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Question: Will you support Gavin's new block size limit hard fork of 8MB by January 1, 2016 then doubling every 2 years?
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Author Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.  (Read 1805452 times)
cypherdoc
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October 09, 2014, 07:09:59 PM
 #13681

Dow - 321
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rocks
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October 09, 2014, 07:15:48 PM
 #13682

...
no, if there indeed was manipulation, the easiest and most straight forward way to do it would be to keep selling small and large chunks of BTC at the market over a 4 mo time all the while waiting with a large chunk of fiat on the #1 exchange that you happen to own waiting for a weak BTC loaded whale to panic dump.

if anyone knows of any addresses that are owned by Bitstamp and Pantera, those would be an interesting place to start looking for confirmatory movements or accumulations of BTC.

The part I find difficult about this theory is the strategy of selling a large percentage of your coins with the hope of re-buying later to double your holdings has failed throughout most of bitcoin's history. Rarely one has been able to get lucky and time it right to successfully gain a double. Instead most of the time the price has unexpectedly run +10x causing a massive loss denominated in BTC if your timing wasn't perfect.

Bearwhale dumped 0.2% of all coins in existence onto the market over a short period, and the market brought in a ton of fresh money to buy them all at $300, indicating what I believe is a price level where the market will continue to add fresh funds.

The problem with dumping BTC to drop the price and buy back lower, is you never know what this price level is where other participants will add in fresh money and raise the price.

Instead, I think the most likely reason for the 2014 weakness is simply that the price ran up 100x in the preceding year.  Many people were sitting on massive gains and the most sensible thing for them to do was to sell some of those gains to lock in life changing items such as buying a house.

If you consider people's past holdings, 2014 might have seen a few Million BTC being sold by early adopters re-balancing their savings in addition to the 1.3M coins created in 2014. I suspect this rebalancing process might be nearing completion with bearwhale's capitulation, which will relieve selling pressure allowing the price to continue now.
solex
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October 09, 2014, 07:46:53 PM
 #13683

rocks, Great summary of the historical long-term situation. I agree 100%.

Looking forward now, 20 months to the next halving, the assumption might be that this event is priced in. And should be, but whatever floor is under the price in the run-up to 12.5 btc blocks, will certainly hold, because new money pouring in will then be chasing coins that are unavailable at anything like the current price.

cypherdoc
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October 09, 2014, 07:55:13 PM
 #13684

Not saying it did happen,  just saying a  unique condition is in place for them to take advantage. The fact that Ron Glantz & Pantera Capital follow me on Twitter I suppose should be flattering but I remain suspicious of the timing of selloffs with many of my posts.

 Not to mention the somewhat irresponsible price projections and republishing of the $4.2M projection 2d after the selloff and the disappearance of trolls.

Oh well.  
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October 09, 2014, 08:01:54 PM
 #13685

rocks,  the only thing I'd  say there is that liquidity has been extra tight since gox went down.  The AML/KYC stuff has stopped alot of people from creating accounts. This happened to me until Circle only this last week.

Pantera can presumably see into the order book.  Maybe. They have lots of coin. Would they take advantage of the situation? Who knows.
blaaaaacksuit
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October 09, 2014, 08:07:27 PM
 #13686

You guys are watching this right? http://www.onlinevideoservice.com/clients/cftc/video.htm?eventid=cftclive
Adrian-x
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October 09, 2014, 08:10:35 PM
 #13687

...

The problem with dumping BTC to drop the price and buy back lower, is you never know what this price level is where other participants will add in fresh money and raise the price...

It's my view if you're still a big player in the game you're goal is to gain wealth and see Bitcoin succeeded. Dumping to buy back lower is a strategy but not the best growth strategy. From my perch when economic energy is spreading, and an ultimate success criteria is spreading the adoption there is an economic advantage to dump and buy back at a loss if your overall holdings are more valuable even when you have less coins, on the positive side one ends up with energy to affect to price upwards.

