Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[Melbustus]

...
no, if there indeed was manipulation, the easiest and most straight forward way to do it would be to keep selling small and large chunks of BTC at the market over a 4 mo time all the while waiting with a large chunk of fiat on the #1 exchange that you happen to own waiting for a weak BTC loaded whale to panic dump.

if anyone knows of any addresses that are owned by Bitstamp and Pantera, those would be an interesting place to start looking for confirmatory movements or accumulations of BTC.

One thing I don't like about the Pantera theory - they seem to be legit bulls; believers in bitcoin's potential to help the world. So a willingness to relentlessly sell-down the market over a period of months, hurting otherwise rising confidence and positive public attention, doesn't quite fit. Unless they had some theory about the market being "overheated" and needing a "healthy" long correction or some such....but I doubt it.

Anyways, not saying it's impossible. Profit motives trumping ideals isn't exactly a special phenomenon.

[1714203467]

1714203467

[1714203467]

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[1714203467]

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[Hunyadi]

bearwahl

Dr. Bearwahl, I presume.

[Melbustus]

One thing I don't like about the Pantera theory - they seem to be legit bulls; believers in bitcoin's potential to help the world. So a willingness to relentlessly sell-down the market over a period of months, hurting otherwise rising confidence and positive public attention, doesn't quite fit. Unless they had some theory about the market being "overheated" and needing a "healthy" long correction or some such....but I doubt it.

Anyways, not saying it's impossible. Profit motives trumping ideals isn't exactly a special phenomenon.

Bullish enough to believe that there is no such thing as hurting Bitcoin's image and doing everything you can to get more while there is still time!

Heh. Possibly. That $4.2M target was indeed extreme.

[brg444]

...
no, if there indeed was manipulation, the easiest and most straight forward way to do it would be to keep selling small and large chunks of BTC at the market over a 4 mo time all the while waiting with a large chunk of fiat on the #1 exchange that you happen to own waiting for a weak BTC loaded whale to panic dump.

if anyone knows of any addresses that are owned by Bitstamp and Pantera, those would be an interesting place to start looking for confirmatory movements or accumulations of BTC.

One thing I don't like about the Pantera theory - they seem to be legit bulls; believers in bitcoin's potential to help the world. So a willingness to relentlessly sell-down the market over a period of months, hurting otherwise rising confidence and positive public attention, doesn't quite fit. Unless they had some theory about the market being "overheated" and needing a "healthy" long correction or some such....but I doubt it.

Anyways, not saying it's impossible. Profit motives trumping ideals isn't exactly a special phenomenon.

Also hurting their accredited investors' confidence

[cypherdoc]

Dow - 321

[rocks]

...
no, if there indeed was manipulation, the easiest and most straight forward way to do it would be to keep selling small and large chunks of BTC at the market over a 4 mo time all the while waiting with a large chunk of fiat on the #1 exchange that you happen to own waiting for a weak BTC loaded whale to panic dump.

if anyone knows of any addresses that are owned by Bitstamp and Pantera, those would be an interesting place to start looking for confirmatory movements or accumulations of BTC.

The part I find difficult about this theory is the strategy of selling a large percentage of your coins with the hope of re-buying later to double your holdings has failed throughout most of bitcoin's history. Rarely one has been able to get lucky and time it right to successfully gain a double. Instead most of the time the price has unexpectedly run +10x causing a massive loss denominated in BTC if your timing wasn't perfect.

Bearwhale dumped 0.2% of all coins in existence onto the market over a short period, and the market brought in a ton of fresh money to buy them all at $300, indicating what I believe is a price level where the market will continue to add fresh funds.

The problem with dumping BTC to drop the price and buy back lower, is you never know what this price level is where other participants will add in fresh money and raise the price.

Instead, I think the most likely reason for the 2014 weakness is simply that the price ran up 100x in the preceding year.  Many people were sitting on massive gains and the most sensible thing for them to do was to sell some of those gains to lock in life changing items such as buying a house.

If you consider people's past holdings, 2014 might have seen a few Million BTC being sold by early adopters re-balancing their savings in addition to the 1.3M coins created in 2014. I suspect this rebalancing process might be nearing completion with bearwhale's capitulation, which will relieve selling pressure allowing the price to continue now.

[solex]

rocks, Great summary of the historical long-term situation. I agree 100%.

Looking forward now, 20 months to the next halving, the assumption might be that this event is priced in. And should be, but whatever floor is under the price in the run-up to 12.5 btc blocks, will certainly hold, because new money pouring in will then be chasing coins that are unavailable at anything like the current price.

