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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919364 times)
RyNinDaCleM
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July 22, 2014, 04:22:27 PM
 #1641

It's funny to stumble across the initial post in these times of ping-pong sideways-movements. You see, everyone back in last August complained about those boring times yet they didn't know a 1000% increase was to follow. I wonder how we will look back at these 'boring' times Smiley

It could be something like "gee I wish we were back up at $600" Wink

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Wekkel
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July 22, 2014, 05:08:58 PM
 #1642

This long time of sideways has got me scratching my head. Paging Masterluc!

Just wait another 6 months to understand the meaning of slowly grinding lower.

Ouch. Slow grind to retest the $340 low?

No one knows but I meant to paint a picture of a really 'long time' of no action (sideways or slowly decreasing). I favour that scenario.

In order for that some new horrible news would have to happen. If not, there is absolutely no reason to think we will stay at these relatively low levels for long.

I have seen a lot of positive news and MSM articles on Bitcoin and it did not impact price notably or consistently. There's no hype and that - in the long run - is good.

It's better for Bitcoin to rally due to increased use than because of hype (although hype is a necessary part).

This technology is still in its infancy. I can fully identify with Masterluc's earlier idea of an extended period of 'no price action'. Meaning more than one year at least. I have been through the slow grind after the 2011 bubble. Not very exciting but with an important resolution in the end  Roll Eyes

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giveBTCpls
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July 22, 2014, 10:40:27 PM
 #1643

I also see a similarity with the 2011 period, I think we will see a long steady period until next phase. Im ok with it as I can keep trying to get some BTC monthly, if the price goes higher i will be getting basically peanuts.

molecular
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July 23, 2014, 06:54:29 AM
 #1644

I also see a similarity with the 2011 period, I think we will see a long steady period until next phase. Im ok with it as I can keep trying to get some BTC monthly, if the price goes higher i will be getting basically peanuts.

I don't see similarity with 2011. At least not if you mean the excruciatingly painful bear market in the later part of that year. The media proclaimed BITCOIN DEAD!. Only the most stubborn idiots (like me) seemed to hold on to their Bitcoin. Sentiment on forum was terrible. Doomsayers pointed to earlier posts saying "scam", "ponzi", ...

However I also think we might be looking at quite a long period of sideways action... I'd rather compare it to summer 2013, though. Sentiment was mixed. Bulls were bullish, bears bearish. Bears are not very vocal right now, probably because of the stream of good news, but bulls are also kind of exhausted, having called/expected the next rocket just around the corner for up to half a year now.

I have accepted as quite probable we might have to wait a rather long time for the next jump to occur. So I'm rather disillusioned currently, neither buying nor selling. Kind of a capitulation, which is in turn: a good sign.

EDIT: I also give credit to luc for calling a "year-long bear market" late last year. At the time I thought he was nuts. Now one has to acknowledge his call wasn't off by much so far.

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JimNastics
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July 23, 2014, 07:09:27 AM
 #1645


 I also give credit to luc for calling a "year-long bear market" late last year. At the time I thought he was nuts. Now one has to acknowledge his call wasn't off by much so far.

Same, I scoffed when he made that post. As each day goes by, it's looking like a great call.
sumantso
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July 23, 2014, 11:30:17 AM
 #1646

It's funny to stumble across the initial post in these times of ping-pong sideways-movements. You see, everyone back in last August complained about those boring times yet they didn't know a 1000% increase was to follow. I wonder how we will look back at these 'boring' times Smiley

If I only could predict even half of what was going to happen I would be 10 times richer.

Still, 4-5 times over last year's price, not bad at all.

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July 23, 2014, 07:43:13 PM
Last edit: July 25, 2014, 06:09:30 PM by Tzupy
 #1647

For the bearish scenario, I noticed a similarity between the March charts and the current ones. The difference is that the movements
occur now 3x - 4x slower so I used 1d for recent charts and 6h for the March charts. An explanation for the much slower movements is
that in March the market was moved downwards by China FUD, while since May such FUD was mostly absent.
In the bearish scenario, today is similar to March 15th, with low volume and and undecided direction.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
seleme
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July 24, 2014, 05:59:50 AM
 #1648

It's either 800s or 440s..

I am leaning to 800s, can't see this level as accumulation. We're just consolidating after big 40% move and we're very close to recent tops.


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AceWallen
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July 24, 2014, 07:01:50 AM
 #1649

It's either 800s or 440s..

