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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806964 times)
Crypt_Current
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May 24, 2012, 06:56:06 AM
 #1641

Has anyone been noticing the biggish up-spikes on negligible volume at Gox? Looks like pressure is building for the makings of a breakout.

I have been seeing bad data—and Gox's market share erode...

I don't know if this means anything, but the Chaikin Volatility indicator spiked up along with those spikes...

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May 24, 2012, 08:12:56 AM
 #1642

I have been seeing bad data—and Gox's market share erode...

I'm guessing the market share loss is because of the recent ToS changes and the effect on Dwolla transfers.
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May 24, 2012, 08:43:57 AM
 #1643

I have been seeing bad data—and Gox's market share erode...

I'm guessing the market share loss is because of the recent ToS changes and the effect on Dwolla transfers.


not to mention the demise of bitcoinica, which made up for quite a bit of mtgox traffic.
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May 24, 2012, 12:58:54 PM
 #1644

Load "$",8,1

you definitely belong here

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May 24, 2012, 02:19:21 PM
 #1645

and as much as u think the Fed will allow this, i think the Fed will put a stop to this.

By doing what? By raiding demand deposit accounts of citizens because everything else has already been drained? By telling the BRICs that they'd better keep buying US debt - or else? By bombing brown people to keep the oil flowing?

The Fed is a big magician - a snake oil salesman. And he's outstayed his welcome.

The Fed will reinstate the USD as reserve by NOT easing.  If there's money to be made, people will fight to get their hands on it.  The heuristic of "always assume inflation" has worked fairly well for your entire life so far.  But, like any heuristic, there will be times it breaks down.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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May 24, 2012, 04:24:53 PM
 #1646







lol! Wink
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May 24, 2012, 04:27:09 PM
 #1647

Me likey how the PM's are behaving counter to the market today  Roll Eyes

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May 24, 2012, 06:48:48 PM
 #1648

The Fed will reinstate the USD as reserve by NOT easing.  If there's money to be made, people will fight to get their hands on it.  The heuristic of "always assume inflation" has worked fairly well for your entire life so far.  But, like any heuristic, there will be times it breaks down.

Yes, if the Fed were to instill restraint, the USD could remain the global reserve currency. However, that turns into a situation of the Fed against congress, the presidency, and eventually most of the world.

It isn't enough to look at what the Fed alone can do, but what other comparable forces are in play. The Fed has to fight immense demand for lax policy coming from several directions or wind up deflating the economy too quickly, pushing it toward a Greek scenario - or worse.

Maintaining fiscal responsibility requires effort from multiple parts of the US government, corporate America, the domestic population, and other nations' governments because of the reserve currency status - not just the Fed. Monetary policy can restrain to an extent, but there's arguably more pressure from other branches to continue profligacy, in addition to public outcry demanding short-term relief without understanding the consequences.

While the possibility exists for austerity/restraint, and it may be implemented for some period of time, it is not the most probable course that will be taken to completion. The give & take battle for the past 3-4 years has clearly been in favor of easing and business as usual over addressing structural decay in any meaningful way.

As an analogy, it's like thousands of people crossing a bridge every day for years and an engineering team discovering severe metal fatigue mid-span. Closing the bridge is unthinkable to those using it daily, but only so much repair can be done without a month-long closure. Political leadership can either approve the closure, forcing thousands of people into a forced vacation with many of them likely to go bankrupt because they live paycheck-to-paycheck, or authorize only minor repair that will keep the bridge open while escalating risk that it will fail at a later date.

Likewise, the Fed has been doing patchwork repair for decades when the structural problems needed to be properly handled. The probability of catastrophic failure has been increasing all the while, and now no amount of spit & duct tape will keep things together.

Put another way: if risk of bank failure were increasingly linearly by 1% per year for 99 years and nothing substantial were done to reverse it, there'd be a 100% chance of failure on the 100th year. The real problem is non-linear, and much worse than it seems.
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May 24, 2012, 09:36:35 PM
 #1649


General Comment: Gold's performance in relation to the USDX is startling and troubling today.
The upward move in BTC that I was anticipating remains something of a yawn.
(Same comments as yesterday.  Nothing much changed on any front.)

