[ANN] Ethereum: Welcome to the Beginning

[BitcoinPimp]

This is definitely over priced, Im not sure what they are thinking. 1 btc for 2k ethereum = 1 eth at 50K sat. At the current buy rate we will see around 600 Million buys. To be conservative lets say 200 Million token buys. I also asked in irc if there was going to be a cap and the answer was no. So I have no clue how buying into ethereum now is better vs mining or buying later. Right now crypto is so volatile that 5 months is an eternity at this rate I don't see how it will hold its value. BlackCoin already has smart contracts and black halo with a cap of 69 Million coins Pos, current price 14k sat per coin/token. Im pretty sure projects will develop that will challenge ethereum making it tuff for the token values to sustain for a long period of time. If anyone has more updated info than me as to why the value will grow on the tokens than by all means, open to other views. As an investors this whole entire project is way to complicated for me to understand what Im investing in and what my return will be if any in comparison to other exciting projects like blackcoin or vericoin that also have block chains were people could build on top of

And that is why the ethereum-team so carefully have labeled people who pre-buy ethereum now as "purchasers" and *not* "investors". That may seem like a insignificant semantics-detail for most people, but it seems clear to me it's been deliberately chosen for a *very* specific reason, and that is to make sure no "investors" will be hurt by it's obvious endless inflation-ratio (price-drop).

One can use common logic sense:

What is ethereum? It's mainly a "fuel" for running decentralized applications.

What is required from any platform that wish to become long-term successful as a "application service"? Look at any service like cloud-services etc. In order to be long-term successful as a provider of space where applications can be run, the price of such service *needs* to become cheaper and cheaper over time.

If you want to stay within the "laws of physics" in this area, one should then conclude with that; *IF* this platform becomes successful, the price of the "fuel" (ethereum) *MUST* keep on dropping steady in price, or else the application-creators/runners will not be able to afford running their applications in a competitive manner.

Ethereum looks awesome technically speaking. But "investing" in ethereum as a means of earning money seems foolish, unless they want the "fuel" to become more and more expensive over time. Which is in such case, absurd. Look at what disasters increasing oil-prices have on this planet. It forces poverty to grow. Not a pretty sight. If they want this "fuel" (ethereum) to become more and more expensive over time, it will then *not* become successful. Not a single talented application-developer/runner would even consider trying to use a platform for their application if they knew the run-cost would always increase over time. Imagine web-hosting become ever more expensive. Not many web-sites, if any at all; would exist at this point if such price-increase were a fact.

So, using the "elimination method" on all these known factors, we can conclude it will be a bad idea to "invest" in this "fuel" on long-term. Because if this platform *wants* to become successful, the run-cost of the applications *must* decrease over time. If the run-cost does not decrease over time, it will force the application-developers/runners to stop using it, or look elsewhere to run it at a cheaper more affordable price-level.

Which in turn, leads us back to my original statement of "why" they chose to use the label "purchasers" instead of "investors". I'm pretty sure the ethereum-developers are *very well* aware of the exact details i just wrote in this reply, and chose their semantics wisely thereafter to avoid pitchforks and torches outside their houses at night sometime in future.

Now, all this been said; As a short-term speculative "investment" this may very well turn out to be *incredible* profitable, since it seems to have gotten unprecedented hype-factors for months. Or it may very well plummet like a rock as 80% of all super-hyped stock-IPO's usually do when launched. (And yes i'm using the IPO semantics here even tho ethereum itself does not. Just because someone does *not* use a definition, does not mean its not the right one to use. If it walks like a duck, if it quacks like a duck, its a goddam duck) SO, one should calculate risk Vs Reward factors before purchasing (and NOT "investing" as the ethereum-devs clearly points out in their demographics) this "fuel" at the very least.

