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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1808473 times)
miscreanity
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May 24, 2012, 03:26:53 AM
 #1621

I don't require or expect that it does either in order for gold to meet my needs perfectly adequately.

Curiosity strikes: how does gold meet your needs?

That is because it remains in a deep hibernation.  The only difference between now and when I was more outwardly vocal about it's potential is because it is not it a state of cardiac arrest at this moment.  If it's going to 'go', it now has at least the ability to get to the starting point.

Is this in reference to general awareness and interest outside of the Bitcoin microcosm?
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May 24, 2012, 03:28:18 AM
 #1622

and this is where your economic model is exactly wrong.  sovereign debt defaults by themselves are driving the USD higher.  if UST's start to default this will drive the remaining USD's ever more skyward.  what about this don't you understand?  the debt buildup is directly responsible for the falling USD the last 4 decades.

The USD is rising against other forms of debt. How much of that rise is being used to prevent other monetary assets from rising as they normally would, and what kind of uncontrollably destructive force is being kept under wraps while it builds?

Yes, I'm going to quote myself again, because it's been spelled out:

Norcini - Central Bank Gold Buyers Battling Hedge Funds Today

While cypherdoc and so many others have been selling, thinking gold is going to fall into oblivion from here, banks and other large interests have been buying like mad - a transfer of wealth from weak holders and misinterpretations to strong hands established on what actually is happening. It's all about the phyzzz.

105,231 silver contracts were dumped on the market this morning between 9am and 10am EST, as silver was smashed a dollar from $28 to $27.

The paper is coming from out of nowhere: QE is in progress, and orders of magnitude greater than anything the world has ever seen. These "markets" are a complete fabrication - prices are not reflecting value of real assets!

I wouldn't be surprised if the total amount of outstanding derivatives now exceeds $2 quadrillion rather than the $700 trillion to $1.44 quadrillion estimates from the BIS.
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May 24, 2012, 03:45:00 AM
 #1623


That's exactly the point - there is no direct way of approximating the price without being part of the highest circles of influence. All of the official numbers thrown at us have been tainted by such an extreme level of unreliability that there's no way to trust them as being legitimate. The US employment numbers alone are so blatantly rigged that even the MSM has finally capitulated and run the story.

We can extrapolate based on the divergence between gold production relative to existing reserves, versus rates of fiat creation and associated debt instruments. Based on that, they are so far apart that the current prices for gold are nowhere even close to the low end of possibilities in fiat terms.

The best approximation I've seen is: Priced In Gold.

this is so dangerous.  i've tried to tell you many times there is NO WAY you can be aware of all the factors affecting the price of gold.  too much is unknown.  the only way to play this game is to follow the charts and go with the price.  if you stick to so many assumptions you could go broke.

and as for the "theory" of gold, i know that i've given you a strong case for deflation that you understand.  you just refuse to believe it.

Quote

goes up in value no matter what!!!  anyone with a brain can see this is wrong.

Not "goes up in value no matter what" - maintains purchasing power relative to other real goods no matter what. This distinction is very important.

for a year now the USD has been gaining purchasing power over silver and almost a year for gold.

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Do not play the demagogic politician by conflating my stance on precious metals with the patterns I see in social leadership. They may be related, but are still separable concerns. I truly hope that I am wrong in the social context, but nothing is suggestive of that save the potential of a singular, transcendent event.

what the heck are u talking about?
Quote

unfortunately, the screens reflect real prices, ie, reality.  you're living in a dream.

A lie behind a screen, masquerading as reality, is not reality. Let me know when you've mastered the ability to grab smoke and hold a reflection.

facepalm.
Quote

A gold bug's best friend is Bitcoin. There is no other financial instrument capable of offering improved functionality with the same set of emergent benefits.

When the time finally comes to make the transition, what else would ever be able to hold the wealth accumulated from millennia of use as a store of value than Bitcoin? Only Bitcoin or a variant of it.

it'll be one or the other.  not both.
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And look at how much it is being denied continuance of its legacy by growing powers around the world. The dominant Silverback only maintains power for so long before his demise.

and as much as u think the Fed will allow this, i think the Fed will put a stop to this.
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May 24, 2012, 03:58:13 AM
 #1624

and this is where your economic model is exactly wrong.  sovereign debt defaults by themselves are driving the USD higher.  if UST's start to default this will drive the remaining USD's ever more skyward.  what about this don't you understand?  the debt buildup is directly responsible for the falling USD the last 4 decades.

