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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1804733 times)
brg444
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Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks


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October 01, 2014, 09:34:15 PM
 #13141

"The Blockchain may only ever be applicable to Bitcoin as Money".
I think you can make an even stronger statement:

"A distributed consensus ledger can only survive if it is successful as money."

Note that Bitcoin did not solve the Byzantine Generals Problem because that problem is unsolvable. Bitcoin made it so that any successful attack is uneconomical. That only works if bitcoins are valued as money.

This means anything that tries to replace Bitcoin's functionality will either do so by being better money or else won't be a distributed consensus ledger.

Most early Bitcoin adopters agree that Bitcoin's properties make it money and that "BTC as valuable money" is necessary for the blockchain to function.

An issue for the next phase of adoption though is the next set of adopters do not agree with this largely due to different political views on what constitutes money. Most people I know believe money can only be defined by a government and only functions if it is "managed" by a central body with the power to "expand supply to grow with the economy". (Nevermind this is never actually implemented in practice.) And so refuse to trust in anything else.

The argument that Bitcoin is money is not going to drive adoption, that only served to kick start adoption with politically aligned individuals.

Instead Bitcoin's usefulness as money will have to be the next driver for adoption. Either people find it easier to use online, or merchants offer BTC discounts, or people use Bitcoin to engage in illegal forms of trade, or automated services (bots) find BTC useful to trade, etc. This is where Bitcoin as a superior technology over fiat (a hundred year old technology) becomes a dominate factor.

I have to disagree for a couple of reasons.

The pool of potential adopters that understand the value of a limited supply assets as money is far from saturated (see: gold market)

This next set of adopters you are referring to certainly are in the dark as to what constitutes money but most of them are familiar with concepts of store of value that can appreciate with demand like gold and other precious metals.

Now, for numerous reasons this mainstream audience, a whole generation really, has not had much interest investing into these assets considering the general bear market they have been in and the inconvenience of investing into them.

Enter Bitcoin. For the first time in history, gold is available in digital form at the click of a button and can be purchased with a credit card (Circle).

Political ideologies or usefulness is not required to drive the next adoption phase. All we need is greed. All we need is for Bitcoin to get close to ATH again and we are off to the races.

"I believe this will be the ultimate fate of Bitcoin, to be the "high-powered money" that serves as a reserve currency for banks that issue their own digital cash." Hal Finney, Dec. 2010
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October 01, 2014, 10:15:36 PM
 #13142

The price of silver got slammed in September, as sales of 1oz American Eagles doubled at the US Mint. Sales of 1oz gold coins went from 21,000 in August to 50,000 in September. 

Sales figures for 1oz Silver coins via the US Mint. The October figures are probably September sales that didn't get reported.
 
July             1,975,000
August     2,007,500
September  4,140,000
October     1,150,000

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October 01, 2014, 10:32:37 PM
 #13143

All of financial history is littered with powerful demonstrations of how capital seeks the best form of money necessary to route around friction, capital controls, bad laws, regulatory overreach and capture. The crescendo of complexity of all these friction-inducing factors building in the current financial system makes Bitcoin inevitable. In fact, the harder they try to stop it the more desirable it will become to the market.

In the same way that they are trying to outlaw privacy on your computing devices, such that any sane individual becomes a criminal, then an effective outlawing of financial privacy will make all users of good money criminals. At that point, nobody has anything to lose by disregarding the financial regulations and bitcoin is the most frictionless way to route around a damaged, overly-complex failing system, to date.
...and that's the difference between people who are in this to make a quick buck, and people who are in this to build the tools that serve the future in which we want to live.
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October 01, 2014, 10:52:19 PM
 #13144

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. - Alan Greenspan

hmmmm...
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October 01, 2014, 10:54:54 PM
 #13145

Quote
Political ideologies or usefulness is not required to drive the next adoption phase. All we need is greed. All we need is for Bitcoin to get close to ATH again and we are off to the races.

... thus the powerful forces now aligning against any expansion in future Bitcoin price expectations.

