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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2022643 times)
neilol-real
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October 08, 2014, 07:06:30 PM
 #13521

...<pantera manipulation theory>...


Maybe you can merge that theory with my OTC-buy theory?



Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.

Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.

The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...

Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.

My thoughts were around a pre-agreed contract resolving on that day for the weighted average bitstamp price for the day.. could have been a large bet / futures contract / OTC trade. They wouldn't have been able to secure many coins on Bitstamp  under the $300 wall so idk about the manipulation idea.
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cypherdoc
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October 08, 2014, 07:07:20 PM
 #13522

If this we're the case I would think that 30K wall would have been eaten much faster (by pantera), but as far as I can tell it was chipped away by many "smaller" buyers.  I can't help but think pantera would have just panic bought the whole block if all this was the case.

that's a good point.  in fact, i was right there with everyone encouraging a group effort to knock it down.

of course, it's possible that Pantera was in fact buying it in small, medium, and larger chunks along with the final takedown.
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October 08, 2014, 07:09:49 PM
 #13523

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
Nekrobios
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October 08, 2014, 07:10:31 PM
 #13524

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.
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October 08, 2014, 07:11:56 PM
 #13525

If this we're the case I would think that 30K wall would have been eaten much faster (by pantera), but as far as I can tell it was chipped away by many "smaller" buyers.  I can't help but think pantera would have just panic bought the whole block if all this was the case.

that's a good point.  in fact, i was right there with everyone encouraging a group effort to knock it down.

of course, it's possible that Pantera was in fact buying it in small, medium, and larger chunks along with the final takedown.

I thought about this too, it would be ballsy not to just panic buy the whole block, if I were running pantera, I would be too afraid of some other bullwhale scooping up the cheap coins I had worked so hard to extract from the market all month.
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October 08, 2014, 07:13:29 PM
 #13526

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

I'm gonna have to correct this part of your theory.

The Bitcoin vs Gold report was originally published in their September Investors letter.

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-August-2014-31.pdf




"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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October 08, 2014, 07:16:08 PM
 #13527

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

I'm gonna have to correct this part of your theory.

The Bitcoin vs Gold report was originally published in their September Investors letter.

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-August-2014-31.pdf





i'm aware of that.  so why republish it 2d after the selloff?
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October 08, 2014, 07:19:08 PM
 #13528

If this we're the case I would think that 30K wall would have been eaten much faster (by pantera), but as far as I can tell it was chipped away by many "smaller" buyers.  I can't help but think pantera would have just panic bought the whole block if all this was the case.

that's a good point.  in fact, i was right there with everyone encouraging a group effort to knock it down.

of course, it's possible that Pantera was in fact buying it in small, medium, and larger chunks along with the final takedown.

I thought about this too, it would be ballsy not to just panic buy the whole block, if I were running pantera, I would be too afraid of some other bullwhale scooping up the cheap coins I had worked so hard to extract from the market all month.

maybe they thought they might be able to get the seller to drop the wall price down even further and then when it didn't budge, they pulled the final trigger to take it all down and call it quits.

the main thing here is, Pantera essentially controls the #1 exchange that the whole community keys off of.  and they probably can see the internal order books.  why not manipulate it for the chance to make extraordinary life changing profits?
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October 08, 2014, 07:20:52 PM
 #13529

imho, when someone is about to sell a major btc chunk (more than tens of thousands of btc in one go) and it was agreed to do this deal on a specific date, and since we talking about a 10 month downtrend, it is hard to imagine that this person would not insist on some -at least weekly- average price.
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October 08, 2014, 07:23:21 PM
 #13530

i put this up an hour ago.  no backlash yet:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/519908666670329857
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October 08, 2014, 07:24:30 PM
 #13531

imho, when someone is about to sell a major btc chunk (more than tens of thousands of btc in one go) and it was agreed to do this deal on a specific date, and since we talking about a 10 month downtrend, it is hard to imagine that this person would not insist on some -at least weekly- average price.

my theory doesn't depend on a cooperative 30K BTC seller.  i think Pantera forced the price down since June looking for a weak hand whale to capitulate so that they can pick up cheap coins.
Nekrobios
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October 08, 2014, 07:26:25 PM
 #13532

the main thing here is, Pantera essentially controls the #1 exchange that the whole community keys off of.  and they probably can see the internal order books.  why not manipulate it for the chance to make extraordinary life changing profits?
Now I see what you mean. I completely forgot that Pantera invested in Bitstamp. Do they have majority share?
brg444
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October 08, 2014, 07:29:58 PM
 #13533

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

I'm gonna have to correct this part of your theory.