The USD is rising against other forms of debt. How much of that rise is being used to prevent other monetary assets from rising as they normally would, and what kind of uncontrollably destructive force is being kept under wraps while it builds?

you are so wrapped up in conspiracy theories i don't know how you do the "living" you say you do.
Quote

Yes, I'm going to quote myself again, because it's been spelled out:

Norcini - Central Bank Gold Buyers Battling Hedge Funds Today

While cypherdoc and so many others have been selling, thinking gold is going to fall into oblivion from here, banks and other large interests have been buying like mad - a transfer of wealth from weak holders and misinterpretations to strong hands established on what actually is happening. It's all about the phyzzz.

105,231 silver contracts were dumped on the market this morning between 9am and 10am EST, as silver was smashed a dollar from $28 to $27.

The paper is coming from out of nowhere: QE is in progress, and orders of magnitude greater than anything the world has ever seen. These "markets" are a complete fabrication - prices are not reflecting value of real assets!

I wouldn't be surprised if the total amount of outstanding derivatives now exceeds $2 quadrillion rather than the $700 trillion to $1.44 quadrillion estimates from the BIS.

isn't Norcini the one who said to go long right at the top of the miner breakout when i said sell?
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May 24, 2012, 04:00:01 AM
 #1625


I wouldn't be surprised if the total amount of outstanding derivatives now exceeds $2 quadrillion rather than the $700 trillion to $1.44 quadrillion estimates from the BIS.

i wouldn't either.  and you know what those are built upon?  DEBT. 

what happens if it blows?  the USD skyrockets.
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May 24, 2012, 04:16:05 AM
 #1626

do u realize just how perverted u gold bugs have become? 

the gold argument just one year ago went something like this:

"diversify your gold holdings by buying some physical, leveraging it by buying gold majors, and then getting even more beta by buying gold juniors.  nothing like owning some free gold in the ground.  and if u really want to make alot of money, buy silver for even higher beta.  and silver majors and juniors?  oh gaud, printing money!  and buying gold and silver is even more easy now that we have ETF's!"

what is the argument now?:

"oh, never mind gold major, gold juniors, silver majors, silver juniors, gold ETF's, silver ETF's.  they are just paper representations of the real thing.  and oh, BTW, never mind the quoted prices on the exchanges either, they're just manipulated by THE MANIPULATORS."

and another thing.  all u guys want us to think u just own bullion and have all along.  remember, i was there too.  i followed the above advice and owned miners on the way up.  i bet y'all still do and if u don't, sold at a huge loss.
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May 24, 2012, 04:17:16 AM
 #1627


As far as I am concerned, the US is mathematically certain to default on it's obligations at some point, and is likely to do so prior to it becoming mandatory anyway.  To the extent that I hold USD, it will be me who gets the shaft.  In the mean time any number of things could happen.  I've sat through similar periods of PM consolidation and never got in a panic about things.  I'm not even close to doing so this time either.

and this is where your economic model is exactly wrong.  sovereign debt defaults by themselves are driving the USD higher.  if UST's start to default this will drive the remaining USD's ever more skyward.  what about this don't you understand?  the debt buildup is directly responsible for the falling USD the last 4 decades.

The mechanics of a default could take several forms.  The German way of hyperinflation, or a recall and re-definition of the currency solution.  If you've convinced yourself that the USD will be rocketing in value in anyway that is useful to us peeps as we default on our obligations, you must be between joints.  Last I looked, the USD is completely fungible.  I guess you are saying that a default would entail different classes of USD (internal and external.)  That is a common conjecture and I would not rule it out but I also don't think it is likely to do me any good.  The one thing I am highly confident in is that I am not in the class of people who will be protected in the event of an economic crisis in the US.  I need to look out for myself because the 1% (or more likely, the .01%) is not going to do it for me.  Quite the opposite in fact, and thus my interest in 'pfyzzz'...and in Bitcoin.

