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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804592 times)
YoYa
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June 12, 2012, 09:16:52 PM
 #2021

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“We’re getting requests from people literally saying, can we mail you euros [for bitcoins]? We can’t do that legally, but they keep asking.”

.... Smell's like marketing.

I'm not complaining, but hey, let call it what it is. I can see value for bitcoin in contexts other than protecting your assets within the Eurozone, and I'm not discounting bitcoin as a lesser hedge, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.
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molecular
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June 12, 2012, 09:34:50 PM
 #2022

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“We’re getting requests from people literally saying, can we mail you euros [for bitcoins]? We can’t do that legally, but they keep asking.”

.... Smell's like marketing.

I'm not complaining, but hey, let call it what it is. I can see value for bitcoin in contexts other than protecting your assets within the Eurozone, and I'm not discounting bitcoin as a lesser hedge, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.


yoya, all your posts cause cognitive dissonance with me. I know the guy in the photo is not you, but my brain is trying to associate the photo with what you write and that usually causes a conflict.

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silverbox
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June 12, 2012, 09:35:55 PM
 #2023

Quote
“We’re getting requests from people literally saying, can we mail you euros [for bitcoins]? We can’t do that legally, but they keep asking.”

.... Smell's like marketing.

I'm not complaining, but hey, let call it what it is. I can see value for bitcoin in contexts other than protecting your assets within the Eurozone, and I'm not discounting bitcoin as a lesser hedge, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.


yoya, all your posts cause cognitive dissonance with me. I know the guy in the photo is not you, but my brain is trying to associate the photo with what you write and that usually causes a conflict.

YoYa is the lil green guy?
molecular
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June 12, 2012, 09:37:23 PM
 #2024

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“We’re getting requests from people literally saying, can we mail you euros [for bitcoins]? We can’t do that legally, but they keep asking.”

.... Smell's like marketing.

I'm not complaining, but hey, let call it what it is. I can see value for bitcoin in contexts other than protecting your assets within the Eurozone, and I'm not discounting bitcoin as a lesser hedge, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.


yoya, all your posts cause cognitive dissonance with me. I know the guy in the photo is not you, but my brain is trying to associate the photo with what you write and that usually causes a conflict.

YoYa is the lil green guy?

didn't even think of that... I'll try that... thanks.

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miscreanity
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June 12, 2012, 11:05:31 PM
 #2025

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“We’re getting requests from people literally saying, can we mail you euros [for bitcoins]? We can’t do that legally, but they keep asking.”

.... Smell's like marketing.

I'm not complaining, but hey, let call it what it is. I can see value for bitcoin in contexts other than protecting your assets within the Eurozone, and I'm not discounting bitcoin as a lesser hedge, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

Yes, it won't be as rapid as many hope, but it's become an irreversible process. As soon as the panic pendulum swings away from the Euro and toward another, perhaps the GBP or USD, another wave of capital will flow into Bitcoin while the EU fears ease.
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June 13, 2012, 04:10:06 AM
 #2026

HKMex update:

Both gold and silver contracts have hit record open interest levels for the exchange. The equivalent in gold is now just over 2,200 COMEX contracts, or 220,000 ounces. Silver contract size is the same at 1,000 oz per contract, for 1,700,000 ounces.

I suspect that former participants in the COMEX are starting to shift to other exchanges like the HKMex and possibly the ICE for various products such as oil. This has two primary effects - first, it erodes control over the precious metals and other real assets currently held by the COMEX/LMA. Second, it undermines confidence in the major exchanges, which can result in an exodus of participants.




bitsire
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June 13, 2012, 05:02:56 AM
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Yes, it won't be as rapid as many hope, but it's become an irreversible process. As soon as the panic pendulum swings away from the Euro and toward another, perhaps the GBP or USD, another wave of capital will flow into Bitcoin while the EU fears ease.

If countries start implementing serious currency controls then the trickle into Bitcoin could quickly turn into a flood. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the move into Bitcoin intensify by the end of the summer - they've already got the cash sniffing dogs out at the Italian borders, Switzerland has been talking about currency controls to prevent money from coming IN and even the free travel of people across the Eurozone has been questioned. Glad I got Bitcoin  Grin
silverbox
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June 13, 2012, 02:55:06 PM
 #2028

Go Gold, Go Bitcoin!!  Wink
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June 13, 2012, 04:10:44 PM
 #2029

oops
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June 13, 2012, 04:14:00 PM
 #2030

Dang BTC pulled back from 5.96 to 5.86 ;(
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June 13, 2012, 04:14:52 PM
 #2031

Dang BTC pulled back from 5.96 to 5.86 ;(

whats the score now? Cheesy
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June 13, 2012, 04:29:55 PM
 #2032

Dang BTC pulled back from 5.96 to 5.86 ;(

whats the score now? Cheesy

You cover that GLD short yet??  Don't wait too long! Wink
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June 13, 2012, 04:31:09 PM
 #2033

Dang BTC pulled back from 5.96 to 5.86 ;(

whats the score now? Cheesy

You cover that GLD short yet??  Don't wait too long! Wink

LOL!  ignoring one's question is the greatest form of flattery! Cheesy
silverbox
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June 13, 2012, 06:06:49 PM
 #2034

Look at that dollar index dropping like a rock!!
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June 13, 2012, 06:42:35 PM
 #2035

Look at that dollar index dropping like a rock!!

spoke too soon; again! Cheesy
SkRRJyTC
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June 13, 2012, 07:41:27 PM
 #2036

actually my subs don't have to vouch for anything.  i wrote everything right here in this thread.  go back and check.

