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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1803330 times)
Adrian-x
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October 04, 2014, 02:49:15 AM
 #13221

Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

You may well be right.  I hope so.  I've not followed any analysis which lends strength to you suggestion and certainly have not performed any myself.  I'm not aware of any public proof of control after then famous mid-2011 transfer so they certainly could have launched into a bunch of blatant fraud in that timeframe.

If anything I hope it's whales dumping Bitcoin to arm the fiat cannons, but the thought also crossed my mind that it could be some Russian oligarchs (who bought in during the Cyprus run up) they could be dumping give Russia's new position on Bitcoin and the fact its been a relative hedge given the drop in ruble.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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cypherdoc
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October 04, 2014, 02:56:39 AM
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regardless of who it is, this severe volatility is to be expected with a nascent, fixed supply currency that has no real competition (despite what the altscams say) and is permeating every corner of the earth.  it's a reflection of the severe disagreement btwn proponents and opponents who take turns gaining the upper hand in a never ending series of up down cycles.  

it's a promising sign, as Bitcoin truly has the potential to change the world.  

back in Jan 2011, the volatility of Oct 2010, from $0.06 to $0.50 and then back down to $0.14 is what caught my eye and told me, "there's something here".
Peter R
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October 04, 2014, 03:02:29 AM
 #13223

Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

not sure what you're referring to.  you mean the guy Kevin who stole around 2000BTC?

Although the evidence is circumstantial, a plausible case can be made that the great bitcoin theft actually took place in 2011, and all the following events were the result of Mark trying to fix it:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/

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tabnloz
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October 04, 2014, 03:02:51 AM
 #13224

Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

You may well be right.  I hope so.  I've not followed any analysis which lends strength to you suggestion and certainly have not performed any myself.  I'm not aware of any public proof of control after then famous mid-2011 transfer so they certainly could have launched into a bunch of blatant fraud in that timeframe.

If anything I hope it's whales dumping Bitcoin to arm the fiat cannons, but the thought also crossed my mind that it could be some Russian oligarchs (who bought in during the Cyprus run up) they could be dumping give Russia's new position on Bitcoin and the fact its been a relative hedge given the drop in ruble.

It's a good point - reinforces the fact that this isn't a U.S. centric market ( looking at you NYC) but a global asset that can be a tool for many different use cases (I know the applications for remittance & transfer is also worldwide, but I mean that it also an effective trading asset v fiat devaluation etc).
Adrian-x
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October 04, 2014, 03:05:05 AM
 #13225

Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

not sure what you're referring to.  you mean the guy Kevin who stole around 2000BTC?

I was thinking the Gox hack that saw a huge crash in 2011 I think it was about 1M coins stolen, I'm of the opinion Gox was running under a fractional reserve system ever since then but that's old news.

But yes I think the big Bitcoin guns know it's not who finishes with the most Bitcoin but who ends up with the most wealth. I hope it's whales selling off into old bids (the new faithful) collecting cash on the exchanges in preparation for a new rally, but I think the rally is months away.

The longer the better in my view it creates space for more numerous hands, and tests the resolve of Bitcoin proponents.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Melbustus
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October 04, 2014, 03:16:28 AM
 #13226

Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

not sure what you're referring to.  you mean the guy Kevin who stole around 2000BTC?

Although the evidence is circumstantial, a plausible case can be made that the great bitcoin theft actually took place in 2011, and all the following events were the result of Mark trying to fix it:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/


I've always liked that theory, *except* where is the ~1,000,000 BTC transaction (or handful of transactions adding up to that) in mid June 2011? (note: I've never bothered to look, but never heard anyone mention their existence, either).

Sidenote: It was the rebound from $0.01 to ~$17 after that hack that gave me enough confidence in the bitcoin economy/userbase to make my first purchases and sign up here. And I remember watching those penny trades in real-time. Crazy.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
Peter R
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October 04, 2014, 03:30:19 AM
 #13227


I've always liked that theory, *except* where is the ~1,000,000 BTC transaction (or handful of transactions adding up to that) in mid June 2011? (note: I've never bothered to look, but never heard anyone mention their existence, either).


Yes, that's a weakness of the theory indeed.  I only looked briefly (I never got into looking at specific transactions or any deeper blockchain analysis).  There's probably enough total output volume to conceal 1,000,000 coins, but it's certain no smoking gun.

There's no smoking gun, but there's enough output volume to conceal ~1,000,000 BTC.  Here's a graph of bitcoin transfers for June 2011 constructed from data I just pulled from blockchain.info.  Note that I'm not sure re time zones, so look at the 18, 19, and 20th when thinking about what happened at the time of the hack.  Also note this is a log scale so that both curves are readable.  