The fluctuation in the value of the USD are easily explainable in the here and now as the 'leper with the most fingers' principle.  On a higher plane it has to do with our military might and how we've positioned it.

Quote
Thanks for finally sharing this tid-bit with us non-paying leeches.
and this is why you're a troll.  there are plenty of legitimate businesses here on the forum trying to make a "go" of it with a Bitcoin business.  you clearly despise this.  what's wrong with you?  are you that much of an anarchist?

I'm not much of an anarchist at all.  I'm a socialist.  I see anarchy as a last ditch re-boot, but would not rule out the possibility that it could end up being the only remaining option if we drift to deeply into fascism.

It is true that I don't have much use for the a lot of the businesses popping up in the Bitcoin economy, and also not much use for a lot of the people who a solution like Bitcoin appeals to.  A lot of them I consider to be low minded, self interested dirt-bags who would probably cheat their own mothers to make a dime.

On the other hand, there are also a decent number of people I can identify with and respect.  And the general solution itself has the potential to be incredibly empowering to the 99% which is a great thing in my book.  More-so, in fact, than almost any invention in recorded human history.


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May 24, 2012, 04:18:00 AM
 #1628

do u realize just how perverted u gold bugs have become?  

the gold argument just one year ago went something like this:

"diversify your gold holdings by buying some physical, leveraging it by buying gold majors, and then getting even more beta by buying gold juniors.  nothing like owning some free gold in the ground.  and if u really want to make alot of money, buy silver for even higher beta.  and silver majors and juniors?  oh gaud, printing money!  and buying gold and silver is even more easy now that we have ETF's!"

what is the argument now?:

"oh, never mind gold majors, gold juniors, silver majors, silver juniors, gold ETF's, silver ETF's.  they are just paper representations of the real thing.  and oh, BTW, never mind the quoted prices on the exchanges either, they're just manipulated by THE MANIPULATORS."

do u realize how desperate u all sound?

and another thing.  all u guys want us to think u just own bullion and have all along.  remember, i was there too.  i followed the above advice and owned miners on the way up.  i bet y'all still do and if u don't, sold at a huge loss.
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May 24, 2012, 04:25:11 AM
 #1629

The paper is coming from out of nowhere: QE is in progress, and orders of magnitude greater than anything the world has ever seen. These "markets" are a complete fabrication - prices are not reflecting value of real assets!
+1

This is exactly what I have been wondering: Why do they have to announce any future QE? ... and why is the financial world so obsessed with the announcement of "QE3"?  

The Fed may have obligation to make (certain types of) its operations known to maintain a thin veil of legality -- QE1, QE2, LTRO/2.5 -- there are so many loopholes that the term QE3 may never be needed. Easing, twisting, outsourcing, mopping ... never underestimate their creativity.

Meanwhile, many other central banks are used to to conduct secretive operations, in massive scale. The 500 tonnes increase of Chinese gold reserve was never announced beforehand, with their massive foreign reserve, PBOC can buy all the gold in Fort Knox without impacting their "core" holding -- US debt. Why not? they have everything to gain, very little to lose.  


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May 24, 2012, 04:31:45 AM
 #1630


I wouldn't be surprised if the total amount of outstanding derivatives now exceeds $2 quadrillion rather than the $700 trillion to $1.44 quadrillion estimates from the BIS.

i wouldn't either.  and you know what those are built upon?  DEBT.  

what happens if it blows?  the USD skyrockets.

you know what those are built upon?  DEBT.  
you know what DEBT are built upon?  TRUST
you know what USD are built upon?  TRUST
They are connected at the hip.