I remember.  No need to check.  Just wondering if you covered yet, as the dollar index is falling..  

Don't get caught with your pants down with QE3, euro gold bonds, and a falling dollar index  all on the table...

USDX isnt falling... not until its below $81 would I call it falling.

EDIT $82 is an important level too... just not as important IMO

We didnt even test $82...

EDIT: Metals are inching up with the dollar now... interesting

$82 tested and defended... didnt get close to $81...

USD goes up from here.
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June 13, 2012, 07:45:24 PM
 #2037

I think that the intrinsic market value of bitcoin now is 30 times as the end of May, 2011. The number of users is between 5-6 times as many as in May, 2011. and the currency system has Y possibly connections for doing business if there is X participants, Y=X(X-1)/2. If this is a reasonable way for indicating the value of an money system, and if X1=5~6X2, Then Y1 approximately 30 times as Y2, so that the intrinsic market value of bitcoin now is 30 times as the end of May, 2011.

(intrinsic market value of bitcoin does not automatically reflected by the trading market value)

edit

I think maybe that the price at the end of May 2011 was over valued and now is under valued.

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June 13, 2012, 07:56:40 PM
 #2038

I think that the intrinsic market value of bitcoin now is 30 times as the end of May, 2011. The number of users is between 5-6 times as many as in May, 2011. and the currency system has Y possibly connections for doing business if there is X participants, Y=X(X-1)/2. If this is a reasonable way for indicating the value of an money system, and if X1=5~6X2, Then Y1 approximately 30 times as Y2, so that the intrinsic market value of bitcoin now is 30 times as the end of May, 2011.

(intrinsic market value of bitcoin does not automatically reflected by the trading market value)

edit

I think maybe that the price at the end of May 2011 was over valued and now is under valued.

+1

*slow clap*
molecular
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June 13, 2012, 08:45:08 PM
 #2039

I think that the intrinsic market value of bitcoin now is 30 times as the end of May, 2011. The number of users is between 5-6 times as many as in May, 2011. and the currency system has Y possibly connections for doing business if there is X participants, Y=X(X-1)/2. If this is a reasonable way for indicating the value of an money system, and if X1=5~6X2, Then Y1 approximately 30 times as Y2, so that the intrinsic market value of bitcoin now is 30 times as the end of May, 2011.

(intrinsic market value of bitcoin does not automatically reflected by the trading market value)

This is one of many examples on display in this forum that shows why we do not determine the value of stuff by using central reasoning (by however well educated people), but by letting supply and demand determine it in a free market environment.

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miscreanity
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June 14, 2012, 05:28:11 AM
 #2040

HKMex update:

And the plunge in open interest of over 50% in both gold and silver... this pattern has repeated a few times so far. Delivery is on the 15th, but I'm not as well versed in the delivery process with HKMex as at COMEX. Such a spike and immediate decline in open interest is very odd, though. The impression is that physical delivery is needed immediately, for what purpose we can only speculate.

Because this pattern has occurred yet again, I'm going to fall back to the stronger possibility that large interests which have contractual obligations elsewhere (bullion banks) need metal from a source that has it readily available (China). This OI behavior is not indicative of explosive demand at the HKMex from wider investor awareness. However, if accurate, it would mean that physical gold demand is overwhelming paper and prices are extremely likely to escalate.

Continuing from the mechanism above, the second spike in silver OI might have been a rush to supply physical demand in order to allow the paper charade to "work its magic" - at this point it is glaringly clear that it ran out of "juice" and is unlikely to work again. Lower prices are the solution to lower prices, and as seen in the charts - if demand is indeed so much greater than it was during late 2011, efforts at managing perception have utterly failed.





Here's a suspicious bit of information:

COMEX delivery notices one day prior to the OI spike - Friday, June 8th - stood at 1,710 contracts or 171,000 toz of gold that must be delivered by month-end. As noted earlier, the COMEX equivalent of HKMex contracts was a little over 220,000 toz. Subtracting the "normal" OI of 871 contracts from the peak at 6,881 leaves 6,010 at 32 toz each, for a total of 192,320 toz. If we take the high of 6,881 contracts and pull the latest OI of 3,060 (which includes the 871 "normal" contracts), the remainder is 97,920 while the latest remaining COMEX delivery notices stand at 969 or 96,900 toz.

To drive the point of this rounding error across: HKMex 97,920 vs COMEX 96,900

In silver COMEX delivery notices, 59 remained the day before the spike began, for 295,000 toz. The spike high of 1,704 less 134 "normal" contracts is 1,570 or 1,570,000 toz. That would cover the 295,000 toz notices remaining, as well as provide supply for July - a major delivery month for silver, unlike gold which has a major month come August. Following the calculations above, subtracting the latest OI from of 650 from the spike high leaves 1,054 contracts or 1,054,000 toz as delivery potential.

Coincidence? Almost exactly the right amount of gold ordered from one exchange to cover for another, while overshooting to prepare for a big delivery month in silver? Very possible, but the actual details may never come to light.

Explanations have been presented by others regarding similar shuffling and draining of various ETFs, including GLD, as well as what are supposed to be segregated holdings of physical precious metals at, up until now, reputable brick-and-mortar institutions. The phyzzz is being grabbed from every direction, and almost nobody will realize it's gone until there's virtually nothing left.
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