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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1803724 times)
tvbcof
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May 25, 2012, 07:24:30 PM
 #1661

Both Bitcoin and gold (& silver) are grinding upward. The dollar is all over the place, and the Euro is getting ever-closer to the breaching the $1.25 level. For the past few days, commodity currencies have not been dragged along with the Euro as tightly as they were in recent weeks.

Once Euro sub-$1.25 happens, I'm expecting a final panic sell-off in equities and forex into the end of May or early June; markets have been too controlled so far. Gold may be dragged a bit lower initially, but I don't think by much; I'm still looking for the $2,100 to $3,000 range to be hit in the next cycle.

Just like I (maybe we?) suspected, a need for liquidity would produce a drop-out in Au prices but then the interested big buyers (probably Sino-much) would put a floor under things.

I did not really expect the floor to be so vanishing personally.  I guess competition for the phyzzz continues to grow.  If I had dumped Au and just now glanced at the Au vs. USDX charts, I would be sitting in a warm pool of urine about now.


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waveaddict
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May 25, 2012, 07:47:24 PM
 #1662

Bitcoin is still its own game.

It is poorly correlated with PM's.

It is poorly correlated with DXY.

Agree. Even though most don't want to hear it, bitcoin is still in the same realm as a low market cap stock (~penny stock) which trades all by itself. The only thing to change this of course would be for the price to head a lot higher and gain more of an awareness. Once that happens, then there will inevitably be a correlation between bitcoins and every other investment.

waveaddict
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May 25, 2012, 07:53:19 PM
 #1663

Both Bitcoin and gold (& silver) are grinding upward. The dollar is all over the place, and the Euro is getting ever-closer to the breaching the $1.25 level. For the past few days, commodity currencies have not been dragged along with the Euro as tightly as they were in recent weeks.

Once Euro sub-$1.25 happens, I'm expecting a final panic sell-off in equities and forex into the end of May or early June; markets have been too controlled so far. Gold may be dragged a bit lower initially, but I don't think by much; I'm still looking for the $2,100 to $3,000 range to be hit in the next cycle.

I would worry a little more about the Mr. Deflation who is hiding under the bed. Just because gold has gone up for a decade does not mean that it will continue to go up. There is a reason that most people lose money in the market; most people join a trend only after it has ended.

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May 25, 2012, 08:14:11 PM
 #1664

Both Bitcoin and gold (& silver) are grinding upward. The dollar is all over the place, and the Euro is getting ever-closer to the breaching the $1.25 level. For the past few days, commodity currencies have not been dragged along with the Euro as tightly as they were in recent weeks.

Once Euro sub-$1.25 happens, I'm expecting a final panic sell-off in equities and forex into the end of May or early June; markets have been too controlled so far. Gold may be dragged a bit lower initially, but I don't think by much; I'm still looking for the $2,100 to $3,000 range to be hit in the next cycle.

In the first wave of the Euro crash towards 1.18-1.19 and possibly towards parity, PM will dive with the Euro at least to Gold 1,300

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waveaddict
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May 25, 2012, 08:26:29 PM
 #1665

Both Bitcoin and gold (& silver) are grinding upward. The dollar is all over the place, and the Euro is getting ever-closer to the breaching the $1.25 level. For the past few days, commodity currencies have not been dragged along with the Euro as tightly as they were in recent weeks.

Once Euro sub-$1.25 happens, I'm expecting a final panic sell-off in equities and forex into the end of May or early June; markets have been too controlled so far. Gold may be dragged a bit lower initially, but I don't think by much; I'm still looking for the $2,100 to $3,000 range to be hit in the next cycle.

In the first wave of the Euro crash towards 1.18-1.19 and possibly towards parity, PM will dive with the Euro at least to Gold 1,300

Agree. Once $1500 falls, panic will ensue and knife the price down to at least $1300 during the Euro fall to $1.20. Now if the euro breaches $1.17, parity is a real possibility and very quickly which would send gold down to at least $1000.

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May 25, 2012, 08:44:13 PM
 #1666

Both Bitcoin and gold (& silver) are grinding upward. The dollar is all over the place, and the Euro is getting ever-closer to the breaching the $1.25 level. For the past few days, commodity currencies have not been dragged along with the Euro as tightly as they were in recent weeks.

Once Euro sub-$1.25 happens, I'm expecting a final panic sell-off in equities and forex into the end of May or early June; markets have been too controlled so far. Gold may be dragged a bit lower initially, but I don't think by much; I'm still looking for the $2,100 to $3,000 range to be hit in the next cycle.

I would worry a little more about the Mr. Deflation who is hiding under the bed. Just because gold has gone up for a decade does not mean that it will continue to go up. There is a reason that most people lose money in the market; most people join a trend only after it has ended.

