Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

as i said, gold continues to climb.  that's ok; it's meant to suck the bulls back in before the next take down.  here's what i see:

gold is breaking up thru resistance, the lower red line, and may start sliding down the volume profile mountain to the upside.  the next area of resistance is the middle red line at which time i will start considering reintroducing shorts.  the top red line represents where gold has to get over the top of to start a new mini-bull for the intermediate term.  doubt it gets that high as i think the long term top is in at 1923 from 2011.

[1713558242]

1713558242

[Melbustus]

The notion that they are competing against each other is silly

Not silly to anyone who understand the concept of opportunity cost.

I agree Gold and  BTC serve the same purpose and yes by expending some time you may convince some usual gold purchasers to purchase bitcoin.

But I think your time investment would yield a higher return if you convinced people to turn against less sound investments, because there sure as hell are plenty of them out there. This would drive both Gold and BTC up.

I also think a fully hedged portfolio should be lined with Gold, you must admit bitcoin carries more risk than Gold. Bitcoin requires a working internet, Gold only requires a hand to hold it.

There is room for both Gold and Bitcoin in a sound portfolio.

There is *currently* room for both gold and bitcoin, sure. But if bitcoin proves to be resilient/successful, the argument for gold will be severely reduced. Bitcoin is a superset of gold. You can think of this in a couple ways; all the usual properties of money that gold is good at, bitcoin is better at. Or that gold is a physical manifestation of a decentralized ledger, and bitcoin is the far more efficient digital manifestation of the same thing.

Once bitcoin has proven longevity, use for gold will be limited to: 1) industrial, and 2) hedging an extremely thin slice of the long-tail of possible disaster outcomes. I think it's far less of a practical hedge than most gold-bugs think it is, but yes, there are still some scenarios in which you'd want it (and in which bitcoin is useless). That said, it's tough to hedge for all those tiny-probability events, so it's not really worth thinking about that much.

The question of how would you transmit wealth over 1000 years is interesting. Wences addresses that in his bitcoin2014 talk. Gold has obviously been the answer for the last 5000 years or so. I'm unconvinced it'll remain the answer. Humanity may just no longer have the ability to transmit wealth deeply through time anymore. The last 200years (last 100 especially) have been absolutely unprecedented in human history with regard to the pace of change and advancement. For the first time, it *is* rational to expect that things which have been constants for thousands of years will change in the next few decades.

[NewLiberty]

The notion that they are competing against each other is silly

Not silly to anyone who understand the concept of opportunity cost.

Both are true.  they compliment and compete.
Gold just has a massively larger market at the moment.

The folks who sold bitcoin at gold ounce parity (which coincidentally was its exact ATH, lasting only minutes) and have time-cost averaged back toward bitcoin balance since then, have done pretty well.

[inca]

The notion that they are competing against each other is silly

Not silly to anyone who understand the concept of opportunity cost.

I agree Gold and  BTC serve the same purpose and yes by expending some time you may convince some usual gold purchasers to purchase bitcoin.

But I think your time investment would yield a higher return if you convinced people to turn against less sound investments, because there sure as hell are plenty of them out there. This would drive both Gold and BTC up.

I also think a fully hedged portfolio should be lined with Gold, you must admit bitcoin carries more risk than Gold. Bitcoin requires a working internet, Gold only requires a hand to hold it.

There is room for both Gold and Bitcoin in a sound portfolio.

There is *currently* room for both gold and bitcoin, sure. But if bitcoin proves to be resilient/successful, the argument for gold will be severely reduced. Bitcoin is a superset of gold. You can think of this in a couple ways; all the usual properties of money that gold is good at, bitcoin is better at. Or that gold is a physical manifestation of a decentralized ledger, and bitcoin is the far more efficient digital manifestation of the same thing.

Once bitcoin has proven longevity, use for gold will be limited to: 1) industrial, and 2) hedging an extremely thin slice of the long-tail of possible disaster outcomes. I think it's far less of a practical hedge than most gold-bugs think it is, but yes, there are still some scenarios in which you'd want it (and in which bitcoin is useless). That said, it's tough to hedge for all those tiny-probability events, so it's not really worth thinking about that much.

The question of how would you transmit wealth over 1000 years is interesting. Wences addresses that in his bitcoin2014 talk. Gold has obviously been the answer for the last 5000 years or so. I'm unconvinced it'll remain the answer. Humanity may just no longer have the ability to transmit wealth deeply through time anymore. The last 200years (last 100 especially) have been absolutely unprecedented in human history with regard to the pace of change and advancement. For the first time, it *is* rational to expect that things which have been constants for thousands of years will change in the next few decades.

I agree with this post Melbustus. Whilst the pace of scientific change in the last 50 years has exploded, the limits of the human lifespan sadly have not kept up. We may be amongst the last few generations to not have access to life extension technology so for me at least transmitting wealth across millenia is a moot point. Unless we choose to do a Hal Finney and be cryogenically frozen.

