Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[cypherdoc]

Dow/Bitcoin
 -0.322
Uncorrelated

According to current trends in our data, this value is unlikely to behave as an indicator for bitcoin price movement

https://www.kimonolabs.com/bitcoin/correlator

I think the -0.322 correlation is for bticoin versus crude_oil.

That's the default on page load, I click DOW, it updates the raw data window but the chart and main value still relate to crude

You're right. Seems to have picked up a glitch since I last used the site.

also, correlations based on 1-2 days of data are trivial.  furthermore, the past may not correlate with the future.

there are some very good theoretical arguments why Bitcoin might begin to thrive in the presence of traditional financial turmoil.

[1714220015]

1714220015

[cypherdoc]

...

But how would Coinbase getting raided be bullish for btc? This would destroy all kinds of businesses acceping btc...

I doubt Coinbase would be shut down as they've gone overboard with their AML. it's just a rumor at this point anyways, probably from an altscam proponent.

I don't think anyone said anything about Coinbase. Here's the original IRC transcript of this rumor:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2iujgv/secfincen_preparing_action_against_us_bitcoin/

Appears solely relevant to "Bitcoin 2.0" companies.


The tldr quote:
"[6:08:29 PM] taariq lewis: If you are in USA and you run a Bitcoin Business that issues tokens and you are not registered with FinCen, expect these fines to be established guidelines going forward"

BitsharesX seems vulnerable to this, if true.

Even though it's Invictus Innovation (based in Virginia) that has written the code, BitSharesX was purposefully (to avoid this kind of problems) released by a Hong Kong firm.

That doesn't matter at all if they still have investors/users from the USA.

To prevent that problem, Invictus didn't get money from investors, they only get money from donators.

And there are probably people who use BitSharesX from USA indeed, but that's like every other coins including Bitcoin.

I wouldn't think that would make a differenc.  The mere act of allowing the trading of shares without SEC or Fincen regulation would be a problem no matter where you reside.

[smoothie]

I'm waiting for the next world financial crisis first before I even think of selling my coins.

When people run from fiat it will be epic. Most people do not see life concerning money as a monopoly game. Literally it is paper and in most cases just electronic entries created with no effort. I've seen family, friends, and acquaintances go ape shit over fiat paper and fiat digits in the recent past. It blows my mind how attached people are to their monopoly money.

A list of events that mark bitcoin's success through failure of bitcoin businesses/scams:

First it was MyBitcoin

Then it was Bitcoinica

Then it was PirateAt40

Then it was Silk Road

Then it was MT GOX

Then it was Butterfly Labs

...when people are willing to scam, cheat, and steal bitcoin...that is a bullish indicator for Bitcoin.

[solex]

I'm waiting for the next world financial crisis first before I even think of selling my coins.

When people run from fiat it will be epic...

We don't have to wait. I've got the popcorn out for Venezuela already, and Argentina is next on the timetable.

[hdbuck]

I'm waiting for the next world financial crisis first before I even think of selling my coins.

When people run from fiat it will be epic...

We don't have to wait. I've got the popcorn out for Venezuela already, and Argentina is next on the timetable.

greece, italy, portugal, spain at the corner too.

[Melbustus]

I'm waiting for the next world financial crisis first before I even think of selling my coins.

When people run from fiat it will be epic...

We don't have to wait. I've got the popcorn out for Venezuela already, and Argentina is next on the timetable.

greece, italy, spain portugal at the corner too.

Yeah, even Krugman no longer sees a "non-catastrophic" way out for Europe: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/europanic-2-0/

[hdbuck]

I'm waiting for the next world financial crisis first before I even think of selling my coins.

When people run from fiat it will be epic...

We don't have to wait. I've got the popcorn out for Venezuela already, and Argentina is next on the timetable.

greece, italy, spain portugal at the corner too.

Yeah, even Krugman no longer sees a "non-catastrophic" way out for Europe: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/10/11/europanic-2-0/

im from the eurozone, and i found this sham pretty amazing. beats the dolla imo.

[hdbuck]

The Calm Before The Storm In The Gold Market:

On November 30, Swiss citizens will go to the polls to vote on three areas; whether or not the Swiss National Bank should increase its gold reserves to 20%, that the central bank should stop selling its gold and that all its gold should be held within the country. If by any chance the Swiss people votes in favor I expect major tremors in the gold market. Just the fact that Switzerland will have to buy a large amount of gold to reach the 20% will have a major psychological effect on the gold market not to mention also the snowball effect it will have on other countries. Switzerland is a very small country but with a long history of gold ownership. A vote in favor in the Swiss Gold Initiative referendum would mean that Switzerland would have to buy 1,700 tonnes of gold. This represents 70% of annual world gold production. The Swiss National Bank has 5 years to acquire the 1,700 tonnes if the initiative passes.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-10/calm-storm-gold-market

[NewLiberty]

I'm waiting for the next world financial crisis first before I even think of selling my coins.

When people run from fiat it will be epic...

We don't have to wait. I've got the popcorn out for Venezuela already, and Argentina is next on the timetable.

Don't forget Ecuador in that region.  They are outlawing Bitcoin altogether and releasing a state sponsored cryptocurrency.  Their state currency today is at about 55% inflation per annum.
>50% per month is consider hyperinflation, so the clock is running for them.  With their weakening currency, and the strengthening dollar, they are on the path of currency failure, so this will be interesting.

Either way if their state crypto works or fails it will be bullish for bitcoin.  Bitcoin will be in Ecuador, it just won't be legal, which will allow the state to seize any they find as contraband.  (much easier said than done)

[solex]

I'm waiting for the next world financial crisis first before I even think of selling my coins.

