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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1806860 times)
cypherdoc
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June 01, 2012, 03:31:30 PM
 #1821

Kaboom:


What an insane market this is.

Godamnit!  I only had days to go before wanting the do that USD->PM conversion.  I figured I would not be so lucky.  Maybe we could get just one more stomach churning plunge in PM's.

I had expected the USDX to need to drop more to produce an upward move in PM's at this scale.  As I look just now, it's only dropped to 82.70.  A lot of gold bugs might be very happy indeed when it gets back down into the mid 70's.  Unless they, like I, wish to do some more accumulation that is.



oh, you'll get your chance.  just make sure this isn't deflation we've entered into.  might want to wait until its triple digits again.

I suspect I'll be playing it safe vis-a-vis PMs and get the phyzzz while I can.  I may go ahead and sit on a little more cash than I would ordinarily as a hedge against deflation (and with the hope that it impacts valuations more or less as classical theory indicates...)



what's this phyzzz you keep talking about?
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June 01, 2012, 03:35:30 PM
 #1822


So central banks will stand idly by as economies crumble, financial systems catastrophically fail, and riots or potentially civil wars break out?

Which route destroys the central banks sooner: crushing deflation into guaranteed chaos or continued inflation toward an indeterminate breaking point (after which crushing deflation ensues)? Both destroy banks, but the latter delays the inevitable for a longer period than the former. Banks will not be suicidal; they'll try to survive in any way they can.

I like analogies. Imagine you've decided to climb a 100m vertical cliff. From the top there's a gradual descent on the other side to ground level. Half-way up, you're exhausted. Do you:
  • A. Keep climbing no matter what, hoping that your body doesn't give out before reaching the top or;
  • B. Give up and let go, falling to your death

I would not rule out the possibility that those who have the capability would deploy their 'golden parachute' and save their own asses on a personal level.  The people who would be making these kinds of decisions on behalf of the rest of us are probably, as a group, as capable as any of arranging such an option.


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June 01, 2012, 03:37:27 PM
 #1823


So central banks will stand idly by as economies crumble, financial systems catastrophically fail, and riots or potentially civil wars break out?

Which route destroys the central banks sooner: crushing deflation into guaranteed chaos or continued inflation toward an indeterminate breaking point (after which crushing deflation ensues)? Both destroy banks, but the latter delays the inevitable for a longer period than the former. Banks will not be suicidal; they'll try to survive in any way they can.

I like analogies. Imagine you've decided to climb a 100m vertical cliff. From the top there's a gradual descent on the other side to ground level. Half-way up, you're exhausted. Do you:
  • A. Keep climbing no matter what, hoping that your body doesn't give out before reaching the top or;
  • B. Give up and let go, falling to your death

I would not rule out the possibility that those who have the capability would deploy their 'golden parachute' and save their own asses on a personal level.  The people who would be making these kinds of decisions on behalf of the rest of us are probably, as a group, as capable as any of arranging such an option.



deflation is winning.  the best they can hope for is "managed deflation".
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June 01, 2012, 03:37:49 PM
 #1824

I suspect I'll be playing it safe vis-a-vis PMs and get the phyzzz while I can.
what's this phyzzz you keep talking about?

miscreanity's bastardization of 'physical' as in physical bullion in hand.  I liked it.


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June 01, 2012, 03:38:03 PM
 #1825

I really for the life of me can't understand how such price jumps or drops are possible. I mean WTF, who would be so stupid to just dump their assets and crash the price like that? I don't get it..



well, me for one.  i put on a huge GLD short at $152.17 Grin

yes, you can put that one in the record too.

recorded!

You might regret this one Wink

You cover yet?? Wink
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June 01, 2012, 03:41:19 PM
 #1826

Well seeing as how gold just had a itty bitty rise..

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 6/1

Bitcoin 5.25   (down ~3%)

Gold 1613  (down ~5%)

BTC still isn't up .  Gold still hasn't collapsed.  BTC is slightly outperforming gold.


AAPL 567  (only one week to go) 
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June 01, 2012, 03:44:37 PM
 #1827

Well seeing as how gold just had a itty bitty rise..

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 6/1

Bitcoin 5.25   (down ~3%)

Gold 1613  (down ~5%)

BTC still isn't up .  Gold still hasn't collapsed.  BTC is slightly outperforming gold.


AAPL 567  (only one week to go) 


lol, the cherry picker  Wink
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June 01, 2012, 03:46:47 PM
 #1828

I still think gold will do relatively well in a deflationary environment. The time it does bad would be when over asset classes are undervalued and gold is overvalued and when the economic situation is stable.