When you destroy one form of trust (debt), it will find ways to mutate into another form, destroying everything connected to it.

what happens if TRUST blows?  The confidence game ends.
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May 24, 2012, 04:35:44 AM
 #1631



The fluctuation in the value of the USD are easily explainable in the here and now as the 'leper with the most fingers' principle.  On a higher plane it has to do with our military might and how we've positioned it.


no.  at least 60% of worldwide debt is denominated in USD.  and the rest of the foreign debt is backed in foreign vaults by USD reserve currency.  why do u think the Fed has to do swap lines to Europe constantly?  to prevent the USD denominated debt within that region from imploding.  this USD denominated debt expansion worldwide is what drove down the USD value the last 4 decades.

now that is going into reverse, and when that bad debt is liquidated there is a scramble for the remaining USD cash that drives up the value of the remaining USD's in circulation.  this is why you saw the USD rise in 2008 paradoxically.  and its been going on again since last July.  it's FORCED not voluntary or based on TRUST.
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May 24, 2012, 04:58:03 AM
 #1632

The paper is coming from out of nowhere: QE is in progress, and orders of magnitude greater than anything the world has ever seen. These "markets" are a complete fabrication - prices are not reflecting value of real assets!
+1

This is exactly what I have been wondering: Why do they have to announce any future QE? ... and why is the financial world so obsessed with the announcement of "QE3"?  

why are u so obsessed with getting more QE?  are u a Keynesian?

Quote

The Fed may have obligation to make (certain types of) its operations known to maintain a thin veil of legality -- QE1, QE2, LTRO/2.5 -- there are so many loopholes that the term QE3 may never be needed. Easing, twisting, outsourcing, mopping ... never under overestimate their creativity ability.

Meanwhile, many other central banks are used to to conduct secretive operations, in massive scale. The 500 tonnes increase of Chinese gold reserve was never announced beforehand, with their massive foreign reserve, PBOC can buy all the gold in Fort Knox without impacting their "core" holding -- US debt. Why not? they have everything to gain, very little everything to lose.  

if i was Ben, just to spite all of you and the Chinese, Russians, and Mexicans, i'd RAISE interest rates tomorrow.  point being i wouldn't trust him with a 10 ft pole.

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May 24, 2012, 05:00:43 AM
 #1633


The fluctuation in the value of the USD are easily explainable in the here and now as the 'leper with the most fingers' principle.  On a higher plane it has to do with our military might and how we've positioned it.


no.  at least 60% of worldwide debt is denominated in USD.  and the rest of the foreign debt is backed in foreign vaults by USD reserve currency.

The rest of the world either plays ball and absorbs our inflation or they get no energy.  Lack of energy means end-of-game in most of the important countries at this stage.  This is not just some sort of conspiracy theory...it's been outlined quite openly in various documents (specifically the project for the new American century and the authors had 8 years to march forward...and wasted not time in doing so.  But they neither started the general strategy, nor did their predecessors end it.)

why do u think the Fed has to do swap lines to Europe constantly?  to prevent the USD denominated debt within that region from imploding.  this USD denominated debt expansion worldwide is what drove down the USD value the last 4 decades.

So what?  ZIRP, QE generally and the current swap activity would have been considered completely unthinkable not more than a handfull years ago.  Now it's standard fare.  All that tells me is that we are reaching absurdities associated with the end of exponential processes and it's time to be well on one's guard for seismic shifts.  This is how I would expect a fiat system to end.

now that is going into reverse, and when that bad debt is liquidated there is a scramble for the remaining USD cash that drives up the value of the remaining USD's in circulation.  this is why you saw the USD rise in 2008 paradoxically.  and its been going on again since last July.  it's FORCED not voluntary or based on TRUST.

The argument that we are in 2008 all over again seems to be gaining credence.  Either we see another cycle (in which Au doubled iirc) or we have a total economic re-boot.  I'm totally happy to sit on my golden nest-egg in either situation.


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May 24, 2012, 05:09:37 AM
 #1634

I'm totally happy to sit on my golden nest-egg in either situation.



of course.  then there's nothing else to be said.
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May 24, 2012, 05:20:11 AM
 #1635

I don't require or expect that it does either in order for gold to meet my needs perfectly adequately.

Curiosity strikes: how does gold meet your needs?

It preserves my purchasing power.  You know the score.

It is worth note (and I'm to lazy to quote from a different thread here) that I actually have nothing much against central banks and central economic planning if they are run for the common good, and I buy into the Keynesian spiel about the power of these solution.  I see no eminent danger of them being run for the common good however and consider it preferable that people forcibly take what should be theirs rather than getting shit on by a minority of assholes at the top.

