Sportsbet.io's English Premier League Football Pool Discussion Thread

[tomahawk9]

Harko analysing our PL pool users, looking for patterns and calculating probabilities



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[darxiaomi]

hahahaha nice tips Harko, you forget one boy, i dont remember right now how is the username here in btctalk, but in Superbru is Mosalah, he put always close results like ,1-0 to the slighty favorite.

And Rdbase putting hilarious result in the hope to win a mighty yellow cap. Example Man city- against the last, you lock your pick and you can see all the pool with Man city to win and Rdbase putting th win for the another team or a draw.

Well im chequing and i dont see him in this pool. Im wrong with the name? Or this year he is not in?

[Joca97]

Finally we are starting just a few hours to go until the pool begins. I hope this year it will be really intresting due to so many members joining in and rewards that are increased. Also funny thing i picked all 2-1 1-2 results for this round haha so it will good to see what will happen.

[Trofo]

Harko analysing our PL pool users, looking for patterns and calculating probabilities

Damn he made a good analysis, got everyone right except me, quickly changing that Liverpool 3:0 prediction 

When I am using pool to validate my betting picks it is on games like Arsenal tomorow. For instance if there is 50 players and more than 35 go for Arsenal win I consider that as confirmation of my own prediction and place the bet. Same goes for both to score, I pick my game and then check if vast majority picked result that validates my bet.

[buwaytress]

A piece of advice when you're looking to pick opinion from the pool to place a bet, just know that the pool can often be evenly divided especially in games with no distinct favorites and following users having tendency to have the following prediction pattern or you could say bias and you might not want to include them in your sample sizes; buwaytress (Sojourner) hates Man City to the guts so you are likely to see him go for upsets against them more often, Hhampuz often is very unpredictable, this is probably the guy I'm very less familiar with his way of making picks, times I tend to think he just does them randomly, and Hilarious is the draw guy in my opinion, when I can't make clear cut decisions about games, I'd say to myself Hilarious has probably gone for a draw here, I doubt there is game week where he wouldn't have picked a draw or two at least., and LFC Bitcoin tends to go for a wider winning margins when it comes to clear favorites vs underdogs games, If the whole season should end with score like 5-1, 4-1, 4-0, Trofo and myself would probably be at the bottom of the table, but LFC_Bitcoin would be at one of the top spots, I'm certain!, I often share the same picks pattern with Trofo and Halab, more than anyone other set of individuals in the pool.


I've not locked any of my picks yet, but I can guess that LFC Bitcoin would likely have a 4-0 or 4-1 Liverpool to win over Fulham, Trofo and Halab are more of the 3-0 guys there, Hilarious is very likely to have gone for a draw in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, and If anyone would go for West Ham to win over Man City, Hhampuz and Buwaytress are your guys...

Great observations, and I think I couldn't have said it better, I feel like the median table goes for scores in between 2-0 to 3-1, and they'll generally do well, and our Captain is a draw specialist

I must admit that betting-wise, I bet every game against City it's been profitable for 4 seasons already, and from the odds I see so far, it's the only advice I'd give on betting. I also did it on the pool for the first 3 seasons (also, many games against the Big Six), but last season I played a completely different strategy (no more blind predictions on the underdogs) and I did significantly better (in fact, same improvements across all the pools I played).

Don't trust anyone to keep the same strat this season

[hilariousetc]

The first game is tonight so don't forget about that. If anyone is thinking of playing but can't pay yet I will give people a week or two to pay. You can sign up to Superbru and put in your picks now and they will carry on over once you join the pool.

We've got 58 people signed up now. Updated the payouts:

1 0.1
2 0.05
3 0.04
4 0.03
5 0.02
6 0.015
7 0.014
8 0.013
9 0.012
10 0.011
11 0.01
12 0.005
13 0.005
14 0.005
15 0.005
16 0.0025
17 0.0025
18 0.0025

Lets try to get 60 so we can have top 20. A couple of people have said they will pay so we should hit that. Any additional places will now just go towards a prize for the highest overall yellow cap (the highest weekly round score for those who haven't played before).

This is my first time in the pool, so I want to clarify some things: what is the forecast deadline? Crystal Palace vs Arsenal are playing tomorrow at 21:00, what is the latest time I can make a prediction? And what does "Lock" mean in the forecast interface? Until I press the lock can I change my prediction?

You can put in and change your picks right up until kick off as long as you don't lock them. Helpful if you change your mind or there's team news updates, but I find it's best to stick to your guns or gut feeling rather than change them as you tend to shoot yourself in the foot more often than not I find.

This is my first time in the pool, so I want to clarify some things: what is the forecast deadline? Crystal Palace vs Arsenal are playing tomorrow at 21:00, what is the latest time I can make a prediction? And what does "Lock" mean in the forecast interface? Until I press the lock can I change my prediction?

You cannot see other people's predictions until you press the lock button, and once your tip is locked, you cannot edit it! The deadline for predictions is before kickoff. You have from now till 20:58 to put in your prediction. 

