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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804009 times)
bitcool
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June 05, 2012, 01:25:10 PM
 #1921

Difference between real money and debt money is one-bird-in-hand vs two-trillion-in-the-bushes.
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June 05, 2012, 02:30:44 PM
 #1922


While we're at it. lets dig up some IBM Selectrics to type up some invoices.

Hellz ya.  When you hit one of them keys you freaking felt the earth move Wink
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June 05, 2012, 02:50:03 PM
 #1923

Cover that 152 GLD short yet cypher? Wink

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 6/5

Bitcoin 5.40   (even)

Gold 1618  (down ~4%)

BTC is almost up!!! (3 months after the call  Wink )  Gold still hasn't collapsed.  BTC is slightly outperforming gold.


AAPL 562  (just a few more days)

GLD 157 (cypher is upside down on his short)
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June 05, 2012, 04:02:31 PM
 #1924

Cover that 152 GLD short yet cypher? Wink

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 6/5

Bitcoin 5.40   (even)

Gold 1618  (down ~4%)

BTC is almost up!!! (3 months after the call  Wink )  Gold still hasn't collapsed.  BTC is slightly outperforming gold.


AAPL 562  (just a few more days)

GLD 157 (cypher is upside down on his short)

not upside down yet since it was hedged with GDXJ.  flat.
miscreanity
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June 05, 2012, 05:57:46 PM
 #1925

not upside down yet since it was hedged with GDXJ.  flat.

Changing the rules/terms to suit your position? Bankertician Tongue

Use caution or a new thread might be created, making this one irrelevant Wink
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June 05, 2012, 05:59:11 PM
 #1926

not upside down yet since it was hedged with GDXJ.  flat.

Changing the rules/terms to suit your position? Bankertician Tongue

Use caution or a new thread might be created, making this one irrelevant Wink

lol, how so?
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June 05, 2012, 06:14:48 PM
 #1927


General Comment: USDX: now @ 82.90.  Had trended down to sub-82.5, but shot up recently.

Another Score:  6/05/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     17.50        5.43      + 0.31
Gold    1545         1617      + 1.05

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-06-01zeg2011-06-03ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago

day           ya-btc  btc  mult    ya-Au  Au    mult
2012-06-05 17.50  5.43  0.31   1545  1617  1.05
2012-06-01  8.80  5.25  0.60    1542  1614  1.05
2012-05-25  7.30  5.15  0.71    1528  1574  1.03
2012-05-24  7.10  5.14  0.72    1514  1558  1.03
2012-05-23  7.10  5.13  0.72    1515  1562  1.03
2012-05-22  6.30  5.09  0.81    1512  1560  1.03
2012-05-21  5.90  5.10  0.86    1514  1590  1.05
2012-05-18  7.50  5.12  0.68    1497  1592  1.06    
2012-05-17  7.80  5.09  0.65    1480  1574  1.06            
2012-05-16  7.40  5.09  0.69    1495  1533  1.03
2012-05-15  6.80  5.03  0.74    1492  1545  1.04
2012-05-14  8.50  5.00  0.59    1495  1555  1.04
2012-05-12  5.40  4.95  0.92    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-11  5.00  4.95  0.99    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-10  3.82  4.90  1.28    1510  1593  1.05
2012-05-09  3.75  5.03  1.34    1510  1590  1.05
2012-05-08  3.64  5.03  1.38    1497  1605  1.07

miscreanity
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June 05, 2012, 06:33:57 PM
 #1928

lol, how so?

Hedging has not been part of the updates, as they've been using unary pricing based in USD, not aggregate positions. Otherwise, it could be said that Bitcoin or gold prices haven't moved because a sufficient holding of dollars offset their declines.

Your GLD short as stated in this thread is in the red, sans hedging. Adding hedging changed the accounting rules in your favor. That's what bankers & politicians do to cover their asses, so don't be a bankstertician.
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June 05, 2012, 06:37:45 PM
 #1929

lol, how so?

