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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 2022644 times)
Nekrobios
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October 08, 2014, 08:44:45 PM
 #13561

Trolls are pro trend, they will always follow the price rather than lead. I don't believe in a big activity of paid actors on this forum. Trolls are typically just minor sadists who enjoy irritating others.

I also like the Pantera part. It's very believable to me that they had the ability to bite the wall on Sunday night/early Monday because they are investors in the exchange. However, Loaded made a post to the effect that his fiat had arrived around the time of buy. I'm too lazy to check the exact time of post and buy because I just don't much care who bought it. And again, don't forget that more than 2/3 of the 30k have likely not been eaten by a single actor, at least not in a single trade. 1) It was bought, 2) We can infer why it was bought, that's enough for my purposes.
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October 08, 2014, 08:45:59 PM
 #13562

Blitz is part of it Shocked
Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right? Cheesy

just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window.

there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday.  sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows.
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October 08, 2014, 08:48:44 PM
 #13563

Blitz is part of it Shocked
Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right? Cheesy

just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window.

there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday.  sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows.
More evidence? I forgot, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160 was also banned (temporarily). Name some others that suspiciously discontinued their activity, perhaps they too were banned recently?

PS: fallling is by far the worst spammer of the bunch, so I consider him the prime indicator in this matter.
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October 08, 2014, 08:49:23 PM
 #13564

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.
It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes. 

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.
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October 08, 2014, 08:55:12 PM
 #13565

Blitz is part of it Shocked
Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=809325.0

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right? Cheesy

just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window.

there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday.  sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows.
More evidence? I forgot, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=159160 was also banned (temporarily). Name some others that suspiciously discontinued their activity, perhaps they too were banned recently?

PS: fallling is by far the worst spammer of the bunch, so I consider him the prime indicator in this matter.

how many of the trolls did you ban?  can you name them?

that doesn't negate falllling's registration date of May 27, 2014, btw.
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October 08, 2014, 08:56:10 PM
 #13566

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.
It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes. 

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.

Maybe it was monday in whatever part of the world he was in at that point.
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October 08, 2014, 08:58:46 PM
 #13567

ok, i'm going to have to refine my conspiracy theory on the BearWhale.  he is a distraction.  i now think the main benefactor of a manufactured selloff was economic actor Pantera Capital.

let me further say, this type of analysis is purely in fun and based on anecdotes. i am not accusing them of anything and will be happy to be corrected.  if i'm right, i don't necessarily have anything against them for manipulating the market like i'm theorizing.  i just find this one of the more interesting events in Bitcoin history and find it fun to theorize how and why it happened:

developments since the selloff that have occurred after my original theory about it being a non-economic actor:

1.  Dan Moorehead @dan_pantera, the day after the selloff, comes out with a detailed series of tweets focusing attention on the movements of address 159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq convincing me that the 30K dumper was indeed a whale who simply capitulated to the selloff pressure:

https://twitter.com/dan_pantera

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

associated data and assumptions:

1.  @PanteraCapital & @RonGlantz popped up as my Twitter followers since spring/summer and i know they follow this thread.  here's the tinfoil stuff and it's truly not meant to feed my ego but since June, i've had the funny feeling that very often when i would put up a bullish post, it was immediately met with a selloff.  it got so bad that @kLee1977 told me "you bring bad luck!" to which i replied:

"@kLee1977 actually, u know wht? i bet those ask wall manipulators key off bulltards like me. long term tho, i'd bet on me Wink"

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/510080984243765248

2.  the day of the selloff, Oct 5, i sent this tweet to @PanteraCapital @BitstampUSD @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric:

"hey @PanteraCapital. u guys r invested in @BitstampUSD. y don't u ask @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric whats goin on with the huge wall?"

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/518969201814683648

never got a response from any of them.  i would have expected at least a denial.

3.  i think since June, Pantera used it's known considerable BTC resources obtained in the early days of Bitcoin, to sell/short down the market with a bot and occasional 1000 BTC chunks, keying off known bulls like myself to knock the market down with the goal of causing a whale or whales to finally capitulate, at which time they'd buy back the sold coins or cover shorted coins back at a cheaper price, at what turned out to be in this case @$300.  i doubt they had a specific price point; they were simply hunting for a large selloff source from a weak whale.

4.  a large economic actor like Pantera could afford to hire forum and Reddit trolls to help talk down the price.  no matter what anyone says, this type of trolling is effective in destroying confidence.  it is also well known that when there are big price moves either way ppl come to these meeting places to find out what's going on.  the fact that Severro, antibitcoinconsortium, falllling, etc. have all abruptly disappeared since Sunday indicate to me they were on hire by someone with substantial resources to manipulate the market.

5.  Pantera Capital is the major investor in Bitstamp and clearly has a close relationship with its founders.  only they would have the resources and confidence to leave large amounts of BTC and fiat on an unregulated exchange awaiting opportunities, manufactured or otherwise, considering what happened to mtgox clients.  

now it's time for them to talk the price up with bullish reports.

i welcome any thoughts or criticisms.
Off topic: I could not RT you, I unfollowed and followed back and now I can! Weird  Huh
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October 08, 2014, 08:59:05 PM
 #13568

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.
It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes. 

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.

Maybe it was monday in whatever part of the world he was in at that point.

who knows how to translate Slovenian time to forum time?

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
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October 08, 2014, 09:00:00 PM
 #13569

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?
What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.
It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg9100535#msg9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit.  With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes. 

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.

