cypherdoc (OP)
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October 08, 2014, 11:49:26 PM |
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No offense, but you're such a conspiracy nut often times.  that's a funny accusation coming from you, the original 2011 conspiracy nut. a time when i was denouncing it: The Manipulator |
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Peter R
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October 09, 2014, 12:24:35 AM
Last edit: October 09, 2014, 12:37:01 AM by Peter R |
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My quick and dirty valuation of BTC in 2020 is also based on M2. Not completely incomprehensible that BTC could be 5% of M2 by 2020, or $2300 or so per BTC.
This would imply that you're also predicting a significant change in bitcoin's historical growth rate starting now. What would make you believe that growth would be vastly slower moving forward?  Peter, (correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that dot at about $4000 not $2300) that aside when I say the graph it looked a lot like the Bitcoin inflation curve, giving this meager projection more validity. It got me thinking that the growth in network value and demand with a fixed supply (diminishing inflation) that the relationship would decouple over time as the price would rise as supply shrinks, and that wasn't evident in your model. I guess that is what Marcus was thinking here by using the market cap which accommodates inflation.  Total BTC value (CAP) and number BTC TXS squared excluding popular addresses (with a simple exponential fit line). Data from Blockchain.info. On current trend of ~4years, CAP ~$100 billion Aug. 2015, $1 Trillion Aug. 2016 (after next halving) ... unless TXS hit some limit. Adrian, the Metcalfe value charts I plot always use market cap, including this one. I just annotated it with the $2300/BTC prediction made earlier in the thread to visually show the sharp decline in the growth rate that such a prediction implied. Here's the math to explain why the point is at ~$4 x 10^10: In 2020, there should be approximately 18 million or so coins: (18x10^6 BTC) x ($2300/BTC) ~ $42 billion ~ $4x10^10, as indicated. So, yes, the chart is correct. |
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blaaaaacksuit
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Who cares?
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October 09, 2014, 12:52:37 AM |
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Yea I was listening to that during bearwhales final hour, I felt really bad for that guy, twitter was just laughing in his face. |
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Adrian-x
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October 09, 2014, 01:30:44 AM |
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Just wow, I thought this went very well. |
Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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Adrian-x
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October 09, 2014, 01:46:34 AM |
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Adrian, the Metcalfe value charts I plot always use market cap, including this one. I just annotated it with the $2300/BTC prediction made earlier in the thread to visually show the sharp decline in the growth rate that such a prediction implied.
Here's the math to explain why the point is at ~$4 x 10^10:
In 2020, there should be approximately 18 million or so coins: (18x10^6 BTC) x ($2300/BTC) ~ $42 billion ~ $4x10^10, as indicated. So, yes, the chart is correct.
Thanks I've got it. On that point do you see the model scaling while Bitcoins become more scarce? I guess it will as any huge deviation would encourage either spending or saving. |
Thank me in Bits 12MwnzxtprG2mHm3rKdgi7NmJKCypsMMQw
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cypherdoc (OP)
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Activity: 1764
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October 09, 2014, 02:22:10 AM |
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Just wow, I thought this went very well. why can't i open the *.wmv file? |
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cypherdoc (OP)
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Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
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October 09, 2014, 02:55:21 AM |
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sidhujag
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Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
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October 09, 2014, 02:56:57 AM |
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Just wow, I thought this went very well. Yea he nailed it |
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vuduchyld
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October 09, 2014, 02:57:20 AM |
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That's great info, cypherdoc!
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bitrider
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October 09, 2014, 03:13:54 AM |
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Just wow, I thought this went very well. Yes, an amazing performance. He rocked it! Very bull.  |
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cypherdoc (OP)
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Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
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October 09, 2014, 03:23:15 AM |
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thx, converting to mp3 to listen on my way to Hasher's United. |
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NewLiberty
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Activity: 1204
Merit: 1002
Gresham's Lawyer
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October 09, 2014, 04:19:34 AM |
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Loaded == Pantera guy
I'd have guessed he's Exante, Pantera is late to the party. |
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Bagatell
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October 09, 2014, 07:06:26 AM |
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No offense, but you're such a conspiracy nut often times. that's a funny accusation coming from you, the original 2011 conspiracy nut. a time when i was denouncing it: The ManipulatorTinfoil - the new gold! |
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ErisDiscordia
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Imposition of ORder = Escalation of Chaos
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October 09, 2014, 07:44:32 AM |
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Further anecdotal evidence providing support for cypherdocs theory: this is Bitstamp cold storage address, which now reveal something interesting, these last transactions were made to refill the hot wallet so people who bought that 30K wall can withdraw their coins, but this is not the interesting thing, however there were only 148K BTC in that wallet a couple of weeks back, so this means the owner of the wall already had his coins at stamp all the time and he didn't send them there like some guys suggested here. what is interesting, or rather annoying is that even after Gox people still leave their coins at exchanges... I like a good (conspiracy) theory and this one makes a lot of sense! |
It's all bullshit. But bullshit makes the flowers grow and that's beautiful.
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shields
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October 09, 2014, 08:30:46 AM |
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WTF, this guy's been on TV doing interviews about Bitcoin in the past, and now he thinks it's finished because of a moderate (in the grand scheme of things) short-term drop in price. |
If you liked this post -> 1KRYhandiYsjecZw7mtdLnoeuKUYoGRkH4
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cypherdoc (OP)
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Merit: 1002
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October 09, 2014, 08:37:12 AM |
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WTF, this guy's been on TV doing interviews about Bitcoin in the past, and now he thinks it's finished because of a moderate (in the grand scheme of things) short-term drop in price. Yup. Bitcoin up 21% since he recorded that aka capitulated. Most ppl investing in cryptocurrencies are going to lose money-cypherdoc David is no exception. |
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