I also note that even a modest amount of fairness and responsibility in our economic systems is a good thing for at least a decent fraction of society and a disaster for gold.  We saw this in the Volker period and when the S&L criminals were getting their pee-pees whacked and it was a long cold winter for gold bugs where the purchasing power argument did not really hold so well.  Again, I see no eminent danger of such a thing returning.  But I keep my eyes open and will adjust accordingly if I see such a threat rearing it's head.


That is because it remains in a deep hibernation.  The only difference between now and when I was more outwardly vocal about it's potential is because it is not it a state of cardiac arrest at this moment.  If it's going to 'go', it now has at least the ability to get to the starting point.

Is this in reference to general awareness and interest outside of the Bitcoin microcosm?


Bitcoin needs a certain level of interest just to keep it evolving.  I felt that we were at a point where that was in real danger of.  I don't feel that way currently.

I have to admit that my analysis of the structure of the specific solution leads me to be less confident in it than I was at that time.  But the evolution of the solution itself and the number of people being stimulated to think about the problems and potential solutions is an important thing to maintain.


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May 24, 2012, 05:24:07 AM
 #1636

this is so dangerous.  i've tried to tell you many times there is NO WAY you can be aware of all the factors affecting the price of gold.  too much is unknown.  the only way to play this game is to follow the charts and go with the price.  if you stick to so many assumptions you could go broke.

and as for the "theory" of gold, i know that i've given you a strong case for deflation that you understand.  you just refuse to believe it.

It isn't necessary to know all of the factors, as long as you understand what gold is. Rote memorization of myriad different case situations can often be described by a single formula - understanding the principle allows narrowing of potentials.

goes up in value no matter what!!!  anyone with a brain can see this is wrong.

Not "goes up in value no matter what" - maintains purchasing power relative to other real goods no matter what. This distinction is very important.

for a year now the USD has been gaining purchasing power over silver and almost a year for gold.

Read that again - where did I say anything about the USD?

Gold has maintained a steady range in relation to oil for over 50 years. The dollar has not. A similar situation exists with various other real assets.



what the heck are u talking about?

This:

Quote
What hurts is the sad trend of western nations toward a modernized Hitler/Mussolini/Stalin-style fascism and the associated destruction of humanity.

hey bitcool;  who's trying to scare ppl into investing in what?  i'd say gold bugs are notorious for this.

You made a statement about the falling paper price of gold "hurting" and I replied by saying that it was something else entirely that hurt, not the falling gold price. Miscommunication perhaps; the two were separate and if you hadn't mentioned hurting, I wouldn't have brought up fascism.

This real pain has nothing explicitly to do with gold.

it'll be one or the other.  not both.

In the end, yes - but the transition will be a process, whether it's fast or slow.

and as much as u think the Fed will allow this, i think the Fed will put a stop to this.

By doing what? By raiding demand deposit accounts of citizens because everything else has already been drained? By telling the BRICs that they'd better keep buying US debt - or else? By bombing brown people to keep the oil flowing?

The Fed is a big magician - a snake oil salesman. And he's outstayed his welcome.

you are so wrapped up in conspiracy theories i don't know how you do the "living" you say you do.

Where's the logical, reasoned rebuttal that refutes documented efforts by the US gov't to manage markets?

isn't Norcini the one who said to go long right at the top of the miner breakout when i said sell?

I haven't been keeping track for some time. Link?

I wouldn't be surprised if the total amount of outstanding derivatives now exceeds $2 quadrillion rather than the $700 trillion to $1.44 quadrillion estimates from the BIS.
i wouldn't either.  and you know what those are built upon?  DEBT. 

what happens if it blows?  the USD skyrockets.

Armageddon accompanies that. Monetization is the only option when there isn't enough time to naturally process the debt. It's like choking because you've stuffed too much beef down your gullet, and peristalsis can't move the backlog quickly enough.

The question is: how much debt monetization must occur to stabilize the economy on a global basis? Will it be 20%, 50%, 80% or more?