Not that this is happening but it's expected to happen either by mistake or by deliberation. The end goal is maximizing adoption on a normal distribution curve.

If this was Pantera, and it could be I hope they're not leveraging over at bitfinex. That's going to add another layer of complexity.


Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Adrian-x
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October 09, 2014, 08:30:33 PM
 #13688

If this was Pantera, and it could be I hope they're not leveraging over at bitfinex. That's going to add another layer of complexity.

You way early guys have you chances at cheap coins, now the wealthy USD guys are using their resources to amass coins - in the end we are all happy - just give it time.

PATIENCE is what Bitcoiners lack.
Up to now I think we all have a chance at cheap coins Smiley as for patients I've managed to hold on to just a little - Bitcoin is a market with ADD.

Hold (just give it time) has been the best strategy, Bitcoin wins but "most in this space will lose money - cypherdoc" ™ holds true. And we're in for more surprises when the incumbents learn how to play.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
Bagatell
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October 09, 2014, 08:40:13 PM
 #13689

incumbents

They who cannot be named..Antonoplous used the term a number of times in his latest video.
Pruden
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Sirius Iberia - Nos tomamos el Bitcoin en serio


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October 09, 2014, 08:42:44 PM
 #13690

I remain suspicious of the timing of selloffs with many of my posts.

Or you could be a terrible daytrader during Bitcoin bear markets.  Grin

(Sorry, it was just too tempting, but may it serve as a humbling reminder that it's the market who is right, not you)

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October 09, 2014, 08:46:34 PM
 #13691

incumbents

They who cannot be named..Antonoplous used the term a number of times in his latest video.
They who have the ability to benefit from the existing fiat system at the expense of the whole, rather to numerous to name.

Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
YogoH
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October 09, 2014, 08:49:46 PM
 #13692

This CFTC meeting is bullish as fuck!
blaaaaacksuit
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October 09, 2014, 08:50:57 PM
 #13693

This CFTC meeting is bullish as fuck!

Seems like everyone is itching to dump
Melbustus
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October 09, 2014, 09:05:26 PM
 #13694

This CFTC meeting is bullish as fuck!


The commissioner's closing remarks were indeed quite positive. He prefaced the following by noting that he considered the Professor's (panelist Houman Shadab) remarks about tying assets to the blockchain quite fascinating. He continued:

Quote
...
And it just seems like based on what I have learned, some of those applications could be so compelling that it would be a real mistake for us as a commission to not make sure we are staying on top of these development's. Not, because we want to do anything other than understand the developments because it seems like this protocol, the Bitcoin protocol or something like it is very, very likely here to stay.
So the more information and education we can do on this now in trying to stay somewhere on the appropriate spot of the learning curve, it seems to be a very sensible thing to do.
So I think that it has been very, very helpful



Edit: And as usual, Jerry Brito nailed it. He dealt with a lot of the really annoying and difficult questions like how to explain the implications of "open source", or "mining", or "is it a currency or commodity" to regulators. I don't envy the job of trying to distill a topic which takes *months* for smart people to understanding into a 30 second summary, on the spot.

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
iCEBREAKER
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October 10, 2014, 03:03:26 AM
 #13695

The fact that people will manipulate financial markets for fun and profit is evident by the last 100 years of history.  People are in jail for doing so in regulated markets.

Government regulation is the worst form of manipulation.  Only force and fraud should be a reason to jail people.

Have you failed to notice that as regulatory capture deepens, the manipulation gets worse?

The captured regulators you so cherish deserve longer sentences than the more honest criminals who do not act under color of law.