When people run from fiat it will be epic...

We don't have to wait. I've got the popcorn out for Venezuela already, and Argentina is next on the timetable.

Don't forget Ecuador in that region.  They are outlawing Bitcoin altogether and releasing a state sponsored cryptocurrency.  Their state currency today is at about 55% inflation per annum.
>50% per month is consider hyperinflation, so the clock is running for them.  With their weakening currency, and the strengthening dollar, they are on the path of currency failure, so this will be interesting.

Either way if their state crypto works or fails it will be bullish for bitcoin.  Bitcoin will be in Ecuador, it just won't be legal, which will allow the state to seize any they find as contraband.  (much easier said than done)

Just seen this, trialing it in November. Wonder how they wrote all the software so fast.. 
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/worlds-first-national-digital-currency-trials-ecuador/

[cypherdoc]

Nice bid walls

[Cortex7]

I'm waiting for the next world financial crisis first before I even think of selling my coins.

When people run from fiat it will be epic...

We don't have to wait. I've got the popcorn out for Venezuela already, and Argentina is next on the timetable.

Don't forget Ecuador in that region.  They are outlawing Bitcoin altogether and releasing a state sponsored cryptocurrency.  Their state currency today is at about 55% inflation per annum.
>50% per month is consider hyperinflation, so the clock is running for them.  With their weakening currency, and the strengthening dollar, they are on the path of currency failure, so this will be interesting.

Either way if their state crypto works or fails it will be bullish for bitcoin.  Bitcoin will be in Ecuador, it just won't be legal, which will allow the state to seize any they find as contraband.  (much easier said than done)

Just seen this, trialing it in November. Wonder how they wrote all the software so fast..  
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/worlds-first-national-digital-currency-trials-ecuador/

You already know ... Just forked satoshis code, probably swapped out SHA256 for whirlpool or something and just run the whole thing on one cluster.

centralized == fail, I suppose it's cheaper than printing notes though.

[FNG]

For some perspective on how small bitcoin currently is

"The world’s 400 richest people lost $70.2 billion from their collective net worth this week amid a global selloff that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its biggest weekly drop in two years."

"John Paulson, founder of New York-based Paulson & Co., dropped $1.5 billion after his funds declined as much as 11 percent last month. "

"Global equities have lost $3.5 trillion in value since reaching a record last month."

"Elon Musk lost $755 million after his Tesla Motors Inc. fell the most in three weeks yesterday after unveiling an all-wheel drive Model S and driver-assisting tools"

"Bill Gates remains the world’s richest person with a net worth of $81.8 billion. The 58-year-old Microsoft Corp. co-founder dropped $2.8 billion this week as the Redmond, Washington-based software maker tumbled 4.5 percent."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/world-s-richest-people-lose-70-billion-as-musk-falters.html?cmpid=yhoo

[cypherdoc]

The Selfish Mining Attack:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/521321978037555200

Until Emin releases his code hack and it is found to be valid in practice, I think he should stop making public appearances with talks that essentially scare Bitcoin miners.  This is what occurred this weekend at Hashers United. 

[Wekkel]

For some perspective on how small bitcoin currently is

A real hype hasn't even occurred yet 

[Melbustus]

The Selfish Mining Attack:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/521321978037555200

Until Emin releases his code hack and it is found to be valid in practice, I think he should stop making public appearances with talks that essentially scare Bitcoin miners.  This is what occurred this weekend at Hashers United. 

Yeah, the problem is the degree to which he's beat the "doom" drum about this. Academics are often prone to the "it's not perfect, therefore it's crap" attitude, which is annoying (and naive). That said, the sooner academically-verified issues, including SM, are addressed, the better.

[cypherdoc]

The Selfish Mining Attack:

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/521321978037555200

Until Emin releases his code hack and it is found to be valid in practice, I think he should stop making public appearances with talks that essentially scare Bitcoin miners.  This is what occurred this weekend at Hashers United.  

Yeah, the problem is the degree to which he's beat the "doom" drum about this. Academics are often prone to the "it's not perfect, therefore it's crap" attitude, which is annoying (and naive). That said, the sooner academically-verified issues, including SM, are addressed, the better.

he's using a very lame excuse that he doesn't want to be overly criticized on bitcointalk if he releases his code that supposedly leads to Bitcoiner's losing money.

yet he doesn't realize he's costing Bitcoiner's money by talking in public about what he's sure is a fundamental flaw in mining.  yet, the only reason he has confidence to talk in public is b/c his hack has not been thoroughly vetted. he doesn't want to have his code hack vetted by the world community at large like the hackers of the Heartbleed and Bash bug were willing to do.  his hack has been buried for almost a year.  we need to get this out and once and for all bury this festering doubt.

the other way he causes Bitcoiner's to lose money is to the degree that altscam investors believe him.  i saw this firsthand this weekend.  "oh see, Bitcoin has this major flaw therefore i will invest in this altcoin".  he claims his hack has been vetted by a few core devs.  that may or many not be.  that's still not equivalent to releasing it into the wild for vetting according to open source principles.

[justusranvier]

he's using a very lame excuse that he doesn't want to be overly criticized on bitcointalk if he releases his code that supposedly leads to Bitcoiner's losing money.

This is the same douchebag who announced his finding by saying "OMG Bitcoin is going to zero sell all your coins!!!" (paraphrased) on Twitter, right?

[justusranvier]

Found it: http://nakamotoinstitute.org/the-skeptics/

[cypherdoc]

Found it: http://nakamotoinstitute.org/the-skeptics/

I wasn't aware of any of that.