What would happen if even 10% had to be monetized? Including Eurodollars/Petrodollars, there is perhaps $20-30 trillion in base money supply. If $70-144 trillion came into the world markets over a period of less than a decade, monetary inflation stands a very good chance of causing pricing destabilization which rapidly leads to catastrophic business failure and debt defaults. The whole cycle accelerates from there.

I subjectively think any less than 50% debt monetization ($350-722 trillion or more) would be insufficient. If that level is not met, debt growth would be virtually guaranteed to outpace the world's ability to process it - this may be the US dollar's 51% threat.

do u realize just how perverted u gold bugs have become? 

the gold argument just one year ago went something like this:

"diversify your gold holdings by buying some physical, leveraging it by buying gold majors, and then getting even more beta by buying gold juniors.  nothing like owning some free gold in the ground.  and if u really want to make alot of money, buy silver for even higher beta.  and silver majors and juniors?  oh gaud, printing money!  and buying gold and silver is even more easy now that we have ETF's!"

what is the argument now?:

"oh, never mind gold major, gold juniors, silver majors, silver juniors, gold ETF's, silver ETF's.  they are just paper representations of the real thing.  and oh, BTW, never mind the quoted prices on the exchanges either, they're just manipulated by THE MANIPULATORS."

I know I don't speak for all gold advocates, and many would rail against my ideas just as they do Bitcoin.

I have always been negative on the majority of precious metal ETFs as an investment - they are by and large short-term trading instruments; GLD especially is the epitome of paper gold.

Miners have had and still have massive upside growth potential. There are geopolitical risks inherent with owning them, which is less desirable than having physical bullion in possession - potentially to the point of avoiding miners under certain circumstances. Careful selection is necessary, but miners are still very worthwhile - especially with the possibility of paying dividends in kind.

I've been saying for a long time that a paper/physical separation is possible, and that each stress to extreme outside ranges raises the chance of that occurring. The mechanism for that occurring have also been outlined repeatedly.

and another thing.  all u guys want us to think u just own bullion and have all along.  remember, i was there too.  i followed the above advice and owned miners on the way up.  i bet y'all still do and if u don't, sold at a huge loss.

To that, I think it's been said better than any way I can put it...

Quote from: Jesse Livermore
"It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting."
~Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

I'm a socialist.

I don't know if we can be friends anymore  Cry

The fluctuation in the value of the USD are easily explainable in the here and now as the 'leper with the most fingers' principle.  On a higher plane it has to do with our military might and how we've positioned it.
no.  at least 60% of worldwide debt is denominated in USD.  and the rest of the foreign debt is backed in foreign vaults by USD reserve currency.  why do u think the Fed has to do swap lines to Europe constantly?  to prevent the USD denominated debt within that region from imploding.  this USD denominated debt expansion worldwide is what drove down the USD value the last 4 decades.

now that is going into reverse, and when that bad debt is liquidated there is a scramble for the remaining USD cash that drives up the relative value of the remaining USD's in circulation.  this is why you saw the USD rise in 2008 paradoxically.  and its been going on again since last July.  it's FORCED not voluntary or based on TRUST.

I love the leper analogies Smiley

"Denominated in" does not equate to "exclusively redeemable in".

Absent increasing inflation, there is more pressure for the USD to collapse than to continue providing stability. Since all other options have been shut out, the USD can only swing in one of two directions: it can remain the world's reserve currency at the expense of the US economy or it can be inflated to oblivion so America can escape its debt burden.

Forcing USD holders in a certain direction after they trusted the US promise to manage the dollar responsibly results in foreign holders seeking a way to get out of the USD. You don't think there's selling of the dollar by the biggest participants on the planet? What do you think China is using to acquire gold and natural resources?

if i was Ben, just to spite all of you and the Chinese, Russians, and Mexicans, i'd RAISE interest rates tomorrow.  point being i wouldn't trust him with a 10 ft pole.

Seriously, WTF? Raise interest rates?