But I agree that bitcoin is an improved digital gold. Most of the world thinks of gold as valuable. That process is taking place for bitcoin right now. The great unanswerable question is how large a pool of wealth bitcoin can become in the coming years.

[cypherdoc]

The notion that they are competing against each other is silly

Not silly to anyone who understand the concept of opportunity cost.

Both are true.  they compliment and compete.
Gold just has a massively larger market at the moment.

The folks who sold bitcoin at gold ounce parity (which coincidentally was its exact ATH, lasting only minutes) and have time-cost averaged back toward bitcoin balance since then, have done pretty well.

yes, it's fascinating to me that Bitcoin touched that price for only a few minutes before pulling back to where we are now.  at the very least, from a charting perspective, one would expect a retest or double top as one might call it.  except this time, i think we touch it, reject for a short time, and then blow through the top.

we'll see.

[justusranvier]

Out of interest: Say you were given the task of designing a portfolio to survive 1000 years, what would it be comprised of?

I don't believe this is a valid question.

We don't have the slightest idea what will be valuable 1000 years from now.

[sidhujag]

as i said, gold continues to climb.  that's ok; it's meant to suck the bulls back in before the next take down.  here's what i see:

gold is breaking up thru resistance, the lower red line, and may start sliding down the volume profile mountain to the upside.  the next area of resistance is the middle red line at which time i will start considering reintroducing shorts.  the top red line represents where gold has to get over the top of to start a new mini-bull for the intermediate term.  doubt it gets that high as i think the long term top is in at 1923 from 2011.

$1309/$1319 was the number I quoted when it was diving and people were scared? I think thats the first TP level... because it dove quite fast I think get past that.

[Cortex7]

Lol, who mentioned "prepper", only you.

Why shouldn't he mention it? Why do you laugh when he does?

I'm sorry, I realize how that might have come over as confrontational.

I just think the term is negatively loaded, it causes emotional responses. Preparing for a possibility (risk assessment) is very different from preparing for a certainty.

Many people think anyone holding a little silver or gold is a crazy paranoid "prepper", but that's not the case, people have used it as a store of wealth for millennia, it's proven to be a very robust wealth store, to that there is no argument.

"Gold bugs" are also thought to be a little crazy in all popular media etc. This notion I assume is spread as a cheap way to apply downward pressure to metals in order to hide real inflation rates.

[NotLambchop]

...
"Gold bugs" are also thought to be a little crazy in all popular media etc. This notion I assume is spread as a cheap way to apply downward pressure to metals in order to hide real inflation rates.

A fiendish conspiracy of mainstream press working in congress with my masters.

...
Learn to love us or die.



  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords.

[Cortex7]

Out of interest: Say you were given the task of designing a portfolio to survive 1000 years, what would it be comprised of?

I don't believe this is a valid question.

We don't have the slightest idea what will be valuable 1000 years from now.

I agree there will be no correct answer until those 1000 years have elapsed, but it's a perfectly valid question, giving insight into how the person answering thinks about wealth stores as long term contenders.

Myself I would stack a portfolio to last 1000 years something like this as a starting point:

50% Precious metals.
30% Bitcoin.
20% items that may be considered valuable antiques by then ( I would have to think more on that one ).

For a portfolio, with a 10 ... 50 year outlook, I would forget the antiques and have 50% Bitcoin, 50% PM.

[solex]

Out of interest: Say you were given the task of designing a portfolio to survive 1000 years, what would it be comprised of?

I don't believe this is a valid question.

We don't have the slightest idea what will be valuable 1000 years from now.

I agree there will be no correct answer until those 1000 years have elapsed, but it's a perfectly valid question, giving insight into how the person answering thinks about wealth stores as long term contenders.

Myself I would stack a portfolio to last 1000 years something like this as a starting point:

50% Precious metals.
30% Bitcoin.
20% items that may be considered valuable antiques by then ( I would have to think more on that one ).

For a portfolio, with a 10 ... 50 year outlook, I would forget the antiques and have 50% Bitcoin, 50% PM.

Land

[Bagatell]

Land

Land Taxes. Who holds the keys here?

[cypherdoc]

Btw, we have a Dow Theory bearish primary trend change in the books as both violated their Aug 7 lows.  any bounce from here is to be considered counter trend until proven otherwise.  the only question is whether we also got a Dow Theory non-confirmation:

[Cortex7]

Land

Maybe a small amount in land deeds, but political borders ( and thus the security of the land deed ) are quite fluid when viewed over 1k years.

[molecular]

Out of interest: Say you were given the task of designing a portfolio to survive 1000 years, what would it be comprised of?

I don't believe this is a valid question.