And if you don't lock your picks you can change them until each particular game starts. You will still be able to change other results after Arsenal game starts, just be sure to not lock the picks. It is not necessary and is done automatically when games start. As igehhh said locking only gives you insight into what other players picked. I am sometimes using that to make a betting decisions as double check that my expected result is actually the one most people expect.

Okay, thanks for the explanations. I don't really see much point in peeking at other people's predictions, but I agree that when I bet I often need "approving" opinions or similar predictions in order to be more courageous in betting. Often, some odds seem too good and it's hard to believe that there's no catch in them.

Well it's like you said. People often want to go with the crowd or if you can see others picks you could play it strategically, especially in the later rounds where points are vital or in the last game of the round if you're trying to win the yellow cap.

[casperBGD]

-snip
I must admit that betting-wise, I bet every game against City it's been profitable for 4 seasons already, and from the odds I see so far, it's the only advice I'd give on betting. I also did it on the pool for the first 3 seasons (also, many games against the Big Six), but last season I played a completely different strategy (no more blind predictions on the underdogs) and I did significantly better (in fact, same improvements across all the pools I played).

Don't trust anyone to keep the same strat this season

it is completely different to play in a pool and to bet
in the pool, consistency matters, and few downs on favorites would not make you and bad (while on betting you need six wins from City for one lost match, if you bet on a single game, City to win (on a average 1.16 odds))
, so basically it is probably 6 or 7 from the pool, while break even on bets

on the other hand, betting on underdogs, you need one in seven to break even (on a average odds 7), and you would end up with 1 from 7 points in the pool, probably with a bat

personally, I do not look on other picks in the pool for any betting

[swogerino]

-snip
I must admit that betting-wise, I bet every game against City it's been profitable for 4 seasons already, and from the odds I see so far, it's the only advice I'd give on betting. I also did it on the pool for the first 3 seasons (also, many games against the Big Six), but last season I played a completely different strategy (no more blind predictions on the underdogs) and I did significantly better (in fact, same improvements across all the pools I played).

Don't trust anyone to keep the same strat this season

it is completely different to play in a pool and to bet
in the pool, consistency matters, and few downs on favorites would not make you and bad (while on betting you need six wins from City for one lost match, if you bet on a single game, City to win (on a average 1.16 odds))
, so basically it is probably 6 or 7 from the pool, while break even on bets

on the other hand, betting on underdogs, you need one in seven to break even (on a average odds 7), and you would end up with 1 from 7 points in the pool, probably with a bat

personally, I do not look on other picks in the pool for any betting

Sometimes I do.When I see that the majority of not only our pool but of all the users of Superbru are predicting a win for a certain team at more than 75% chance I may review my bet if I am going against them.

I am also happy that we are starting tonight with the Arsenal opening game which should be much different than the lost last game between the two teams and Arsenal should easily win this tonight.

The prizes are going up to 18 place which will get their fee back while having a lot of fun during the whole season.Yes this is the perfect pool.

[buwaytress]

One more point. I did gamble on the first match day last season on brentford to win their first game, incidentally against Arsenal who also opens the season. If I were not a Liverpool supporter I would take Fulham any day. Value odds!

West Ham over 8/1 and Brighton over 5/1 also feel value to me wink nudge.

[tokeweed]

One more point. I did gamble on the first match day last season on brentford to win their first game, incidentally against Arsenal who also opens the season. If I were not a Liverpool supporter I would take Fulham any day. Value odds!

West Ham over 8/1 and Brighton over 5/1 also feel value to me wink nudge.

Wtf?  Take Fulham to win against Liverpool?  You're not just saying that to get the pool noobs to pick Fulham to win, are you?  Lolol.  

It's a long shot but I get how maybe West Ham could win at home.  And this is the genius Moyes..  A guy who could out fox even the great Guardiola.  But United to lose at home in the first league match of the season?  And against Brighton?  I mean maybe but Brighton would have to be more than what they were last season.

[darxiaomi]

Oh man i was making my picks and i love to see the Notthingham Forest back to the Premier League, such a historical club with 2 Champions League.

I really hate the first rounds because you dont have a clue on how bad or good can be either team.

Who of the big six teams can have a bad season this year?

[LTU_btc]

So, today is the day! Folks, congratulations with a start of new season. Wish luck for your supported teams and don't lose too much in betting 
Almost 60 participants, not bad. I see many new names and seems that not everyone already joined Superbru. But damn, this season it will be even more difficult to get yellow cap.

[hilariousetc]

So, today is the day! Folks, congratulations with a start of new season. Wish luck for your supported teams and don't lose too much in betting 
Almost 60 participants, not bad. I see many new names and seems that not everyone already joined Superbru. But damn, this season it will be even more difficult to get yellow cap.

