2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[baeva]

Trump and the republicans got a nasty blow thanks to Taylor Swift acknowledging her support for Harris and the democrats just like she supported Biden-Harris way back in 2020.

Trump's pathetic fake Swift support using AI blew up in his face. Harris just became a lot more popular thanks to Swift's fans rallying behind her all of a sudden.

I saw the news about that but haven't read it, but when I check the odds, Harris is now leading Trump, 1.95 to 2.05 as per Stake.

So this is the swing that Harris and her camp could have been waiting for. The last time I check it was still Trump leading amongst, bettors, but there is a sudden shift maybe because of the Taylor Swift support or as the result of the debate.

Yep, after a successful debate for Harris she is ready for a new one, Trump though is wary of a new debate but I think he just needs time to prepare for a new one. Besides, Harris has some problems in her plans, either she will ruin the economy or she will not realise half of what she promised, and the attention to cryptocurrencies can be forgotten in this case. The problem is that when she proposed her ideas during the debate on various payments to families, professionals and so on - the total amount of such payments can reach 1.7 trillion dollars. Naturally, this is a bad sign for the economy and for her, because either she won't do it - or she will do it badly to the economy

[LUCKMCFLY]

She has always been a more extremist left wing component of democrat party, and that is why the party tried to keep the candidature of Biden for reelection the maximum they could. They knew Kamala's views would be immediately explored and exposed by Trump campaign, what can prejudice her acceptance among americans who have traditional views regards economy and society.

On the other hand, Biden was still able to gain the sympathy from this portion of the country, despite being a democrat and having extremist left wing allies behind him.

The point is that most people don't understand the backgrounds of politics, so politicians use the ignorance of the masses to benefit themselves and to put their plans in practice, doesn't matter if it's going to be good for the country or not, and doesn't matter if most people are adept of it or not.

I understand, because well, the truth is that I have a very radical opinion on everything that has to do with being communist/socialist, which for me is the worst trap set for humanity, that is something that is like a cancer instead of being eradicated it multiplies, I hope the USA does not fall into that because it would truly be the end for the Nation, in case of a risk of communism and if Trump were the only option, they should save themselves from that terrible current, those who say that socialism is something else, no, I tell them that they do not even know what they are getting into, they have no idea how terrible it is.

[TwitchySeal]

She has always been a more extremist left wing component of democrat party, and that is why the party tried to keep the candidature of Biden for reelection the maximum they could. They knew Kamala's views would be immediately explored and exposed by Trump campaign, what can prejudice her acceptance among americans who have traditional views regards economy and society.

On the other hand, Biden was still able to gain the sympathy from this portion of the country, despite being a democrat and having extremist left wing allies behind him.

The point is that most people don't understand the backgrounds of politics, so politicians use the ignorance of the masses to benefit themselves and to put their plans in practice, doesn't matter if it's going to be good for the country or not, and doesn't matter if most people are adept of it or not.

I understand, because well, the truth is that I have a very radical opinion on everything that has to do with being communist/socialist, which for me is the worst trap set for humanity, that is something that is like a cancer instead of being eradicated it multiplies, I hope the USA does not fall into that because it would truly be the end for the Nation, in case of a risk of communism and if Trump were the only option, they should save themselves from that terrible current, those who say that socialism is something else, no, I tell them that they do not even know what they are getting into, they have no idea how terrible it is.

And what are you thoughts on Fascism?

Because Trump is a hell of lot closer to Fascism than Kamala, or really anyone that could reasonably be considered a future democrat candidate for president, is to Communism.

I always assumed the reason in America Communism is considered evil is for the same reason Fascism is considered evil - all the power is consolidated away from the general public to one person or a small group of people.  If anything Fascism should be considered worse since having a dictator is a feature that the whole idea is centered on.

[cabron]

Trump and the republicans got a nasty blow thanks to Taylor Swift acknowledging her support for Harris and the democrats just like she supported Biden-Harris way back in 2020.

Trump's pathetic fake Swift support using AI blew up in his face. Harris just became a lot more popular thanks to Swift's fans rallying behind her all of a sudden.

I saw the news about that but haven't read it, but when I check the odds, Harris is now leading Trump, 1.95 to 2.05 as per Stake.

So this is the swing that Harris and her camp could have been waiting for. The last time I check it was still Trump leading amongst, bettors, but there is a sudden shift maybe because of the Taylor Swift support or as the result of the debate.