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October 01, 2014, 10:59:36 PM
 #13146

More ecommerce bullion dealers taking on bitcoin integration

http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/10/largest-precious-metals-comparison-site-integrates-bitcoin/

“It’s clear to me that Bitcoin will become a staple of eCommerce bullion dealers. Paying with Bitcoin often enables the consumer to enjoy immediate shipping (no need to wait for checks to clear or bankwire fees), while ensuring that the dealer always receives their payment. When bullion dealers integrate Bitcoin as a payment option, consumers enjoy the fastest service as there is no need to wait for payment to clear, and gold and silver dealers eliminate the need for a ‘market loss policy’ by collecting payment upfront.”
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October 01, 2014, 11:48:37 PM
 #13147

All we need is greed. All we need is for Bitcoin to get close to ATH again and we are off to the races.

you beat me to it, altho it doesn't need to get to the ATH.

all that is needed is for the price to start rising again.
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October 01, 2014, 11:51:57 PM
 #13148

this made me laugh.  but it's true and quite clever.  Daniel is the only guy with any substance at the Nakamoto Institute:

Every government agent has the opportunity and incentive to be an early adopter today, and the greater the incentive, the more likely is it that any government attack will be sabotaged by an early adopter among the agents carrying out the attack.

http://bitcoinist.net/bitcoins-obscene-wealth-disparity-is-a-feature/

i think it is amusing when thinking about a gvt led 51% attack in mining.
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October 02, 2014, 12:10:06 AM
 #13149

since we spent some time talking about the blockchain today, it occurred to me that it would be interesting to compare the costs of global accounting with the Bitcoin market cap, given that the blockchain is just one big ledger.  i didn't do much other than google the top 100 accounting firms in the world and eyeball add what appears to be their networth.  the top 10 total approx. $6 billion in value which is more than Bitcoin's $5 billion at this point.  and that's not counting all the other global firms and types of accounting at corporate and small business levels.  if someone wanted to do a more in depth analysis, it would make for a great study:

http://www.brw.com.au/lists/top-100-accounting-firms/2013/
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October 02, 2014, 02:23:35 AM
 #13150

we're gonna get a long awaited gold bounce for the gold bugs, maybe up to the resistance level as drawn:



the mirror image of this should be a drop in $DXY down to its support level:


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October 02, 2014, 02:46:17 AM
 #13151

Cypher, what are your thoughts on short term silver? I want to take a longer term position but short term I'm still worried.
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October 02, 2014, 02:49:46 AM
 #13152

Cypher, what are your thoughts on short term silver? I want to take a longer term position but short term I'm still worried.

Silver moves with gold. Short term up but beyond that, down.
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October 02, 2014, 03:03:59 AM
 #13153

Cypher, what are your thoughts on short term silver? I want to take a longer term position but short term I'm still worried.

Silver moves with gold. Short term up but beyond that, down.

Yep. We're each responsible for our financial bets. I like silver just for its industrial use but the physical purchase of coins in the last few weeks indicates to me it has some legs.
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October 02, 2014, 04:09:20 AM
 #13154

we're gonna get a long awaited gold bounce for the gold bugs, maybe up to the resistance level as drawn:



the mirror image of this should be a drop in $DXY down to its support level:




I think we head up for awhile now on gold...lets see
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October 02, 2014, 08:52:07 AM
 #13155

good sum up of the market's current situation: http://btccharts.everdot.org/bullbearsept2014.pdf
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October 02, 2014, 10:27:51 AM
 #13156

Most people I know believe money can only be defined by a government and only functions if it is "managed" by a central body with the power to "expand supply to grow with the economy". (Nevermind this is never actually implemented in practice.) And so refuse to trust in anything else.
Most people know more about how electricity works than they understand how money works (this includes the people who issue and control the money).

We know that electricity works in spite of how few people understand it.

Bitcoin will be the same. It will be adopted because it works long before people really understand how and why it works.

Yes. Most people believe that money is a 'thing'. But it isn't. Money is debt and never had been something different. Gold and Gold 2.0 are more or less liquid commodities.

