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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1807743 times)
Technomage
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May 25, 2012, 11:32:19 PM
 #1681

It's really not that simple. The current troubles of the Euro are very serious and it means that more and more people are buying gold in Euro-countries. So while that formula is more or less correct, it does not take into account the fact that while all of this is happening gold is becoming king.

That's how I see it anyway. In fact from a long term perspective the current price situation of gold is very similar to what happened in 2008. Gold dipped and then continued its rise even faster than before (obviously because the ever worsening debt bubble requires printing presses to go faster and faster to be able to keep it up).

Even though Bitcoin is the future of money and much better than gold in many respects, gold is still the one to beat. While the Euro crisis gets more serious we will see this more evidently. The current gold dip will likely be temporary and lead to a bigger uptrend than we've ever seen.

This is my 2 cents. I could be totally wrong but I hope I'm not. Physical gold plays a big part in my savings strategy. I live in a country that is part of the Euro btw.

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Technomage
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May 25, 2012, 11:39:56 PM
 #1682

I'm not saying that gold couldn't dip a little more, it certainly could. I don't see Dollar/Euro parity as an option though, that is impossible. Euro will be game over way before it reaches parity.

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May 25, 2012, 11:47:45 PM
 #1683

How can anybody argue gold is not in a bubble with its parabolic graph?

Do you all really think this parabolic move is purely inflation, not appreciation?

This is without delving into my experience that everyone is sucking up the story of "paper is worthless, keep stacking for the inevitable collapse", producing armies of bagholders. Everyone is telling me how gold is the best and safest investment ever, I see lots of ads, etc.

My view is that the western world will never again revert to a gold or gold backed currency, therefore I view it as unlikely that the fantasy that everybody will come flocking to gold will come true.

Even in a total collapse, I would rather have food and water instead of gold.

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May 25, 2012, 11:49:28 PM
 #1684

I'm not saying that gold couldn't dip a little more, it certainly could. I don't see Dollar/Euro parity as an option though, that is impossible. Euro will be game over way before it reaches parity.

Rickards was saying with an air of certainty to not worry about the Euro, but that was 6 months or so ago.  And I never have convinced myself of exactly who/what he is.  Clearly he's a very smart and highly informed guy though.

Very recently Sinclair has proposed a counta-thesis that the Euro may not have as dark a future as conventional consensus seems to think.  Relative to the USD at any rate.

'Interesting times' is a bit cliche at this point.  'Desperate times?'  Dunno.  Could be.  I would not rule it out.


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May 25, 2012, 11:52:05 PM
 #1685

Euro could survive but I just don't think it'll be alive to see dollar parity, if it goes that way.

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May 26, 2012, 01:54:49 AM
 #1686


This is without delving into my experience that everyone is sucking up the story of "paper is worthless, keep stacking for the inevitable collapse", producing armies of bagholders. Everyone is telling me how gold is the best and safest investment ever, I see lots of ads, etc.

...  therefore I view it as unlikely that the fantasy that everybody will come flocking to gold will come true.
Huh Are you saying everyone is telling you the gold story ... but yet nobody has bought any? Clearly if everybody is on board, it's not a fantasy anymore.

How can anybody argue gold is not in a bubble with its parabolic graph?
Borrowing from some financial commentator: "if this gold market is a bubble, it's the most under-owned, most unloved bubble I've seen in my life time"

Even in a total collapse, I would rather have food and water instead of gold.
I'd rather to have both.
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May 26, 2012, 03:55:02 AM
 #1687


Even in a total collapse, I would rather have food and water instead of gold.
I'd rather to have both.


I follow David Stockman's simple ABCD investing strategy:

Quote
My investing model is ABCD: Anything Bernanke Cannot Destroy: flashlight batteries, canned beans, bottled water, gold, a cabin in the mountains.

The cabin in the mountain must have a computer for your Bitcoins of course  Grin
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May 26, 2012, 04:53:29 AM
 #1688

How can anybody argue gold is not in a bubble with its parabolic graph?

Do you all really think this parabolic move is purely inflation, not appreciation?

I suspect that we'll look back on things to this point and see that the bubble was starting to be able to be classified as one somewhere in this neighborhood.