Your domesticated, anti-market attitude is the reason we suffer under TBTF and TBTJ, and the other unintended consequences of forcing the invisible hand.  Enjoy the rotten fruit of your good intentions!   Wink

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
solex
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October 10, 2014, 03:15:24 AM
 #13696

Alarm bells have got to be ringing on this SNAFU (and a much higher inflation rate imminent)



Federal Reserve balance sheet as a % of GDP

FNG
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October 10, 2014, 03:20:25 AM
 #13697

Alarm bells have got to be ringing on this SNAFU (and a much higher inflation rate imminent)



Federal Reserve balance sheet as a % of GDP
Someone has to prop up the markets  Roll Eyes

I cannot comprehend how confidence has still not been completely lost
iCEBREAKER
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October 10, 2014, 04:01:12 AM
 #13698

This CFTC meeting is bullish as fuck!
The commissioner's closing remarks were indeed quite positive. He prefaced the following by noting that he considered the Professor's (panelist Houman Shadab) remarks about tying assets to the blockchain quite fascinating. He continued:

 Shocked  Is there a Tube?  I know Houman from way back and am pleasantly surprised to see him again, in the eye of the Hurricane Bitcoin no less!    Cool Cool Cool

The difference between bad and well-developed digital cash will determine whether we have a dictatorship or a real democracy.  David Chaum 1996
Fungibility provides privacy as a side effect.  Adam Back 2014
"Monero" : { Private - Auditable - 100% Fungible - Flexible Blocksize - Wild & Free® - Intro - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - Dice - Blackjack - Github - Android }


Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016
Blocks must necessarily be full for the Bitcoin network to be able to pay for its own security.  davout 2015
Blocksize is an intentionally limited resource, like the 21e6 BTC limit.  Changing it degrades the surrounding economics, creating negative incentives.  Jeff Garzik 2013


"I believed @Dashpay instamine was a bug & not a feature but then read: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=421615.msg13017231#msg13017231
I'm not against people making money, but can't support questionable origins."
https://twitter.com/Tone_LLT/status/717822927908024320


The raison d'être of bitcoin is trustlessness. - Eric Lombrozo 2015
It is an Engineering Requirement that Bitcoin be “Above the Law”  Paul Sztorc 2015
Resiliency, not efficiency, is the paramount goal of decentralized, non-state sanctioned currency -Jon Matonis 2015

Bitcoin is intentionally designed to be ungovernable and governance-free.  luke-jr 2016

Technology tends to move in the direction of making surveillance easier, and the ability of computers to track us doubles every eighteen months. - Phil Zimmerman 2013

The only way to make software secure, reliable, and fast is to make it small. Fight Features. - Andy Tanenbaum 2004

"Hard forks cannot be co
zeetubes
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October 10, 2014, 04:08:57 AM
 #13699

Alarm bells have got to be ringing on this SNAFU (and a much higher inflation rate imminent)



Federal Reserve balance sheet as a % of GDP
Someone has to prop up the markets  Roll Eyes

I cannot comprehend how confidence has still not been completely lost

The bulk of that money is disappearing into the black hole otherwise known as the banks' balance sheets. Which is probably north of $300T so it's only the comparatively smaller chunks that show up in the mainstream economy, causing mild inflation in the US. Some of the inflation that would otherwise show up is being exported courtesy of the Fed, especially to Asia. Frothy real estate markets like Singapore, Shanghai, HK, Sydney are starting to show some cracks at the high end with failed auctions. But high-end art and collectibles are still selling well. Despite what the fed mouthpieces are saying I don't see any way they can end QE(ternity) without a complete collapse, although they may sneak it in via another bs program. I think all we need now is a black swan to really kick things into gear. Ebola?
zeetubes
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October 10, 2014, 04:10:03 AM
 #13700

This CFTC meeting is bullish as fuck!
The commissioner's closing remarks were indeed quite positive. He prefaced the following by noting that he considered the Professor's (panelist Houman Shadab) remarks about tying assets to the blockchain quite fascinating. He continued:

 Shocked  Is there a Tube?  I know Houman from way back and am pleasantly surprised to see him again, in the eye of the Hurricane Bitcoin no less!    Cool Cool Cool

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNGFZDO8mM
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