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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2011683 times)
explorer
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October 08, 2014, 07:50:43 PM
 #13541

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.
It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes. 
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October 08, 2014, 07:53:26 PM
 #13542

...<pantera manipulation theory>...


Maybe you can merge that theory with my OTC-buy theory?



Didn't he first put the wall up at $280, take it down for an hour or two, then put it back at $320? And it was getting nibbled at $320 too. Then it disappeared and came back at $300, where it obviously got eaten until gone. I really don't understand why he moved it from $320 to $300 given that it was getting action at $320...*iff* he was (even poorly) rationally trying to price-maximize.

Obviously tossing up a single 30k wall doesn't make too much sense for someone who's primary objective was rationally selling that stash. But I can maybe buy the theory of an irrational/undisciplined/freaked-out holder *except* for the move from $320 to $300, since there was indeed stable action at $320.

The only fully rational motivation I can see is if he was trying to achieve a low but stable price for a period of hours during which to secure an OTC deal in the other direction. He tried $280, but it was unstably crashing the price, so he tried $320. He got good interest there with a stable price, so he decided to see if he could do better and keep things stable at $300. Price pegged right up against the wall without crashing, so he stuck with it, and priced a bigger buy deal on OTC based on a stable price of $300. ...

Who knows... Not all players are rational, so it could be anything. Whatever; even the big trades are insignificant noise in the long run.

i think you have to back up one step and explain the inexplicable selloff since June in the face of all this good news.  and as someone who follows price quite closely using btccharts as well as other tools, much of the selling has seemed unnatural, forced, and timed.  it really looked like someone looking to force a capitulation.

the abrupt appearance and now disappearance of the trolls needs explaining as well.


Well, my theory is just pointing out that placing the wall originally at 280 (where it was destabilizing the market), then moving to 320 (where it was getting action), then to 300 isn't rational *unless* you're trying to set up some OTC trade in the other direction and need a "stable" multi-hour average on Bitstamp as a pricing reference for the OTC trade. So to fit that with your theory, you could still argue that it was Pantera executing the final load-up via such an OTC trade, and the 30k wall was theirs and simply necessary for the price-fix. Still fits with your point asking who would trust an unregulated Slovenian exchange with 30kBTC...

Anyway, I honestly don't know what to think. I don't really understand moving the wall from $320 to $300 outside of the price-fix OTC-buy theory which seems a little complicated for my usual liking. But, as I repeatedly say, I'm not a trader, so I have little instinct for how much shenanigans like that actually happen. Maybe it's more common than I think.





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October 08, 2014, 08:02:31 PM
 #13543

this is interesting.  falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:

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October 08, 2014, 08:04:37 PM
 #13544

this is interesting.  falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:



i thought the guys got banned ? no ?
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October 08, 2014, 08:04:54 PM
 #13545



Well, my theory is just pointing out that placing the wall originally at 280 (where it was destabilizing the market), then moving to 320 (where it was getting action), then to 300 isn't rational *unless* you're trying to set up some OTC trade in the other direction and need a "stable" multi-hour average on Bitstamp as a pricing reference for the OTC trade. So to fit that with your theory, you could still argue that it was Pantera executing the final load-up via such an OTC trade, and the 30k wall was theirs and simply necessary for the price-fix. Still fits with your point asking who would trust an unregulated Slovenian exchange with 30kBTC...

Anyway, I honestly don't know what to think. I don't really understand moving the wall from $320 to $300 outside of the price-fix OTC-buy theory which seems a little complicated for my usual liking. But, as I repeatedly say, I'm not a trader, so I have little instinct for how much shenanigans like that actually happen. Maybe it's more common than I think.






At 320 and 310 there was still a fair bit of action under the wall. When it got snugged up with the 299.99 bid wall, it  became flavor of the day...
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October 08, 2014, 08:05:17 PM
 #13546

this is interesting.  falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:


Here's another one.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160
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October 08, 2014, 08:08:55 PM
 #13547


Well, my theory is just pointing out that placing the wall originally at 280 (where it was destabilizing the market), then moving to 320 (where it was getting action), then to 300 isn't rational *unless* you're trying to set up some OTC trade in the other direction and need a "stable" multi-hour average on Bitstamp as a pricing reference for the OTC trade. So to fit that with your theory, you could still argue that it was Pantera executing the final load-up via such an OTC trade, and the 30k wall was theirs and simply necessary for the price-fix. Still fits with your point asking who would trust an unregulated Slovenian exchange with 30kBTC...

Anyway, I honestly don't know what to think. I don't really understand moving the wall from $320 to $300 outside of the price-fix OTC-buy theory which seems a little complicated for my usual liking. But, as I repeatedly say, I'm not a trader, so I have little instinct for how much shenanigans like that actually happen. Maybe it's more common than I think.


6 hours on a Sunday is not enough time, nor even a possible time, to set up an OTC trade of that magnitude. 

those things take days, if not weeks to negotiate and setup for that amount.

if you look at the address and read Dan Moorehead's tweets, the 30K BTC were transferred to Bitstamp just before the wall went up on Sunday and the coins originating from that address were accumulated from April 2013.
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October 08, 2014, 08:10:20 PM
 #13548

this is interesting.  falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:



i thought the guys got banned ? no ?

