is holding 20% of his coins. I'm not surprised, 100% in or out is pure gambling and poor risk management.

[thefiniteidea]

[Ozymandias]

Looks like bitcoin continues to not give a shit about pennants

[cAPSLOCK]

Looks like bitcoin continues to not give a shit about pennants

I'll be right there with you if BTC can do this with any volume...  that's what I am waiting to see.

[windjc]

Looks like bitcoin continues to not give a shit about pennants

I'll be right there with you if BTC can do this with any volume...  that's what I am waiting to see.

What kind of volume do you want to see? Buying volume is almost always lower than selling volume.

Unless there is a buying volume timeframe you are using for comparison.

[samurai1200]

Looks like i was wrong! That's why i don't act on my own TA

Also looks like the mini rally was started by gox folks.

[Ozymandias]

Looks like bitcoin continues to not give a shit about pennants

I'll be right there with you if BTC can do this with any volume...  that's what I am waiting to see.

What would you consider enough volume (with all seriousness)? Would the 1k wall that was eaten in a couple bites over the course of the last couple of minutes do it for you?

EDIT: And another 1k wall eaten in a single bite