Prechter clearly explains the deflationary view which is similar to mine. Being a Goldmoney sponsored event, Prechter goes easy on the anti-gold argument. He ultimately thinks it goes to $400-500 or so after this deflationary wave completes itself in the next few years. Only then would it be the time to buy gold/silver as he describes in his newsletters.When it comes to gold prognostication, there is not better poster-child for FAIL than Prechter
. It amazes me that he has the balls to utter the word at this time.
Yes, on gold he's laughably wrong; at least he's consistent about it and is also a signal for when to sell 10% of my holdings
On overwhelming deflation, he'll be right... eventually.
Early on, Prechter states that he thinks it would be a different situation if governments were dictatorships. Cue the NDAA and changes to the EU constitution. Dictatorial powers have effectively been granted to the collective leadership at the highest levels in both the EU and US. I'm not as aware of such legislation in Japan or other western nations, though there has been plenty to be concerned about from the bits I've read.
The Greek debt has effectively been defaulted on, but that hasn't eliminated confidence
in the Euro as a currency. Paper is still viewed as legitimate when it is the core of the problem. This debt supporting paper currencies is what thins the entire structure until it's too weak to stand on its own. However, even after the collapse is underway, familiarity with fiat can sustain the illusion
while gold continues rising.
Banks, like the cliff climbing analogy I used earlier, will keep going until the system is at a point of complete failure before deploying their golden parachute. Once they do that, it means the status quo is being upended. Human collectives are incredibly resilient and stubborn even under extreme duress - what we've seen so far has been getting close to an enormous breaking point, but it's still a ways off.
There are some good things that he points out:
"You don't want stocks, you don't want bonds..."
"The great buying opportunities have occurred after debt collapses..."
From 18-20 minutes
in, what Prechter says is absolutely correct:
"It [gold] allows a person to escape a debt-based money system. And even though currency values are going to fluctuate wildly, which will appear to be gold fluctuating wildly, but it won't be... as long as you have a pure money option, you could just opt-out and say 'I'm not going to play, and I don't want to be a speculator and try to figure it all out.'"
Beating HFT is a heart-attack waiting to happen. On your scales, playing the turns is great until the rules are changed overnight. There could be another MF Global on Monday, or worse - a bank holiday. Without gold, Bitcoin, or a select few other assets, capital controls could castrate you. Discarding the phyzzz means you have one less option when there are so few to begin with.
In the discussion about GoldMoney, the entire notion of being able to manage your physical metal assets easily and efficiently without having to carry it around touched on the very mechanism by which gold is headed toward reintegration with the monetary system. During that process, gold reasserts its function as money and stands with currencies - the only one that can't be directly mismanaged by authorities, and the only currency that rises when all of the others are falling (notable exceptions being Bitcoin, silver, etc).