[cypherdoc]

Not saying it did happen,  just saying a  unique condition is in place for them to take advantage. The fact that Ron Glantz & Pantera Capital follow me on Twitter I suppose should be flattering but I remain suspicious of the timing of selloffs with many of my posts.

 Not to mention the somewhat irresponsible price projections and republishing of the $4.2M projection 2d after the selloff and the disappearance of trolls.

Oh well.  

[cypherdoc]

rocks,  the only thing I'd  say there is that liquidity has been extra tight since gox went down.  The AML/KYC stuff has stopped alot of people from creating accounts. This happened to me until Circle only this last week.

Pantera can presumably see into the order book.  Maybe. They have lots of coin. Would they take advantage of the situation? Who knows.

[blaaaaacksuit]

You guys are watching this right? http://www.onlinevideoservice.com/clients/cftc/video.htm?eventid=cftclive

[Adrian-x]

...

The problem with dumping BTC to drop the price and buy back lower, is you never know what this price level is where other participants will add in fresh money and raise the price...

It's my view if you're still a big player in the game you're goal is to gain wealth and see Bitcoin succeeded. Dumping to buy back lower is a strategy but not the best growth strategy. From my perch when economic energy is spreading, and an ultimate success criteria is spreading the adoption there is an economic advantage to dump and buy back at a loss if your overall holdings are more valuable even when you have less coins, on the positive side one ends up with energy to affect to price upwards.

Not that this is happening but it's expected to happen either by mistake or by deliberation. The end goal is maximizing adoption on a normal distribution curve.

If this was Pantera, and it could be I hope they're not leveraging over at bitfinex. That's going to add another layer of complexity.

[Adrian-x]

If this was Pantera, and it could be I hope they're not leveraging over at bitfinex. That's going to add another layer of complexity.

You way early guys have you chances at cheap coins, now the wealthy USD guys are using their resources to amass coins - in the end we are all happy - just give it time.

PATIENCE is what Bitcoiners lack.

Up to now I think we all have a chance at cheap coins as for patients I've managed to hold on to just a little - Bitcoin is a market with ADD.

Hold (just give it time) has been the best strategy, Bitcoin wins but "most in this space will lose money - cypherdoc" ™ holds true. And we're in for more surprises when the incumbents learn how to play.

[Bagatell]

incumbents

They who cannot be named..Antonoplous used the term a number of times in his latest video.

[Pruden]

I remain suspicious of the timing of selloffs with many of my posts.

Or you could be a terrible daytrader during Bitcoin bear markets. 

(Sorry, it was just too tempting, but may it serve as a humbling reminder that it's the market who is right, not you)

[Adrian-x]

incumbents

They who cannot be named..Antonoplous used the term a number of times in his latest video.

They who have the ability to benefit from the existing fiat system at the expense of the whole, rather to numerous to name.

[YogoH]

This CFTC meeting is bullish as fuck!

[blaaaaacksuit]

This CFTC meeting is bullish as fuck!

Seems like everyone is itching to dump

[Melbustus]

This CFTC meeting is bullish as fuck!

The commissioner's closing remarks were indeed quite positive. He prefaced the following by noting that he considered the Professor's (panelist Houman Shadab) remarks about tying assets to the blockchain quite fascinating. He continued:

...
And it just seems like based on what I have learned, some of those applications could be so compelling that it would be a real mistake for us as a commission to not make sure we are staying on top of these development's. Not, because we want to do anything other than understand the developments because it seems like this protocol, the Bitcoin protocol or something like it is very, very likely here to stay.
So the more information and education we can do on this now in trying to stay somewhere on the appropriate spot of the learning curve, it seems to be a very sensible thing to do.
So I think that it has been very, very helpful

Edit: And as usual, Jerry Brito nailed it. He dealt with a lot of the really annoying and difficult questions like how to explain the implications of "open source", or "mining", or "is it a currency or commodity" to regulators. I don't envy the job of trying to distill a topic which takes *months* for smart people to understanding into a 30 second summary, on the spot.

[iCEBREAKER]

The fact that people will manipulate financial markets for fun and profit is evident by the last 100 years of history.  People are in jail for doing so in regulated markets.

Government regulation is the worst form of manipulation.  Only force and fraud should be a reason to jail people.

Have you failed to notice that as regulatory capture deepens, the manipulation gets worse?

The captured regulators you so cherish deserve longer sentences than the more honest criminals who do not act under color of law.

Your domesticated, anti-market attitude is the reason we suffer under TBTF and TBTJ, and the other unintended consequences of forcing the invisible hand.  Enjoy the rotten fruit of your good intentions!   

[solex]

Alarm bells have got to be ringing on this SNAFU (and a much higher inflation rate imminent)



Federal Reserve balance sheet as a % of GDP