Hedging has not been part of the updates, as they've been using unary pricing based in USD, not aggregate positions. Otherwise, it could be said that Bitcoin or gold prices haven't moved because a sufficient holding of dollars offset their declines.

Your GLD short as stated in this thread is in the red, sans hedging. Adding hedging changed the accounting rules in your favor. That's what bankers & politicians do to cover their asses, so don't be a bankstertician.

what updates?

well excuse me for having to maintain strict accounting with the likes of you.  as i recall, you claimed you did alot of hedging with puts last summer when gold and silver took the initial dive.  but that's ok?

nice try on trying to make me look bad.
miscreanity
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June 05, 2012, 07:26:02 PM
 #1930

what updates?

These updates:

Cover that 152 GLD short yet cypher? Wink

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 6/5

Bitcoin 5.40   (even)

Gold 1618  (down ~4%)

BTC is almost up!!! (3 months after the call  Wink )  Gold still hasn't collapsed.  BTC is slightly outperforming gold.


AAPL 562  (just a few more days)

GLD 157 (cypher is upside down on his short)

not upside down yet since it was hedged with GDXJ.  flat.

152-157=-5

Claiming the -5 doesn't count because you held GDXJ doesn't change the GLD holding. There's nothing wrong with hedging, but it's erroneous to compare a single instrument position to a hedged position out of context. Doubling up on the GLD short stays within GLD and remains valid for comparison with the information above.

If you want to add GDXJ to the list on its own and derive values from that, go ahead.

DateGLD(S)GDXJ(L)
5/31152.0019.00
6/4157.0021.00
-5.00+2.00
-3.2%+10.5%

So from that, you would've had to hold ~1/3rd of your GLD position in GDXJ to offset the GLD short, unless you were trading options; not a clean apples to apples comparison.
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June 05, 2012, 07:33:48 PM
 #1931

what updates?

These updates:

Cover that 152 GLD short yet cypher? Wink

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 6/5

Bitcoin 5.40   (even)

Gold 1618  (down ~4%)

BTC is almost up!!! (3 months after the call  Wink )  Gold still hasn't collapsed.  BTC is slightly outperforming gold.


AAPL 562  (just a few more days)

GLD 157 (cypher is upside down on his short)

not upside down yet since it was hedged with GDXJ.  flat.

152-157=-5

Claiming the -5 doesn't count because you held GDXJ doesn't change the GLD holding. There's nothing wrong with hedging, but it's erroneous to compare a single instrument position to a hedged position out of context. Doubling up on the GLD short stays within GLD and remains valid for comparison with the information above.

If you want to add GDXJ to the list on its own and derive values from that, go ahead.

DateGLD(S)GDXJ(L)
5/31152.0019.00
6/4157.0021.00
-5.00+2.00
-3.2%+10.5%

So from that, you would've had to hold ~1/3rd of your GLD position in GDXJ to offset the GLD short, unless you were trading options; not a clean apples to apples comparison.

you're a piece of work.  those aren't my updates, they're silverbox's who freely admits he cherry picks.

so what's your point?  if it's that i lost money in the short term shorting GLD, wrong, b/c of the GDXJ long hedge.  

none of this changes my bearish position on gold, either.  pm's have had a nice counter trend bounce after which i'm betting they go down.  ok, so?

and your initial point was that hedging was somehow not playing by the rules.  what rules?  this is a forum.  you're lucky i've even bothered to share what i'm doing.  or perhaps i should be opaque like you?  and you in fact did buy puts on pm's last summer.  don't make me go back and find the quote.

edit:   maybe we ought to tally up silverbox's score on his gold miners and point to that as some sort of evidence?
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June 05, 2012, 07:52:22 PM
 #1932


you're a piece of work.  those aren't my updates, they're silverbox's who freely admits he cherry picks.
...

Are you sure that was not me you are thinking of here?  I did 'freely admit cherry-picking' in my reports once, but had to be somewhat misleading just to annoy someone.  As I had explained earlier and as apparently the other person had not stumbled upon, the yearly marker is not exactly an arbitrary selection.  Nor is SB's start of this thread.  (Nor would be the point when you did your 'Gold: I smell a trap' post.)   