Yep, after a successful debate for Harris she is ready for a new one, Trump though is wary of a new debate but I think he just needs time to prepare for a new one. Besides, Harris has some problems in her plans, either she will ruin the economy or she will not realise half of what she promised, and the attention to cryptocurrencies can be forgotten in this case. The problem is that when she proposed her ideas during the debate on various payments to families, professionals and so on - the total amount of such payments can reach 1.7 trillion dollars. Naturally, this is a bad sign for the economy and for her, because either she won't do it - or she will do it badly to the economy

Trump will not be on ABC anymore. Did you see how he was fact-checked while Kamala wasn't?  The debate is 1 vs 3 and Trump is just one.

Kamala said she was there on Jan 6 but was just there in the morning and gone after a few minutes. But she said she was there while it was happening lol she wasn't fact-checked. And it's also true Pelosi was also in charge of the security in the capital at that time as said by Trump but the mods are crazy about saying abortion is not happening. Many things Harris said are not true, but ABC mods are just working for their boss.

[uneng]

She has always been a more extremist left wing component of democrat party, and that is why the party tried to keep the candidature of Biden for reelection the maximum they could. They knew Kamala's views would be immediately explored and exposed by Trump campaign, what can prejudice her acceptance among americans who have traditional views regards economy and society.

On the other hand, Biden was still able to gain the sympathy from this portion of the country, despite being a democrat and having extremist left wing allies behind him.

The point is that most people don't understand the backgrounds of politics, so politicians use the ignorance of the masses to benefit themselves and to put their plans in practice, doesn't matter if it's going to be good for the country or not, and doesn't matter if most people are adept of it or not.

I understand, because well, the truth is that I have a very radical opinion on everything that has to do with being communist/socialist, which for me is the worst trap set for humanity, that is something that is like a cancer instead of being eradicated it multiplies, I hope the USA does not fall into that because it would truly be the end for the Nation, in case of a risk of communism and if Trump were the only option, they should save themselves from that terrible current, those who say that socialism is something else, no, I tell them that they do not even know what they are getting into, they have no idea how terrible it is.

You are from Venezuela, right? So you have more than enough reasons to feel disgusted regards leftist extremist tendencies. You know how it tastes for real, while in countries like USA people only have thoughts about it, without having never tried on practice. Communism/socialism is like a food which stinks and tastes bad, but most people have never tried themselves or seen it in front of their eyes. And even thought it's terrible, the marketing around this is powerful enough to make people believe it's actually good!

Not that in another models of government and society everything works perfectly, but at least in Capitalism you have more opportunities and chances to thrive. USA has been always an example of that, but it seems their own people aren't proud about it anymore.

It's like that song says: don't know what you got till it's gone...

[Hispo]

...

I always assumed the reason in America Communism is considered evil is for the same reason Fascism is considered evil - all the power is consolidated away from the general public to one person or a small group of people.  If anything Fascism should be considered worse since having a dictator is a feature that the whole idea is centered on.

It is a cultural thing in the United States for people to be afraid of communism, it is nothing new, it goes back to the cold war era when the Soviet Union was around and was also a superpower competing against the United States in fields like technology, education and military advancements. From the beginning, there was a lot of stigma associated with socialism and communism, because those are political ideas which go directly against what supposedly makes the United States one of the best countries on the World.
Actually, I have some friends in the USA who tell me people there (mostly republicans) feel anything which sounds too "good" for the general population, like universal healthcare or welfare is some kind of socialist thing they are supposed to avoid from implementing.

In reality, communism and socialism in the USA is almost impossible to happen, because how the government is structured, in such a way the power is not held by a single person, there will be always strong opposition to centralization of power there and hence, social democrats have a long and uphill road to even get an actual socialist in the presidency.

[Wakate]

Trump and the republicans got a nasty blow thanks to Taylor Swift acknowledging her support for Harris and the democrats just like she supported Biden-Harris way back in 2020.

Trump's pathetic fake Swift support using AI blew up in his face. Harris just became a lot more popular thanks to Swift's fans rallying behind her all of a sudden.

I saw the news about that but haven't read it, but when I check the odds, Harris is now leading Trump, 1.95 to 2.05 as per Stake.

So this is the swing that Harris and her camp could have been waiting for. The last time I check it was still Trump leading amongst, bettors, but there is a sudden shift maybe because of the Taylor Swift support or as the result of the debate.

