The center cannot hold.
A solid futures gaming explanation
and analysis by TF. Technicals aren't worth a damn in this situation - reliability
here lies only with the fundamentals. Also, some very interesting charts
Martin Armstrong's analysis during the past couple of months pointed to one of two possibilities:
- An approach of the recent highs in May, then a return to the lows in June
- A low in May, followed by a retest or breach of the high in June
To my recollection, there was also a section about gold continuing on to make new highs later in the year, all in the midst of increasing volatility.
You can certainly make a killing by trading the turns in relatively short time-frames. However, what you hold your profits in matters greatly.
What you describe would be like making a profit in Bitcoin trading, but keeping your winnings in Euro or USD when Bitcoin is rising against all
currencies. By the same token, gold is rising against all
currencies. The only distinction is that, right now, gold is rising against the USD more slowly
than it is rising against the Euro.
I'll say it again: a separation between paper
gold (and silver, other precious metals, commodities, etc) will lead to you being correct on the dollar rising against prices quoted in paper
gold, yet blind to the physical
Say I build a house using $500,000 worth of materials and try to sell it for $550,000 - a 10% gain. The problem is that buyers don't bite at that level because the neighborhood is not highly desirable, and the only offer I receive is $300,000 - a 40% discount just on the materials
. If I had no choice and was forced to sell, the real value
of the property based on the underlying materials would still be $500,000 despite the fact that the contract sale was for 40% less. The buyer (shark) got an absolute steal in regard to the physical
A house is not mobile - gold is. If I can't buy or sell gold at a price I want, there are literally thousands of markets I can try at varying scales of accommodation, so your arguments about lack of liquidity in gold are erroneous. If a contract for the house in the example above were selling at $10,000 there would be unbelievable demand, but only after it's discovered. Until that point, I might not be able to give
the house away even though it's worth 50x that amount for the parts alone
. Gold doesn't need to be parted out - it is
the part, the underlying component. It is the foundational financial unit
in the same way Bitcoin is proving itself to be.
Physical reality is not going away anytime in our foreseeable future. Therefore, gold is not going away, no matter how many paper obfuscation games are played. That's also why I see gold and Bitcoin working well together for a long time to come.