We have 59 slots paid for at least. Someone is going to pay me over the weekend so that's 60. Here are the final payouts:

1 0.1 (£1910)
2 0.05 (£955)
3 0.04 (£764)
4 0.03 (£572)
5 0.02 (£381)
6 0.015 (£286)
7 0.014 (£267)
8 0.013 (£248)
9 0.012 (£229)
10 0.011 (£210)
11 0.01 (£190)
12 0.005 (£95)
13 0.005
14 0.005
15 0.005
16 0.0025 (£47)
17 0.0025
18 0.0025
19 0.0025
20 0.0025

Any additional people that join the money will likely go to the highest overall yellow cap. A few people have said they will pay so there should be at least another one or two users.

There are still a handful of people who haven't joined the superbru pool yet. Don't worry if you haven't or don't have a link yet, just make sure your predictions are in on superbru and they will carry over. If you haven't paid but are thinking about it as above just make sure your scores are in on Superbru and they will carry over to our pool once you join.

First game is tonight at 8pm so don't forget about it. Don't worry too much if you miss that though as you get some default picks by superbru where they pick the most popular score for you.

[casperBGD]

~snip
But damn, this season it will be even more difficult to get yellow cap.

agree, it will be very difficult to get yellow cap in this pool
but it will be easier to end up in paying positions, since there is 20 paying position, a third from pool participant number

Arsenal is close to start against Palace, with this pool, now I have several Fantasy leagues to play, and Zaha is in my team, so cheering for Arsenal to win, but without clean sheet, since I would like Zaha to score as well

[Harkorede]

~snip
But damn, this season it will be even more difficult to get yellow cap.

agree, it will be very difficult to get yellow cap in this pool
but it will be easier to end up in paying positions, since there is 20 paying position, a third from pool participant number

Arsenal is close to start against Palace, with this pool, now I have several Fantasy leagues to play, and Zaha is in my team, so cheering for Arsenal to win, but without clean sheet, since I would like Zaha to score as well

I agree that it will be easier to be in the top 20 position 1/3 chance than to win a yellow cap 1/60... That said, I have my money on the Gunners to start the season on better note this season than they did against Brentford last season.

The lineups are available, and Arsenal look great from an attacking perspective, but the defense line looks not so convincing so they could really concede a goal here even if they win the game, but I don't intend to change my pick from the initial 2-0 pick I've had over 2 weeks ago.

[KTChampions]

Great observations, and I think I couldn't have said it better, I feel like the median table goes for scores in between 2-0 to 3-1, and they'll generally do well, and our Captain is a draw specialist

I must admit that betting-wise, I bet every game against City it's been profitable for 4 seasons already, and from the odds I see so far, it's the only advice I'd give on betting. I also did it on the pool for the first 3 seasons (also, many games against the Big Six), but last season I played a completely different strategy (no more blind predictions on the underdogs) and I did significantly better (in fact, same improvements across all the pools I played).

Don't trust anyone to keep the same strat this season

To be honest, I'm surprised you've been doing this for three seasons. From the point of view of profit, betting on an outsider is justified, since the odds are large and compensate for the risk, and there is always one "prize" in the pool for guessing a rare defeat of the favorite, so there is no point in making such a forecast.

[DireWolfM14]

I agree that it will be easier to be in the top 20 position 1/3 chance than to win a yellow cap 1/60...

Speak for yourself.   

That said, I have my money on the Gunners to start the season on better note this season than they did against Brentford last season.

The lineups are available, and Arsenal look great from an attacking perspective, but the defense line looks not so convincing so they could really concede a goal here even if they win the game, but I don't intend to change my pick from the initial 2-0 pick I've had over 2 weeks ago.

Arsenal looked good.  I was afraid I was being a bit preferential predicting 0-2 myself, but I couldn't imagine the Gunners starting like last year.  It took them long enough to get that second goal, but Palace did seem to wake up in the second half.  Great start to the season.

[buwaytress]

KTChampions yeah, it was really dumb of me to do that in the early seasons. Especially against City all the time. Pointless also to try go for exacts as Slam point make a huge difference.

Even against Arsenal and United last season I hardly predicted against them even when the results kept piling on badly. It seems wiser in the pools to stick with Quality, Gorm (how they play rather than how they fare). And not hoping for upsets all the time for no reason. Value odds betting should not be mistaken for upset probability.

[swogerino]

Nice game yesterday and a brilliant Arsenal,I knew they would win but I never thought they to keep a clean sheet during this game because the latest head 2 head has seen them conceding goals.I got 1.5 points like many others and a lot of people 3 points.

This brings up an interesting question,what if it was the end of the pool and so many people with the same amount of points,how will that be decided who get the prizes,based on overall performance like last pool which I would agree or in another format?

[KTChampions]

~
This brings up an interesting question,what if it was the end of the pool and so many people with the same amount of points,how will that be decided who get the prizes,based on overall performance like last pool which I would agree or in another format?

I can assume that it will be the same as in another pool that is held on the suprebru:

Remarks:
*There is no sharing of the prizes, Superbru has implemented tie breakers and I will use their final table as basis to pay out rewards

In addition, it is difficult to imagine that at such a distance and such a large number of points played (38 rounds of 10 games, this is the total from 0 to 1140 points), someone will have the identical indicators. Although it is more likely for a yellow cap.