Another Score:  5/24/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     7.10         5.14       + 0.72
Gold    1514         1558      + 1.03

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago

day           ya-btc  btc  mult    ya-Au  Au    mult
2012-05-24  7.10  5.14  0.72    1514  1558  1.03
2012-05-23  7.10  5.13  0.72    1515  1562  1.03
2012-05-22  6.30  5.09  0.81    1512  1560  1.03
2012-05-21  5.90  5.10  0.86    1514  1590  1.05
2012-05-18  7.50  5.12  0.68    1497  1592  1.06    
2012-05-17  7.80  5.09  0.65    1480  1574  1.06            
2012-05-16  7.40  5.09  0.69    1495  1533  1.03
2012-05-15  6.80  5.03  0.74    1492  1545  1.04
2012-05-14  8.50  5.00  0.59    1495  1555  1.04
2012-05-12  5.40  4.95  0.92    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-11  5.00  4.95  0.99    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-10  3.82  4.90  1.28    1510  1593  1.05
2012-05-09  3.75  5.03  1.34    1510  1590  1.05
2012-05-08  3.64  5.03  1.38    1497  1605  1.07

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May 24, 2012, 10:05:12 PM
 #1650

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 5/24

Bitcoin 5.13   (down ~5%)

Gold 1558  (down ~8%)

BTC still isn't up .  Gold still hasn't collapsed.  BTC is slightly outperforming gold.


AAPL 565 
tvbcof
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May 24, 2012, 11:36:04 PM
 #1651

...
I've observed and helped develop business methods that seem counter-intuitive and costly at first, yet result in positive outcomes for all participants, leading me to a stance that what we think of as the state may be unnecessary. Judge.Me is one business that I recently became aware of, and happens to accept Bitcoin for payment.
...

That does not seem particularly counter-intuitive to me.  Sounds like a damn good idea which would probably work well in instance where two honest actors simply want a conclusion.  That probably covers a high percentage of disputes, particularly in business-land.

It bring back a flash of an idea I had some time ago.  Trying to dredge up the core aspects:

 - Overview:  an 'arbitration guild'

 - members serve as randomly selected arbitrators.
 - compensation is exclusively that they can use the service in their own disputes.
 - complete and enforced anonymity of arbitrators.
 - judgement binding in that the winner gets the key to locked bitcoin caches.
 - evidence presented publicly for peer review (of the arbitrator's performance mostly.  Very unlike judge.me and potentially a show-stopper for a lot of people's use cases.)

The idea would be that the guild would function fairly and would bestow credibility on it's members and confidence in doing business with them in addition to providing a valuable service for the members own needs if they are unfortunate enough to need them.

I do _not_ claim any ownership of these ideas.  If anyone wants to run with some of them I'd be delighted since I would appreciate such a service myself (if reasonably well implemented.)


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May 25, 2012, 12:12:31 AM
 #1652

...
I've observed and helped develop business methods that seem counter-intuitive and costly at first, yet result in positive outcomes for all participants, leading me to a stance that what we think of as the state may be unnecessary. Judge.Me is one business that I recently became aware of, and happens to accept Bitcoin for payment.
...

That does not seem particularly counter-intuitive to me.  Sounds like a damn good idea which would probably work well in instance where two honest actors simply want a conclusion.  That probably covers a high percentage of disputes, particularly in business-land.

It bring back a flash of an idea I had some time ago.  Trying to dredge up the core aspects:

 - Overview:  an 'arbitration guild'

 - members serve as randomly selected arbitrators.
 - compensation is exclusively that they can use the service in their own disputes.
 - complete and enforced anonymity of arbitrators.
 - judgement binding in that the winner gets the key to locked bitcoin caches.
 - evidence presented publicly for peer review (of the arbitrator's performance mostly.  Very unlike judge.me and potentially a show-stopper for a lot of people's use cases.)