TL;DR:

Ethereum looks like a awesome project technically speaking, but in order for it to be long-term successful the price of the "fuel" (ethereum) that is required to run the applications *must* decrease over time to stay competitive. Thus, a long-term "investment" in such "fuel" would then be foolish. It would then be better to buy this fuel *when* you actually need it. The ethereum-devs further strengthens this fact by intentionally using clear semantics in their documents that you are a "purchaser" of this fuel (ethereum), and *not* a investor of this "fuel" in their demographics on their web-pages.

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[Eadeqa]

If you want to stay within the "laws of physics" in this area, one should then conclude with that; *IF* this platform becomes successful, the price of the "fuel" (ethereum) *MUST* keep on dropping steady in price, or else the application-creators/runners will not be able to afford running their applications in a competitive manner.

This nonsense. If demand is higher than supply, prices will rise, but services will still afford it as etherium like bitcoin  is divisible, with 8 decimal points. You argument is similar to someone claiming 21 million BTC aren't enough, even though we know we will never run out of BTC as there are plenty of satoshi per BTC

There is a pretty good chance the "purchasers" will end up doubling or tripling their investment if there is wide adoption. Even if there are 100  million etherium by the end of 2015, 1 billion market cap would mean profit.

[jubalix]

Can someone from the Ethereum Team, or ETHSuisse, please explain the rationale behind liquidating the company that would have just created Ethereum, shortly after the Genesis block?

ref: page 3 of 32 of the T&C of the Genesis Sale

The Ethereum Platform is being developed primarily by a volunteer contributor team -- many of whom will be
receiving gifts of ETH in acknowledgement of their dedication -- and will continue to be developed on a
volunteer basis by some developers as well as under a more formalized contracting or employment
relationship for other developers. The group of developers and other personnel that is now, or will be,
employed by, or contracted with, Ethereum Switzerland GmbH (“EthSuisse”) is termed the “Ethereum Team.”
EthSuisse will be liquidated shortly after creation of genesis block, and EthSuisse anticipates (but does not
guarantee) that after it is dissolved the Ethereum Platform will continue to be developed by persons and
entities who support Ethereum, including both volunteers and developers who are paid by nonprofit entities
interested in supporting the Ethereum Platform.

It makes the system less amenable to legal action, so thats good.

the TOS actually more or less say we promise nothing, and risk is all yours anyway.

[overthetop2011]

Ethereum looks like a awesome project technically speaking, but in order for it to be long-term successful the price of the "fuel" (ethereum) that is required to run the applications *must* decrease over time to stay competitive. Thus, a long-term "investment" in such "fuel" would then be foolish. It would then be better to buy this fuel *when* you actually need it. The ethereum-devs further strengthens this fact by intentionally using clear semantics in their documents that you are a "purchaser" of this fuel (ethereum), and *not* a investor of this "fuel" in their demographics on their web-pages.

Exactly!

[Chang Hum]

Mircea Popescu is offering up 5000 ETH per BTC in 8 months from now, 2.5x more ETH per BTC than the best rate being offered by Ethereum during the Genesis Sale. http://bitcoinpete.com/2014/07/23/a-guide-to-buying-5000-ether-bitcoin-2-5x-more-than-ethereums-genesis-sale/#comments

[BitcoinPimp]

This nonsense.

Why yes, of course, dear Sir. Perception is *always* subjectively linked to the observer and "nonsense" is of course correct with your perception; since you are the observer, thus linked to *your* perception. This is very well fine and dandy, but I personally would be cautious betting too much of *my* money on *your* particular type of perception. Because, obviously; I do *not* share *your* kind of perception, and never will.

Just because you use the word "nonsense" in a authoritative sounding tone, does not make it more "true" against my common logic breakdown of known facts. Carry on with your duck-hunting. I don't mind. Because I don't eat duck.

You argument is similar to someone claiming 21 million BTC aren't enough, even though we know we will never run out of BTC as there are plenty of satoshi per BTC

Nope. That is *your* claim and argument. Bitcoin is a currency and a storage of wealth, while ethereum is a "fuel" for running decentralized applications, which they clearly also state on their web-pages. Thus, Bitcoin and Ethereum can *not* be directly compared, because they are not the same. But this all brings us back to how "perception" works in a observer's mind, does it not?