Midnight PST (my time) is what  9 or 10 AM in Europe?  Entirely plausible, in my book.
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October 08, 2014, 09:01:07 PM
 #13570

Off topic: I could not RT you, I unfollowed and followed back and now I can! Weird  Huh

Stephen Gornick pm'd me this morning and informed me about the retweet problem.  so i figured out how to undo that setting.  sorry!

i vaguely recall someone using the initials "RT" in a message, was that you?  i just realized that means "retweet".
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October 08, 2014, 09:05:43 PM
 #13571

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure. Cheesy
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October 08, 2014, 09:08:43 PM
 #13572

This is the most plausible theory I've heard to date, Cypher.

But let me get this straight: you're suggesting that the 30k wall belonged to a panicking early adopter and was in fact the "desert" that Pantera was after the entire time.  Correct?

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time Smiley )

correct.  given that you believe there has been a manipulator taking down prices since June. 

Blitz, you know me better than that.  back in 2011, i was the one arguing against any manipulation back then and ever since.  this is the only event in which i've invoked a manipulator mechanism.

and if there has been a manipulator, Pantera is the logical entity with the strategic positioning in place to pull it off.  leave tons of BTC and fiat on the exchange in preparation and simply sell down the market until the market capitulates, then buy back.  rather simple, really, which is also why i like it.
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October 08, 2014, 09:08:54 PM
 #13573

Off topic: I could not RT you, I unfollowed and followed back and now I can! Weird  Huh

Stephen Gornick pm'd me this morning and informed me about the retweet problem.  so i figured out how to undo that setting.  sorry!

i vaguely recall someone using the initials "RT" in a message, was that you?  i just realized that means "retweet".
Yeap, it was me!
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October 08, 2014, 09:09:07 PM
 #13574



who knows how to translate Slovenian time to forum time?

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Yes

Edit:
Not the whole wall, just the bulk of the last couple minutes worth - 12 - 14k at that time.
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October 08, 2014, 09:12:10 PM
 #13575

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure. Cheesy

let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said

who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded?

and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday?  pure luck?
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October 08, 2014, 09:20:01 PM
 #13576

this is just great; your Fed is worried you will have too much purchasing power.  and they wonder why ppl are pissed:

Gold Turns Higher After Fed Frets Over Strong Dollar

http://online.wsj.com/articles/gold-prices-extend-gains-for-third-straight-day-on-global-growth-concerns-1412778274
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October 08, 2014, 09:21:51 PM
 #13577

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure. Cheesy

let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said

who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded?

and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday?  pure luck?

Nope. If he had the cash there,  he likely would have eaten the whole wall in  a couple bites. As it was it took 6 or so hours, and he got less than half of it. 
Money talks. He got somebody out of bed, or flew in with a suitcase full of cash, who knows, he didn't share details - but he has in the past.
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October 08, 2014, 09:24:36 PM
 #13578

I don't really dismiss conspired multi-month massive manipulation per se, I just think that a) it's unlikely and b) even if it were true, it just means that the conditions of Bitcoin allowed it to be manipulated. Study the conditions, describe degree of susceptibility to manipulation.

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure. Cheesy

let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said

who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded?

and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday?  pure luck?
What do you mean, "way more than what he said"? I just meant to say that his post isn't proof that whoever is behind his account initiated the buy because it happened after the buy was made. It could be indicative though, given he showed activity 2-3 minutes post buy; we already know he has access to 40k coins and I'm certain he did buy at various points in the past bubble when he said he did. BTW, the buy was actually only a fifth of the original 30k wall (about 6k), and this along with the fact that it took until Monday morning does seem to indicate that it was actually fresh funds, therefore Loaded fits the narrative.

I don't know if he knew, I doubt he did. I'd assume it was a routine transfer and thus a lucky coincidence.

Anyway, this is all fruitless discussion I normally don't participate in, but it can be fun to do so. It just probably won't deliver any insight that'll make us more money. Cheesy
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October 08, 2014, 09:29:26 PM
 #13579

I don't really dismiss conspired multi-month massive manipulation per se, I just think that a) it's unlikely and b) even if it were true, it just means that the conditions of Bitcoin allowed it to be manipulated. Study the conditions, describe degree of susceptibility to manipulation.

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?
Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure. Cheesy

let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said

who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded?

and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday?  pure luck?
What do you mean, "way more than what he said"? I just meant to say that his post isn't proof that whoever is behind his account initiated the buy because it happened after the buy was made. It could be indicative though, given he showed activity 2-3 minutes post buy; we already know he has access to 40k coins and I'm certain he did buy at various points in the past bubble when he said he did. BTW, the buy was actually only a fifth of the original 30k wall (about 6k), and this along with the fact that it took until Monday morning does seem to indicate that it was actually fresh funds, therefore Loaded fits the narrative.

I don't know if he knew, I doubt he did. I'd assume it was a routine transfer and thus a lucky coincidence.

Anyway, this is all fruitless discussion I normally don't participate in, but it can be fun to do so. It just probably won't deliver any insight that'll make us more money. Cheesy

It's all there in the wall observer thread. A lot to go through,  I know.  I just happened to watch it all live.
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October 08, 2014, 09:36:21 PM
 #13580

Nope. If he had the cash there,  he likely would have eaten the whole wall in  a couple bites. As it was it took 6 or so hours, and he got less than half of it.  
Money talks. He got somebody out of bed, or flew in with a suitcase full of cash, who knows, he didn't share details - but he has in the past.

you seriously believe that?  flew the cash in?  got someone out of bed and got all that cash there in <6h?  to Slovenia?  and how well do you know this guy?  there are a lot of big talkers on the interwebz.

all he said is this: "Fiat arrives (finally.)"  did he actually say he bought the wall?

no, no.  it's WAY more likely Pantera Capital, being an equity owner and close associate of the founders, would be the ones there waiting with the required large amount of fiat to take down the wall.
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