Yep, after a successful debate for Harris she is ready for a new one, Trump though is wary of a new debate but I think he just needs time to prepare for a new one. Besides, Harris has some problems in her plans, either she will ruin the economy or she will not realise half of what she promised, and the attention to cryptocurrencies can be forgotten in this case. The problem is that when she proposed her ideas during the debate on various payments to families, professionals and so on - the total amount of such payments can reach 1.7 trillion dollars. Naturally, this is a bad sign for the economy and for her, because either she won't do it - or she will do it badly to the economy

The debate between Harris and Trump was quite a success and I could noticed that Harris was quite insulting and always wany tio cover her incompetence as the vice president putting the blame on the president for anything that goes wrong.  If eventually Harris wins this election, I think we should prepare for anything that will happens because things might just become quite worse that what we are seeing. Even the current war between the Ukraine and Russia might even escalate more. What we want is peace in the world just like Trump has explained for everyone to leave their lives without pondering on world war 3. The United States citizens need a competent president that would abolish the doom day.

[alani123]

Trump had the chance in this debate to show some class and a better self than how the media portray him but he fumbled in quite a few instances.

Saying Democratic state governors want to allow mother's to execute their babies post birth... Saying immigrants are eating pets... Which was based on a debunked social media post. I mean dude even if that's true the solution is to give the poor immigrants some food, not to demonize them for being hungry.

And then there was Trump saying he ended the nordstream 2? So trump is singlehandedly responsible for Europe's energy crisis? Is that supposed to be a good thing? Honestly Trump delivered very few talking points that would readonate with someone outside of his hard base.

I was right the debate would be full of attacks but I didn't expect it as bad. Trump got too comfortable with Biden it seems. Now as expected Kamala leads the odds.

[nullama]

Trump had the chance in this debate to show some class and a better self than how the media portray him but he fumbled in quite a few instances.

Saying Democratic state governors want to allow mother's to execute their babies post birth... Saying immigrants are eating pets... Which was based on a debunked social media post. I mean dude even if that's true the solution is to give the poor immigrants some food, not to demonize them for being hungry.

And then there was Trump saying he ended the nordstream 2? So trump is singlehandedly responsible for Europe's energy crisis? Is that supposed to be a good thing? Honestly Trump delivered very few talking points that would readonate with someone outside of his hard base.

I was right the debate would be full of attacks but I didn't expect it as bad. Trump got too comfortable with Biden it seems. Now as expected Kamala leads the odds.

Based on those quotes I was just thinking how it is possible to have such a debate in the US.

It seems like the US has declined their quality of politicians over time. I remember watching older debates from more than a decade ago, and it's just night and day compared to these days.

For example, Kennedy's speech about going to the moon was extraordinary. It would be great if politicians these days all around the world talked a bit more like that. It's rare to hear an inspirational speech these days, it's just insults to the others.

[bbc.reporter]

Trump is leading against Kamala with only 8% on Polymarket.

https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1725946334167

These surveys, market polls etc are just useful for reference and never tell the complete story which is why depending on them completely is downright silly.

You are correct on surveys and polls, however on prediction markets, you are mistaken, I reckon. The participants in the prediction markets are betting real money and they have their desire to win from this bet. If to choose between the polls or the prediction market as a guide on how this election might conclude, it might be better to choose the percentages of the prediction markets.

On depending on them completely, who is doing this? They are only guidance on where presently are each of these candidates on their chance of victory heheheeh.

[viljy]

Well, the debate took place. This only reinforced my assumption that Kamala is most likely to win the election. Of course, we can talk about some kind of bias against Trump, or that the media allow some preferences to Kamala - all this is not a matter of betting. A combination of factors is important for a bet, not their legal or ethical side. Of course, Kamala's lead in the Polymarket is small, but even in the elections, the winner is likely to win due to a meager superiority.

[EarnOnVictor]

I wonder where you are getting your information from, Harris is doing well in her campaign and the automatic endorsement by Biden, Obama, Clinton and others has helped her to be almost unanimously nominated by the Democratic party

Don't forget Putin's support
Frankly speaking, being endorsed by a president who was removed from the campaign because he wasn't doing well and another that was impeached isn't something she should brag about.
Also, the way she did not participate in the primaries, but still got to participate in the general election is a bit shady.

Lol... I was just seeing this and can't stop laughing in Chinese. Are you for real? You can't be, bro. Which president endorsed Harris that was removed? I guess it's not Biden.

