cypherdoc (OP)
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September 25, 2012, 04:50:33 PM |
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b/c all those references involve BARS, not coins. plus, even though we can assume the coin fakes have been around for some time, its now getting out in the media in a more substantial manner. sometimes realization takes time. |
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SkRRJyTC
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September 25, 2012, 04:56:26 PM |
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SkRRJyTC
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September 25, 2012, 04:57:16 PM |
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Because we're at the top of a bubble. hmm... Under all time highs + "we're at the top of a bubble" = does not compute. |
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cypherdoc (OP)
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September 25, 2012, 05:00:37 PM |
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again, coin fakes may have been around for a while but its the realization and sentiment behind further investment in gold which may take a big hit from the increased media attention. apparently it has gotten much more profitable to engage in this fraudulent activity and the actors are now willing to take more risks as evidenced by the fact that now 10 tungsten gold BARS have been found in Manhattan being peddled by supposed legit dealers. we knew about the subprime loan problem for at least a year and a half before the "oh shit" moment occurred. just sayin'. |
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SkRRJyTC
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September 25, 2012, 05:03:56 PM |
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Alright I understand what you are saying now.
I agree with "its the realization and sentiment behind further investment in gold which may take a big hit from the increased media attention." I guess I just dont agree that it is a "game changer".
The more profitable it becomes to make fakes, the more profitable it becomes to market a handheld ultrasound device to PM investors... The market will fix this issue of fakes on its own.
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cypherdoc (OP)
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September 25, 2012, 05:08:06 PM |
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Alright I understand what you are saying now.
I agree with "its the realization and sentiment behind further investment in gold which may take a big hit from the increased media attention." I guess I just dont agree that it is a "game changer".
The more profitable it becomes to make fakes, the more profitable it becomes to market a handheld ultrasound device to PM investors... The market will fix this issue of fakes on its own.
thats a good idea about an US device but it would probably be too expensive. mine cost over $50K but its a specialized device. i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too. |
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Severian
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September 25, 2012, 05:13:45 PM |
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this is very true altho it may be hard for silver to rally if gold doesn't.
Normally, I'd agree with you. These aren't "normal" days. When the stampede from paper to real world assets begins, a larger percentage of the clued-in crowd might steer away from the usual gold assets due to the doubt you mention and head to silver. It takes more work than it's worth to make a 1948 Washington quarter.  |
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cypherdoc (OP)
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September 25, 2012, 05:17:32 PM |
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this is very true altho it may be hard for silver to rally if gold doesn't.
Normally, I'd agree with you. These aren't "normal" days. When the stampede from paper to real world assets begins, a larger percentage of the clued-in crowd might steer away from the usual gold assets due to the doubt you mention and head to silver. It takes more work than it's worth to make a 1948 Washington quarter. you're probably right about junk silver but Morgan's no: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110494.msg1220008#msg1220008which reminds me. in the past i've been willing to buy those bags without breaking the seal so that i could return them w/o the coin dealer likewise breaking the seal to count them. if i do ever buy junk bags again i might have to open up those puppies and count/inspect them thoroughly. |
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cypherdoc (OP)
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September 25, 2012, 05:20:37 PM |
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the really scary part of this is that with today's technology why is it so unlikely that a motivated coin scammer wouldn't be able to fake fill even a junk silver dime?
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Severian
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September 25, 2012, 05:30:52 PM |
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which reminds me. in the past i've been willing to buy those bags without breaking the seal so that i could return them w/o the coin dealer likewise breaking the seal to count them. if i do ever buy junk bags again i might have to open up those puppies and count/inspect them thoroughly.
I can tell a fake silver coin from a real one in two seconds by its sound. I can even hear a silver coin in a cash register till. Gold doesn't have the same sonic properties or maybe I just haven't handled enough of it to be able to discern the difference. If ag:au ratio drops another 15-20%, fake silver bars will be the next worry. Junk silver might have a shot at being the safest bet in the coming bloodbath. That would be ironic, to say the least. |
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cypherdoc (OP)
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September 25, 2012, 05:32:53 PM |
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which reminds me. in the past i've been willing to buy those bags without breaking the seal so that i could return them w/o the coin dealer likewise breaking the seal to count them. if i do ever buy junk bags again i might have to open up those puppies and count/inspect them thoroughly.