The idea would be that the guild would function fairly and would bestow credibility on it's members and confidence in doing business with them in addition to providing a valuable service for the members own needs if they are unfortunate enough to need them.

I do _not_ claim any ownership of these ideas.  If anyone wants to run with some of them I'd be delighted since I would appreciate such a service myself (if reasonably well implemented.)




i just ran across this blog post.  now i understand better your hostilities towards my subscription service as well as our many other differences.  you'll find this interesting:


Bitcoin is Voluntarist, not Socialist
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May 25, 2012, 12:51:11 AM
 #1653


i just ran across this blog post.  now i understand better your hostilities towards my subscription service as well as our many other differences.  you'll find this interesting:

Bitcoin is Voluntarist, not Socialist

Actually about the only thing I have against your service is that I think it is questionable to place a high bet (as a percentage of net worth) on Bitcoin at this time and I think you are irresponsible for promoting this.  I'm not going to pay your fee to find out if your subscribers get different advice than what I feel you expound on in public.  I think you are very probably dead wrong about the safe harbor nature of gold and I honestly don't want to see third parties suffer for it though I really should not care.

To the extent that I attempt to irritate you publicly it is a reflection of what I feel you do to us 'gold bugs.'  I actually enjoy your jabs...especially the ones which land...and I enjoy dishing them out.  Cuz I'm a troll Smiley

One of the primary reasons I call myself a 'Socialist' is that it pisses me off that a long-running PR blitz has labeled certain political classifications with an unfair and derogatory connotation...and pisses me off even more that it's as effective as it is.  All that proves to me is that it is relatively easy to corral and herd a bunch of mouth-breathing retards.

I actually subscribe to a lot of the principles of which Libertarians claim as their own.  Every time I've been tempted to call myself a Libertarian, I hear some professed one open his yap on the internet or read some absurd screed like you've pointed to and it quashes any inclination I might have for another few years.


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May 25, 2012, 01:00:31 AM
 #1654


i just ran across this blog post.  now i understand better your hostilities towards my subscription service as well as our many other differences.  you'll find this interesting:

Bitcoin is Voluntarist, not Socialist

Actually about the only thing I have against your service is that I think it is questionable to place a high bet (as a percentage of net worth) on Bitcoin at this time and I think you are irresponsible for promoting this.  I'm not going to pay your fee to find out if your subscribers get different advice than what I feel you expound on in public.  I think you are very probably dead wrong about the safe harbor nature of gold and I honestly don't want to see third parties suffer for it though I really should not care.

uh, i don't remember expounding a a % of what i'd recommend putting into Bitcoin.  of course, i've posted "so much" that i may have forgotten.  care to provide a link?  or just another careless accusation?  sure i'm bullish on Bitcoin and recommend going long but i can say that for about 80% of the ppl around here.

Quote

To the extent that I attempt to irritate you publicly it is a reflection of what I feel you do to us 'gold bugs.'  I actually enjoy your jabs...especially the ones which land...and I enjoy dishing them out.  Cuz I'm a troll Smiley

ah, finally the truth! Cheesy
Quote

One of the primary reasons I call myself a 'Socialist' is that it pisses me off that a long-running PR blitz has labeled certain political classifications with an unfair and derogatory connotation...and pisses me off even more that it's as effective as it is.  All that proves to me is that it is relatively easy to corral and herd a bunch of mouth-breathing retards.

I actually subscribe to a lot of the principles of which Libertarians claim as their own.  Every time I've been tempted to call myself a Libertarian, I hear some professed one open his yap on the internet or read some absurd screed like you've pointed to and it quashes any inclination I might have for another few years.



this is precisely why i don't label myself as anything.  i'm just for what i deem is fair for all.
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May 25, 2012, 01:16:33 AM
 #1655


i just ran across this blog post.  now i understand better your hostilities towards my subscription service as well as our many other differences.  you'll find this interesting:

Bitcoin is Voluntarist, not Socialist

Actually about the only thing I have against your service is that I think it is questionable to place a high bet (as a percentage of net worth) on Bitcoin at this time and I think you are irresponsible for promoting this.  I'm not going to pay your fee to find out if your subscribers get different advice than what I feel you expound on in public.  I think you are very probably dead wrong about the safe harbor nature of gold and I honestly don't want to see third parties suffer for it though I really should not care.

uh, i don't remember expounding a a % of what i'd recommend putting into Bitcoin.  of course, i've posted "so much" that i may have forgotten.  care to provide a link?  or just another careless accusation?  sure i'm bullish on Bitcoin and recommend going long but i can say that for about 80% of the ppl around here.