Perhaps you wanted to say that Biden stepped down from the presidential race? These are two different things, he's still the US president and it's his decision to step down no matter the pressure. But I still wonder about what you said regarding the president who was impeached and endorsed Harris.

I mentioned Biden and Obama in the last post as those who endorsed Harris but it can't be Obama you are referring to because he was never impeached, he was a two-term US president who finished his tenure well. It can't possibly be Joe Biden either.

[tygeade]

We can never know if it was because of Taylor Swift or if it was because of the debate, but we also can't see the results of neither the debate nor Taylor swift just yet on polls. Remember, it happened just yesterday, so it's clear that we haven't had polls showing the importance of that. You would have to have a company keep calling people every minute, by thousands, just to get the result, and you can't do that right that moment.

We need to remember that we are going to see this in a week or so, then we will have the idea who won the debate and how much Taylor swift helped them. If they can do fine then we are going to end up with a good result, we should probably wait and see what these poll companies will share.

[Poker Player]

He did an interview and it went terribly wrong:
https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6359799256112

"Who knows? Maybe we'll pay off our $35 trillion dollars, hand them a little crypto check, right?" Trump suggested to Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo in an interview. "We'll hand them a little bitcoin and wipe out our $35 trillion."

Obviously, the guy doesn't;t know a thing about crypto or Bitcoin, he probably thinks it's some sort of stocks or Paypal money at best, nor do I see him actually waiting one second of his life to learn more about it, he doesn't care about anything other than votes, and if he is elected then votes don't matter as he can't be president 3 times so he will just go after the money, shitcoind and mamecoins, pump and dump on hype and then that's it, and the morons who voted him for that would be left speechless, or at least I hope they won't open their mouths ever again!

Thanks, I had not seen the interview.

With a lot of luck and in quite some time, the total market cap will be $35T, which would be almost $2M per bitcoin and to that we would have to deduct inflation. That he says that with a few bitcoins and “writing a check” he could wipe out the debt has to make anyone who thinks this guy is the great hope for bitcoin think twice.

It's worse than I expected. I thought that since he has people around him who are bitcoin enthusiasts, not just Vance and Kennedy, but also other Republicans like Ted Cruz or Cynthia Lummis he would have ended up understanding the basics of it but he doesn't and I think it means he doesn't care about it any more than I expected.

[Haunebu]

You are correct on surveys and polls, however on prediction markets, you are mistaken, I reckon. The participants in the prediction markets are betting real money and they have their desire to win from this bet. If to choose between the polls or the prediction market as a guide on how this election might conclude, it might be better to choose the percentages of the prediction markets.

On depending on them completely, who is doing this? They only guidance on where presently are each of these candidates on their chance of victory heheheeh.

It all comes down to the human size factor. All of these polls, surveys, betting markets etc only focus on a small sample size which is why they are meant for reference only. If the sample size was big, this would be a completely different conversation.

Also, there are many people out there who completely depend on these statistics like fools thinking they are 100% accurate. This is why many of them were stunned when Clinton lost against Trump.

[stompix]

~
The town next to me had their swans eaten out of their community pond. The swans had been living and breeding there for decades. This was about 2 years ago in Arizona, so I am 100% positive that animals are being eaten by immigrants. I don’t know how bad it has become, but it isn’t imaginary. Maybe not worthy of a political talking point, but it is real.

Pets! Trump claimed illegal immigrants are entireing houses and yards and stealing dogs and cats for food!
Do you know how many Americans have been convicted of eating pets, real Americans?
Because a guy like Armin Meiwes existed does this mean Germans are cannibals?

Also, some of you really miss the point, do you realize the situation of the people who have to resort to such things? Doesn't sound to me like guys drainign the federal budget with their expenses 

It's worse than I expected. I thought that since he has people around him who are bitcoin enthusiasts, not just Vance and Kennedy, but also other Republicans like Ted Cruz or Cynthia Lummis he would have ended up understanding the basics of it but he doesn't and I think it means he doesn't care about it any more than I expected.

The guy could have Archimedes on his staff and he would still claim he could walk on water if he's fast enough or he eats a bag of doritos.

[el kaka22]

The reason for debates is not to convince other party members to join your party. No person who had Trump on their mind would vote for Kamala after the debate and no person who had Kamala on their mind would vote for Trump after the debate. The reason for debates to make sure your voters go out to vote, and that's the most important part, or worst case scenario you will do badly and your voters won't go out to vote.