The Bitcoin vs Gold report was originally published in their September Investors letter.

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-August-2014-31.pdf





i'm aware of that.  so why republish it 2d after the selloff?

did they announce this?

seems to me it is just a spin off their newsletter that they formatted to fit their "Bitcoin research" section

note that I somewhat agree with you theory.

see my tweet in reply to Dan's here : https://twitter.com/bergalex/status/519335473895182336

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
brg444
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October 08, 2014, 07:32:28 PM
 #13534

it should also be mentioned that they most certainly bid on the USMS auction and struck out.

https://twitter.com/dan_pantera/status/483710410588037120

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
cypherdoc
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October 08, 2014, 07:34:54 PM
 #13535

the main thing here is, Pantera essentially controls the #1 exchange that the whole community keys off of.  and they probably can see the internal order books.  why not manipulate it for the chance to make extraordinary life changing profits?
Now I see what you mean. I completely forgot that Pantera invested in Bitstamp. Do they have majority share?

as far as i know, they are the only investment fund with a stake in Bitstamp.
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October 08, 2014, 07:36:53 PM
 #13536

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

I'm gonna have to correct this part of your theory.

The Bitcoin vs Gold report was originally published in their September Investors letter.

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-August-2014-31.pdf







i'm aware of that.  so why republish it 2d after the selloff?

did they announce this?

seems to me it is just a spin off their newsletter that they formatted to fit their "Bitcoin research" section

note that I somewhat agree with you theory.

see my tweet in reply to Dan's here : https://twitter.com/bergalex/status/519335473895182336

look at the date of the republishing:  October 7, 2014

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf
explorer
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October 08, 2014, 07:36:55 PM
 #13537

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.
It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...
cypherdoc
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October 08, 2014, 07:38:36 PM
 #13538

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.
It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.
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October 08, 2014, 07:39:47 PM
 #13539

My quick and dirty valuation of BTC in 2020 is also based on M2.  Not completely incomprehensible that BTC could be 5% of M2 by 2020, or $2300 or so per BTC.

This would imply that you're also predicting a significant change in bitcoin's historical growth rate starting now.  What would make you believe that growth would be vastly slower moving forward?



Peter, (correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that dot at about $4000 not $2300) that aside when I say the graph it looked a lot like the Bitcoin inflation curve, giving this meager projection more validity.

It got me thinking that the growth in network value and demand with a fixed supply (diminishing inflation) that the relationship would decouple over time as the price would rise as supply shrinks, and that wasn't evident in your model.

I guess that is what Marcus was thinking here by using the market cap which accommodates inflation.


Total BTC value (CAP) and number BTC TXS squared excluding popular addresses (with a simple exponential fit line). Data from Blockchain.info.

On current trend of ~4years, CAP ~$100 billion Aug. 2015, $1 Trillion Aug. 2016 (after next halving) ... unless TXS hit some limit.


Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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October 08, 2014, 07:43:28 PM
 #13540

I like your theory, especially because it explains the trust required to have fiat on BitStamp.  

Let me add to it by suggesting that a blockchain analysis (which I didn't do) might prove that large miners exist who were holding coins.  These miners might be holding hoping for a price reversal, but they would have a must sell price to ensure continuity of the business (better to sell at 5% profit and keep mining then at 5% loss and have to turn off the electricity).  It would not be too hard to guess that approximate price.  

Therefore the Manipulator(TM) could do better then just hope for a weak hand.  He KNEW weak hands were out there, their approximate holdings, and what their approximate sell price would be.  

Some confirmation of this miner-seller theory:  The BTC price is approaching the marginal cost to mine (the trigger point for miner sales) if the hash rate levels off or drops... its too early to tell, but it definitely looks like there might be a hiccup happening: https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

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