Remember that total output volume is 100% accurate, but blockchain.info's estimated transaction volume depends on an algorithm that attempts to identify change and may thus be unreliable.  

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
cypherdoc
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October 04, 2014, 03:34:33 AM
 #13228

Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.

I think the missing Gox BTC took us to $2 in 2011-12, this is the start of capitulation and whale re-balancing.

not sure what you're referring to.  you mean the guy Kevin who stole around 2000BTC?

Although the evidence is circumstantial, a plausible case can be made that the great bitcoin theft actually took place in 2011, and all the following events were the result of Mark trying to fix it:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1zdnop/peter_rs_theory_on_the_collapse_of_mt_gox/


I've always liked that theory, *except* where is the ~1,000,000 BTC transaction (or handful of transactions adding up to that) in mid June 2011? (note: I've never bothered to look, but never heard anyone mention their existence, either).

Sidenote: It was the rebound from $0.01 to ~$17 after that hack that gave me enough confidence in the bitcoin economy/userbase to make my first purchases and sign up here. And I remember watching those penny trades in real-time. Crazy.

yeah, while totaling those volume bars during few days is difficult, i don't see evidence of 1M BTC traded during that time.

btw, the current pullback was a result of Gox also.  it's a good thing they're out of biz:

Peter R
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October 04, 2014, 03:45:03 AM
 #13229

Melbustus, what do you think happened?  Or let me clarify: do you think a single entity controls (or recently controlled) the 750,000 missing GoxBTC?


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Melbustus
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October 04, 2014, 03:48:43 AM
 #13230


I've always liked that theory, *except* where is the ~1,000,000 BTC transaction (or handful of transactions adding up to that) in mid June 2011? (note: I've never bothered to look, but never heard anyone mention their existence, either).


Yes, that's a weakness of the theory indeed.  I only looked briefly (I never got into looking at specific transactions or any deeper blockchain analysis).  There's probably enough total output volume to conceal 1,000,000 coins, but it's certain no smoking gun.

There's no smoking gun, but there's enough output volume to conceal ~1,000,000 BTC.  Here's a graph of bitcoin transfers for June 2011 constructed from data I just pulled from blockchain.info.  Note that I'm not sure re time zones, so look at the 18, 19, and 20th when thinking about what happened at the time of the hack.  Also note this is a log scale so that both curves are readable.  



Remember that total output volume is 100% accurate, but blockchain.info's estimated transaction volume depends on an algorithm that attempts to identify change and may thus be unreliable.  


Indeed.

Regardless, I also can't shake the feeling that the Gox story somehow goes back to that hack. Maybe the attacker took an image of all the code or server state and was able to later exploit vulnerabilities over time allowing him to steal coins... Or maybe the attacker found and deleted hot private keys for kicks (and Karpeles was dumb enough to not have an offline backup). Who knows. None of the shorter-term-focused explanations fit, besides catastrophic key loss (which Karpeles could certainly be incompetent enough to allow).

In any event, I'm glad Gox is dead, but I'm not looking forward to the further drama that will inevitably result from the bankruptcy court case. Gox still manages to haunt us.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
smooth
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October 04, 2014, 03:50:40 AM
 #13231

yeah, while totaling those volume bars during few days is difficult, i don't see evidence of 1M BTC traded during that time.

If it was stolen, there is no reason to think it would have traded quickly. It probably would have moved on the blockchain, although if the thief had some reason to believe he got the only copy of the private keys (some sort of inside-ish job most likely), he might not even do that right away.

cypherdoc
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October 04, 2014, 03:56:12 AM
 #13232

yeah, while totaling those volume bars during few days is difficult, i don't see evidence of 1M BTC traded during that time.

If it was stolen, there is no reason to think it would have traded quickly. It probably would have moved on the blockchain, although if the thief had some reason to believe he got the only copy of the private keys (some sort of inside-ish job most likely), he might not even do that right away.



part of Peter's theory, though, is that 1M coins were sold driving the price down to $10.
blaaaaacksuit
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October 04, 2014, 03:56:45 AM
 #13233

Can anyone speculate as to what has been up with all the dumping?  Where are all these coins coming from?

My first guess would be that is the BTC that Karpeles stole.