A second major argument of the book is that, contrary to standard accounts of the history of money, debt is likely the oldest means of trade, with cash and barter transactions being later developments. Debt, the book argues, has typically retained its primacy, with cash and barter usually limited to situations of low trust involving strangers or those not considered credit-worthy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years

"Staat nenne ich's, wo alle Gifttrinker sind, Gute und Schlimme: Staat, wo alle sich selber verlieren, Gute und Schlimme:
Staat, wo der langsame Selbstmord aller – »das Leben« heisst."
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October 02, 2014, 10:32:54 AM
 #13157

That could be a very interesting service: Netagio launches his exchange between Gold, GBP and Bitcoin.

http://www.netagio.com/

The British Bitcoin industry is entering a phase of innovation and Netagio is proud to be a driver of change in the industry. This summer, in July, we successfully launched the first British peer-to-peer exchange that  allows both retail customers and institutional investors to trade gold, Bitcoins and GBP on the same platform.

Articoli bitcoin: Il portico dipinto
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October 02, 2014, 03:11:26 PM
 #13158

Dow down again.  for sure we'll get a weekly sell signal by the end of tomorrow unless something gets done quick.

VIX on the rise yet again and looking to break out.  fear is on the rise.

sounds simple enough, but diversify out of some risk assets and into something non-correlated:

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October 02, 2014, 03:31:22 PM
 #13159


Given that we know the BGP is mathematically unsolvable

i've heard this a few times already.

can u give a simple layman's description to why this is?

Allright I took fischer's provability class so I'll give it a go:

First of all whether BGP is solvable or not depends on the "powers" given to the honest vs. lying generals.  Can the honest generals "broadcast" a message to everyone else?  Can lying generals "intercept" and rewrite messages?  Do you have a mostly-synchronized clock, or even a local sense of time?  So papers basically define these "powers" and then prove a yes or no result based on them.

Let me try to couch why BGP is sometimes unsolvable in what you are familiar with: bitcoin.  Let's just say we choose one node to grab all txns and add them to the blockchain.  That node can't steal $ because it can't sign the txns.  But it could insist that there are no txns, or disappear.  If it insists there are no txns (but there are) then no progress is made (algorithm is halted).  If it disappears, can you just choose another?  No because you can't prove that it is really gone vs just slow.  That is, it could seem to disappear causing the rest of the network to pick another "issuer".  Then both nodes post a block at the exact same moment resulting in half the nodes using block A and the other half B [1].  Could you then get the network to "settle" on one of the 2 blocks?  Well, doing so is equivalent to solving the original problem (picking a block in the first place), so the above strategy made zero progress solving this problem.  

But note that if you had some relatively consistent sense of elapsed time (an additional "power"), say all nodes have time accuracy within an interval E (say 5 min), you could do something like:  the announcer has until time X to announce a block, at time X+E, we choose another announcer [2].  Ok that works but it requires a synchronized clock.  No clock is ever synchronized perfectly.  So in practice it solves 99.99% of the problem, but what happens if the announcer issues the block exactly at time X+E.  So half of the nodes will think that it is valid, the other half will reject.  So now we have to decide whether to accept the proposed block or not.  Doing so is equivalent to the original problem.  We have made no progress.

How about you use a "fitness function" to choose the best block?  Perhaps use the longest block (most txns in it).  This doesn't work because at any time someone could add a few more txns to a very old block and reissue it, wiping out the blockchain up to that point.  That is, an uncooperative node could cause the algorithm to never make progress.  Ok so let's say once the block is issued it can't be "unissued".  But what if 2 nodes "issue" conflicting blocks simultaneously.  We have to pick one.  Oops, we are back to square one!  (and what does "issued" mean anyway -- in fact it is not definable in a p2p network).

Bitcoin itself does not even solve the problem.  At any time, someone could show up with an alternate blockchain that is full of empty blocks since 2009 (say he's secretly been racing with the public chain) and all clients would switch to that chain where no transactions have happened.  So in fact from a theoretical perspective the algorithm can be proved to never make progress.  However, from a practical perspective this is unlikely to happen, and if it did, I as a community we could throw in some kind of hard coded change (essentially a centralized decision hard-coded in a new client) that forces "our" chain to be chosen.  

So what's cool about Bitcoin is if it breaks down it can essentially "devolve" into (worst case) a centralized scheme.  No worse then we had before Bitcoin (and actually a whole lot better in other metrics).


[1] http://cs-www.cs.yale.edu/homes/arvind/cs425/doc/fischer.pdf
[2] http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/um/people/lamport/pubs/reaching.pdf
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October 02, 2014, 03:38:13 PM
 #13160

Dow -109
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