The idea for democrats would be that Kamala would be so good and Trump would be so bad that Trump voters won't go out to vote and Kamala voters would go out to vote vice versa for other side. It's clear that Kamala won the debate, even conservatives says so, you can check twitter and reddit and anywhere else you want, but it's also important to remember that it's still too close.

I think even more than just the debate, Taylor Swift endorsing Kamala means she can get a ton of woman to register and vote, which will work wonders for Kamala without a doubt.

[LUCKMCFLY]

And what are you thoughts on Fascism?

Because Trump is a hell of lot closer to Fascism than Kamala, or really anyone that could reasonably be considered a future democrat candidate for president, is to Communism.

I always assumed the reason in America Communism is considered evil is for the same reason Fascism is considered evil - all the power is consolidated away from the general public to one person or a small group of people.  If anything Fascism should be considered worse since having a dictator is a feature that the whole idea is centered on.

Fascism is also entirely bad, for me communism, fascism and fanaticism in politics are what corrupts every political process, I really don't see a USA that will be affected by communism, I don't think Trump will go in a fascist direction, the people of the USA are very strong and just as they will not allow communism to be implemented, they will not allow fascism to be promoted.

Although from personal experience every communist dresses like a sheep and deceives the masses by telling them that they are an important part and they give them "power", but it is all a farce, I was really alarmed when Harris said that X should be banned, that is when I saw that she is not in favor of the freedoms that Americans still enjoy.

[TwitchySeal]

I don't think Trump will go in a fascist direction

The road to becoming a fascist leader:

Create an environment of "us" vs "them" rooted in ultra-nationalism.  Don't define "them" too narrowly, it's anyone who gets in your way.

Dehumanize political opponents and marginalized groups like immigrants or gays or anyone that's different by painting them as a direct threat to the country and your followers families.  Fill the people that like you with hatred for those who don't.  

Once your loyal followers are filled with hatred and fear for "them", convince them that you alone can save them and protect them.

Get good at lying.  Discredit any source of information that isn't absolutely loyal making you the default and single source of truth - this will make the conspiracy theories and eventually your "big lie" go down easy later on.

Defeat is only possible if "they" cheated.  You are either victorious or your victory was stolen from your followers.   Never concede.  Never apologize.  Always declare victory.

Deal with any political threat with maximum aggression.  Make examples of those who question you from within or from outside.  Implicitly encourage those who are loyal to attack your enemies, and their families mentally with harassment or physically with violence.  Convince people that these are patriotic actions and make the easiest path forward for non believers that want to keep their comfortable life to keep their mouth shut.

Make sure that you as an individual are what your followers are fighting for rather than something larger like religion or the country (The ultra nationalist rhetoric is still required because it sounds more acceptable to chant the name of your country than your name, and religion is fine as long as they think that god chose you).

[Hispo]

~
The town next to me had their swans eaten out of their community pond. The swans had been living and breeding there for decades. This was about 2 years ago in Arizona, so I am 100% positive that animals are being eaten by immigrants. I don’t know how bad it has become, but it isn’t imaginary. Maybe not worthy of a political talking point, but it is real.

Pets! Trump claimed illegal immigrants are entireing houses and yards and stealing dogs and cats for food!
Do you know how many Americans have been convicted of eating pets, real Americans?
Because a guy like Armin Meiwes existed does this mean Germans are cannibals?

Also, some of you really miss the point, do you realize the situation of the people who have to resort to such things? Doesn't sound to me like guys drainign the federal budget with their expenses  

To be honest, of an ilegal inmigrants entered the home of a person in the United States and whether this was a problem how widespread as the media wants us to believe it is, at this point there would be at least a handful of undocumented immigrant shot dead or wounded by house onwers who happened to be pro-second amendment and pro stand-your-land policies.
So far, I have not seen news (at least in the mainstream media) talking about inmigrants getting shot, so I would not give some credit to most of the reports of such incidents.
Though, one cannot help but to think how Trump looked like in front of the most of the people in the United States, while he was ranting about people eating pets and how his crowd sizes are the huge and Kamala having to alledgedly pay people to show up to her rallies. He sounded kind of like a madman, while Harris kept her cool most of the time.

Does not matter at all whether one likes Trump more or less than Kamala Harris, the fact is he took her baits and he lost his composure in the end.
Adding to the fact she had a fairly good debate from the beginning, it seems the superstar Taylor Swift has officially endorsed Kamala. Will have any effect on the result? Probably not, but since we are talking about a razor thin margin, each factor can make a difference.