[oskuro]

I read that ether wont be able to be mined using ASIC miners? You will need POW/POS Miners??mmmm. what miners are those?

[ciscokid]

but in order for it to be long-term successful the price of the "fuel" (ethereum) that is required to run the applications *must* decrease over time to stay competitive. Thus, a long-term "investment" in such "fuel" would then be foolish.

OR, the amount of Ether it takes to run the same application decreases over time, while the price could stay the same or go higher... Are the units of Ether not divisible like Bitcoin?...

[Eadeqa]

Nope. That is *your* claim and argument. Bitcoin is a currency and a storage of wealth, while ethereum is a "fuel" for running decentralized applications, which they clearly also state on their web-pages. Thus, Bitcoin and Ethereum can *not* be directly compared, because they are not the same. But this all brings us back to how "perception" works in a observer's mind, does it not?

That's irrelevant. Both BTC and etherium are divisible by 8 decimal points. If demand is higher than supply, then of course prices will rise, but in neither case your are running out of the  money/fuel. as they are divisible by eight decimal points.

Whether early buyers make money, that is totally dependent on the adoption/popularity/demand and supply rate, and that has nothing to do with your argument about running out of etherium as "fuel". That's silly.

[BitcoinPimp]

but in order for it to be long-term successful the price of the "fuel" (ethereum) that is required to run the applications *must* decrease over time to stay competitive. Thus, a long-term "investment" in such "fuel" would then be foolish.

OR, the amount of Ether it takes to run the same application decreases over time, while the price could stay the same or go higher...

Well that *is* a big fat *OR* at this point, is it not?

[ciscokid]

but in order for it to be long-term successful the price of the "fuel" (ethereum) that is required to run the applications *must* decrease over time to stay competitive. Thus, a long-term "investment" in such "fuel" would then be foolish.

OR, the amount of Ether it takes to run the same application decreases over time, while the price could stay the same or go higher...

Well that *is* a big fat *OR* at this point, is it not?

@ Ursium Do you care to chime in?

[BitcoinPimp]

that has nothing to do with your argument about running out of etherium as "fuel". That's silly.

You sure have a very overactive imagination. Where exactly did i write we will "run out of ethereum as fuel"? Seems to me, perhaps; your brain is running out of oxygen since it's starting to hallucinate? Hallucinations are a well-known side-effect of lack of oxygen. Your brain must be hallucinating, since I never ever wrote anything about running out of ethereum as "fuel". Thus, one should then conclude you should perhaps try breathe a bit more often?

[Eadeqa]

that has nothing to do with your argument about running out of etherium as "fuel". That's silly.

You sure have a very overactive imagination. Where exactly did i write we will "run out of ethereum as fuel"? Seems to me, perhaps; your brain is running out of oxygen since it's starting to hallucinate? Hallucinations are a well-known side-effect of lack of oxygen. Your brain must be hallucinating, since I never ever wrote anything about running out of ethereum as "fuel". Thus, one should then conclude you should perhaps try breathe a bit more often?

You are the one who wrote this:

If you want to stay within the "laws of physics" in this area, one should then conclude with that; *IF* this platform becomes successful, the price of the "fuel" (ethereum) *MUST* keep on dropping steady in price, or else the application-creators/runners will not be able to afford running their applications in a competitive manner.

That implies that etherium needs high inflation rate to keep the price low which of course nonsense  as you can just move to lower decimal point if the price is too high. It's not a physical fuel like oil, dumbass. There are plenty of etherium that can always  be "cheap" as you keep moving the decimal points.

 

[Dropkick]

Very young dev, huge ipo pre sale & people in #coinmarkets jumped on this like wild dogs.
Smells fishy to me.

