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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804677 times)
cypherdoc
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June 01, 2012, 04:03:55 AM
 #1801

i also regularly listened/listen to Antal Fekete, Steve Keen, Don Coxe, Michael Panzer, Jim Rogers, Nicole Foss, Denninger, Russ Roberts, Bill Fleckenstein, Peter Schiff, Prechter, Bill Bonner, Jesse's Cafe, Bill Murphy, Eric King, McAlvaney, Zerohedge, Andy Horowitz etc, etc.  We all have our favorites.
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tvbcof
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June 01, 2012, 04:21:08 AM
 #1802

the memories are starting to flood back in.

i can't take total credit for the New Century short.  i was a sub to the Gloom, Boom, Doom report of Marc Faber's back then and he recommended it in one of his letters.  as you know he's a real gold bug too.

i also frequented Calculated Risk back then and was a regular poster.  THAT was where i figured out housing was going to implode.  also the Implode O Meter with Aaron Krowne was another excellent site that helped clarify things.  also Mish was good.

You've name-droped a lot of the greats.  Who of these people share your current believe in the eminent collapse of Au?  Cuz it really does seem to me that yours is something of a lonely voice compared to a lot of the other people I've followed.

I think that Mish and very few others nailed the deflationary nature of the event that we went through in 2008, and indeed continuing to this day.  The thing is that it really did not have the impact on Au that I had anticipated having to sit through.  My best explanation is that under our 'modern' fiat monetary systems and financial structures, certain anticipated market artifacts can be well obscured.  There is a legitimate argument that when the piper's music becomes deafening we _will_ see the expected price collapses and they may effect Au, but I would _still_ rather be sitting on the phyzzz in that kind of scenario.

pre-post-edit:  And in a more recent post you've name-dropped a bunch more.  Same question though.


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June 01, 2012, 04:24:16 AM
 #1803

i almost think of myself as a short seller primarily.  its b/c you can make so much so fast and i inherently don't trust artificial value that has been pumped into P/E's.

having done it btwn 2007-9, i know that it is certainly possible to make money short selling. its hard though.  most ppl don't think of investing from the short side.  its either long or nothing. or its un-American.  i think that deprives one of an important tool.

i think i'm better prepared for how this downturn will play out. i certainly made alot of mistakes back then.  i didn't use cycles as much as i do now, i was more easily scared out of my positions by artificial ramps, i'm more patient, i know that there will be explosive ramps b/c of gov't intervention (like banning short selling on financials), the importance of avoiding leverage in high risk situations, ignoring rumors (remember the incessant Buffett's gonna purchase this rumor?).  or how about how the sovereign wealth funds were gonna buy US stocks anytime now?

we're entering a time of unprecedented danger but also one of great opportunity.
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June 01, 2012, 04:31:51 AM
 #1804

You've name-droped a lot of the greats.  Who of these people share your current believe in the eminent collapse of Au?  Cuz it really does seem to me that yours is something of a lonely voice compared to a lot of the other people I've followed.

I think that Mish and very few others nailed the deflationary nature of the event that we went through in 2008, and indeed continuing to this day.  The thing is that it really did not have the impact on Au that I had anticipated having to sit through.  My best explanation is that under our 'modern' fiat monetary systems and financial structures, certain anticipated market artifacts can be well obscured.  There is a legitimate argument that when the piper's music becomes deafening we _will_ see the expected price collapses and they may effect Au, but I would _still_ rather be sitting on the phyzzz in that kind of scenario.

pre-post-edit:  And in a more recent post you've name-dropped a bunch more.  Same question though.



none that i know of.  but how many of them know about Bitcoin?  none that have come forward at least.  i've never been afraid of bucking the trend.  just b/c i respect them doesn't mean i can't think for myself.

do u remember how badly the miners got sold off?  i remember loading up on SLW at $6 and not being able to hold onto it past $9.  how stupid was that?

the thing i think all the gold bugs are missing is yes gold bullion didn't get smashed down much back then but then we never cleared the market of all our problematic debt either.  this time i think we will b/c who is going to bail out sovereigns now that the debt has been tx'd to them by the banks?  CB's?  i don't think so.  they aren't going to sacrifice themselves as evidenced by Iceland and soon Greece who will pull out of the EU.

then gold will take a smash.
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June 01, 2012, 05:02:53 AM
 #1805


none that i know of.  but how many of them know about Bitcoin?  none that have come forward at least.  i've never been afraid of bucking the trend.  just b/c i respect them doesn't mean i can't think for myself.

That grudgingly extracts a certain amount of respect from me.  I am relatively familiar with holding unpopular opinions myself Wink


do u remember how badly the miners got sold off?  i remember loading up on SLW at $6 and not being able to hold onto it past $9.  how stupid was that?


Not clearly.  I don't own any and never paid all that much attention to them.