I talked to someone from Gold Insight, the deal is a 10%-20% discount on gold doré bars from the London PM fix plus approximately $150 (£100) delivery charge with 6-12 months delivery time. Good deal if you can wait 6-12 months. Before I can consider this I need to think about how much cash I will need and what my earnings will be since I will almost certainly need cash before 12 months so I need to figure how much of the investments must be liquid in this time. Maybe I should actually try investing in bitcoin. What do people use to keep large amounts of bitcoins safe? Offline wallets using bitcoin Armory? Online Javascript wallets with offline back-up?

Also I hope gold goes back down a bit if I want to buy. I also need money to fall from the sky. That would make things easier.  Grin

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well, me for one.  i put on a huge GLD short at $152.17

I'm assuming an additional digit goes before the decimal point? I respect you put your money where you mouth is, but I think you are insane.  Smiley

I hope we are all wrong and gold goes sideways forever so we can all laugh.

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June 01, 2012, 03:46:58 PM
 #1829

I really for the life of me can't understand how such price jumps or drops are possible. I mean WTF, who would be so stupid to just dump their assets and crash the price like that? I don't get it..



well, me for one.  i put on a huge GLD short at $152.17 Grin

yes, you can put that one in the record too.

recorded!

You might regret this one Wink

You cover yet?? Wink

actually no.  i'm way in the green today with my stock shorts (Apple  Wink) AND my subscribers know i had a GDXJ long hedge position on that i just sold (hope i don't regret that!).

and then i added to my gold/silver shorts this AM, lol!
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June 01, 2012, 03:51:46 PM
 #1830


General Comment: USDX: now @ 82.70

Another Score:  6/01/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     8.80         5.25       + 0.60
Gold    1542         1614      + 1.05

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-06-01zeg2011-06-03ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago

day           ya-btc  btc  mult    ya-Au  Au    mult
2012-06-01  8.80  5.25  0.60    1542  1614  1.05
2012-05-25  7.30  5.15  0.71    1528  1574  1.03
2012-05-24  7.10  5.14  0.72    1514  1558  1.03
2012-05-23  7.10  5.13  0.72    1515  1562  1.03
2012-05-22  6.30  5.09  0.81    1512  1560  1.03
2012-05-21  5.90  5.10  0.86    1514  1590  1.05
2012-05-18  7.50  5.12  0.68    1497  1592  1.06    
2012-05-17  7.80  5.09  0.65    1480  1574  1.06            
2012-05-16  7.40  5.09  0.69    1495  1533  1.03
2012-05-15  6.80  5.03  0.74    1492  1545  1.04
2012-05-14  8.50  5.00  0.59    1495  1555  1.04
2012-05-12  5.40  4.95  0.92    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-11  5.00  4.95  0.99    1505  1580  1.05
2012-05-10  3.82  4.90  1.28    1510  1593  1.05
2012-05-09  3.75  5.03  1.34    1510  1590  1.05
2012-05-08  3.64  5.03  1.38    1497  1605  1.07

cypherdoc
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June 01, 2012, 03:53:45 PM
 #1831

I still think gold will do relatively well in a deflationary environment. The time it does bad would be when over asset classes are undervalued and gold is overvalued and when the economic situation is stable.

I talked to someone from Gold Insight, the deal is a 10%-20% discount on gold doré bars from the London PM fix plus approximately $150 (£100) delivery charge with 6-12 months delivery time. Good deal if you can wait 6-12 months. Before I can consider this I need to think about how much cash I will need and what my earnings will be since I will almost certainly need cash before 12 months so I need to figure how much of the investments must be liquid in this time. Maybe I should actually try investing in bitcoin. What do people use to keep large amounts of bitcoins safe? Offline wallets using bitcoin Armory? Online Javascript wallets with offline back-up?

amazing you don't have any Bitcoin after trolling me so long.  Armory is definitely the way to go.

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Also I hope gold goes back down a bit if I want to buy. I also need money to fall from the sky. That would make things easier.  Grin

Quote
well, me for one.  i put on a huge GLD short at $152.17

I'm assuming an additional digit goes before the decimal point? I respect you put your money where you mouth is, but I think you are insane.  Smiley

I hope we are all wrong and gold goes sideways forever so we can all laugh.

thank gaud i had a GDXJ long hedge on.  just took it down.  hope i don't regret that.
cypherdoc
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June 01, 2012, 03:56:14 PM
 #1832

Well seeing as how gold just had a itty bitty rise..

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 6/1

Bitcoin 5.25   (down ~3%)

Gold 1613  (down ~5%)

BTC still isn't up .  Gold still hasn't collapsed.  BTC is slightly outperforming gold.