This is not to say that I didn't strongly suspect that the year marker would make BTC look like shit.  I did of course.  What I don't know is for how long and also if/when it will make Au look like (slightly more palatable) shit as well.

You could get out in front of things and make 6-mo reports.  And with some legitimacy under the argument that everyone should be thinking about BTC as a short-ish term play (if that's the way you feel about it anyway.)


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June 05, 2012, 08:08:42 PM
 #1933

so what's your point?  if it's that i lost money in the short term shorting GLD, wrong, b/c of the GDXJ long hedge.  

The only point I was making is that comparing a single position with an aggregate holding is misleading. You responded to silverbox's update on GLD with a GLD/GDXJ combination (in response to whether you covered or not, which is all well and good - but you are upside down with GLD alone) - not a valid comparison without noting the disparity. A system with integrated graphics could be compared to one with a discrete GPU, but it wouldn't be meaningful without noting the contextual distinction.

Yes I'm splitting hairs here a bit over a semantic issue, but I'm glad you had a hedge in place. I'd be even more glad for you if you had physical metal Smiley
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June 05, 2012, 08:09:53 PM
 #1934

so what's your point?  if it's that i lost money in the short term shorting GLD, wrong, b/c of the GDXJ long hedge.  

The only point I was making is that comparing a single position with an aggregate holding is misleading. You responded to silverbox's update on GLD with a GLD/GDXJ combination (in response to whether you covered or not, which is all well and good - but you are upside down with GLD alone) - not a valid comparison without noting the disparity. A system with integrated graphics could be compared to one with a discrete GPU, but it wouldn't be meaningful without noting the contextual distinction.

Yes I'm splitting hairs here a bit over a semantic issue, but I'm glad you had a hedge in place. I'd be even more glad for you if you had physical metal Smiley

ok fair enough.  but don't forget i made money on the GDXJ if you insist on putting it that way. Cheesy

in my mind it was just a wash.
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June 05, 2012, 08:37:33 PM
 #1935

ok fair enough.  but don't forget i made money on the GDXJ if you insist on putting it that way. Cheesy

If you left the hedge on, you could've at least done well with the spread when the miners rise faster than gold Smiley

Jim Rickards says it best.

Quote from: Jim Rickards
Gold remains the 8,000 ton gorilla in the room; the thing that is too big to ignore but that no one wants to discuss. The international monetary system and the role of the dollar are in dire straits even if all of the gold is where it is supposed to be. It is not necessary to fantasize about phantom gold in order to see that a monetary crisis is imminent. The Fed and Treasury refusal to audit gold is part of their painstaking effort to deny that gold is still at the heart of the system. No more elaborate explanation is required.

Once you start pulling the derivative thread, the whole illusory system comes unraveled...
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June 05, 2012, 08:51:56 PM
 #1936

Hi all, I'm looking for some advice - I have some more fiat to invest and I've been racking my brain on where to put it. I'm new to Bitcoin but I've been buying heavily for the last 2 months. I already have decent physical gold and silver stacks. Here are the choices I've narrowed it down to:

1) More Bitcoin (though I have to admit I am hesitant to let my Bitcoin investment get into 5 figures)

2) More physical gold (I'm leaning towards this right now)

3) Mining shares (you know, the ones that the people on KWN are always saying are going to the moon)

4) Managed forex account (I know 90% of them are just scams, but I was hoping there are a couple of legitimate ones out there that could return at least 10% a year. If anyone knows of any, please share.)

All opinions are greatly appreciated!
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June 05, 2012, 09:04:11 PM
 #1937

Hi all, I'm looking for some advice - I have some more fiat to invest and I've been racking my brain on where to put it. I'm new to Bitcoin but I've been buying heavily for the last 2 months. I already have decent physical gold and silver stacks. Here are the choices I've narrowed it down to:

1) More Bitcoin (though I have to admit I am hesitant to let my Bitcoin investment get into 5 figures)

2) More physical gold (I'm leaning towards this right now)

3) Mining shares (you know, the ones that the people on KWN are always saying are going to the moon)

4) Managed forex account (I know 90% of them are just scams, but I was hoping there are a couple of legitimate ones out there that could return at least 10% a year. If anyone knows of any, please share.)