I can tell a fake silver coin from a real one in two seconds by its sound. I can even hear a silver coin in a cash register till. Gold doesn't have the same sonic properties or maybe I just haven't handled enough of it to be able to discern the difference. If ag:au ratio drops another 15-20%, fake silver bars will be the next worry. Junk silver might have a shot at being the safest bet in the coming bloodbath. That would be ironic, to say the least. one has to assume though that the tech exists to fake fill even junk dimes. how does the avg person protect themselves against that, you excluded? |
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Severian
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September 25, 2012, 05:39:42 PM |
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one has to assume though that the tech exists to fake fill even junk dimes. how does the avg person protect themselves against that, you excluded?
They can call me. Kidding aside, it will be a problem when it becomes profitable enough to do so. The standard blow test is always handy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0h0_NouPj8 |
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cypherdoc (OP)
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September 25, 2012, 05:50:13 PM |
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one has to assume though that the tech exists to fake fill even junk dimes. how does the avg person protect themselves against that, you excluded?
They can call me. Kidding aside, it will be a problem when it becomes profitable enough to do so. The standard blow test is always handy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0h0_NouPj8chime? lol! so am i correct that when Armageddon hits and gold and silver resume its currency status that every tx will require the assistance of a magnet, ultrasound, electrical conductivity meter, and chime test? or just call Severian?  and they say Bitcoin is complicated! |
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Severian
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September 25, 2012, 05:56:48 PM |
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so am i correct that when Armageddon hits and gold and silver resume its currency status that every tx will require the assistance of a magnet, ultrasound, electrical conductivity meter, and chime test? or just call Severian?
I think we'll be suited for this brave new world that's just around the corner. |
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notme
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September 25, 2012, 06:10:25 PM |
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Because we're at the top of a bubble. hmm... Under all time highs + "we're at the top of a bubble" = does not compute. Give it a year. |
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labestiol
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September 25, 2012, 07:25:38 PM |
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The real crazy thing to me is that dealers don't have even a cheap ultrasound tester. Pretty sure cypherdoc's one is not needed to see the difference (ZH people were saying something 200$ worth is good enough). I guess now more will, and will agree to do testing in front of customers.
But the good news is that it's yet another argument for bitcoin.
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1BestioLC7YBVh8Q5LfH6RYURD6MrpP8y6
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Melbustus
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September 25, 2012, 09:10:04 PM |
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Yeah, I was gonna say... It should be possible to get/build an appropriate ultrasound tester for $100-$300. I have some equipment I'll be experimenting with, and some Caltech-educated EE friends that should be able to help out... I'm pretty confident this can be done cheaply.
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Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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Melbustus
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September 25, 2012, 09:26:11 PM |
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i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.
Yeah, people are definitely going to be pretty worried about their physical... But I suspect *most* (in private hands, at least) will be found to be legit. Cheap testing equipment will proliferate a bit, and this will blow over. Obviously, I could be wrong, but these things generally tend to get blown out of proportion... You're looking at this as really bearish for gold. What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? Maybe this just causes a big spread to develop between paper and (legit)physical... ? Disclosure: I'm neither bullish nor bearish on gold. Too much variance on all the variables, leading to statistical noise in aggregate, in my opinion... Bitcoin, on the other hand, I'm pretty bullish on. And yeah, good luck filling bitcoin with tungsten. |
Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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SkRRJyTC
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September 25, 2012, 09:49:22 PM |
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i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.
...What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? ... I think the flip side is simply that fakes wouldn't be becoming more prolific after the bubble has popped and the price is on the way down. I think its much more likely that fakes start to flood the market as we build up to the real bubble top. |
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Melbustus
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September 25, 2012, 10:23:56 PM |
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i don't know about you but i'm worried about the integrity of my own coins which is why i'm going to US them. and i bought them way before $1000. i do know that if i'm worried, everyone else is too.
...What about the flipside argument? If there really *is* widespread fraudulent physical gold (say, more than 15% of what's in private hands), that instantly reduces what people thought the supply of physical gold was, therefore bumping the price?? ... I think the flip side is simply that fakes wouldn't be becoming more prolific after the bubble has popped and the price is on the way down. I think its much more likely that fakes start to flood the market as we build up to the real bubble top. I don't know...how much does it cost to make a fake? Seems to me that it would still be profitable at much lower prices. And as someone else pointed out, fakes have indeed been happening for decades. People are just realizing it more now. |
Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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