I'll have to Check my ignore list, but we're there not falling accounts with varying number of L's as they were banned ?  The latest still_fall(l? )ing was just the other day.  Nothing proves it to be the same actor,  mind you.
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October 08, 2014, 08:10:38 PM
 #13549

Definitely agree that the trolls were part of whatever this smack down was all about.  If they start posting again watch out!
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October 08, 2014, 08:10:52 PM
 #13550

this is interesting.  falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:


Here's another one.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160

little harder to explain his register date but quite suspicious that he stops posting on Oct 4.  they just disappeared (were dismissed).
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October 08, 2014, 08:12:18 PM
 #13551

Andreas  A. in front of the Canadian Senate in 5 minutes!

http://senparlvu.parl.gc.ca/Guide.aspx?viewmode=4&categoryid=-1&eventid=9692&Language=E
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October 08, 2014, 08:12:33 PM
 #13552

this is interesting.  falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:


Here's another one.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160

little harder to explain his register date but quite suspicious that he stops posting on Oct 4.  they just disappeared (were dismissed).
There are lot's of account for sale, maybe this was one of those.
It's far fetched, but a possibility.
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October 08, 2014, 08:15:04 PM
 #13553

here's the BearWhale address, which suggests to me the seller wasn't involved in a conspiracy:

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October 08, 2014, 08:15:32 PM
 #13554


Well, my theory is just pointing out that placing the wall originally at 280 (where it was destabilizing the market), then moving to 320 (where it was getting action), then to 300 isn't rational *unless* you're trying to set up some OTC trade in the other direction and need a "stable" multi-hour average on Bitstamp as a pricing reference for the OTC trade. So to fit that with your theory, you could still argue that it was Pantera executing the final load-up via such an OTC trade, and the 30k wall was theirs and simply necessary for the price-fix. Still fits with your point asking who would trust an unregulated Slovenian exchange with 30kBTC...

Anyway, I honestly don't know what to think. I don't really understand moving the wall from $320 to $300 outside of the price-fix OTC-buy theory which seems a little complicated for my usual liking. But, as I repeatedly say, I'm not a trader, so I have little instinct for how much shenanigans like that actually happen. Maybe it's more common than I think.


6 hours on a Sunday is not enough time, nor even a possible time, to set up an OTC trade of that magnitude. 

those things take days, if not weeks to negotiate and setup for that amount.

if you look at the address and read Dan Moorehead's tweets, the 30K BTC were transferred to Bitstamp just before the wall went up on Sunday and the coins originating from that address were accumulated from April 2013.

That 30k sell looked like it was a panicked one-off decision, by a non-trader who was suffering from seeing a paper holding of $30m decrease steadily to $10m. Greed and fear all over again. The decline to $300 had a lot of people thinking that $200 or even $100 was imminent. It is reasonable that at least one of those people had a large holding and acted accordingly.

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October 08, 2014, 08:18:53 PM
 #13555

this is interesting.  falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:

http://i.imgur.com/n4w5iuZ.png
Here's another one.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160

little harder to explain his register date but quite suspicious that he stops posting on Oct 4.  they just disappeared (were dismissed).
No offense, but you're such a conspiracy nut often times. Cheesy

He was banned on that date. That's why he pops up with new accounts all the time. He's actually still posting, but he and his new posts just get nuked from the forum.
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October 08, 2014, 08:26:34 PM
 #13556

This is the most plausible theory I've heard to date, Cypher.

But let me get this straight: you're suggesting that the 30k wall belonged to a panicking early adopter and was in fact the "dessert" that Pantera was after the entire time.  Correct?

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time Smiley )

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October 08, 2014, 08:30:14 PM
 #13557

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time Smiley )
You did read my post, yes? It serves nothing to ignore reality (or at least an important piece of it) to uphold the narrative for a preconceived and wished for idea.

Time to move the goalposts. Cheesy
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October 08, 2014, 08:31:29 PM
 #13558

Blitz is part of it Shocked
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October 08, 2014, 08:34:33 PM
 #13559

Blitz is part of it Shocked
Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right? Cheesy
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October 08, 2014, 08:37:53 PM
 #13560

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time Smiley )
You did read my post, yes? It serves nothing to ignore reality (or at least an important piece of it) to uphold the narrative for a preconceived and wished for idea.

Time to move the goalposts. Cheesy

Yes I did read your post Blitz, in fact, I believe most of us knew that fallllling had been banned.  Cypher's point still stands, for there's been a sharp drop in the intensity of trolling since the 30k wall was eaten.  

Regardless of the trolls, what I like about the theory in particular (that I didn't know until now) are the details regarding Pantera's relationship with BitStamp.  This make two things more believable: (1) Pantera may have had some knowledge of the fiat balances that weekend on BitStamp as well as the propensity of the account holders to use them (giving Pantera confidence to nibble the wall rather than gulp it in a single bite thereby exposing their strategy), (2) Pantera would be more confident holding large balances on BitStamp than other investors.  


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