We don't have the slightest idea what will be valuable 1000 years from now.

I agree there will be no correct answer until those 1000 years have elapsed, but it's a perfectly valid question, giving insight into how the person answering thinks about wealth stores as long term contenders.

Myself I would stack a portfolio to last 1000 years something like this as a starting point:

50% Precious metals.
30% Bitcoin.
20% items that may be considered valuable antiques by then ( I would have to think more on that one ).

1000 years?

If the value is for me: my body will be gone by then. So most valuable will be some "hardware" for "me" to run on. Some processes by which "I" can exist. Maybe something like the ethereum blockchain and a religion around it to keep it alive and for providing sensing and actuation (humans and other means).

If the storage of value is for my family or clan, cult, sect or whatever: I'd say education and sensible goals and principles for the group would be a good investment. Also means of production and probably more importantly intelligence and modelling, planning capabilities and mechanisms for acquisition and preservance of knowledge and skills.

What the hell, quite a tangent...

[cypherdoc]

back to the Bitshares thing.  i now realize that it has its own blockchain and is just a variation of the same POS scheme.  sorry, i don't study these alts.

the fact that Daniel Larimer keeps changing the protocol is concerning, not to mention his public nature and those required of the delegate nodes.  the merger with Ethereum indicates to me that both are struggling to come up with a viable solution perhaps never to be found.

[NewLiberty]

back to the Bitshares thing.  i now realize that it has its own blockchain and is just a variation of the same POS scheme.  sorry, i don't study these alts.

the fact that Daniel Larimer keeps changing the protocol is concerning, not to mention his public nature and those required of the delegate nodes.  the merger with Ethereum indicates to me that both are struggling to come up with a viable solution perhaps never to be found.

At my first reading of it, I thought it might be an SEC honeypot.  That the SEC wanted to get in on the great deal the FBI got by seizing crypto.  After more time looking at it, it seems more to be true believers, but I still haven't figured out how it can survive being crushed by cascading failures from economic attacks.  George Soros would have a field day with it, if there ever gets to be any real money involved.

[Erdogan]

Out of interest: Say you were given the task of designing a portfolio to survive 1000 years, what would it be comprised of?

I don't believe this is a valid question.

We don't have the slightest idea what will be valuable 1000 years from now.

I agree there will be no correct answer until those 1000 years have elapsed, but it's a perfectly valid question, giving insight into how the person answering thinks about wealth stores as long term contenders.

Myself I would stack a portfolio to last 1000 years something like this as a starting point:

50% Precious metals.
30% Bitcoin.
20% items that may be considered valuable antiques by then ( I would have to think more on that one ).

1000 years?

If the value is for me: my body will be gone by then. So most valuable will be some "hardware" for "me" to run on. Some processes by which "I" can exist. Maybe something like the ethereum blockchain and a religion around it to keep it alive and for providing sensing and actuation (humans and other means).

If the storage of value is for my family or clan, cult, sect or whatever: I'd say education and sensible goals and principles for the group would be a good investment. Also means of production and probably more importantly intelligence and modelling, planning capabilities and mechanisms for acquisition and preservance of knowledge and skills.

What the hell, quite a tangent...

Do something weird and get your name into history.

[cypherdoc]

back to the Bitshares thing.  i now realize that it has its own blockchain and is just a variation of the same POS scheme.  sorry, i don't study these alts.

the fact that Daniel Larimer keeps changing the protocol is concerning, not to mention his public nature and those required of the delegate nodes.  the merger with Ethereum indicates to me that both are struggling to come up with a viable solution perhaps never to be found.

At my first reading of it, I thought it might be an SEC honeypot.  That the SEC wanted to get in on the great deal the FBI got by seizing crypto.  After more time looking at it, it seems more to be true believers, but I still haven't figured out how it can survive being crushed by cascading failures from economic attacks.  George Soros would have a field day with it, if there ever gets to be any real money involved.

More like regulatory attacks. Don't forget that rumor that came out on reddit about the SEC/FINCEN coming out with a surprise announcement soon. There's no way, imo, they are going to let share issuance go unchallenged, especially when they have public figures to attack.

[Cortex7]

1000 years?

If the value is for me: my body will be gone by then. So most valuable will be some "hardware" for "me" to run on. Some processes by which "I" can exist. Maybe something like the ethereum blockchain and a religion around it to keep it alive and for providing sensing and actuation (humans and other means).

If the storage of value is for my family or clan, cult, sect or whatever: I'd say education and sensible goals and principles for the group would be a good investment. Also means of production and probably more importantly intelligence and modelling, planning capabilities and mechanisms for acquisition and preservance of knowledge and skills.

What the hell, quite a tangent...

Alcor accepts bitcoin

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27yjsu/you_can_now_pay_for_your_own_cryonic_suspension/