I think that what we have is the gold starting from an abnormally depressed state.  I think it's starting to dawn on people that the ZIRP policies and general rigged nature of most of the other markets nullify the traditional arguments about gold being a liability in terms of wealth preservation.

One reason I don't think we've reached the point where the bubble pops (if history even shows that we are in one yet) is that it's still kind of a weirdo who has his dick-skinners on the phyzzz (though not nearly so much as one who holds BTC...)

I do expect that we'll have a bubble in Au at some point, and I'll try to sell every ounce when I believe it's going to pop.  (OK, I'll probably hold onto a few since they make good gifts.)

This is without delving into my experience that everyone is sucking up the story of "paper is worthless, keep stacking for the inevitable collapse", producing armies of bagholders. Everyone is telling me how gold is the best and safest investment ever, I see lots of ads, etc.

The targeting for what mainstream stuff I see seems to be at imbeciles who can (and sometimes do) pay double the spot price, or those who will buy ETFs.  Even some of the Glenn Beck watching mouth-breathers are probably starting to break even by this time so sometimes the money a fool parted with comes back to smack him I guess.

My view is that the western world will never again revert to a gold or gold backed currency, therefore I view it as unlikely that the fantasy that everybody will come flocking to gold will come true.

Fine by me.  Gold would have to more than half before it fails to do what I ask which is to preserve my purchasing power.  But I'm lucky...or something...

Even in a total collapse, I would rather have food and water instead of gold.

I figure I can get both rather easily if I have some gold, and getting there packing the gold would be a lot more feasible than packing food and water.  But hopefully we won't find out.

I think that you'll not find many people who will suggest being 'all in' PM's here.  This is a Bitcoin forum after all.  I'm very interested in anything with no counter-party risk, and Bitcoin fits this bill well in addition to it's other fascinating and powerful properties.  In my mind and in my portfolio, however, gold and property are very much my 'investment grade' assets while Bitcoin is very much on the speculative end of the spectrum.

Unlike a lot of people, it seems, I have some serious technical concerns about Bitcoin's implementation.  On the other hand, I put a lot more value on simply having private keys controlling representation in the block chain so it's a wash I guess.  Again, however, I have to view BTC as highly speculative.


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May 26, 2012, 06:02:02 AM
 #1689

If a falling Euro is bad for gold, it's counter intuitive.

Falling Euro = Rising Dollar = Falling Gold. Think about it in this sequence.

This^

         ... sequence is not being observed recently for whatever reason.

The presently observed pattern had been predicted however.  Along with theories about why it may be so.


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May 26, 2012, 02:53:56 PM
 #1690


The Three Marketeers unite!  "Muppet armies:  Let's roll."

---

Someone needs update the rather amusing picture of the three Bitcoin Consultancy bozos which popped up yesterday.


Here you go. It is remarkable that all of our paid analysts managed to agree on one thing. Shocked



ROTFL!  Or my all-time favorite complements of chodpaba: "I think I pee'd a little."

C'mon Wave...lighten up.  It's all in good fun.  Us bugs are so silly in our own ways that it should not be a challenge to return the favor.  I promise I'll enjoy it just as much.



 Smiley That's cool if it's in good fun. I'm just not here enough to know who is actually joking around, and even if I know, others who come here might not know. Just make sure to stress the 'joking' if jabs are thrown.

See, I know Blitz is joking around with the pic because I know Blitz. I do not know miscreanity, and his comment came off as insulting. If you were joking miscreanity, just try to make that point in the future.

waveaddict:  you best stay away from these parts.  it was insulting and if you continue to talk like you have been, not only will you be subject to more insults, but also laughs, jabs, needles, name calling, attacks, trolling, false accusations, jokes, etc.  i've come to be so desensitized that it doesn't bother me so much any more altho there are times when i want to rip my screen to pieces.  which is what a few of the gold bugs sense i'm sure and why they continue to troll me when they can.

and it won't matter if your reasoning is made to educate generally and not directed at any one person, as i try to do.  what matters to them is that you're challenging their basic economic foundations, assumptions, and financial choices which will work out terribly wrong for them in the future if you're correct.  for that, you'll be personally attacked.

sad but true.

so for your own sanity, stay away.
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May 26, 2012, 03:05:05 PM
 #1691

s a reason that most people lose money in the market; most people join a trend only after it has ended.