Thank You.
tvbcof
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May 25, 2012, 08:55:42 PM
 #1667


The Three Marketeers unite!  "Muppet armies:  Let's roll."

---

Someone needs update the rather amusing picture of the three Bitcoin Consultancy bozos which popped up yesterday.


Blitz­
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May 25, 2012, 08:58:28 PM
 #1668

The Three Marketeers unite!  "Muppet armies:  Let's roll."
The Dash for (Digital) Cash. Cool

Personally I love metals for their shininess, but I would be afraid of alchemy’s millenia old dream coming true eventually.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
waveaddict
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May 25, 2012, 08:59:48 PM
 #1669


The Three Marketeers unite!

that actually has a nice ring to it Wink

What say you fellow marketeers?

molecular
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May 25, 2012, 09:26:15 PM
 #1670

The Three Marketeers unite!  "Muppet armies:  Let's roll."
The Dash for (Digital) Cash. Cool

Personally I love metals for their shininess, but I would be afraid of alchemy’s millenia old dream coming true eventually.

haha, interesting question: is it easier to make gold from lead or to reverse sha256?

I honestly don't know.


PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
miscreanity
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May 25, 2012, 09:31:19 PM
 #1671

Bitcoin is still its own game.

It is poorly correlated with paper PM's.

It is poorly correlated with DXY.

Agreed.

Just like I (maybe we?) suspected, a need for liquidity would produce a drop-out in Au prices but then the interested big buyers (probably Sino-much) would put a floor under things.

I did not really expect the floor to be so vanishing personally.  I guess competition for the phyzzz continues to grow.  If I had dumped Au and just now glanced at the Au vs. USDX charts, I would be sitting in a warm pool of urine about now.

Yep, and that big buyer group includes the very institutions so railed against - JPM, Citi, HSBC, etc.

I would worry a little more about the Mr. Deflation who is hiding under the bed. Just because gold has gone up for a decade does not mean that it will continue to go up. There is a reason that most people lose money in the market; most people join a trend only after it has ended.

Where are most people now? Gold is the last thing most people are in, at least when it comes to the western world. That means half the world has yet to get in on the precious metal appreciation.

As I explained earlier in the thread, it takes mere seconds to type in an arbitrarily-large number, and perhaps a few minutes to days for that to make its way into the world financial system. Deflation doesn't occur that quickly because debt is often negotiated on and tied up in legal proceedings, so as long as there is belief/trust and dependency on the existing fiat system, inflation will outpace deflation.

Re-read that and ask yourself how deflation could possibly overwhelm monetary inflation that can occur nearly instantaneously without the base money being rejected.

In the first wave of the Euro crash towards 1.18-1.19 and possibly towards parity, PM will dive with the Euro at least to PAPER Gold 1,300

I swear, I'm going to have to figure out a way to automatically precede every quoted utterance of 'gold' with 'paper' when 'physical' isn't specified.
miscreanity
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May 25, 2012, 09:34:48 PM
 #1672

The Three Marketeers unite!
that actually has a nice ring to it Wink

What say you fellow marketeers?

Yes, please assume that moniker so the rest of us with sensibility can make use of "The Real Deal" and step away from the paper avalanche discussion Smiley
tvbcof
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May 25, 2012, 10:05:39 PM
 #1673


General Comment: USDX: now @ 82.40.  Gulp!

Another Score:  5/25/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     7.30         5.15       + 0.71
Gold    1528         1574      + 1.03

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago

day           ya-btc  btc  mult    ya-Au  Au    mult
2012-05-25  7.30  5.15  0.71    1528  1574  1.03
2012-05-24  7.10  5.14  0.72    1514  1558  1.03
2012-05-23  7.10  5.13  0.72    1515  1562  1.03
2012-05-22  6.30  5.09  0.81    1512  1560  1.03
2012-05-21  5.90  5.10  0.86    1514  1590  1.05
2012-05-18  7.50  5.12  0.68    1497  1592  1.06    
2012-05-17  7.80  5.09  0.65    1480  1574  1.06            
2012-05-16  7.40  5.09  0.69    1495  1533  1.03
2012-05-15  6.80  5.03  0.74    1492  1545  1.04
2012-05-14  8.50  5.00  0.59    1495  1555  1.04
2012-05-12  5.40  4.95  0.92    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-11  5.00  4.95  0.99    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-10  3.82  4.90  1.28    1510  1593  1.05
2012-05-09  3.75  5.03  1.34    1510  1590  1.05
2012-05-08  3.64  5.03  1.38    1497  1605  1.07

waveaddict
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May 25, 2012, 10:14:08 PM
 #1674

The Three Marketeers unite!
that actually has a nice ring to it Wink

What say you fellow marketeers?