That's what I've been thinking too this whole time. Wasn't sure if I was crazy.
cypherdoc
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October 04, 2014, 04:04:28 AM
 #13234

part of my problem with your theory, Peter, is that i was a buyer during the time from June to Nov.  i was in contact with Mark over IRC several times and i never got the feeling he was under pressure.  once, i had a problem withdrawing a chunk of coin and he had to write a script to get my coin out.  he shredded another chunk doing so but didn't pass that on to me.  and he shrugged it off as in no big deal. that single act made me a fan thereafter.  naively it turns out. fortunately, i didn't get hurt as a result.  but then there was also the Bitomat.pl bailout of 17000 BTC he donated to losers on that exchange.  along with numerous other philanthropic acts over the ensuing years.  
Melbustus
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October 04, 2014, 04:06:06 AM
 #13235

...Or let me clarify: do you think a single entity controls (or recently controlled) the 750,000 missing GoxBTC?


Doubt it, since it seems to me that Gox has been insolvent for a very long time (which fits with the rest of your theory, obv). That said, if the keys weren't simply lost/destroyed, I think it's likely that someone did control on the order of that many coins at some time during the 2nd half of 2011. I'd posit that they likely sold/spent the vast majority of them over the years, but who knows if they kept a bunch too.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
Melbustus
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October 04, 2014, 04:10:10 AM
 #13236

part of my problem with your theory, Peter, is that i was a buyer during the time from June to Nov.  i was in contact with Mark over IRC several times and i never got the feeling he was under pressure.  once, i had a problem withdrawing a chunk of coin and he had to write a script to get my coin out.  he shredded another chunk doing so but didn't pass that on to me.  and he shrugged it off as in no big deal. that single act made me a fan thereafter.  naively it turns out.  but then there was also the Bitomat.pl bailout of 17000 BTC he donated to losers on that exchange.  along with numerous other philanthropic acts over the ensuing years. 


I think he was just a careless and generally unconcerned guy. Never met him or interacted with him, but all his interviews, comments, and code seem that way to me.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
marcus_of_augustus
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October 04, 2014, 04:20:20 AM
 #13237

Quote
btw, the current pullback was a result of Gox also.  it's a good thing they're out of biz:

Gox has shutdown at all three major peaks ... we haven't had a blow-off top yet without a technical failure of the main centralised price discovery mechanism that initiates it.

smooth
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October 04, 2014, 04:21:58 AM
 #13238

yeah, while totaling those volume bars during few days is difficult, i don't see evidence of 1M BTC traded during that time.

If it was stolen, there is no reason to think it would have traded quickly. It probably would have moved on the blockchain, although if the thief had some reason to believe he got the only copy of the private keys (some sort of inside-ish job most likely), he might not even do that right away.



part of Peter's theory, though, is that 1M coins were sold driving the price down to $10.

Do you mean down to $2? In that case, even if true, the thief wouldn't necessarily have had to sell them all, only "enough" to drive the price down to $2 and extract whatever USD profit he wanted at the time. He could easily have held the rest of the coins, and perhaps could even be selling them now (100% speculation on that last of course).

cypherdoc
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October 04, 2014, 04:24:19 AM
 #13239

yeah, while totaling those volume bars during few days is difficult, i don't see evidence of 1M BTC traded during that time.

If it was stolen, there is no reason to think it would have traded quickly. It probably would have moved on the blockchain, although if the thief had some reason to believe he got the only copy of the private keys (some sort of inside-ish job most likely), he might not even do that right away.



part of Peter's theory, though, is that 1M coins were sold driving the price down to $10.

Do you mean down to $2? In that case, even if true, the thief wouldn't necessarily have had to sell them all, only "enough" to drive the price down to $2 and extract whatever USD profit he wanted at the time. He could easily have held the rest of the coins, and perhaps could even be selling them now (100% speculation on that last of course).



i'm just going by his Reddit write up which posits a 1M BTC selloff taking the price from 32 to 10.  as i said, i don't see those volume bars adding up to that #BTC trades during those few days.
Peter R
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October 04, 2014, 04:43:47 AM
 #13240

i'm just going by his Reddit write up which posits a 1M BTC selloff taking the price from 32 to 10.  as i said, i don't see those volume bars adding up to that #BTC trades during those few days.

I meant that a bunch of coins had recently been deposited at MtGox...they weren't necessarily traded.  I'm just trying to concoct a reasonable explanation for why the coins weren't in cold storage (my explanation is that Mark was disorganized and extremely busy during the May/June run up, and a bunch of coins flooded into Gox during this time and left sitting on his server).  Of course, this assumes the theft even took place--something that may not be true.  

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