In the first wave of the Euro crash towards 1.18-1.19 and possibly towards parity, PM will dive with the Euro at least to PAPER Gold 1,300

I swear, I'm going to have to figure out a way to automatically precede every quoted utterance of 'gold' with 'paper' when 'physical' isn't specified.


There will in some point be a divergence between paper and physical gold, but initially both will fall, as people need to raise cash from gold bullion, coins, but especially jewellery, teeth gold, etc. just to survive.

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May 26, 2012, 03:07:51 PM
 #1692

s a reason that most people lose money in the market; most people join a trend only after it has ended.

In the first wave of the Euro crash towards 1.18-1.19 and possibly towards parity, PM will dive with the Euro at least to PAPER Gold 1,300

I swear, I'm going to have to figure out a way to automatically precede every quoted utterance of 'gold' with 'paper' when 'physical' isn't specified.


There will in some point be a divergence between paper and physical gold, but initially both will fall, as people need to raise cash from gold bullion, coins, but especially jewellery, teeth gold, etc. just to survive.

i agree.  i guess that makes us stooges though.
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May 26, 2012, 03:11:39 PM
 #1693

http://www.animated-teeth.com/dental_crowns/t-sell-scrap-dental-gold.htm
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May 26, 2012, 03:13:52 PM
 #1694

s a reason that most people lose money in the market; most people join a trend only after it has ended.

In the first wave of the Euro crash towards 1.18-1.19 and possibly towards parity, PM will dive with the Euro at least to PAPER Gold 1,300

I swear, I'm going to have to figure out a way to automatically precede every quoted utterance of 'gold' with 'paper' when 'physical' isn't specified.


There will in some point be a divergence between paper and physical gold, but initially both will fall, as people need to raise cash from gold bullion, coins, but especially jewellery, teeth gold, etc. just to survive.

... or from other assets like



or


BTCitcoin: An Idea Worth Saving - Q&A with bitcoins on rugatu.com - Check my rep
cypherdoc
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May 26, 2012, 03:17:05 PM
 #1695

lol, love the blue man!
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May 26, 2012, 03:20:56 PM
 #1696

can u say "breakout"?

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May 26, 2012, 06:08:58 PM
 #1697

so sell everything (including bitcoin?) and hold dollars?
 
thx

I'm not to concerned.  The way I have it figured, the US will do anything necessary to keep the USDX down and they have a variety of tools at their disposal.  I figure that the application of these tools will likely be good for gold.  Possibly also even better for Bitcoin.

I actually don't rule out the rationality of sitting on more USD in times like this than I otherwise would like to (where the 'otherwise' is near zero.)  One way or another though I would and will do my best to make sure I've to got access to a speedy and reliable way to dump ballast.


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May 26, 2012, 06:36:11 PM
 #1698

just so everyone sees this.  who the hell here can extrapolate?  seriously?:



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May 26, 2012, 06:49:55 PM
 #1699

AND, for those who believe in technical analysis:

btcchina price spike has blown up and THROUGH the top of the identically forming flat top ascending triangle that has been forming the last several months that i identified in my newsletter.

that's bullish.
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May 26, 2012, 06:51:49 PM
 #1700


waveaddict:  you best stay away from these parts.  it was insulting and if you continue to talk like you have been, not only will you be subject to more insults, but also laughs, jabs, needles, name calling, attacks, trolling, false accusations, jokes, etc.  i've come to be so desensitized that it doesn't bother me so much any more altho there are times when i want to rip my screen to pieces.  which is what a few of the gold bugs sense i'm sure and why they continue to troll me when they can.

and it won't matter if your reasoning is made to educate generally and not directed at any one person, as i try to do.  what matters to them is that you're challenging their basic economic foundations, assumptions, and financial choices which will work out terribly wrong for them in the future if you're correct.  for that, you'll be personally attacked.

sad but true.

so for your own sanity, stay away.

CD: You are the one who made this a 'gold vs. Bitcoin' thing where very few of those mistaken for 'PM bugs' on this thread seem to hold that opinion.  Cry me a river.

Wave:  Stick around please.  If you make logical arguments that are not patently myopic or self serving, history seems to indicate that they well considered and very likely will spark a lively and useful exploration.


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