[Eadeqa]

Very young dev

There is isn't "one developer" is it? There were several in the last 7 months.

[BigOrangeBee]

It's so funny how clueless people posting on this thread are about Ethereum. This project has been in development for many months already, and is very public. The ethereum core team consists of 8 developers not to mention a dozen or more others working on or with the project. Developers from all over the world have been creating and testing apps on the ethereum testnet for months.

This is the next Linux, which, might be more successful than Linux, actually. The time, energy, and work put into developing ethereum has been immense, and maybe the best minds in programming are involved. This is not a coin, its a whole new way of interacting with the internet.

It's so funny to hear people here talk about ethereum like its another altcoin, they have obviously not done any research at all. Ethereum is all over twitter, facebook, tumblr, blogs, news articles, and youtube. Search for ethereum on youtube and watch a few videos if you don't like to read. You are making yourselves look bad.

[nexern]

That implies that etherium needs high inflation rate to keep the price low which of course nonsense  as you can just move to lower decimal point if the price is too high. It's not a physical fuel like oil, dumbass. There are plenty of etherium that can always  be "cheap" as you keep moving the decimal points.

BitcoinPimp is not wrong here Eadeqa. price formation/discovery has nothing todo
with divisibility and from my understanding you have an investment devaluation
when moving to a lower decimal point (lowering fees) with 'fuel-driven' systems.

later eth pricing depends strongly on fee structure. how usefull the offered
services are seen and most important, how profitable this fee paid contracts are
compared to it's creation and costs to run.

in a worst case the benefit running a contract is so small, that the fee has to
lowered close to zero, to make it usefull/profitable. in this case you have a huge
eth surplus and price will go down, no matter how many decimal points you have.

[Amph]

It's so funny how clueless people posting on this thread are about Ethereum. This project has been in development for many months already, and is very public. The ethereum core team consists of 8 developers not to mention a dozen or more others working on or with the project. Developers from all over the world have been creating and testing apps on the ethereum testnet for months.

This is the next Linux, which, might be more successful than Linux, actually. The time, energy, and work put into developing ethereum has been immense, and maybe the best minds in programming are involved. This is not a coin, its a whole new way of interacting with the internet.

It's so funny to hear people here talk about ethereum like its another altcoin, they have obviously not done any research at all. Ethereum is all over twitter, facebook, tumblr, blogs, news articles, and youtube. Search for ethereum on youtube and watch a few videos if you don't like to read. You are making yourselves look bad.

nothing really new, just bitcoin plus freenet

you can add all those thing to bitcoin also...

and bitcoin wasn't with ipo

[Jedelqu]

Ethereum may be a good system with good team but I dont understand why you people only thinks that there are three best platforms : Mastercoin, Bitshares and Counterparty?There are many other platforms which already succesfuly running.Even Litecoin is in 2nd in position after Bitcoin and also they have the 2nd largest market.Dont misguide peolpe by giving wrong information as a marketing policy,by doing this in a wrong way you are insulting other good DEVs and Teams.By reading all the pages of this topic I have found that the team modirators or members are behaving rude with others whan it comes as "FAQ" which supposed to be commonly asked questions in BTT for better understanding the project.And if you have a little bit of marketing knwledge then you should know how to behave with investor or customers.Your service staff should give a high priority to customer satisfaction.

[Eadeqa]

in a worst case the benefit running a contract is so small, that the fee has to
lowered close to zero, to make it usefull/profitable. in this case you have a huge
eth surplus and price will go down, no matter how many decimal points you have.

The fees can never be zero. For example if someone is selling storage (disk space) , he would want the money. He will never accept "zero" as acceptable fee for his service.  This would also apply to all kind of other services and applications.  It all depends on adoption. If there are millions of users, and apps, and services, there is no reason why the prices won't go higher than IPO.

Also, regardless of it being a used as "fuel" for contracts (and transaction fees), it will also be a defacto currency on the platform.