So the US would be paying the BRICs more on the massive holdings they already have? Some "punishment". How does that do anything but harm domestic interests in the short-term? At least there might be a glimmer of hope for genuine recover, but the sitting political establishment would have the Bernank replaced in a split second, possibly after a surprise "terror" attack so further power grabs could be pushed.
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May 24, 2012, 05:36:53 AM
 #1637

I don't require or expect that it does either in order for gold to meet my needs perfectly adequately.
Curiosity strikes: how does gold meet your needs?
It preserves my purchasing power.  You know the score.

It is worth note (and I'm to lazy to quote from a different thread here) that I actually have nothing much against central banks and central economic planning if they are run for the common good, and I buy into the Keynesian spiel about the power of these solution.  I see no eminent danger of them being run for the common good however and consider it preferable that people forcibly take what should be theirs rather than getting shit on by a minority of assholes at the top.

I also note that even a modest amount of fairness and responsibility in our economic systems is a good thing for at least a decent fraction of society and a disaster for gold.  We saw this in the Volker period and when the S&L criminals were getting their pee-pees whacked and it was a long cold winter for gold bugs where the purchasing power argument did not really hold so well.  Again, I see no eminent danger of such a thing returning.  But I keep my eyes open and will adjust accordingly if I see such a threat rearing it's head.

Just making sure I was on the same page Smiley

I agree that central banking/economic planning could work, and did to an extent. As far as I see it, reliance upon the fallible human component led to failure, similar to how communism could work on a large scale (not merely in small, functional communes) if everyone were completely honest and thought the same way.

Bitcoin needs a certain level of interest just to keep it evolving.  I felt that we were at a point where that was in real danger of.  I don't feel that way currently.

I have to admit that my analysis of the structure of the specific solution leads me to be less confident in it than I was at that time.  But the evolution of the solution itself and the number of people being stimulated to think about the problems and potential solutions is an important thing to maintain.

At this point, yes, there does need to be growing interest. That shouldn't be as important as the asymptote is approached. Bitcoin certainly weathered the decline well.

I wonder whether the reduced confidence is attributable more to greater awareness of the weaknesses after having been tested more than previously. After all, the same risks are still present and have been since before last year's bubble. Adaptability in such a young environment is something that I think outweighs the dangers for now, and will for some time.
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May 24, 2012, 05:43:14 AM
 #1638

I'm a socialist.

I don't know if we can be friends anymore  Cry

I didn't know if I could be friends with a Libertarian after the head-stomp at the Rand Paul event...and general reaction to it.

But I have the great fortune of having a co-worker and friend who calls himself a Libertarian and he is one of the most decent salt-of-the-earth guys I've ever met.

BTW, thanks for the Robespierre link.  I'd seen some sort of a documentary about him sometime in the distant past and watched with fascination and horror.  It's great to keep everything in perspective and keep in mind that while general trends might have some validity, it is a grave error to attempt to map them at an individual level.  And, of course, that power corrupts with stunning regularity.


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May 24, 2012, 05:54:57 AM
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I'm a socialist.

I don't know if we can be friends anymore  Cry

I didn't know if I could be friends with a Libertarian after the head-stomp at the Rand Paul event...and general reaction to it.

But I have the great fortune of having a co-worker and friend who calls himself a Libertarian and he is one of the most decent salt-of-the-earth guys I've ever met.

BTW, thanks for the Robespierre link.  I'd seen some sort of a documentary about him sometime in the distant past and watched with fascination and horror.  It's great to keep everything in perspective and keep in mind that while general trends might have some validity, it is a grave error to attempt to map them at an individual level.  And, of course, that power corrupts with stunning regularity.

There are positive and negative elements in everything, and any self-respecting libertarian would reject violent aggression. Like the Occupy movement, any substantial trend is eventually bound to attract interests anathema to the core.

My own views might be closest to agorism. I've observed and helped develop business methods that seem counter-intuitive and costly at first, yet result in positive outcomes for all participants, leading me to a stance that what we think of as the state may be unnecessary. Judge.Me is one business that I recently became aware of, and happens to accept Bitcoin for payment.

Glad the link was worthwhile: sharing information makes us what we are Smiley
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May 24, 2012, 05:58:45 AM
 #1640

Has anyone been noticing the biggish up-spikes on negligible volume at Gox? Looks like pressure is building for the makings of a breakout.
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