I am leaning to 800s, can't see this level as accumulation. We're just consolidating after big 40% move and we're very close to recent tops.

what do you mean by you "can't see this level as accumulation?" i thought accumulation = when distribution ends and buyers start outnumbering sellers/supply dries up.
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July 24, 2014, 10:47:03 AM
 #1650

Great post I saw on bitcoinmarkets regarding historical stability that I thought people following this thread would appreciate:


Calculating Stability - Methodology
This is the layout of my spreadsheet at present:

Column A - Date
Column B - Daily bitcoin close price (from coindesk)
Column C - LN(Column B)
Column D - Variance(Column C and previous 9 days)
Column E - 1 / Column D

What does this do then? It takes the log of the price of bitcoin, then the variance of that over the last 10 days to get a measure of the % fluctuation in bitcoin's price. The higher the value, the greater the volatility in price over those 10 days. But we want stability, so we take the inverse of that.

Charts
Charting price on a log axis against stability to 23rd July gives us the following:


It's quite clear that whenever we have a strong period of stability, a noticeable increase in price isn't too far behind.

(In my original post I accidentally said I'd used a 7 day variance, not 10. This changes the magnitude, but not the pattern:

Forecasts and Interpretation
We've identified 3 spikes (A, B and C) that appear to signal a coming increase in price. This chart shows how the price reacted following each of those spikes , ,

Clearly there's a lot of variation in the level and timing of the price increase, which I've summarised in this nice little table
What to do from here?
I think I'll start updating the first chart on a regular basis showing daily stability, adding that into the daily discussion thread.

Once it looks like peak stability has been and gone I'll declare that as Day Zero, and will start tracking the price against previous days since peak stability.

No Cults
All of this is based on something occuring 3 times in a row. Please none of the "Days until bubble: Peak Stability Date + (67 or 100 days)" nonsense. This is not a guarantee that a bubble's on the way! I know it's a pattern that most of us want to see, but don't let that cloud your judgement. This is not a scientific fact, merely a pattern.

Improving the methodology?
I need to get my hands on OHLC or hourly data to improve my meaure of stability, which I believe /u/gergi[6] has supplied me with - I just need to find the time to extract that and update accordingly.

Anyway, I've given you my approach so you can all play around and see what patterns you find. Perhaps setting the variance to more or less than 10 days gives different results? Perhaps using a data source besides coindesk gives an alternative view? Go out there and see what you can uncover!

tl;dr
When we have price stability we see an increase in price shortly after. This ranges from +165% to +1610% and can take 67 to 100 days. This is based on 3 observations. A sustained price decrease has never followed stability. We are currently experiencing price stability.

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2bj278/an_analysis_of_stability_and_spikes/

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July 24, 2014, 02:14:29 PM
 #1651

^ very nice analysis, i had quite the same without all these fancy graphs but its nice having the actual data.
although i kinda fear this stability to last a lil bit longer because of the psychological barrier from $600 to 1000; 2000; 3000...
anyho thx mate looking forward to your updates Smiley
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July 24, 2014, 02:35:34 PM
 #1652

First support could be found here


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July 31, 2014, 01:18:47 AM
 #1653

First support could be found here



touché ^^
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July 31, 2014, 05:50:03 PM
 #1654

Well



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July 31, 2014, 05:52:32 PM
 #1655

So, masterluc, do you still stick to your idea about long-term downtrend?

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July 31, 2014, 05:53:39 PM
 #1656

Well




you're a boss
masterluc
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July 31, 2014, 05:57:01 PM
 #1657

So, masterluc, do you still stick to your idea about long-term downtrend?
On edge. This shit should be resolved soon on theese two charts.

1. Weekly bollinger. It is eventually coiled and anticipating a big move. Next move outside bands will show the direction of next months.



2. All time log uptrend line. Bad news for bulls if it will be broken down.


windjc
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July 31, 2014, 07:10:37 PM
 #1658

I think we can test as low as 520 and hold and still potentially be in bullish scenario. Below that is a different story.
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July 31, 2014, 09:17:20 PM
 #1659

2. All time log uptrend line. Bad news for bulls if it will be broken down.



Interesting. Care to zoom it out/define it by the relevant points of contact?

The "all time log" line I get (including gox data) from connecting the lows is at about $220 as of today, so obviously different from yours.

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July 31, 2014, 10:46:46 PM
 #1660

I think we can test as low as 520 and hold and still potentially be in bullish scenario. Below that is a different story.

520 is not out of the question but less likely than to break the resistances and going back up to high 600s

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