I will say that I have some suspicion of some of 'the greats' for being a little more on the pump-it-up side of the mining stocks than I am comfortable with.  My own suspicious and paranoid nature perhaps.

It is actually true that way way before 2008 someone made the point that mining stock will suffer a certain amount of the fate associated with any stock by virtue of the fact that the are, in fact, stock.  The Phyzzz, not so much.  For better or worse that bit of advice stuck in my head and has influenced my desire to have a footprint in that sector.  A negative influence of course.


miscreanity
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June 01, 2012, 05:12:34 AM
 #1806

The center cannot hold.

A solid futures gaming explanation and analysis by TF. Technicals aren't worth a damn in this situation - reliability here lies only with the fundamentals. Also, some very interesting charts.

Martin Armstrong's analysis during the past couple of months pointed to one of two possibilities:
  • An approach of the recent highs in May, then a return to the lows in June
  • A low in May, followed by a retest or breach of the high in June

To my recollection, there was also a section about gold continuing on to make new highs later in the year, all in the midst of increasing volatility.

You can certainly make a killing by trading the turns in relatively short time-frames. However, what you hold your profits in matters greatly.

What you describe would be like making a profit in Bitcoin trading, but keeping your winnings in Euro or USD when Bitcoin is rising against all currencies. By the same token, gold is rising against all currencies. The only distinction is that, right now, gold is rising against the USD more slowly than it is rising against the Euro.

I'll say it again: a separation between paper and physical gold (and silver, other precious metals, commodities, etc) will lead to you being correct on the dollar rising against prices quoted in paper gold, yet blind to the physical metal's value.

Say I build a house using $500,000 worth of materials and try to sell it for $550,000 - a 10% gain. The problem is that buyers don't bite at that level because the neighborhood is not highly desirable, and the only offer I receive is $300,000 - a 40% discount just on the materials. If I had no choice and was forced to sell, the real value of the property based on the underlying materials would still be $500,000 despite the fact that the contract sale was for 40% less. The buyer (shark) got an absolute steal in regard to the physical product.

A house is not mobile - gold is. If I can't buy or sell gold at a price I want, there are literally thousands of markets I can try at varying scales of accommodation, so your arguments about lack of liquidity in gold are erroneous. If a contract for the house in the example above were selling at $10,000 there would be unbelievable demand, but only after it's discovered. Until that point, I might not be able to give the house away even though it's worth 50x that amount for the parts alone. Gold doesn't need to be parted out - it is the part, the underlying component. It is the foundational financial unit in the same way Bitcoin is proving itself to be.

Physical reality is not going away anytime in our foreseeable future. Therefore, gold is not going away, no matter how many paper obfuscation games are played. That's also why I see gold and Bitcoin working well together for a long time to come.
notme
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June 01, 2012, 05:21:55 AM
 #1807

The center cannot hold.

A solid futures gaming explanation and analysis by TF. Technicals aren't worth a damn in this situation - reliability here lies only with the fundamentals. Also, some very interesting charts.

I finally understand... you base your analysis on charts from the future.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
miscreanity
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June 01, 2012, 05:23:13 AM
 #1808

the thing i think all the gold bugs are missing is yes gold bullion didn't get smashed down much back then but then we never cleared the market of all our problematic debt either.  this time i think we will b/c who is going to bail out sovereigns now that the debt has been tx'd to them by the banks?  CB's?  i don't think so.  they aren't going to sacrifice themselves as evidenced by Iceland and soon Greece who will pull out of the EU.

So central banks will stand idly by as economies crumble, financial systems catastrophically fail, and riots or potentially civil wars break out?

Which route destroys the central banks sooner: crushing deflation into guaranteed chaos or continued inflation toward an indeterminate breaking point (after which crushing deflation ensues)? Both destroy banks, but the latter delays the inevitable for a longer period than the former. Banks will not be suicidal; they'll try to survive in any way they can.

I like analogies. Imagine you've decided to climb a 100m vertical cliff. From the top there's a gradual descent on the other side to ground level. Half-way up, you're exhausted. Do you:
  • A. Keep climbing no matter what, hoping that your body doesn't give out before reaching the top or;
  • B. Give up and let go, falling to your death

If you've ever tried to climb down from a rockface (without abbing), you know that can be as difficult, or even more so than continuing up.

Remember when I suggested that you call the tops and I call the bottoms? Smiley

It is actually true that way way before 2008 someone made the point that mining stock will suffer a certain amount of the fate associated with any stock by virtue of the fact that the are, in fact, stock.  The Phyzzz, not so much.  For better or worse that bit of advice stuck in my head and has influenced my desire to have a footprint in that sector.  A negative influence of course.

FOFOA has ruminated on the possibility of distressed and under-capitalized mining companies issuing shares in excess, diluting share value as fiat printing dilutes the respective currency. A warning well worth heeding.