AAPL 567  (only one week to go)  


the Apple bet doesn't look good for me but i still have a chance this coming week especially since we've broke down below the consolidation in stocks.

if the Mandarins don't want gold/silver to take off to the Moon and take over as the world's reserve currency, they're gonna have to let Apple crash to pull pm's back down after today's move.  pretty please?  Cheesy
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June 01, 2012, 04:04:58 PM
 #1833

got shorts on GG and SLW too now.
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June 01, 2012, 04:07:02 PM
 #1834

I still think gold will do relatively well in a deflationary environment. The time it does bad would be when over asset classes are undervalued and gold is overvalued and when the economic situation is stable.

I talked to someone from Gold Insight, the deal is a 10%-20% discount on gold doré bars from the London PM fix plus approximately $150 (£100) delivery charge with 6-12 months delivery time. Good deal if you can wait 6-12 months. Before I can consider this I need to think about how much cash I will need and what my earnings will be since I will almost certainly need cash before 12 months so I need to figure how much of the investments must be liquid in this time. Maybe I should actually try investing in bitcoin. What do people use to keep large amounts of bitcoins safe? Offline wallets using bitcoin Armory? Online Javascript wallets with offline back-up?

Also I hope gold goes back down a bit if I want to buy. I also need money to fall from the sky. That would make things easier.  Grin

Quote
well, me for one.  i put on a huge GLD short at $152.17

I'm assuming an additional digit goes before the decimal point? I respect you put your money where you mouth is, but I think you are insane.  Smiley

I hope we are all wrong and gold goes sideways forever so we can all laugh.

GLD is an ETF, its value per share is not the same as a troy ounce of gold.  Its ~156 atm.  Cypher is upside down on his short, he can cover here with a small loss or sit on it and hope it goes lower..  

If you want to invest in PM's and have it liquid, buy ETF's or Miners..  Physical IMO is best for a long term investment.
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June 01, 2012, 04:09:16 PM
 #1835

What do people use to keep large amounts of bitcoins safe? Offline wallets using bitcoin Armory? Online Javascript wallets with offline back-up?

I have mine in brainwallet.
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June 01, 2012, 04:16:52 PM
 #1836

I do have bitcoin... about 1.3 bitcoins... all of it donated, won, or from the faucets. The thing that has kept me back from buying is largely the security aspect, also MtGox was really expensive but isn't as much anymore. I still don't trust it very much because of the security issues it has had. What do people say about Intersango or any other exchanges?

Better get them while they are still around $5.

@silverbox: Might as well put my liquid investments into something like bitcoin is what I am saying. Also I have some money in ETFs and was some in stocks last year (but not now) but now my the broker I use is introducing an annoying quarterly fee. I just want a trading commission! :-(

And yes, having an investment tied up for xyz months may seem risky but when considering the discount you are immediately in the green and you would only do so if you were happy the price would be up by xyz months. The important consideration past this is the required liquidity.

You can always hedge the position as well.

What do people use to keep large amounts of bitcoins safe? Offline wallets using bitcoin Armory? Online Javascript wallets with offline back-up?

I have mine in brainwallet.

Keep your brain safe. Look both ways when crossing roads etc.

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June 01, 2012, 04:22:08 PM
 #1837

Also Nautilus Minerals announces potential delay to vessel build: http://www.nautilusminerals.com/s/Media-NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=528418&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Nautilus-identifies-potential-delay-to-Vessel-Build

And more seriously: http://www.nautilusminerals.com/s/Media-NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=528424&_Type=News-Releases&_Title=Nautilus-dispute-with-the-State-of-PNG

Down over 20%. Knew there would be issues along the way.

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cypherdoc
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June 01, 2012, 04:29:50 PM
 #1838

I do have bitcoin... about 1.3 bitcoins... all of it donated, won, or from the faucets. The thing that has kept me back from buying is largely the security aspect, also MtGox was really expensive but isn't as much anymore. I still don't trust it very much because of the security issues it has had. What do people say about Intersango or any other exchanges?

Better get them while they are still around $5.


i've always used just mtgox.  wire them money, buy Bitcoins, and immediately transfer them to offline wallet.  pretty safe.  glad to hear the fees are better now.
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June 01, 2012, 04:34:11 PM
 #1839

It was mostly the bank transfer fees. They used to be ridiculous from what I remember.

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June 01, 2012, 04:51:41 PM
 #1840

It was mostly the bank transfer fees. They used to be ridiculous from what I remember.

that'll never change.
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