All opinions are greatly appreciated!

Invest some of your bitcoin on GLBSE, then you can buy more without breaching 10k.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
tvbcof
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June 05, 2012, 09:45:23 PM
 #1938

Hi all, I'm looking for some advice - I have some more fiat to invest and I've been racking my brain on where to put it. I'm new to Bitcoin but I've been buying heavily for the last 2 months. I already have decent physical gold and silver stacks. Here are the choices I've narrowed it down to:

1) More Bitcoin (though I have to admit I am hesitant to let my Bitcoin investment get into 5 figures)

2) More physical gold (I'm leaning towards this right now)

3) Mining shares (you know, the ones that the people on KWN are always saying are going to the moon)

4) Managed forex account (I know 90% of them are just scams, but I was hoping there are a couple of legitimate ones out there that could return at least 10% a year. If anyone knows of any, please share.)

All opinions are greatly appreciated!

Real Estate?  I diversified into that last year when I thought the prices had gotten close to fair even though I suspected some more downdrafts.  It's already given my a 5% on my principle return via rental...and I only got it rented in Sept (though to be fair I've not factored in taxes and insurance so It's probably closer to 3%.)   But I got an office to use as well which I needed.

OTOH, if I'd not been busy with that, I probably would have been pursuing Bitcoin in the Feb/March timeframe and who knows where I'd be sitting now.  I bet I would have sat out the peak of the bubble like an idiot though.


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June 05, 2012, 09:55:11 PM
 #1939

Hi all, I'm looking for some advice - I have some more fiat to invest and I've been racking my brain on where to put it. I'm new to Bitcoin but I've been buying heavily for the last 2 months. I already have decent physical gold and silver stacks. Here are the choices I've narrowed it down to:

1) More Bitcoin (though I have to admit I am hesitant to let my Bitcoin investment get into 5 figures)

2) More physical gold (I'm leaning towards this right now)

3) Mining shares (you know, the ones that the people on KWN are always saying are going to the moon)

4) Managed forex account (I know 90% of them are just scams, but I was hoping there are a couple of legitimate ones out there that could return at least 10% a year. If anyone knows of any, please share.)

All opinions are greatly appreciated!

Real Estate?  I diversified into that last year when I thought the prices had gotten close to fair even though I suspected some more downdrafts.  It's already given my a 5% on my principle return via rental...and I only got it rented in Sept (though to be fair I've not factored in taxes and insurance so It's probably closer to 3%.)   But I got an office to use as well which I needed.

OTOH, if I'd not been busy with that, I probably would have been pursuing Bitcoin in the Feb/March timeframe and who knows where I'd be sitting now.  I bet I would have sat out the peak of the bubble like an idiot though.



in the same vane, what are u guys doing with your bank savings accts that exceed the maximum covered by the FDIC?  i think the coverage limits are going to be taken down later this year, IIRC.
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June 05, 2012, 09:57:11 PM
 #1940

Hi all, I'm looking for some advice - I have some more fiat to invest and I've been racking my brain on where to put it. I'm new to Bitcoin but I've been buying heavily for the last 2 months. I already have decent physical gold and silver stacks. Here are the choices I've narrowed it down to:

1) More Bitcoin (though I have to admit I am hesitant to let my Bitcoin investment get into 5 figures)

2) More physical gold (I'm leaning towards this right now)

3) Mining shares (you know, the ones that the people on KWN are always saying are going to the moon)

4) Managed forex account (I know 90% of them are just scams, but I was hoping there are a couple of legitimate ones out there that could return at least 10% a year. If anyone knows of any, please share.)

All opinions are greatly appreciated!

Sounds like you have enuf invested.

Buy a fun toy, something that might be handy in bad times..  Firearms, off road vehicles, snowmobiles, RV's, Boats, Property with a Cabin on it..  
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