No.  That's why I phrased things as I did.

But if everything else but Bitcoin is going to hell and Bitcoin is going to rocket, what exactly is your advice?  I have not heard you strongly suggest to sitting on a lot of cash in USD form even if some of your theories seem to indicate that that will rocket as well.

Quote
To the extent that I attempt to irritate you publicly it is a reflection of what I feel you do to us 'gold bugs.'  I actually enjoy your jabs...especially the ones which land...and I enjoy dishing them out.  Cuz I'm a troll Smiley

ah, finally the truth! Cheesy


I brag it up at every opportunity.  Personally I highly value a good troll.  A high-quality troll by necessity contains a kernel of truth...that's why it irritates people.

Quote
One of the primary reasons I call myself a 'Socialist' is that it pisses me off that a long-running PR blitz has labeled certain political classifications with an unfair and derogatory connotation...and pisses me off even more that it's as effective as it is.  All that proves to me is that it is relatively easy to corral and herd a bunch of mouth-breathing retards.

I actually subscribe to a lot of the principles of which Libertarians claim as their own.  Every time I've been tempted to call myself a Libertarian, I hear some professed one open his yap on the internet or read some absurd screed like you've pointed to and it quashes any inclination I might have for another few years.


this is precisely why i don't label myself as anything.  i'm just for what i deem is fair for all.

I see.  Often times people neglect to take a stand because they are chicken-shit Wink


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May 25, 2012, 03:00:15 PM
 #1656

omg, perfection!!



I give you... The golden iphone!!
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May 25, 2012, 03:47:44 PM
 #1657

omg, perfection!!



I give you... The golden iphone!!

then why aren't you long their stock! Cheesy
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May 25, 2012, 04:06:27 PM
 #1658

omg, perfection!!



I give you... The golden iphone!!

No one said you couldn't love a product yet hate the stock  Wink

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May 25, 2012, 06:31:25 PM
 #1659

That does not seem particularly counter-intuitive to me.  Sounds like a damn good idea which would probably work well in instance where two honest actors simply want a conclusion.  That probably covers a high percentage of disputes, particularly in business-land.

It bring back a flash of an idea I had some time ago.  Trying to dredge up the core aspects:

 - Overview:  an 'arbitration guild'

...

The idea would be that the guild would function fairly and would bestow credibility on it's members and confidence in doing business with them in addition to providing a valuable service for the members own needs if they are unfortunate enough to need them.

Judge.me is a refreshingly progressive business, not necessarily one that's counter-intuitive. The arbitration guild is intriguing and potentially doable with Bitcoin or double-blind tokens, although some of the "hows" might be a mite difficult to overcome, particularly arbitrator compensation (micro-payment stipends?) and specialization (law student participation?). It's kind of like a poor-man's version of Judge.me.

I actually subscribe to a lot of the principles of which Libertarians claim as their own.

I thought I sensed a lot of incongruity with contemporary socialism Smiley
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May 25, 2012, 06:46:51 PM
 #1660

Both Bitcoin and gold (& silver) are grinding upward. The dollar is all over the place, and the Euro is getting ever-closer to the breaching the $1.25 level. For the past few days, commodity currencies have not been dragged along with the Euro as tightly as they were in recent weeks.

Once Euro sub-$1.25 happens, I'm expecting a final panic sell-off in equities and forex into the end of May or early June; markets have been too controlled so far. Gold may be dragged a bit lower initially, but I don't think by much; I'm still looking for the $2,100 to $3,000 range to be hit in the next cycle.
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