Yes, please assume that moniker so the rest of us with sensibility can make use of "The Real Deal" and step away from the paper avalanche discussion Smiley

"sensibility"

interesting word choice. What exactly makes your argument any more sensible than mine. I am trying to be nice here. Why does every discussion in these forums end with this type of language which only turns people away. Is that your intent?

waveaddict
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May 25, 2012, 10:33:58 PM
 #1675

Bitcoin is still its own game.

It is poorly correlated with paper PM's.

It is poorly correlated with DXY.

Agreed.

Just like I (maybe we?) suspected, a need for liquidity would produce a drop-out in Au prices but then the interested big buyers (probably Sino-much) would put a floor under things.

I did not really expect the floor to be so vanishing personally.  I guess competition for the phyzzz continues to grow.  If I had dumped Au and just now glanced at the Au vs. USDX charts, I would be sitting in a warm pool of urine about now.

Yep, and that big buyer group includes the very institutions so railed against - JPM, Citi, HSBC, etc.

I would worry a little more about the Mr. Deflation who is hiding under the bed. Just because gold has gone up for a decade does not mean that it will continue to go up. There is a reason that most people lose money in the market; most people join a trend only after it has ended.

Where are most people now? Gold is the last thing most people are in, at least when it comes to the western world. That means half the world has yet to get in on the precious metal appreciation.

As I explained earlier in the thread, it takes mere seconds to type in an arbitrarily-large number, and perhaps a few minutes to days for that to make its way into the world financial system. Deflation doesn't occur that quickly because debt is often negotiated on and tied up in legal proceedings, so as long as there is belief/trust and dependency on the existing fiat system, inflation will outpace deflation.

Re-read that and ask yourself how deflation could possibly overwhelm monetary inflation that can occur nearly instantaneously without the base money being rejected.

In the first wave of the Euro crash towards 1.18-1.19 and possibly towards parity, PM will dive with the Euro at least to PAPER Gold 1,300

I swear, I'm going to have to figure out a way to automatically precede every quoted utterance of 'gold' with 'paper' when 'physical' isn't specified.


Let me guess: you have no clue then why physical PMs are going down in value right alongside paper PMs. I would consider arguing a point only when the evidence is on your side; it makes you look less like a disgruntled investor especially when you insult others who disagree with you.

Blitz­
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May 25, 2012, 10:36:45 PM
 #1676


The Three Marketeers unite!  "Muppet armies:  Let's roll."

---

Someone needs update the rather amusing picture of the three Bitcoin Consultancy bozos which popped up yesterday.


Here you go. It is remarkable that all of our paid analysts managed to agree on one thing. Shocked


"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
MatthewLM
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May 25, 2012, 11:04:11 PM
 #1677

If a falling Euro is bad for gold, it's counter intuitive.

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tvbcof
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May 25, 2012, 11:20:27 PM
 #1678


The Three Marketeers unite!  "Muppet armies:  Let's roll."

---

Someone needs update the rather amusing picture of the three Bitcoin Consultancy bozos which popped up yesterday.


Here you go. It is remarkable that all of our paid analysts managed to agree on one thing. Shocked



ROTFL!  Or my all-time favorite complements of chodpaba: "I think I pee'd a little."

C'mon Wave...lighten up.  It's all in good fun.  Us bugs are so silly in our own ways that it should not be a challenge to return the favor.  I promise I'll enjoy it just as much.


waveaddict
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May 25, 2012, 11:21:18 PM
 #1679

If a falling Euro is bad for gold, it's counter intuitive.

Falling Euro = Rising Dollar = Falling Gold. Think about it in this sequence.

waveaddict
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May 25, 2012, 11:27:59 PM
 #1680


The Three Marketeers unite!  "Muppet armies:  Let's roll."

---

Someone needs update the rather amusing picture of the three Bitcoin Consultancy bozos which popped up yesterday.


Here you go. It is remarkable that all of our paid analysts managed to agree on one thing. Shocked



ROTFL!  Or my all-time favorite complements of chodpaba: "I think I pee'd a little."

C'mon Wave...lighten up.  It's all in good fun.  Us bugs are so silly in our own ways that it should not be a challenge to return the favor.  I promise I'll enjoy it just as much.



 Smiley That's cool if it's in good fun. I'm just not here enough to know who is actually joking around, and even if I know, others who come here might not know. Just make sure to stress the 'joking' if jabs are thrown.

See, I know Blitz is joking around with the pic because I know Blitz. I do not know miscreanity, and his comment came off as insulting. If you were joking miscreanity, just try to make that point in the future.

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