Gold - accept no substitute... except maybe bitcoins and silver Smiley
miscreanity
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June 01, 2012, 05:24:25 AM
 #1809

I finally understand... you base your analysis on charts from the future.

Yep, Pirate lent me his time machine Smiley
hazek
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June 01, 2012, 12:50:43 PM
 #1810

Kaboom:


What an insane market this is.

My personality type: INTJ - please forgive my weaknesses (Not naturally in tune with others feelings; may be insensitive at times, tend to respond to conflict with logic and reason, tend to believe I'm always right)

If however you enjoyed my post: 15j781DjuJeVsZgYbDVt2NZsGrWKRWFHpp
SkRRJyTC
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June 01, 2012, 01:02:38 PM
 #1811

3 weekly hammer in a row for PMs seems a bit more likely after that spike.

What conclusion should be drawn from back to back reversal candles?
cypherdoc
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June 01, 2012, 01:09:08 PM
 #1812

Wash, rinse, repeat:

cypherdoc
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June 01, 2012, 02:29:39 PM
 #1813

3 weekly hammer in a row for PMs seems a bit more likely after that spike.

What conclusion should be drawn from back to back reversal candles?

nothing
SkRRJyTC
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June 01, 2012, 02:35:13 PM
 #1814

3 weekly hammer in a row for PMs seems a bit more likely after that spike.

What conclusion should be drawn from back to back reversal candles?

nothing

So it doesn't strengthen or weaken the reversal signal in your opinion?  We continue to wait for a confirmation candle then...

In my mind the more times that 26.xx level in Silver and the 1520 level in gold is defended, the better the chance of a reversal, but I dont have a good reason for that.  You could use the same logic to say that we have hit resistance at the 29 level in silver and the 1600 level in gold...
cypherdoc
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June 01, 2012, 02:42:20 PM
 #1815

3 weekly hammer in a row for PMs seems a bit more likely after that spike.

What conclusion should be drawn from back to back reversal candles?

nothing

So it doesn't strengthen or weaken the reversal signal in your opinion?  We continue to wait for a confirmation candle then...

In my mind the more times that 26.xx level in Silver and the 1520 level in gold is defended, the better the chance of a reversal, but I dont have a good reason for that.  You could use the same logic to say that we have hit resistance at the 29 level in silver and the 1600 level in gold...

but you know i'm a cycles man.
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June 01, 2012, 02:43:20 PM
 #1816

Marc Faber is a local here in the place I used to live, Chaing Mai Thailand. He loves his gold, girls and beer:)

hahaha.  yeah, he admits freely to that!  ah, to be young again!  oh wait...
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June 01, 2012, 02:56:00 PM
 #1817

SLW leading things back down.
tvbcof
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June 01, 2012, 02:57:03 PM
 #1818

Kaboom:


What an insane market this is.

Godamnit!  I only had days to go before wanting the do that USD->PM conversion.  I figured I would not be so lucky.  Maybe we could get just one more stomach churning plunge in PM's.

I had expected the USDX to need to drop more to produce an upward move in PM's at this scale.  As I look just now, it's only dropped to 82.70.  A lot of gold bugs might be very happy indeed when it gets back down into the mid 70's.  Unless they, like I, wish to do some more accumulation that is.


cypherdoc
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June 01, 2012, 03:09:24 PM
 #1819

Kaboom:


What an insane market this is.

Godamnit!  I only had days to go before wanting the do that USD->PM conversion.  I figured I would not be so lucky.  Maybe we could get just one more stomach churning plunge in PM's.

I had expected the USDX to need to drop more to produce an upward move in PM's at this scale.  As I look just now, it's only dropped to 82.70.  A lot of gold bugs might be very happy indeed when it gets back down into the mid 70's.  Unless they, like I, wish to do some more accumulation that is.



oh, you'll get your chance.  just make sure this isn't deflation we've entered into.  might want to wait until its triple digits again.
tvbcof
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June 01, 2012, 03:20:06 PM
 #1820

Kaboom:


What an insane market this is.

Godamnit!  I only had days to go before wanting the do that USD->PM conversion.  I figured I would not be so lucky.  Maybe we could get just one more stomach churning plunge in PM's.

I had expected the USDX to need to drop more to produce an upward move in PM's at this scale.  As I look just now, it's only dropped to 82.70.  A lot of gold bugs might be very happy indeed when it gets back down into the mid 70's.  Unless they, like I, wish to do some more accumulation that is.



oh, you'll get your chance.  just make sure this isn't deflation we've entered into.  might want to wait until its triple digits again.

I suspect I'll be playing it safe vis-a-vis PMs and get the phyzzz while I can.  I may go ahead and sit on a little more cash than I would ordinarily as a hedge against deflation (and with the hope that it impacts valuations more or less as classical theory indicates...)


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